Economic Indicators

Economic indicators

Bijal Gandhi

In this article, Bijal Gandhi (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022) elaborates on the concept of economic indicators.

This read will help you understand in detail the types of economic indicators, their impact on stock prices and their use by investors in the financial markets.

Economic indicators

Economic indicators are statistical data related to economic activity. They help to evaluate and forecast the health of the economy at the macro level. These indicators measure the systematic risk of the economy and are widely used by investors for their investment decisions. Economic indicators are generally published on a regular basis in a timely manner by governments, universities, and non-profit organizations. To build economic indicators, these institutions use census and surveys. For example, the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a monthly report on the Employment Situation through a survey. This report details about the jobs lost or created every month, compensation costs, unemployment rate, etc.

Economic indicators can be of great use if interpreted accurately. Historically, it has had a strong correlation with the economic growth of a nation. The impact can be clearly seen in the long-term performance of the financial markets and therefore investors keep a close eye on them. They try to evaluate and understand the impact of each of the economic indicators to make informed decisions. The government, economists, corporations, and research organizations are the other beneficiaries of these indicators.

Types of economic indicators

Leading indicators

Economic indicators that help understand and forecast the future health of the economy, are termed “leading indicators”. These indicators tend to precede economic events and therefore prove to be critical during times of economic recession. A single leading indicator may not prove to be accurate, but several indicators analyzed in conjunction may help in providing insights into the future of the economy. Economists, investors, and policymakers may use and analyze these indicators according to their interests.

The evolution of the stock market is one of the major leading indicators. Weak earnings forecasts may indicate to investors the weak state of the economy beforehand. The stock market may therefore tend to decline preceding to the decline of the economy as a whole and vice versa. For the United States, other important leading indicators include the following,

Investors may or may not look at the same indicators as economists. For example, investors would be more interested in the data related to jobless claims by the U.S. Department of Labor to gauge the signs of a weakening economy.

Coincident indicators

Economic indicators that describe the current state of the economy within a particular segment (such as the job market or the market for goods and services), are termed “coincident indicators”. Coincident indicators move simultaneously along the changes in business cycles of the economy. For example, the payroll data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics can help analyze the demand for employees. This evaluation would help understand if the economy’s present condition is strong or weak. Therefore, coincident indicators reflect the real-time situation. They are more useful when used with the leading and lagging indicators. For the United States, other important coincident indicators are:

Lagging indicators

Economic indicators that describe the past state of the economy which confirms a pattern only after a large movement in the underlying variable, are termed “lagging indicators”. These factors tend to trail the shift in the underlying asset and are therefore useful to validate the long-term trends in the economy. Lagging indicators can further be classified under economic, technical, and business indicators as per their use.

The Lagging Index is published by The Conference Board . This economic indicator lags the composite economic performance of the U.S. This indicator is calculated with following seven economic components:

  • Average prime rates
  • Average duration of unemployment
  • Change in the Consumer Price Index for services
  • Ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales
  • Real dollar volume of outstanding commercial and industrial loans
  • Change in labor cost per unit of output in manufacturing
  • Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

Important economic indicators

Gross domestic product

GDP refers to the sum of all goods and services produced in a country during a specific period. The motive is to calculate either the total income or spending in a country and compare it with the preceding period. This difference over time (from a quarter to another or from a year to another) allows economists to understand whether the economy has contracted or expanded.

GDP being the key indicator of the economy, has a significant impact on the investors’ sentiment. A positive change in the GDP would mean that the economy is thriving as compared to the previous period. This would further mean lower levels of unemployment, higher spending, and positive earnings outlook for the companies. This would translate into higher stock prices for investors. Therefore, GDP can be termed as an important economic indicator for both economists and investors.

Inflation (CPI & PPI)

Inflation is referred to the rate at which the value of goods and services rise and consequently the value of currency declines. It is one of the most important economic indicators for investors because it measures the real value of an investment being eroded in a certain period. For example, if the inflation rate is 4% and yield from an investment is 3%, then investors would in real terms lose 1% every year. Therefore, it is a vital factor in investment decision-making, as a higher inflation rate would mean that investor should get an even higher return on their investment. The effect of inflation on the costs incurred by the companies is another factor investor should look at. Decline in inflation would mean lower costs for companies resulting in better overall performance.
The most relevant inflation indexes are Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the U.S. as “a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services”. It is widely used as a close proxy and estimate to inflation. It helps economists, investors and others get an idea about the change in prices in the economy and make informed decisions accordingly.
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the U.S. as “a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output”. It differs from the CPI as it calculates the cost from the perspective of the producer instead of the consumer. It is an important tool as inflation can be tracked in the PPI much before any other economic indicators (including the CPI).

