Earnings per share

Earnings per share

Bijal GANDHI

In this article, Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) explains the meaning and calculation of Earnings per Share.

This reading will help you understand the earnings per share in detail with relevant examples.

Introduction

The earnings per share (EPS) indicates the total amount of money that the company earns for each share of its total stock. A high EPS is a good indication as investors will be willing to pay more for each share owing to higher profits and vice versa. There are several methods to derive EPS.

Calculation of EPS

One direct way to calculate EPS is by simply dividing the net income by the number of common stocks that are outstanding for that period of the earnings. To understand the calculation for net income, refer to our blog on Income statement.

A refined way to calculate the EPS would be to adjust both the numerator and denominator. For the numerator, the net income should be adjusted for any dividends paid for preferred shares. For the denominator, a weighted average number of common shares should be taken since the number of outstanding shares tend to vary over time.

Bijal Gandhi

EPS example

Here, we again take the example of LVMH. The French multinational company LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton was founded in 1987. The company headquartered in Paris specializes in luxury goods and stands at a valuation of $329 billion (market capitalization in June 2021). It is a consortium of 75 brands controlled under around 60 subsidies. Here, you can find a snapshot of LVMH Income statement for three years: 2018, 2019 and 2020. The last line highlights the basic and diluted EPS of the group for each of the three years.

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Net income for the group= 4702 millions
Average number of shares= 503,679,272
Basic EPS= 9.33 euros per year.

Basic EPS vs. Diluted EPS

Basic EPS eliminates the dilutive effect of warrants, stock options, convertible debentures, etc. These instruments will increase the total number of outstanding shares if exercised by the holders. For example, warrants when exercised will result in dilution of equity.

Diluted EPS considers all the potential sources of equity dilution and therefore it gives a clear picture of the actual earnings per share. In the above LVMH example, the diluted earnings are derived after adding the dilutive effect of stock option like described below,

Net income for the group= 4,702 millions
Average number of shares outstanding: 503,679,272
Dilutive effect of stock option and bonus share plans: 530,861
Average number of shares after dilution: 504,210,133
Diluted earnings per share: 9.32

How is EPS used?

EPS is one of the best indicators of a company’s profitability and performance. It is a helpful indicator to choose stocks as it is one of the sole metrics that isolates net income to find the earnings for shareholders. A growing or a consistent EPS means that the company creates value for the shareholders while a negative EPS might indicate losses, financial trouble or eroding investor value.

It also helps calculate the price to earnings (PE) ratio where the market price per share is divided by the EPS. This ratio helps understand how much the market is willing to pay for each euro of earnings.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Income statement

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Revenue

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Cost of goods sold

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Income Statement

Income Statement

Bijal GANDHI

In this article, Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) explains briefly the structure of an Income Statement.

This reading will help you understand the structure and the main components of the income statement.

Introduction

Income statement is a financial statement that reports the financial performance of an entity over a specified accounting period. The financial performance is measured by summarizing all income and expenses over a given period. Also known as ‘Profit and Loss’ Statement, the Income statement helps the company have a look at the profits for the year and helps it take financial decisions about costs and revenues. The Income statement is also the basis for the tax institution to compute the income tax that the company has to pay every year. The Income statement also allows shareholders to know the dividends that they can receive from the earnings.

Structure of an income statement

Bijal Gandhi

Main components of an income statement

The income statement may slightly vary sometimes depending upon the type of company and its expenses and income, but the general structure and lines may remain the same.

  • Revenue: Also known as top line, revenue or sales revenue refers to the value of the total quantity sold multiplied by the average price of goods or services sold.
  • Cost of goods sold: The cost of goods sold is the sum of all the direct costs associated with a product or service. For example, labor, materials, equipment, machinery, etc.
  • Gross Profit: Gross profit is derived after subtracting the cost of goods from sales/revenue.
  • Indirect Expenses: Indirect expenses include general, selling, and administrative expenses like marketing, advertisement, salary of employees, office, and stationery, rent, etc.
  • Operating Income: Gross profit less indirect expenses are equal to operating income. It is the firm’s profit before non-operating expenses and income, taxes and interest expenses are subtracted from revenues.
  •  Interest Expenses/Income: Interest expense/income is deducted/added from operating income to derive earnings before tax.
  • Tax: The taxes are deducted from pre-tax income to derive the net income. The taxes can be both current and future. The net income then flows to retained earnings on the balance sheet after deducting dividends.

Example: LVMH

The French multinational company LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton was founded in 1987. The company headquartered in Paris specializes in luxury goods and stands at a valuation of $329 billion (market capitalization in June 2021). It is a consortium of 75 brands controlled under around 60. Here, you can find a snapshot of LVMH Income statement for three years: 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Bijal Gandhi

Most important components of an income statement include:

  • Total Revenue= Sum of Operating and Non-Operating Revenues for the accounting period. ($ 44,651)
  • COGS: Cost of goods Sold is the total cost of sales of the products actually sold. ($15,871)
  • Gross Margin = Net Sales – Total COGS ($28780)
  • Total Expenses = Sum of Operating and Non-Operating Expenses (Marketing and Selling Expenses + General and administrative expenses + Loss from joint Venture = ($ 16,792 + $ 3641 + $ 42= $ 20475)
  • EBT: Earning before taxes = Net Financial Income (Income – Expenses before Taxes). ( – $ 608)
  • Net Income = (Total Revenues and Gains) – (Total Expenses and Loses) = $ 4702

Income statement and Statement of cash flow

It is important to know that Income Statement does not convey the cash inflow and outflow for the year; The Cash Flow Statement is used for this. For example, credit sale is not recorded in the cash flow statement while cash sale is. Credit sale refers to sale for which the customer will make payment in the future while for cash sales the customer makes the payment at the time of purchase.

Conclusion

Income statement is the source to obtain valuable insights about factors responsible for company’s profitability.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Earnings per share

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Revenue

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Cost of goods sold

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Stock split

Stock split

img_SimTrade_Photo1_Raphael_Roero_de_Cortanze

In this article, Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2018-2022) introduces the specificities of stock splits.

Stock split

What a stock split?

A stock split is a decision by a company’s board of directors to increase the total number of shares by issuing more shares to current shareholders. The effect is to divide the existing shares into multiple new shares.
Picture5

For instance, a company with 1 million shares launches a 2-for-1 stock split. Post-stock split, the Number of Outstanding Shares (NOSH) will be 2 million, thus, the company has to issue 1 million new shares. Each existing shareholder will receive an additional issued share for each share he/she already has.

During a stock split, the market capitalization of the company remains the same. In effect, the company has simply issued new shares to existing shareholders, it has not sold those shares (it would have been the case during a capital increase for instance). As the market cap remained the same and the Number of Outstanding Shares doubled during this stock split, the adjusting variable is the stock price. In this case it is divided by 2.

Before the operation, the per share price amounted to:

Screenshot 2021-06-21 at 19.32.33

After the stock split, the per share price amounts to:

Screenshot 2021-06-21 at 19.32.45

In other words, a stock split does not add any real value, because the issued shares are not bought.

Why do companies split their stock?

Stock splits are far from being uncommon. Apple has undergone two stock splits in the last 10 years: the first in 2014 (7-for-1 stock split) and the second in 2020 (4-for-1 stock split, where the share price decreases from $460 to $115). In 2020, Tesla has also decided to go with a 5-for-1 stock split, which reduced the share price from $1,875 to $375. But why do companies resort to stock-splits?

Two main reasons can explain why companies go through splitting their stock:

  • Decrease the stock price: when to stock price is too high, it can be quite expensive to acquire “lots” of shares (lot in the sense of bundle). Splitting the stock reduces the prices, thus allowing more investors to buy the company’s stock.
  • Increase the stock liquidity on the market: a higher number of shares outstanding can result into a higher liquidity for the stock, which makes the stock more attractive for buyers and sellers. Indeed, it allows more flexibility, and provide buying and selling movements from having too much of an impact on the company’s stock price.

Many companies exceed later the price level at which they had previously split their stock, causing them to go through another stock split. For instance, Walmart has split its stock 9 times between 1975 and 1999.

Stock exchanges publish regularly a Stock Splits Calendar, which notifies the market when to expect a split and at what ratio.

Stock split signaling

As we have seen in our example above, a stock-split is supposed to not influence the stock price (besides dividing its price by the stock-split ratio). In reality, a stock-split usually sends a positive signal to the market, as stock-splitting announces higher liquidity and decreased prices. Stock splits also allow companies such as Apple or Tesla to prevent their stock from breaking through the ceiling and make the stock unaffordable.

Reverse stock-split

What is a reverse stock-split

As for a traditional stock split, a reverse stock split is a decision made by a company’s board of directors. Nonetheless, like its name indicates, a reverse stock-split is the opposite of a traditional stock split. The goal is to decrease the total number of shares.

Before the reverse stock split After the reverse stock split

Picture6

In this example, the reverse stock split ratio is 1-for-2 (i.e., 1 new share for 2 existing shares). From the 1 million shares of the company, 0.5 million are destroyed. The Number of Outstanding Shares post-reverse stock-split is thus 0.5 million. As for a traditional stock split, no real value is created or destroyed, the market capitalization remains the same. The adjusting variable is the stock price. In this case, the stock price is multiplied by 2.

Why do companies go through reverse stock-split?

The reverse stock-split procedure is usually used by companies which have a low share price and would like to increase it. Indeed, companies can be delisted from stock exchanges if their stock falls below a certain price per share.

In addition, a reverse stock split can be used to eliminate shareholders that hold fewer than a certain number of shares. For instance, in 2011, Citigroup launched a reverse 1-for-10 split in order to reduce its share volatility and discourage speculator trading.

Useful resources

CNN Why it’s time for Amazon and other quadruple-digit stocks to split

Nasdaq Stock Splits Calendar

The Economic Times What is ‘Stock Split’

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

How does the stock price of a firm change according to the shift of its capital structure?

How does the stock price of a firm change according to the shift of its capital structure?

img_SimTrade_Photo1_Raphael_Roero_de_Cortanze

In this article, Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2018-2022) analyses the effects of the shifts of capital structure on the stock price.

Capital structure and asymmetric information

The capital structure of a firm can be defined as the mix of the company’s debt and equity. Debt can be long-term or short-term. Equity can be common or preferred equity. The capital structure discloses the different sources of funding a firm uses in order to finance its operations and growth. It is usually measured through the gearing ratio: Debt / (Debt + Equity).

Picture2

The overall capital structure of a firm varies across the firm’s life and development through equity or debt issuances. Equity and debt issuance are seen on the balance sheet as an increase on the liabilities side.

Nonetheless, the balance sheet does not reveal the future decisions regarding the capital structure of the firm. Indeed, firms’ managers are suspected to hold information that outside investors and/or the market lack. These information discrepancies between the firm (managers) and the market (investors) are known as “asymmetric information”. Almost all economic transactions involve information asymmetries. These information failures influence the managers’ financial decision, and influence the market perception of the firm, through changes in stock price.

Announcement effects

The debt-equity choice conveys information for two reasons:

  • Managers will avoid increasing the firm’s leverage if the firm could have financial difficulties in the future.
  • Managers are reluctant to issue equity when the stock is thought to be undervalued.

Stock price reactions to capital structure changes are usually the following:

  • Common stock issuance: negative
  • Convertible debt issuance: negative
  • Straight debt: negative but insignificant
  • Bank debt (renewal): positive

Debt issuance

In 1958, Modigliani and Miller stated that in a world without taxes, bankruptcy costs, agency costs and asymmetric information, and in an efficient market, the value of a firm is unaffected by how it is financed. In other word, the choice of capital structure is irrelevant as it does not impact the value of the firm. As a result, debt issuance does not have any impact on the value of the firm according to their theory.

In 1963, Modigliani and Miller adapted their theory by integrating the notion of corporate taxation. In this framework, they show that the value of the levered firm is equal to the value of the unlevered firm plus the present value of the tax savings associated with the tax deductibility of the interests on the debt. In effect, debt conveys a taxable benefit called the “tax shield”.

In our non-Modigliani Miller perfect world, an increase in a firm’s debt ratio is often seen as a positive signal by the market as it shows that the firm managers believe in the firm capacity to generate taxable earnings in the future.

In order to come to this conclusion, Grinblatt and Titman (2002) have explained that firms choose their capital structure by comparing the tax benefit of debt financing and the cost of financial distress.
Picture3
Let us consider two firms, A (unlevered) and B (levered). Firm A has no debt, thus no interest expense, and Firm B has a debt of 100 with a 10% interest rate. A and B have the same EBIT. Through its debt, B has a yearly tax shield of 3 (the tax rate is 30%), meaning that B pays less tax than A which has no debt and then no tax shield.

Nonetheless, the effects of issuing straight debt (a debt which cannot be converted into something else) is negative but insignificant. But renewing bank debt translates into an increase in stock prices. Overall, the announcement of a debt issuance has on average little impact on the stock price, as it shows to the market that the firms:

  • Needs funding
  • Expects taxable income in the future
  • Will pay less tax as it will benefit from a higher tax shield
  • Is financially stable enough to convince banks or investors to lend it money.

Security sales

The table below (from Grinblatt and Titman (2002) summarizes a number of event studies that examine stock price reaction to the announcements of new security issues. It shows that raising capital is considered as a negative signal. For instance, when industrial firms issue common stock, their stock prices decline, on average about 13.1%.

Picture4
This is explained by the “adverse selection theory”, which states that firms are reluctant to issue common equity when the stock is undervalued. Thus, the market often assumes than common equity issuance and overvaluation go hand in hand. The issuing of common equity will thus have a negative effect on stock prices, as the market will think the stock is overvalued. As convertible bonds have a strong equity-like component, Grinblatt and Titman (2002) argue that the “adverse selection theory” can also explain why the market usually reacts negatively to the issuance of convertible bonds.

Pecking order theory

The market reacts favorably to leverage increase and unfavorably to leverage decrease. As a result, firms will use either internal financing (inside equity) or debt to finance their project over outside equity (equity issuance). This is called the “pecking order theory” of capital structure.

The theory of the financial pecking order states that, of the three possible forms of financing for a firm (internal cash flow, debt, equity), a firm will prefer to finance itself from internal cash flow, then debt, and finally, in the last case, by selling equity. This has a practical consequence on the way the company operates: once it has emptied its internal cash flow, it will issue debt. If it can no longer generate debt, it will issue equity.

Myers and Majluf (1984) highlight the consequences of information asymmetry between managers and investors. If the company finances itself with shares, it is because it believes that shares are overvalued and can therefore provide easy and abundant financing. If the company finances itself with debt, it is because it believes that shares are undervalued.

Nonetheless, firms can prefer to resort to equity rather than debt when they are experiencing financial difficulties. Indeed, in case of financial distress, the risk of having to suffer financial distress costs can be greater than the cost of issuing equity. Furthermore, firms can also decide to issue preferred equity in difficult times rather than common equity. In effect, preferred shareholders cannot force a firm into bankruptcy when it fails to meet its dividend obligations (while common shareholders can).

Useful resources

Grinblatt M. and S. Titman (2002) Financial Markets & Corporate Strategy, Second Edition – Chapter 19: The information conveyed by financial decisions.

Myers S.C. and N.S. Majluf (1984) Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have, Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2) 187-221.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Shruti CHAND Balance sheet

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the DCM (Debt Capital Market) analyst’s job…

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the ECM (Equity Capital Market) analyst’s job…

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Dividend policy

Dividend policy

Raphael Roero de Cortanze

In this article, Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2018-2022) analyses the effects of dividend policy on the stock price.

What is a dividend?

Firms that generate earnings through their activities must choose between retaining these earnings (increase in reserves on the liabilities side of the balance sheet) or distributing these earnings to shareholders through paid dividends.

A dividend is a payment from a company to its shareholders. Dividends can take several forms:

Cash: the shareholders receive cash

  • Regular: the most common form of dividend, usually a quarterly cash distribution charged against retained earnings. These regular dividends are an engagement: the board of directors declares a dividend, of a certain amount and for a certain duration. Regular dividends are thus not very flexible: regular dividends are “sticky” as they represent a higher commitment (compared to special dividends or buybacks for instance).
  • Special: a special dividend is a payment made by a company to its shareholders, which the company declares to be separate from the typical recurring dividend cycle
  • Liquidating: a liquidating dividend is a distribution of cash or other assets to shareholders, with a view to shutting down the business. It is paid out after all creditor obligations have been settled

Stock dividend: the shareholders receive stock

A stock dividend is a dividend payment with shares rather than cash. It has the advantage to distribute to shareholders without decreasing the company’s cash balance. Nonetheless, it can dilute earnings per share

Dividend policy

Modigliani Miller: irrelevance of the dividend policy

The first theorem formulated by Modigliani and Miller in 1958 states that in a world without taxes, bankruptcy costs, agency costs and asymmetric information, and in an efficient market, the value of a firm is unaffected by how it is financed. In other word, the choice of capital structure is irrelevant as it does not impact the value of the firm. In the same way, the dividend policy (to pay or not to pay dividends to shareholders) does not affect the value of the firm. Dividend policy is thus irrelevant.

In 1963, Modigliani and Miller adapted this theorem by integrating corporate taxation. In this framework, they show that the value of the levered firm is equal to the value the unlevered firm plus the present value of the tax savings associated with the tax deductibility of the interests on the debt in the income statement (tax shield). With corporate taxation, the capital structure matters as debt is more interesting than equity. But they show that the dividend policy still does not affect the value of the firm. Dividend policy is thus irrelevant.

Signaling

First of all, the stock price is expected to fall after the issuance of a dividend by the amount of the dividend itself. Dividend policy conveys information. Michaely, Thaler and Womack (1995) have demonstrated that the market reacts positively to dividend initiations (when the board of directors declares a dividend) and negatively to omissions (when the board of directors announces it won’t distribute a dividend).

As dividend policy conveys information, managers try to smooth out dividends. Dividends are thus less volatile than earnings: payout ratios (Dividend / Earnings per Share) increase in bad times and decrease in good times.

Example

As an example, General Motor’s dividend per share remained fairly stable between 1985 and 2008, even though its earnings were very volatile.

Picture1
Not all firms pay dividend. Dividend-paying firms are bigger and more profitable. DeAngelo, DeAngelo and Skinner (2004) have shown that dividends have become more concentrated. Indeed, in 1978 in the US, 67% of the total dividends were distributed by the Top 100 dividend-paying firms. In 2000, this proportion increased to 81% (of which 46% in the top 25 players).

Dividends during the COVID-19 crisis

During a financial crisis, it is logical to observe dividend cuts and omissions. Nonetheless, the crisis entailed by the COVID-19 pandemic is notable for the fact these dividend cuts and omissions were found among all firms from all sectors, whereas for instance the financial crisis of 2008 was primarily associated with a sharp drop of dividends across the financial sector (banks, insurance companies, brokers, market infrastructure firms such as stock exchanges, etc.).

In 2020, the pandemic caused a 12% global decline in dividends distribution compared to 2019. Between the second and fourth quarters of 2020, the dividend cuts reached 220 billion US dollars globally. Indeed, firm profitability and debt are determinants of dividend cuts and omissions, especially during crisis.

Nonetheless, part of the global decrease in dividends can be explained by the extraordinary measures taken by governments. In France, the government announced in April 2020 that large companies would be able to benefit from support measures if and only if they undertook not to pay dividends or buy back their shares. Similarly, the Federal Reserve in the US has imposed limits on dividend distribution for US banks and the European Central bank has forbidden to credit institutions (such as banks) to distribute dividends. As financial institutions present a systemic risk, these measures were a way to make sure banks focused on withstanding the economic depression, rather than compensating their shareholders. The Federal Reserve recently declared it would free most banks from the pandemic dividend limits as soon as the large US banks would have cleared the last round of stress tests. As a result, as dividend distribution limitations are lifted and economies return to their long-term trajectory, global dividend distribution is expected to gradually return to normalcy.

Key concepts

Earnings

A company’s earnings refer to its after-tax net income. Located at the bottom of the Income Statement, earnings are also referred as the “bottom line”.

Retained earnings

A company’s retained earnings is the amount of net income (or earnings) left after the company has paid out dividends to its shareholders. Retained earnings remains available for financing the firm business (day-to-day activity, investments, acquisitions of other companies).

Useful resources

Michaely R., R. Thaler and K. Womack (1995) Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift? Journal of Finance, 50(2): 573-608.

DeAngelo H., L. DeAngelo and D. Skinner (2004) Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings, Journal of Financial Economics, 72(3): 425-456.

Krieger K., N. Mauck, S. Pruitt (2020) The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dividends, Finance Research Letters.

Holly Ellyatt (February 21, 2021) Pandemic caused $220 billion of global dividend cuts in 2020, research says CNBC.

Barrons

Bloomberg

Lex Europa

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Options

Options

Akshit GUPTA

This article written by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) presents an introduction to Options.

Introduction

Options is a type of derivative which gives the buyer of the option contract the right, but not the obligation, to buy (for a call option) or sell (for a put option) an underlying asset at a price which is pre-determined, and a date set in the future.

Option contracts can be traded between two or more counterparties either over the counter or on an exchange, where the contracts are listed. Exchange based trading of option contracts was introduced to the larger public in April 1973, when Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)) was introduced in the US. The options market has grown ever since with over 50 exchanges that trade option contracts worldwide.

Terminology used for an option contract

The different terms that are used in an option contract are:

Option Spot price

The option spot price is the price at which the option contract is trading at the time of entering the contract.

Underlying spot price

The underlying spot price is the price at which the underlying asset is trading at the time of entering the option contract.

Strike price

Strike price is essentially the price at which the option buyer can exercise his/her right to buy or sell the option contract at or before the expiration date. The strike price is pre-determined at the time of entering the contract.

Expiration date

The expiration date is the date at which the option contracts ends or after which it becomes void. The expiration date of an option contract can be set to be after weeks, months or year.

Lot size

A lot size is the quantity of the underlying asset contained in an option contract. The size is decided and amended by the exchanges from time to time. For example, an Option contract on an APPLE stock trading on an exchange in USA consists of 100 underlying APPLE stocks.

Option class

Option class is the type of option contracts that the trader is trading on. It can be a Call or a Put option.

Position

The position a trader can hold in an option contract can either be Long or Short depending on the strategy. A Long position essentially means Buying the option and a short position means Selling or writing the option contract.

Option Premium

Option premium is the price at which the option contracts trade in the market.

Benefits of using an option contract

Trading in option contracts gives the traders certain benefits which can be categorised as:

Hedging Benefits

Hedging is an essential benefit of the option contract. For an investor or a trader holding an underlying stock, an option contract provides them with the opportunity to offset their risk exposure by buying or selling an option contract as per their market outlook. If an trader holding stocks of APPLE is bearish about the market and expects the market to fall, he/she can buy a PUT option which essentially gives him/her the right to sell the security at a pre-determined price and date. Such a contract protects the trader from significant losses which he/she might incur if the stock price for APPLE goes down significantly.

Cost Benefits

While buying an option contract, the traders benefits from the leverage effect which exchanges across the world provides. Leverage helps the traders to multiply the size of their holdings with lesser capital investment. This also helps them to earn higher profits by taking limited risks.

Choice Benefits

In traditional trading, traders have a limited degree of flexibility as they can only buy or sell assets based on their outlook. Whereas, Option contracts provides a great choice to the traders as they can take different positions in call and put options (Long and short positions) and for different strikes and maturities.
They can also use different strategies and spreads to execute and manage their positions to earn profits.

Types of option contracts

The option contracts can be broadly classified into two categories: call options and put options.

Call options

A call option is a derivative contract which gives the holder of the option the right, but not an obligation, to buy an underlying asset at a pre-determined price on a certain date. An investor buys a call option when he believes that the price of the underlying asset will increase in value in the future. The price at which the options trade in an exchange is called an option premium and the date on which an option contract expires is called the expiration date or the maturity date.

For example, an investor buys a call option on Apple shares which expires in 1 month and the strike price is $90. The current apple share price is $100. If after 1 month,
The share price of Apple is $110, the investor exercises his rights and buys the Apple shares from the call option seller at $90.

But, if the share prices for Apple falls to $80, the investor doesn’t exercise his right and the option expires because the investor can buy the Apple shares from the open market at $80.

Put options

A put option is a derivative contract which gives the holder of the option the right, but not an obligation, to sell an underlying asset at a pre-determined price on a certain date. An investor buys a put option when he believes that the price of the underlying asset will decrease in value in the future.

For example, an investor buys a put option on Apple shares which expires in 1 month and the strike price is $110. The current apple share price is $100. If after 1 month,
The share price of Apple is $90, the investor exercises his rights and sell the Apple shares to the put option seller at $110.
But, if the share prices for Apple rises to $120, the investor doesn’t exercise his right and the option expires because the investor can sell the Apple shares in the open market at $120.

Different styles of option exercise

The option style doesn’t deal with the geographical location of where they are traded. However, the contracts differ in terms of their expiration time when they can be exercised. The option contracts can be categorized as per different styles they come in. Some of the most common styles of option contracts are:

American options

American style options give the option buyer the right to exercise his option any time prior or up to the expiration date of the contract. These options provide greater flexibility to the option buyer but also comes at a high price as compared to the European style options.

European options

European style options can only be exercised on the expiration or maturity date of the contract. Thus, they offer less flexibility to the option buyer in terms of his rights. However, the European options are cheaper as compared to the American options.

Bermuda options

Bermuda options are a mix of both American and European style options. These options can only be exercised on a specific pre-determined dates up to the expiration date. They are considered to be exotic option contracts and provide limited flexibility to the option buyer to exercise his claim.

Different underlying assets for an option contract

The different underlying assets for an option contract can be:

Individual assets: stocks, bonds

Option traders trading in individual assets can take positions in call or put options for equities and bonds based on the reports provided by the research teams. They can take long or short positions in the option contract. The positions depend on the market trends and individual asset analysis. The option contracts on individual assets are traded in different lot sizes.

Indexes: stock indexes, bond indexes

Options traders can also trade on contracts based on different indexes. These contracts can be traded over the counter or on an exchange. These traders generally follow the macroeconomic trends of different geographies and trade in the indices based on specific markets or sectors. For example, some of the most known exchange traded index options are options written on the CAC 40 index in France, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index in the US, etc.

Foreign currency options

Different banks and investment firms deal in currency hedges to mitigate the risk associated with cross border transactions. Options traders at these firms trade in foreign currency option contracts, which can be over the counter or exchange traded.

Option Positions

Option traders can take different positions depending on the type of option contract they trade. The positions can include:

Long Call

When a trader has a long position in a call option it essentially means that he has bought the call option which gives the trader the right to buy the underlying asset at a pre-determined price and date. The buyer of the call option pays a price to the option seller to buy the right and the price is called the Option Premium. The maximum loss to a call option buyer is restricted to the amount of the option premium he/she pays.

Long Call

With the following notations:
   CT = Call option value at maturity T
   ST = Price of the underlying at maturity T
   K = Strike price of the call option

The graph of the payoff of a long call is depicted below. It gives the value of the long position in a call option at maturity T as a function of the price of the underlying asset at time T.

Payoff of a long position in a call option
Long call

Short Call

When a trader has a short position in a call option it essentially means that he has sold the call option which gives the buyer of the option the right to buy the underlying asset from the seller at a pre-determined price and date. The seller of the call option is also called the option writer and he/she receive a price from the option buyer called the Option Premium. The maximum gain to a call option seller is restricted to the amount of the option premium he/she receives.

Short call

With the following notations:
   CT = Call option value at maturity T
   ST = Price of the underlying at maturity T
   K = Strike price of the call option

The graph of the payoff of a short call is depicted below. It gives the value of the short position in a call option at maturity T as a function of the price of the underlying asset at time T.

Payoff of a short position in a call option
Short call

Long Put

When a trader has a long position in a put option it essentially means that he/she has bought the put option which gives the trader the right to sell the underlying asset at a pre-determined price and date. The buyer of the put option pays a price to the option seller to buy the right and the price is called the Option Premium. The maximum loss to a put option buyer is restricted to the amount of the option premium he/she pays.

Long Put

With the following notations:
   PT = Put option value at maturity T
   ST = Price of the underlying at maturity T
   K = Strike price of the put option

The graph of the payoff of a long put is depicted below. It gives the value of the long position in a put option at maturity T as a function of the price of the underlying asset at time T.

Payoff of a long position in a put option
Long put

Short Put

When a trader has a short position in a put option it essentially means that he has sold the call option which gives the buyer of the option the right to sell the underlying asset from the seller at a pre-determined price and date. The seller of the put option is also called the option writer and he/she receive a price from the option buyer called the Option Premium. The maximum gain to a put option seller is restricted to the amount of the option premium he/she receives.

Short Put

With the following notations:
   PT = Put option value at maturity T
   ST = Price of the underlying at maturity T
   K = Strike price of the put option

The graph of the payoff of a short put is depicted below. It gives the value of the short position in a put option at maturity T as a function of the price of the underlying asset at time T.

Payoff of a short position in a put option
Short put

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Options

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Analysis of the Rogue Trader movie

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA History of Options markets

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Option Trader – Job description

Useful Resources

Academic research

Hull J.C. (2015) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, Ninth Edition, Chapter 10 – Mechanics of options markets, 235-240.

Business analysis

CNBC Live option trading for APPLE stocks

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Forward Contracts

Forward Contracts

Akshit Gupta

This article written by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) introduces Forward contracts.

Introduction

Forward contracts form an essential part of the derivatives world and can be a useful tool in hedging against price fluctuations. A forward contract (or simply a ‘forward’) is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price on a given future date (or the expiration date). The party that will buy the underlying is said to be taking a long position while the party that will sell the asset takes a short position.

The underlying assets for forwards can range from commodities and currencies to various stocks.

Forwards are customized contracts i.e., they can be tailored according to the underlying asset, the quantity and the expiry date of the contract. Forwards are traded over-the-counter (OTC) unlike futures which are traded on centralized exchanges. The contracts are settled on the expiration date with the buyer paying the delivery price (the price agreed upon in the forward contract for the transaction by the parties involved) and the seller delivering the agreed upon quantity of underlying assets in the contract. Unlike option contracts, the parties in forwards are obligated to buy or sell the underlying asset upon the maturity date depending on the position they hold. Generally, there is no upfront cost or premium to be paid when a party enters a forward contract as the payoff is symmetric between the buyer and the seller.

Terminology used for forward contracts

A forward contract includes the following terms:

Underlying asset

A forward contract is a type of a derivative contract. It includes an underlying asset which can be an equity, index, commodity or a foreign currency.

Spot price

A spot price is the market price of the asset when the contract is entered into.

Forward price

A forward price is the agreed upon forward price of the underlying asset when the contract matures.

Maturity date

The maturity date is the date on which the counterparties settle the terms of the contract and the contract essentially expires.

Forward Price vs Spot Price

Forward and spot prices are two essential jargons in the forward market. While the strict definitions of both terms differ in different markets, the basic reference is the same: the spot price (or rate according to the underlying) is the current price of any financial instrument being traded immediately or ‘on the spot’ while the forward price is the price of the instrument at some time in the future, essentially the settlement price if it is traded at a predetermined date in the future. For example, in currency markets, the spot rate would refer to the immediate exchange rate for any currency pair while the forward rate would refer to a future exchange rate agreed upon in forward contracts.

Payoff of a forward contract

The payoff of a forward contract depends on the forward price (F0) and the spot price (ST) at the time of maturity.

Pay-off for a long position

Long Position

Pay-off for a short position

Short Position

With the following notations:
N: Quantity of the underlying assets
ST = Price of the underlying asset at time T
F0 = Forward price at time 0

For example, an investor can enter a forward contract to buy an Apple stock at a forward price of $110 with a maturity date in one month.

If at the maturity date, the spot price of Apple stock is $120, the investor with a long position will gain $10 from the forward contract by buying Apple stock for $110 with a market price of $120. The investor with a short position will lose $10 from the forward contract by selling the apple stock at $110 while the market price of $120.

Figure 1. Payoff for a long position in a forward contract
long forward

Payoff for a short position in a forward contract
Short forward

Use of forward contracts

Forward contracts can be used as a means of hedging or speculation.

Hedging

Traders can be certain of the price at which they will buy or sell the asset. This locked price can prove to be significant especially in industries that frequently experience volatility in prices. Forwards are very commonly used to hedge against exchange rates risk with most banks employing both spot and forward foreign exchange-traders. In a forward currency contract, the buyer hopes the currency to appreciate, while the seller expects the currency to depreciate in the future.

Speculation

Forward contracts can also be used for speculative purposes though it is less common than as forwards are created by two parties and not available for trading on centralized exchanges. If a speculator believes that the future spot price of an asset will be greater than the forward price today, she/he may enter into a long forward position and thus if the viewpoint is correct and the future spot price is greater than the agreed-upon contract price, she/he will gain profits.

Risks Involved

Liquidity Risk

A forward contract cannot be cancelled without the agreement of both counterparties nor can it be transferred to a third party. Thus, the forward contract is neither very liquid nor very marketable.

Counterparty risk

Since forward contracts are not traded on exchanges, they involve high counterparty risk. In these contracts, either of the counterparties can fail to meet their obligation resulting in a default.

Regulatory risk

A forward contract is traded over the counter due to which they are not regulated by any authority. This leads to high regulatory risk since it is entered with mutual consent between two or more counterparties.

Related posts in the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Futures contract

Useful Resources

Hull J.C. (2015) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, Ninth Edition, Chapter 1 – Introduction, 23-43.

Hull J.C. (2015) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, Ninth Edition, Chapter 5 – Determination of forward and futures prices, 126-152.

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

History of Options Markets

History of the options markets

Akshit Gupta

This article written by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) presents an introduction to the History of the Options markets.

Introduction

Options are a type of derivative contracts which give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying security at a pre-determined price and date. These contracts can either be traded over-the-counter (OTC) through dealer or broker network or can be traded over an exchange in a standardized form.

A brief history

The history of the use of options can be dated back to ancient times. In early 4th century BC, a philosopher, and an astronomer, named Thales of Miletus calculated a surplus olive harvest in his region during the period. He predicted an increase in demand for the olive presses due to an increase in the harvest. To benefit from his prediction, he bought the rights to use the olive presses in his region by paying a certain sum. The olive harvest saw a significant surplus that year and the demand for olive presses rose, as predicted by him. He then exercised his option and sold the rights to use the olive presses at a much higher prices than what he actually paid, making a good profit. This is the first documented account of the use of option contracts dating back to 4th century BC.

The use of option contracts was also seen during the Tulip mania of 1636. The tulip producers used to sell call options to the investors when the tulip bulbs were planted. The investors had the right to buy the tulips, when they were ready for harvest, at a price pre-determined while buying the call option. However, since the markets were highly unstandardized, the producers could default on their obligations.
But the event laid a strong foundation for the use of option contracts in the future.

Until 1970s, option contracts were traded over-the-counter (OTC) between investors. However, these contracts were highly unstandardized leading to investor distrust and illiquidity in the market.

In 1973, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)) was formed in USA, laying the first standardized foundation in options trading. In 1975, the Options clearing corporation (OCC) was formed to act as a central clearing house for all the option contracts that were traded on the exchange. With the introduction of these 2 important bodies, the option trading became highly standardized and general public gained access to it. However, the Put options were introduced only in 1977 by CBOE. Prior to that, only Call options were traded on the exchange.

With the advent of time, options market grew significantly with more exchanges opening up across the world. The option pricing models, and risk management strategies also became more sophisticated and complex.

Market participants

The participants in the options markets can be broadly classified into following groups:

  • Market makers: A market maker is a market participant in the financial markets that simultaneously buys and sells quantities of any option contract by posting limit orders. The market maker posts limit orders in the market and profits from the bid-ask spread, which is the difference by which the ask price exceeds the bid price. They play a significant role in the market by providing liquidity.
  • Margin traders: Margin traders are market participants who make use of the leverage factor to invest in the options markets and increase their position size to earn significant profits. But this trading style is highly speculative and can also lead to high losses due to the leverage effect.
  • Hedgers: Investors who try to reduce their exposure in the financial markets by using hedging strategies are called hedgers. Hedgers often trades in derivative products to offset their risk exposure in the underlying assets. For example, a hedger who is bearish about the market and has shares of Apple, will buy a Put option on the shares of Apple. Thus, he has the right to sell the shares at a high price if the market price for apple shares goes down.
  • Speculators: Speculative investors are involved in option trading to take advantage of market movements. They usually speculative on the price of an underlying asset and account for a significant share in option trading.

Types of option contracts

The option contracts can be broadly classified into two main categories, namely:

Call options

A call option is a derivative contract which gives the holder of the option the right, but not an obligation, to buy an underlying asset at a pre-determined price on a certain date. An investor buys a call option when he believes that the price of the underlying asset will increase in value in the future. The price at which the options trade in an exchange is called an option premium and the date on which an option contract expires is called the expiration date or the maturity date.

For example, an investor buys a call option on Apple shares which expires in 1 month and the strike price is $90. The current apple share price is $100. If after 1 month,
The share price of Apple is $110, the investor exercises his rights and buys the Apple shares from the call option seller at $90.

But, if the share prices for Apple falls to $80, the investor doesn’t exercise his right and the option expires because the investor can buy the Apple shares from the open market at $80.

Put options

A put option is a derivative contract which gives the holder of the option the right, but not an obligation, to sell an underlying asset at a pre-determined price on a certain date. An investor buys a put option when he believes that the price of the underlying asset will decrease in value in the future.

For example, an investor buys a put option on Apple shares which expires in 1 month and the strike price is $110. The current apple share price is $100. If after 1 month,

The share price of Apple is $90, the investor exercises his rights and sell the Apple shares to the put option seller at $110.

But, if the share prices for Apple rises to $120, the investor doesn’t exercise his right and the option expires because the investor can sell the Apple shares in the open market at $120.

Different style of options

The option style doesn’t deal with the geographical location of where they are traded. However, the contracts differ in terms of their expiration time when they can be exercised. The option contracts can be categorized as per different styles they come in. Some of the most common styles of option contracts are:

American options

American style options give the option buyer the right to exercise his option any time prior or up to the expiration date of the contract. These options provide greater flexibility to the option buyer but also comes at a high price as compared to the European style options.

European options

European style options can only be exercised on the expiration or maturity date of the contract. Thus, they offer less flexibility to the option buyer in terms of his rights. However, the European options are cheaper as compared to the American options.

Bermuda options

Bermuda options are a mix of both American and European style options. These options can only be exercised on a specific pre-determined dates up to the expiration date. They are considered to be exotic option contracts and provide limited flexibility to the option buyer to exercise his claim.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about options

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Analysis of the Rogue Trader movie

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Market maker – Job description

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Tulip mania of 1636

Useful Resources

Chapter 10 – Mechanics of options markets, pg. 235-240, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives by John C. Hull, Ninth Edition

Wikipedia Options (Finance)

The Street A Brief History of Stock Options

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Government debt

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT introduces you to government debt.

A government debt is a debt issued and guaranteed by a government. It is then owed in the form of bonds bought by investors (institutional investors, individual investors, other governments, etc.).

According to the OECD: “Debt is calculated as the sum of the following liability categories (as applicable): currency and deposits; debt securities, loans; insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts payable.”

Before the Covid-19 crisis, the government debt of all countries in the world was estimated at $53 trillion. According to the IMF, it is expected to rise from 83% to 96% of world GDP as a result of the crisis.

In order to better understand debt, it is necessary to go back to several points. How does a government issue debt? Who holds government debt? How is government debt measured?

How does a government issue debt?

There are two principal ways to issue bonds: syndication and auction.

Syndication

Syndication is the most common way to issue debt. It is when several financial institutions join together to ensure the placement of a bond with investors in order to reduce their risk exposure. However, since the 1980’s, governments tend to use the auction method.

Auction

The auction can be “open”, i.e. all direct participants in public securities auctions (credit institutions, management and intermediation companies, etc.) have the possibility of acquiring part of the security put up for auction. It can also be “targeted”, i.e. the issue is reserved only for the primary dealers – banks or other financial institutions that has been approved to trade securities – of the issuing State.

A few days before the planned date of an auction, the State makes an announcement, confirming, postponing or cancelling the operation. It also gives the characteristics of the securities to be issued, i.e. the type of securities, the maturity and the amount it wishes to raise. Buyers can then submit several bids, each specifying the desired quantity and price. The issue lines are then auctioned to the highest bidders. The higher the demand is, the lower the issue rate is.

Auction is used because it provides investors, among other things, with transparency and free competition on an investment product with an attractive benefit in relation to a low risk level.

Each country that issues bonds uses different terms for them. UK government bonds, for example, are referred to as gilts. In the US, they are referred to as treasuries: T-bills (that expire in less than one year), T-notes (that expire in one to ten years) and T-bonds (that expire in more than ten years). In France, the government issues short-term liabilities (“Bons du Trésor”) and long-term liabilities (“OAT for “Obligations Assimilables du Trésor”) with maturity between 2 and 50 years.

Who holds government debt?

Government debt can be broken down into domestic and external debt depending on whether the creditors are residents or non-residents.

Domestic debt

Domestic debt refers to all claims held by economic agents (households, companies, financial institutions) resident in a sovereign state on that state. It is mostly denominated in the national currency. A government can call for savings, but savings used to finance the deficit can no longer be used to finance private activity and in particular productive investment. This is known as the crowding-out effect. A government must therefore deal with this limit.

External debt

External debt refers to all debts owed to foreign lenders. A distinction must be made between gross external debt (what a country borrows from abroad) and net external debt (the difference between what a country borrows from abroad and what it lends abroad). A level of debt that is too high can be dangerous for a country. In the event of fluctuations in the national currency, the interest and principal amounts of the external debt, if denominated in foreign currency, can quickly become a burden leading to default.

The case of France

In France, non-residents are the main holders of French public debt. They hold 64% of the bonds issued by the government. They are institutional investors, but also sovereign investment funds, banks and even hedge funds. In addition, as regards domestic debt, French insurance companies hold nearly 20% of French securities. They are used for life insurance investments. Finally, French banks and French mutual funds hold 10% and 2% respectively.

How to measure government debt?

While the French debt has risen from 2000 billion euros in 2014 to 2700 billion in 2021, the debt burden has fallen from 40 billion to 30 billion. What do these two ways of looking at a country’s debt mean?

In the European Union, the current measure of public debt is the one adopted by the Maastricht Treaty. It takes into account the nominal amount borrowed. This is a relevant criterion for measuring the government’s budgetary misalignments, i.e. its financing needs. It also makes it possible to introduce debt rules: the debt must be less than 60% of GDP.

Another way of measuring debt is to take into account the interest charges on public debt. This criterion makes it possible to account for the cost of the debt and not its amount. It is this criterion that must be considered in order to anticipate future financing needs, to plan taxes and interest charges in the government budget.

Useful resources

Rating agencies

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch Rating

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Why do governments issue debt?

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond valuation

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond markets

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit Rating

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Georges WAUBERT (ESSEC Business School, i>Grande Ecole – Master in Management, 2019-2023).

Examples of companies issuing bonds

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT provides you with examples of companies issuing bonds.

In order to better understand corporate bonds, it is appropriate to look at recent issues to see their different characteristics: Veolia, Essilorluxottica and LVMH.

Véolia: EUR 700 million 6-year bond issuance with negative interest rate

The company

Veolia is a French multinational utility company. It markets water, waste and energy management services for local authorities and companies.

It employs more than 163,000 employees and had revenues of €27 billion in 2019.

The company recently made headlines in the financial news with its takeover bid for Suez. After months of financial, political and media battle, the French giants finally agreed on a merger. The new group is expected to have a 5% share of the world market with 230,000 employees.

The bond issuance

On Monday, January 11, 2021, Veolia issued €700 million of bonds maturing in January 2027 at a negative rate of -0.021%.

This is the first time that a BBB-rated issuer has obtained a negative rate for this maturity. This was due to strong demand from investors who welcomed the transaction. As a result, the order book reached up to 2 billion euros, which allowed for a negative yield. This reflects the very positive perception of Veolia, as well as the credibility of its proposed merger with Suez.

This example is quite symptomatic of the low-rate period we are currently in. Indeed, we see here that a company can take on debt at negative rates.

Essilorluxottica: €3 billion bond issuance

The company

EssilorLuxottica is a Franco-Italian multinational company, resulting from the 2018 merger of the French company Essilor and the Italian company Luxottica. It is one of the leading groups in the design, production and marketing of ophthalmic lenses, optical equipment, prescription glasses and sunglasses.

The group employs more than 153,000 people and had sales of EUR 14 billion in 2002.

The bond issuance

On Thursday, May 28, 2020, EssilorLuxottica issued €3 billion of bonds. The bonds have maturities of 3.6 years, 5.6 years and 8 years, with rates of 0.25%, 0.375% and 0.5% respectively.

Demand was very high as the order book reached almost 11 billion euros, reflecting investors’ confidence in EssilorLuxottica’s model.

This example allows us to notice that during an issue, bonds of different maturities can be issued at the same time. This allows us to respond adequately to financing needs by allowing us to play on the maturity and therefore on the rates. Here, the rates increase with time. In fact, outside of recessionary periods, this correlation is observed because the risks for investors increase with time. In the same way, their money is immobilized for a longer period of time and therefore must be remunerated for that.

LVMH: 9.3-billion-euro bond issuance

The company

LVMH is a French group of companies, today a world leader in the luxury goods industry. The firm has a portfolio of seventy brands including Moët, Hennessy, Louis Vuitton, Dior, Céline, …

The group employs more than 163,000 employees and had a turnover of 53 billion euros in 2019.

Announced in November 2019, then canceled because of Covid-19, the takeover of Tiffany finally took place in January 2021 for a total amount of $ 15.8 billion.

The bond issuance

On February 6, 2020, LVMH issued €9.3 billion in bonds, denominated in euros and pounds sterling. This was the largest bond issue in Europe since AB inBev in 2016. The maturities of the bonds issued range up to 11 years with a yield of 0.45%. Some tranches, including the four-year euro tranche, have a negative yield. The overall cost of this financing is estimated at 0.05%.

The purpose of this issue was to refinance the acquisition of Tiffany. It received strong interest from investors with an order book of nearly 23 billion euros. In addition, LVMH benefited from very favorable market conditions. Indeed, January had been rather weak in terms of the volume of issues by companies in the investment grade category and had been dominated by those in the high yield category. Thus, investors had a lot of liquidity to invest in more secure investments. Finally, LVMH issues few bonds even though the group is highly rated. Investors were therefore looking to acquire its debt.

This example allows us to understand the conditions of a record issue. Moreover, it also allows us to underline that it is possible to resort to borrowing to finance new projects, current expenses or, in this case, an acquisition.

Useful resources

Rating agencies

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch Rating

Related posts

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond valuation

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond risks

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond markets

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit Rating

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Georges WAUBERT.

Why do companies issue debt?

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT provides insights into why companies issue bonds.

A company can finance its activities in different ways: by internal financing (self-financing) and by external financing comprising debt and equity. Often, internal funds are not sufficient. The company must therefore make a choice between raising debt and raising equity. So, it is necessary to ask what might lead a company to prefer one over the other.

The advantages of debt over equity for a company

Debt is often preferred to equity because it is structurally less costly for the following reasons:

– The interest on the debt is tax deductible. The debt therefore costs the interest minus the tax savings (assuming that the company makes profit and pays taxes…).

– Investing in stocks is riskier than investing in bonds because of a number of factors. For instance, the stock market has a higher volatility of returns than the bond market, capital gains are not a guarantee, dividends are discretionary, stockholders have a lower claim on company assets in case of company default. Therefore, investor expect higher returns to compensate it for the additional risk.  Thus, for the company, financing itself through debt will be less expensive than through equity.

– The remuneration of the debt is not strictly proportional to the increase of the risk taken by the company, because there are multiple ways for lenders to take guarantees: leasing, mortgage….

Debt has other advantages over equity:

Debt can be used to gain leverage. It provides a leverage effect for shareholders who contribute only part of the sums mobilized in the investment. This effect is all the more important when the interest rate at which the debt is subscribed is low and the economic profitability of the investment is high.

Raising equity dilutes ownership of existing stockholders. When a company sells equity, it gives up ownership of its business. This has both financial and day-to-day operational implications for the business. Debt does not imply such a dilution effect.

There is a practical benefit for using debt. Issuing debt is easier than issuing equity in practice.

Finally, the terms of repayment of principal and interest payments are known in advance. This allows companies to anticipate future expenses.

The disadvantages of debt over equity

First, unlike equity, debt must be repaid at some point. This is because equity financing is like taking a share in the company in exchange for cash. Thus, where cash outflows are required to pay interest on debt and repay principal, this is not useful for equity.

Moreover, in equity financing, the risk is carried by the stockholders. If the company fails, they will lose their stake in the company. In contrast, in debt financing, creditors often require assets to be secured. Thus, if the company goes bankrupt, they can take the collateral.

Finally, the debt capacity of a company is limited. Indeed, the more debt a company takes on, the higher the risk of default. Thus, creditors will ask an already highly leveraged company for higher interest rates to compensate for the risk they are taking. Conversely, equity financing allows companies to improve their capital structure, and thus present better debt ratios to investors.

Useful resources

Rating agencies

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch Rating

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT The rise in corporate debt

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Corporate debt

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the DCM (Debt Capital Market) analyst’s job…

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Georges WAUBERT.

Credit Rating Agencies

img_SimTrade_Photo1_Raphael_Roero_de_Cortanze

In this article, Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) explains how credit rating agencies work.

What are Credit Rating Agencies?

Credit Rating Agencies are private companies whose main activity is to evaluate the capacity of debt issuers to meet their financial commitments. The historical agencies (Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings) hold about 85% of the market. But national competitors have emerged over the years, such as Dagong Global Credit Rating in China. Nonetheless, there is little competition in this market as the barriers to entry are very high. The rating agencies’ business model is based on remuneration paid by the rated entities, consulting activities, and the dissemination of rating-related data.

The rating gives an opinion (in the form of a grade) on the ability of an issuer to meet its obligations to its creditors, or of a security to generate the capital and interest payments in accordance with the planned schedule. The rated entities are therefore potentially all financial or non-financial agents issuing debt: governments, public or semi-public bodies, financial institutions, non-financial companies. The rating may also relate not to an issuer in general, but to a security.

S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch rating scales S&P, Moody's, and Fitch rating scales
Source: internet.

Rating agencies are key players in the markets. Indeed, ratings are widely used in the regulatory framework on the one hand, and also in the strategies of many investors. For instance, to be eligible for central bank refinancing operations, securities must have a minimum rating. Similarly, the management objectives of many investors are based on ratings: for example, a mutual fund may have as one of its objectives to hold 80% of assets issued by issuers rated at least “BBB”. Credit risk monitoring indicators in corporate and investment banks are also based on ratings.

Credit Rating Agencies: judges & parties during the subprime crisis?

Rating agencies played a crucial role in securitization (“titrisation” in French), a financial technique that transforms rather illiquid assets, such as real-estate loans, into easily tradable securities. The agencies rate both the securitized credit packages and the bonds issued as counterparts according to the different risk levels.

The securitization technique appeared in the 70’ in the US, and allowed banks to grant more loans. During the 1990’ and 2000’, banks used securitization as a way to remove from their balance sheet the loans they granted. Indeed, banks would package loans in vehicles labelled as “Asset Backed Securities” (securities which the collateral is an asset). Banks would then sell these securities, or sell the risk associated with these securities. In the case of subprimes, the loans were packaged inside vehicles called “Mortgage Backed Securities”, as these securities had as counterpart the mortgage loans. There was a shift from the previous “originate-to-hold” bank model (where banks originated the loans and kept them in their balance sheet) to the new “originate-to-distribute” model (where banks originated the loans and then took them out of their balance sheet).

Michel Aglietta explains that in the case of securitized loans (such as MBS), the rating agencies rate and are at the same time stakeholders in the securitization. Indeed, the constitution of the product and the rating are completely intertwined. “Without the rating, the security has no existence”. The investment banks that structure and market the product and the agencies work together to determine the specificities of each loan packages or “pools” and obtain the desired rating.

It is now recognized that rating agencies often overrated the securitized packages compared to the intrinsic risk they were carrying. By granting high grades to many securitized packages (the highest being AAA), they have contributed to the formation of a speculative bubble. In addition, when the housing market collapsed, the rating agencies reacted too late and downgraded MBS abruptly, which inevitably worsened the crisis. For example, 93% of the MBS rated AAA marketed in 2006 had their grade scaled down to “junk bond” ratings (BB+/Ba1 and below) later on.

Rating agencies have been accused of conflict of interest, as they are paid by those they rate. The emails revealed by the US Senate Investigations Subcommittee in April 2010 during its work on the Goldman Sachs affair reveal a system in which the marketing teams of structured products of investment banks tended to choose the agency most inclined to give the most favorable rating. Furthermore, the Senate subcommittee found that rating decisions were often subject to concerns about losing market share to competitors.

Key concepts

Mortgage loan

A mortgage loan has the specificity of putting the purchase property (a house for instance) as the counterpart of a loan. In the case of a payment default, the property is seized.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Jayati WALIA Quantitative Risk Management

▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

▶ Georges WAUBERT Credit analyst

▶ Jayati WALIA My experience as a credit analyst at Amundi Asset Management

Useful resources

La Finance pour Tous

Aglietta M. (2009) La crise : Pourquoi en est arrivé là ? Michalon Editions.

Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances Quel rôle ont joué les agences de notation dans la crise des subprimes ?

Marian Wang (2010) Banks Pressured Credit Agencies, Then Blamed Them Later on Blog.

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022).

The Internal Rate of Return

The Internal Rate of Return

img_SimTrade_Photo1_Raphael_Roero_de_Cortanze

In this article, Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) explains the financial concept of internal rate of return (IRR).

What is the Internal Rate of Return?

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR or “TRI” – “taux de rendement interne” in French) of a sequence of cash flows is the discount rate that makes the Net Present Value (NPV or “VNP” or “VAN” for “valeur nette présente” or “valeur actuelle nette” in French) of this sequence of cash flows equal to zero.

Screenshot 2021-05-31 at 21.59.49

In order to calculate the IRR, two methods can be used. First of all, use the Excel “IRR” formula on the sequence of cash flows, which will automatically display an approximate value for the IRR. Nonetheless, if Excel is not available for performing the IRR calculation, you can use the dichotomy method (which is indeed used by Excel). The dichotomy method uses several iterations to determine an approximation of the IRR. The more iterations are performed, the more accurate the final IRR output is. For each iteration, the table below assesses whether the NPV using the “Average” discount rate is positive or negative. If it is negative (resp. positive), it means the IRR is somewhere in between the “Lower bound” (resp. “Upper bound” and the “Average”) and the next iteration will thus keep the same “Lower bound” (resp. use the “Average” as the new lower bound) and use the “Average” as the new “Upper bound” (resp. keep the same “Upper bound”). After 10 iterations, the table displays an IRR of 18,457%, which is an approximation to the nearest hundredth of the 18,450% IRR calculated with the Excel formula.

Screenshot 2021-05-31 at 22.08.50

The IRR criterion

In the same way as the NPV, the IRR can be used to evaluate the financial performance of:
A tangible investment: the IRR criterion can be used to evaluate which investment project will be the most profitable. For instance, if a firm hesitating between Project A (buying a new machine), Project B (upgrading the existing machine) and Project C (outsourcing a fraction of the production), the firm can calculate the IRR of each project and compare them.
A financial investment: whether it is a bank investment or a private equity investment (purchase of a company) the IRR criterion can be used to sort different projects according to their financial performance.

Disaggregating the IRR

Investors and especially Private Equity firms often rely on the IRR as one measure of a project’s yield. Projects with the highest IRRs are considered the most attractive. The performance of Private Equity funds is also measured through the IRR criterion. In other words, PE firms use the IRR to select the most profitable projects and investors look at the IRR of PE funds when choosing to which PE firms’ fundraising campaign, they will participate in.

Nonetheless, IRR is the most important performance benchmark for PE investments, the IRR does not go into detail. Indeed, disaggregating the IRR can help better understand which are the different components of the IRR:

  • Unlevered IRR components:
    • Baseline return: the cash flows that the acquired business was expected to generate without any improvements after acquisition.
    • Business performance: value creation through growth by improving the business performance, margin increase and capital efficiency improvements.
    • Strategic repositioning: value creation through by increasing the opportunity for future growth and returns (innovation, market entries etc.).
  • Leveraged IRR: PE investments heavily rely on high amounts or debt funding (hence the wide use of Leverage Buy-Out or LBO). Debt funding allows to resort to less equity funding, thus mechanically increasing the IRR of the investment.

Each of these components can have different proportions in the IRR. As an example, we can consider two PE funds A and B displaying the same IRR of 30%. After disaggregating each fund’s IRR, we come up with the following table, showing the weight of each IRR component in the total IRR (or “Levered IRR”). From this table, we understand that Fund A and Fund B have very different strategies. Fund A focuses in its PE operations on improving the business performance and carrying out strategic repositioning’s. Only 23% of the total IRR comes from financial engineering. In contrast, Fund B draws most of its performance from financial engineering, while only 23% of the total IRR comes from the unlevered IRR.

Screenshot 2021-05-31 at 22.09.00

Through this example we understand that PE funds and firms can have very different strategies, while disclosing the same IRR. Thus, disaggregating the IRR can reveal the positioning of PE funds. Finally, disaggregating the IRR also allows to assess whether PE funds are true to the strategy they display: for instance, a fund can be specialized in strategic repositioning and business performance improvements on the paper, but drawing most of its value creation through financial engineering.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Jérémy PAULEN The IRR function in Excel

   ▶ Léopoldine FOUQUES The IRR, XIRR and MIRR functions in Excel

   ▶ William LONGIN How to compute the present value of an asset?

   ▶ Maite CARNICERO MARTINEZ How to compute the net present value of an investment in Excel

   ▶ Sébastien PIAT Simple interest rate and compound interest rate

Useful resources

Prof. Longin’s website Calcul de la VNP et du TRI d’une séquence de flux (in French)

Prof. Longin’s website Méthode de dichotomie pour le calcul du TRI (in French)

McKinsey A better way to understand internal rate of return

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Corporate debt

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT introduces you to corporate debt.

Investors seek to determine how the different characteristics of a bond can influence its intrinsic value in order to know whether it is a good investment or not. To do this, they will look at the theoretical value of a bond, i.e. its present value. How can this be determined? How to interpret it?

Composition of a company’s debt

The debt of a company is composed of short-term liabilities and of long-term liabilities.

Short-term liabilities: accounts payable, deferred revenues, wages payable, short-term notes, current portion of long-term debt.

Long-term liabilities: Bonds payable, capital leases, long-term loans, pension liabilities, deferred compensation, deferred income taxes.

Let us have a look to the long-term liabilities:

  • Bonds payable: A bond payable is a form of long-term debt issued by the company.
  • Capital leases: A capital lease is a contract entitling a renter to the temporary use of an asset.
  • Long-term loans:  A long-term loan involve borrowing money over a specified period with a pre-planned payment schedule.
  • Pension liabilities: A pension liability is the difference between the total amount due to retirees and the actual amount of money the company has on hand to make those payments.
  • Deferred compensation: Deferred compensation is an arrangement in which a portion of an employee’s income is paid out at a later date after which the income was earned.
  • Deferred income taxes: Deferred income taxes result from a difference in income recognition between tax laws and the company’s accounting methods.

When looking at a company’s debt, analysts often look at net debt. It is equal to the sum of the short-term liabilities and of the long-term liabilities minus the cash and the cash equivalents, that are liquid investments with a maturity of 90 days (certificates of deposit, treasury bills, commercial paper, …). It is a metric that measures a company’s ability to bay all its debts if they were due today.

 

For example, assume that a company has a line of credit of $5,000, a current portion of long-term debt of $25,000, a $60,000 long-term bank loan, and $40,000 in bonds. Moreover it has $10,000 in cash and $5,000 in Treasury bills.

The short-term debt would be equal to $5,000 + $25,000 = $30,000

The long-term debt would be equal to $60,000 + $40,000 = $100,000

And the cash and cash equivalents would be equal to $10,000 + $5,000 = 15,000

So the net debt of the company would be equal to $115,000.

Debt Ratios

Nevertheless, an absolute value will not give us much indication of the health of the company. In order to understand the company’s indebtedness, we need to compare the amount of debt with other metrics. To do this, we will use what are called ratios.

We will focus here on three important ratios: the debt-to-equity ratio, the EBIT-to-interest expenses ratio and the debt-to-EBITDA ratio.

Debt-to-equity ratio (D/E)

The D/E ratio, also known as gearing, is a ratio that measures the level of debt of a company in relation to its equity. Simply put, it tells us about the financial structure of the company.

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 171132

Changes in long-term liabilities have more influence on the D/E ratio than changes in short-term liabilities. Thus, investors will use other ratios if they want information on short-term liabilities.

The higher the ratio, the more indebted the company is. The risk is therefore higher. Between 0 and 0.1, the ratio is theoretically excellent. Above 1, the ratio is theoretically bad.

Beware, this ratio has its limitations. First of all, the reading of this ratio depends on the industries. Capital intensive industries, such as TMT or oil and gas, will tend to have higher ratios. It is therefore necessary to compare the ratios of companies in the same sector. On the other hand, a low D/E ratio can also mean that a company is afraid to invest. In the long run, this can present a risk of downgrading compared to its competitors.

It is therefore important to keep in mind, and this is also true for other ratios, that it is one indicator among others and that it cannot be perfect. It is important to put it into context and to compare comparable companies.

Interest Coverage ratio (ICR)

The ICR is the ratio of financial expenses to operating income. It measures a company’s ability to pay the interest on its debt.

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 171146

A low ICR means that less profit is available for interest payments and that the company is more vulnerable to rising interest rates.

Usually, the ICR is considered low when it is below 3. However, it varies according to the type of industry. On the other hand, we can also look at the trends that are emerging. A falling ICR is worrying for investors.

Debt-to-EBIDTA ratio

This ratio measures the company’s ability to repay its debt with the money generated by its activity. It tells us how many years of profit it would take to pay off the entire debt. It is often referred to as leverage.

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 171157

Analysts often use this ratio, which is easy to calculate. The lower the ratio, the healthier the company. A good ratio is between 2 and 4. However, again, it depends on the industry.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Why do companies issue debt?

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Corporate debt

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the DCM (Debt Capital Market) analyst’s job…

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Georges WAUBERT.

Bond risks

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT introduces you to bond risks.

Holding bonds exposes you to fluctuations in its price, both up and down. Nevertheless, bonds offer the guarantee of a coupon regularly paid during for a fixed period. Investing in bonds has long been considered one of the safest investments, especially if the securities are held to maturity. Nevertheless, a number of risks exist. What are these risks? How are they defined?

Default risk

Default risk is the risk that a company, local authority or government fails to pay the coupons or repay the face value of the bonds they issued. This risk can be low, moderate or high. It depends on the quality of the issuer.

For a given product, the default risk is mainly measured by rating agencies. Three agencies share 95% of the world’s rating requests. Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) each hold 40% of the market, and Fitch Ratings 14%. The highest rated bonds (from Aaa to Baa3 at Moody’s and from AAA to BBB- at S&P and Fitch) are investment-grade bonds. The lowest rated bonds (Ba1 to Caa3 at Moody’s and BB+ to D at S&P and Fitch) are high yield bonds, otherwise known as junk bonds.

It should be noted that the opinions produced by an agency are advisory and indicative. Moreover, some criticisms have emerged. As agencies rate their clients, questions may be asked about their independence and therefore their impartiality. The analysis done aby rating agencies is most of the time paid by the entities that want their product to be rated.

In addition, companies issuing bonds are increasingly using the technique of “debt subordination”. This technique makes it possible to establish an order of priority between the different types of bonds issued by the same company, in the event that the company is unable to honor all its financial commitments. The order of priority is senior, mezzanine and junior debt. The higher the risk is, the higher the return is. It should also be noted that bonds have priority over equity.

To highlight the level of risk of an issuer, one can compare the yield of its bonds to those of a risk-free issuer. This is called the spread. Theoretically, it is the difference between the yield to maturity of a given bond and that of a zero-coupon bond with similar characteristics. The spread is usually measured in basis points (0.01%).

Liquidity risk

Liquidity risk is the degree of easiness in being able to buy or sell bonds in the secondary market quickly and at the desired price (i.e. with a limited price impact). If the market is illiquid, a bondholder who wishes to sell will have to agree to a substantial discount on the expected price in the best case, and will not be able to sell the bonds at all in the worst case.

The risk depends on the size of the issuance and the existence and functioning of the secondary market for the security. The liquidity of the secondary market varies from one currency to another and changes over time. In addition, a rating downgrade may affect the marketability of a security.

On the other hand, it may be an opportunity for investors who want to keep their illiquid bonds. Indeed, they usually get a better return. This is called the “liquidity premium”. It rewards the risk inherent in the investment and the unavailability of funds during this period.

Interest rate risk

The price of a bond fluctuates with interest rates. The price of a bond is inversely correlated to interest rates (the discount rate used to compute its present value). Indeed, the nominal interest rates follow the key rates. Thus, if rates rise, the coupons offered by new bonds will be higher than those offered by older bonds, issued with lower rates. Investors will therefore prefer the new bonds, which offer a better return, which will automatically lower the price of the older ones.

The interest rate risk is increasing with the maturity of the bond (more precisely its duration). The risk is low for bonds with a life of less than 3 years, moderate for bonds with a life of 3 to 5 years and high for bonds with a life of more than 5 years. However, interest rate risk does not impact investors who hold their bonds to maturity.

Inflation risk

Inflation presents a double risk to bondholders. Firstly, if inflation rises, the value of an investment in bonds will necessarily fall. For example, if an investor purchases a 5% fixed-rate bond, and inflation rises to 10% per year, the bondholder will lose money on the investment because the purchasing power of the proceeds has been greatly diminished. Secondly, high inflation can lead central banks to raise rates in order to tackle it, which, as we can see above, will depreciate the value of the bond.

To protect against this, some bonds, floating-rates bonds, are indexed to inflation. They guarantee their holders a daily readjustment of the value of their investment according to the evolution of inflation. However, these bonds have a cost in terms of return.

As with interest rate risk, the risk increases with the maturity of the bond. Also, the risk rises as the coupon decreases. The risk is therefore very high for zero-coupon bonds.

Currency risk

An investor can buy bonds in a currency other than its own. However, as with any investment in a foreign currency, the return on the bond will depend on the rate of that currency relative to the investor’s own currency.

For example, if an investor holds a $100 US bond. If the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.30, the price of the bond will be €76.9. If the euro appreciates against the dollar and the exchange rate rises to 1.40, the price of the bond will be €71.4. Thus, the investor will lose money.

Useful resources

Rating agencies

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch Rating

Related posts

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond valuation

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond markets

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit Rating

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Georges WAUBERT.

Bond valuation

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT introduces you to bond valuation.

Investors seek to determine how the different characteristics of a bond can influence its intrinsic value in order to know whether it is a good investment or not. To do this, they will look at the theoretical value of a bond, i.e. its present value. How can this be determined? How to interpret it?

Present value of a bond

The price of a bond is equal to the present value of the cash flows it generates. The holder of a bond will, by definition, receives a set of cash flows that will be received over a period of time. These flows are not directly comparable. A euro at time t1 does not have the same value as a euro at time t2. It is therefore necessary to determine the present value of future cash flows generated by the bond. This is calculated by multiplying these flows by a discount factor.

The discount rate chosen for this operation is determined by observing those already applied on the market to bonds comparable in duration, liquidity and credit risk. The convention is to discount all flows at a single rate, even if this does not reflect reality.

The present value of a bond is equal to the sum of the present value of the nominal amount and the present value of future coupons.

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 165852

Where:

  • C = coupon payment
  • r = discount rate
  • F = face value of the bond
  • t = time of cash flow payment
  • T = time to maturity

This formula shows that the present value of the security varies with the discount rate. In addition, the longer a bond has to mature, the greater the impact of discounted income on the value. This is known as the bond’s sensitivity.

Note that this formula includes the accrued coupon. This is known as the <i>gross</i> price. Most often the price in question is the price at the coupon footer. This is known as the clean price.

Now, let us see an application of this formula:

Consider a 2-year coupon bond with a 5% coupon rate and a nominal value of €1,000. We assume that coupons are paid semi-annually. A 3% discount rate is used. What is its present value?

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 165911

The result is PVbond = €1,038.54

Yield To Maturity (YMT)

The YTM (“taux de rendement actuariel” in French) represents the rate of return on a bond for someone who buys it today and holds it to maturity. This is equivalent to the internal rate of return (IRR) of an investment in a bond if the investor holds the bond until maturity, with all payments made as scheduled and reinvested at the same rate.

To calculate the yield to maturity of a bond, the compound interest – in other words “interest on interest” – method is used. This method takes into account the fact that the interest from holding a bond is added back to the principal each year and itself generates interest.

The YTM is the rate that equates the price of the bond with the present value of the future coupons and the final repayment.

We therefore have the following relation:

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 165928

Where y corresponds to the YTM.

Example

Let us take an example:

Consider a 3-year coupon bond with a 10% coupon rate and a nominal value of €1,000. We assume that the present value of the bond is €980. What is the yield to maturity?

To find out the yield to maturity, you have to solve the following equation:

Capture d’écran 2021-05-30 165947

The YMT is 10.82%.

If a bond’s coupon rate is less than its YMT, then the bond is selling at a discount. If a bond’s coupon rate is more than its YMT, then the bond is selling at a premium. If a bond’s rate is equal to its YTM, then the bond is selling at par.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Introduction to bonds

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Government debt

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Corporate debt

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond markets

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond risks

Useful resources

longin.fr Evaluation d’obligations à taux fixe

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Georges WAUBERT.

Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index

Bijal Gandhi

In this article, Bijal Gandhi (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022) elaborates on the concept of Consumer Confidence Index.

This reading will help you understand the meaning, calculation, and importance of consumer confidence index.

Introduction

The consumer confidence index (CCI) is a statistical estimation that measures the current and future economic conditions. This indicator provides estimates based on households’ expectations and view of their financial situation like employability, saving capacity, consumption, etc.

It is a barometer that mainly measures the optimistic/pessimistic nature of the consumers regarding their future financial situation. The CCI is based on the concept that when consumers are optimistic about the future, they are likely to spend more currently and stimulate the economy but if the consumers are pessimistic about the future, then they are likely to save more in the present and hence this could lead to a recession. This index tells you about the optimal levels of the households about the economy and their ability to find jobs.

Measuring Consumer Confidence Index

The Consumer Confidence Index measures the degree of optimism/pessimism of the households for the future state of the economy by measuring household current saving and spending patterns. While the Consumer Confidence Index is measured differently in every economy based on various underlining factors, we talk about how it is measured in the U.S. economy to provide an understanding of its calculation process.

In the U.S. economy, the Conference Board calculates the Consumer Confidence Index. It was first calculated in 1985 and is now used as a benchmark to assess the CCI. The value of CCI is calculated monthly based on the results of a household survey of (1) consumers’ opinions on the current conditions as well as their (2) future economic positions. The former constitutes 40% of the index, while the latter constitutes the remaining 60%.

When the confidence increases, consumers spend more money in the present time ,and as a result, indicates the sustainability of an economy. And when the confidence decreases, consumers are prone to save more in the present time, and as a result, indicates the possibility of future economic turmoil.

Each month, the Conference Board conducts a survey for 5,000 U.S. households the survey participants are asked to answer each question in any of the three forms as positive, negative, or neutral. The survey is comprised of five questions about the following:

Present Situation Index

  • Current business conditions
  • Current employment conditions

Expectations Index

  • Business situation for the next six months
  • Employment situation for the next six months
  • Total family income situation for the next six months

A relative value is calculated separately for each question, it is then compared to the relative value from the 1985 survey. This comparison of the relative value is used to calculate the “index value” for each question.

Finally, the average of all five index values forms the final consumer confidence index. In the U.S. Economy, this data is calculated for the economy as a whole. In the following graph, we can see the impact of the corona virus pandemic on the consumer confidence index in April 2020.

Bijal Gandhi

Source: The Conference Board

Interpreting Consumer Confidence Index

The consumer confidence index measures the spending/savings pattern of the consumers currently and their response to the economy’s future growth prospects.

Higher index value means that the consumers have confidence in the future of the economy and its growth and as a result will be spending more currently. On the contrary, a lower index value means that consumers have low confidence in the future of the economy and as a result will be likely to save more in the present. Therefore, the consumer confidence index does not only help to interpret the household’s opinion on the future of the economy’s growth but also helps businesses, banks, retailers, and government to factor in and adapt to the changes in the household’s future consumption/saving patterns.

For example, if the consumer confidence index shows a consistent decrease in its value, it means that the consumers are currently saving more and, in the future, as well. As a result, consumers will be less willing to spend. Based on these manufacturers’ can adapt to their production of retail goods, banks can interpret a decrease in the lending activity and credit card usage, the government can adapt its fiscal or monetary policies to stimulate the economy. On the contrary, if the consumer confidence index shows a consistent increase in its value it means that the consumers are willing to spend more currently and, in the future, because they have confidence that the economy will boost. As a result, the manufacturers can increase their supply of non-essential goods and luxury goods, banks can expect the increase of withdrawal from the consumers saving accounts, etc.

The consumer confidence index is a lagging indicator, as mentioned by many economists. This means that the indicator is not necessarily good at predicting future economic trends. On the contrary, it is more like the index follows the future economic conditions after they have occurred. For example, even after a regressive period is over, the impacts will remain. There will still be an increased unemployment rate in the economy. This simply means that the consumer confidence index is more like the aftershocks of an earthquake that already happened in the economy.

CCI therefore helps get an idea of the consumer spending/saving pattern and the degree with which it will increase/decrease. An increase in spending can increase the growth of businesses and therefore result in higher earnings in stock market prices for businesses. Hence, investors are more likely to buy stocks if the consumer confidence index rises. As a result, the stock market may move drastically during the publication date of the confidence index.

Useful resources

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Bijal Gandhi (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Bijal Gandhi

In this article, Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) elaborates on the concept of Purchasing Managers’ Index

This read will help you understand the formulation of PMI and it’s importance for each of the stakeholders.

Introduction

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a statistical estimation used to determine the economic directions in which the manufacturing and service sectors are moving forward. The PMI consists of a diffusion index that locates whether the market conditions for a particular sector are expanding, remaining the same, or contracting. The main goal of this index is to provide information about the present and future business conditions to decision-makers, analysts, investors, and the government.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is an economic indicator formulated via surveys conducted for businesses in a particular sector.

PMI is formulated by three main institutions:

  • Institute for Supply Management (ISM): This institute originated the manufacturing and non-manufacturing metrics produced for the United States.
  • Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM): This institute formulates the Singapore PMI.
  • IHS Markit Group: This institute formulates metrics based on ISM’s metrics for more than 30 countries worldwide.

Calculation of PMI

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is formulated by several different surveys of purchasing managers at businesses in a different sector but mainly revolving around manufacturing and service sectors. All the surveys are amalgamated into a single numerical result depending on several possible answers to each question.

The calculation mentioned below is the methodology of the PMI being calculated and released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The PMI is formulated from a monthly survey sent to senior executives at more than 400 companies in 19 primary industries (which are selected and weighted via their contribution to the U.S. GDP). The PMI is formulated around five main survey areas: (1) new orders, (2) inventory levels, (3) production, (4) deliveries, and (5) employment. All the survey areas are equally weighed while computing the PMI. This always consists of questions about business conditions regarding the sector and if any possible changes are occurring, whether be expanding, stagnant, or contracting.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is an index indicating whether the economic conditions are better or worse for the companies surveyed by comparing it to the previous PMI. The methodology used to calculate the PMI assigns weight to each common element. The common element is multiplied by the following for a certain situation: multiplied by 1 for improvement, multiplied by 0.5 for stagnation, and multiplied by 0 for deterioration.

The PMI is calculated as:

PMI = (P1 x 1) + (P2 x 0.5) + (P3 x 0) where,

P1 = % of answers indicating an expansion
P2 = % of answers indicating no change
P3 = % of answers indicating a contraction

The PMI is a number ranging between 0 and 100. The formulated PMI is then compared to the previous month and if the PMI is greater than 50 represents an improvement/expansion while a PMI which is less than 50 represents a contraction/deterioration. A PMI equal to 50 represents no change/stagnation. It is also important to note that the greater the difference from the midpoint of 50, the greater is the expansion/contraction.

Importance of PMI

The PMI is turning out to be one of the most tracked indicators of business activity across the globe. It provides a good picture of how an economy is functioning particularly in the manufacturing sector. It is a good representative of the boom-and-bust cycles in the economy and hence it is closely administered by investors, businesses, traders, and financial professionals including economists. Furthermore, the PMI acts as a leading indicator of economic activity. It is important to various entities as explained below.

For Manufacturers

The PMI and its relevant data formulated every month by the ISM are crucial decision-making tools for managers in various roles ranging from different sectors. For example, if a smartphone manufacturer makes their production decisions based on the expected new orders from customers in the future months. These new orders drive the management’s purchasing decisions about multiple components and raw materials. Therefore, the PMI helps manufacturers in predicting the possibility for an expansion or unexpected contraction in their sector and them to make decisions for an anticipated future.

For Suppliers

The PMI also facilitates suppliers in making their decisions. A supplier from the manufacturing sector would follow the PMI to predict the market to estimate the amount of future demand for its products. PMI’s ability to inform about supply and demand, in turn, helps the supplier adjust the prices that they can charge. For example, if the manufacturer’s new orders are growing, it might result in increased customer prices and as a result, accept a price increase from its suppliers as well. On the contrary, if the new orders are declining, the manufacturers might reduce their prices and as a result demand lower prices for the parts that they procure from suppliers.

For Investors

Investors can also utilize the data from the PMI to their advantage because the PMI acts as an indicator of economic conditions. The direction in which the PMI tends to follow is usually preceded by changes in the trends of major economic activities and outputs such as the GDP, Industrial Production, and Employability. Therefore, paying attention to the value of PMI and its movement can result in profitable foresight for the investors.

For Government

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is an important indicator for economic growth. It is used by international investors who try to formulate an opinion on the economic growth and hence consider PMI as a leading indicator for the GDP’s growth or deterioration. Central banks also utilize the results of PMI to formulate monetary policies.

Why should one be concerned about PMI?

PMI is a good indicator to provide a direction in which the economy is moving forward. If you are a potential employee, it will help you determine the increase or decrease in employability in an economy. If you are an investor, PMI helps you determine changes in the macro fundamentals of the economy and their impact on the equity market. If you are a business owner, it could help formulate and guide in making more informed and certain decisions related to the sourcing of raw materials, inventory levels, etc.

The following graph from tradingview.com depicts the PMI from 2017 to 2021. The PMI ranges between the value 0 and 100 with values below 50 showing contraction and values above 50 showing expansion in the economy. As of April 2021, the PMI was 60.70 as depicted in the chart below.

Bijal Gandhi

Source: www.tradingview.com

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Economic Indicators

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Leading and Lagging Indicators

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI GDP

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Interest Rates

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Inflation Rate

Useful resources

Institute for supply management

Trading View

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Credit Rating

Bijal GANDHI

In this article, Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) elaborates on the concept of Credit Rating.

This reading will help you understand the meaning, types, and importance of credit rating.

Introduction

Credit rating is the measurement of ability of the entity that seeks to borrow money to repay its financial obligation. Credit rating is based on the earning capacity of an entity as well as the history of the repayment of their past obligations. The entity seeking to borrow money can be an individual, a corporation, a state (at a national or federal level for some countries like the US), or a government agency. Credit ratings are used by banks and investors as one of the factors to determine their decision to lend money or not. Banks would develop their own credit analysis to decide to lend or not while investors would rely on the analysis by rating agencies to invest in credit products like commercial papers or bonds.

Rating agencies

The credit agency calculates the credit rating of an entity by analyzing its qualitative and quantitative attributes. Information can be procured from internal information directly provided by the entity such as financial statements, annual reports, etc. as well as external information such as analyst reports, published news articles, overall industry, etc.

A credit agency is not a part of the deal and therefore does not have any role involved in the transaction and, therefore, is assumed to provide an independent and honest opinion on the credit risk associated by a particular entity seeking to raise money through various means.

Now, three prominent credit agencies contribute 85% to the overall rating market:
1. Moody’s Investor Services
2. Standard and Poor’s (S&P)
3. Fitch Group

Each agency mentioned above utilizes a unique yet similar rating style to calculate credit ratings like described below,

Bijal Gandhi

Types of Credit Rating

Credit rating agencies use their terminology to determine credit ratings. Even so, the terminology is surprisingly similar among the three credit agencies mentioned above. Furthermore, ratings are grouped into two main categories:

Investment grade

These ratings indicate the investment is considered robust by the rating agencies, and the issuer is likely to complete the terms of repayment. As a result, these investments are usually less competitively priced when compared to speculative-grade investments.

Speculative grade

These investments are of a high-risk nature and hence offer higher interest rates to reflect the quality of the investments.

Users of Credit Rating

Credit Ratings are used by multiple entities like the following:

Institutional investors

Institutional investors like pension funds or insurance companies utilize credit ratings to assess the risk associated to a particular investment issuance, ideally with reference to their entire portfolio. According to the rate of a particular asset, it may or not include it in its portfolio.

Intermediaries

Credit ratings are used by intermediaries such as investment bankers, which utilize these ratings to evaluate credit risk and therefore derive pricing for debt issues.

Debt Issuers

Debt issuers like governments, institutions, etc. use credit ratings to evaluate their creditworthiness and to measure the credit risk associated with their debt issuance. These ratings can furthermore provide prospective investors in these organizations with an idea of the quality of the instruments issued by the organization and the kind of interest rate they could expect from such instruments.

Businesses & Corporations

Business organizations can use credit ratings to evaluate the risk associated with certain other organizations with which the business plans to have a future transaction/collaboration. Credit ratings, therefore, help entities that are interested in partnerships or ventures with other businesses to evaluate the viability of their propositions.

Understanding Credit Rating

A loan is a debt, which is the financial obligation with respect to its future repayment by the debtor. A credit rating helps to distinguish between debtors who are more liable to repay the loan compared to debtors who are more likely to be defaulters.

A high credit rating indicates the repayment of the loan by the entity without any possible defaults. A poor credit rating indicates the possibility of the entity defaulting the repayment of loans due to their past patterns with respect to loan repayments. As a result of the strong emphasis on credit rating, it affects an entity’s chance of being approved for a loan and receiving favorable terms for that loan.

Credit ratings apply to both businesses and the government. For example, sovereign credit ratings apply to the national government whereas corporate credit ratings apply for cooperation. On the other hand, credit scores apply only to individuals and are calculated by agencies such as Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion for the citizens of the United States.

Credit ratings can be short-term or long-term. A short-term credit rating reflects the history of an entity’s rating with respect to recent loan repayments and therefore poses a possibility for this borrower to default with its loan repayment when compared to entities with long-term credit ratings.

Credit rating agencies usually assign alphabet grades to indicate ratings. For example, S&P Global has a credit rating scaling from AAA (excellent) to C and D. They consider a debt instrument with a rating below BB to be a speculative-grade or junk bond, indicating they are more likely to default on loans.

Importance of Credit Ratings

Credit ratings for entities are calculated based on due diligence conducted by the rating agencies. While a borrowing entity will aim to have the highest possible credit rating, the rating agencies aim to take a balanced and objective view of the borrowing entity’s financial situation and capacity to honor/repay the debt. Keeping this in mind, mentioned below are the importance of credit ratings for various entities:

For Lending Entities

Credit ratings give an honest image of a borrowing entity. Since no money lender would want to risk giving their money to a risky entity with a high possibility of default from their part, credit ratings genuinely help money lenders to assess the worthiness of the following entity and the risk associated with that entity, therefore helping them to make better investment decisions. Credit ratings act as a safety guard because higher credit ratings assure the safety of money and timely repayment of the same with interest.

For Borrowing Entities

Since credit ratings provide an honest review of a borrower’s ability to repay a loan, borrowers with high credit ratings find it easier to get loans approved by money lenders at interest rates that are more favorable to them. A considerable rate of interest is very important for a borrowing entity because higher interest rates make it more difficult for a borrower to repay the loan and fulfill their financial obligations. Therefore, maintaining a high credit rating is essential for a borrower as it helps them get a considerable amount of relaxation when it comes to a rate of interest for the loan issued to them. Finally, it is also important for a borrower to ensure that their credit rating has a long history of high rating. Just because a credit rating is all about longevity. A credit rating with a long credit history is viewed as more attractive when compared to a credit rating with a short credit history.

For Investors

Credit ratings play a very crucial role when it comes to a potential investor’s decision to invest or not in a particular bond. Now, investors have different risk natures associated with them. In general, investors, who are generally risk-averse in nature, are more likely to invest in bonds with higher credit ratings when compared to lower credit ratings. At the same time, credit ratings help investors, who are risk lovers to differentiate between bonds that are riskier due to the lower credit ratings and invest in them for higher returns at the risk of higher defaults associated with them. Overall, credit ratings help investors make more informed decisions about their investment schemes.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Interest Rates

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Credit analyst

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA My experience as a credit analyst at Wells Fargo

   ▶ Jayati WALIA My experience as a credit analyst at Amundi Asset Management

   ▶ Louis DETALLE My professional experience as a Credit Analyst at Société Générale

Useful resources

S&P Global Ratings

Moody’s

Fitch Ratings

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Bijal GANDHI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Bond Markets

Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT introduces you to bond markets.

The bond market allows the financing of medium and long-term needs of States, local authorities and companies. In return, it offers opportunities to invest medium and long-term financing capacities. In order to understand the bond market, it is necessary to distinguish two markets. The primary market, where bonds are issued, and the secondary market, where they are traded. What are their characteristics?

The primary market

When an organization issues new bonds, it uses the primary bond market, where its securities are acquired by various investors.

The issue price of a bond is expressed as a percentage of the face value of the security. If the issue price is 100%, the price is said to be at par.  If the issue price is above 100%, the price is said to be above par. If the issue price is below 100%, the price is said to be below par.

The nominal interest rate is used to calculate the coupon that will be paid to the bondholder. The interest rate at the issuance date depends on the default risk of the issuer reflecting its financial quality. This default risk is usually evaluated by rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch).

There are two principal ways to issue bonds: syndication and auction.

Syndication

Syndication is the most common way to issue debt, widely used by companies, governments and other organizations. Syndication is when several financial institutions join together to ensure the placement of a bond with investors in order to reduce their risk exposure.

In a syndication, there are two types of financial institution: the lead bank, which arranges the transaction and manages the loan syndication, and the so-called “junior” banks, which participate in the transaction without setting the terms.

There are two types of syndication. “Full commitment” is where the lead bank commits to providing the company with the capital it needs and then subcontracts part of the financing to the other members of the syndicate to limit its exposure. “Best effort” is when the amount of the loan is determined by the commitments that the banks are willing to make in a financing transaction.

Auction

Auction is used by governments only. It is their preferred method of issuing sovereign debt. It allows the acquisition of a debt security through an auction system.

The auction can be “open”, i.e. all direct participants in public securities auctions (credit institutions, management and intermediation companies, etc.) have the possibility of acquiring part of the security put up for auction. It can also be “targeted”, i.e. the issue is reserved only for the primary dealers – banks or other financial institutions that has been approved to trade securities – of the issuing State.

A few days before the planned date of an auction, the State makes an announcement, confirming, postponing or cancelling the operation. It also gives the characteristics of the securities to be issued, i.e. the type of securities, the maturity and the amount it wishes to raise. Buyers can then submit several bids, each specifying the desired quantity and price. The issue lines are then auctioned to the highest bidders. The higher the demand is, the lower the issue rate is.

Auction is used because it provides investors, among other things, with transparency and free competition on an investment product with an attractive benefit in relation to a low risk level.

The secondary market

Once issued, a bond can be traded on the secondary bond market. It then becomes a tradable financial instrument, and its price fluctuates over time.

On entering the market, a bond will compete with other bonds. If it offers a higher return than other bonds for the same risk, the bond will be in demand, which will drive up its price. For the most part, transactions are conducted over the counter (OTC). Buyers and sellers interrogate several “market makers” who give them buying or selling prices, and then choose the intermediary who makes the best offer.

A number of bond indices exist for the purposes of managing portfolios and measuring performance, similar to the CAC40 for stocks. The most common American benchmarks are the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index and Citigroup BIG.

A bond is quoted as a percentage of its face value. Thus, if it is trading at 85% of its nominal value of €1,000, it is quoted at €850. In addition, the bond is quoted at the coupon footer, i.e. without the accrued coupon.

The accrued coupon is the interest that has been earned but not yet paid since the most recent interest payment. It is calculated as follows: accrued coupon = (number of days/365) x face rate – with the face rate being the rate on the basis of which interest is calculated at the end of a full year for the nominal value of the bond -.

To better understand this mechanism, let us take an example:

Consider a 6% bond with a nominal value of €1,000, with an entitlement to dividends on 12/31 (coupon payment date). It is assumed that the bond is worth €925 on 09/30.

Gross annual interest: 1,000 x 6% = €60.

The accrued coupon on 09/30 is: 60 x 9/12 = 45 €.

Quotation at the foot of the coupon: 925 – 45 = €880.

Percentage quotation: 880 x 100/ 1000 = 88%.

The quoted price will be: 88%.

In the market, bondholders are subject to risks (interest rate risk, exchange rate risk, inflation risk, credit risk, etc.). We will come back to this in a future article.

Useful resources

Rating agencies

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch Rating

Related posts

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond valuation

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond risks

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit Rating

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Georges WAUBERT.