Interest rates

Interest rates are vital economic indicators both for economists and investors. In the U.S., the Federal fund rate is the interest rate at which the banks borrow from each other on an overnight basis. It is targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the monetary policy making body in the U.S. The FOMC sets this target rate eight times a year. The announcement of the changes in the Fed rate is religiously followed by investors. This is because rate adjustments are decided by the FOMC after careful consideration of several economic variables ranging from inflation to employment.
Financial markets (both equity and bond markets) generally react heavily as even a minor rise or decline in this rate can significantly impact the borrowing costs of corporations.

Article written by Bijal Gandhi (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Financial leverage

Financial leverage

Shruti Chand

In this article, Shruti CHAND (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2022) elaborates on the concept of financial leverage.

This read will help you get started with understanding financial leverage and understand its impact of the business, advantages and disadvantages.

Definition of financial leverage

Financial leverage in simple words is the use of debt to acquire additional assets. Imagine this, if you are borrowing money and using it to expand your business’ assets, you are using financial leverage. Financial leverage is also known as gearing as it deals with profit magnification. Debt is important for a company because it’s an integral way to grow business. The most important question to ask here is why would someone borrow money to acquire assets? The answer is that financial leverage is based on the expectation that the income or capital gain from assets will exceed the cost of borrowing.

Financial leverage Balance sheet

How does financial leverage work in real life?

Let’s say a company wants to acquire an asset, the financing options available to the company are: equity and debt.

  • Equity: shares issued to the public by giving out ownership.
  • Debt: funds borrowed through bonds, commercial papers and debentures to be paid back to lenders along with interest.

Here, in case of equity, no fixed costs are incurred, hence the profit/capital gain from the asset remains totally as profits, while in case of debt and leases, there are fixed costs associated in terms of interest that the company expects to be lower than the profit/capital gain expected.

How is financial leverage measured?

Since financial leverage is considered to be a measure of the company’s exposure to risk, company’s stakeholders look at the Debt / Equity ratio, which is a measure of the extent of financial leverage.

Financial leverage ratio

Total Debt = Current liabilities + Long-term liabilities
Total Equity = Shareholders’ equity + Retained Earnings

Analysis: The higher the debt-equity ratio, the weaker the financial position of the enterprise. Hence, lesser the ratio, lesser the chances of bankruptcy and insolvency.

Other ratios that can be used to measure financial leverage: Debt to Capital Ratio, Interest Coverage Ratio, and Debt to Ebitda Ratio.

Example of financial leverage in action

A company with $1 million shareholder equity, borrows $4 million and has $5 million to invest in assets and operations. This will allow this company to set up new factories, take up growth opportunities and expand.

Let’s assume the cost of debt is $0.5 million for a year and at the end of the first year, the company makes $1 million in profits (20% for the return on assets), the realised profit for the business becomes $1 million (profits) – $0.5 million (debt cost) = $0.5 million (50% for the return on equity for shareholders).

Now on the other hand, if the company makes $1 million in losses (-20% for the return on assets), then the realised loss for the business is $1 million + $0.5 million= $1.5 million. (-150% for the return on equity for shareholders).

You can see how in adverse situation that the effect of leverage can be really detrimental.

Now let’s consider a scenario with no leverage, the business utilizes only the $ 1 million that it already has. Considering the profit and loss percentage in the previous scenario, the business will end up making or losing $200,000 in profitable and loss making scenario respectively (20% for the return on equity for shareholders for the positive scenario and -20% for the negative scenario).

Any business needs to support its activity with borrowed money to acquire assets and hence it can be seen that manufacturing companies such as automakers have a higher debt equity ratio than service industry companies.

Advantages of financial leverage

Among the main benefits of financial leverage is the opportunities to invest in larger projects. There are also tax advantages (linked to the deductibility of interests in the income statement).

Disadvantages of financial leverage

As attractive as financial leverage might sound for a business to grow, leverage can sometimes in fact be really complex. As much as it magnifies gains, it can also magnify losses. With interest expenses and credit risk exposure, a company can often destroy shareholder value to a greater extent if it would have grown its business without Leverage.

All in all, leverage can increase burden on the company, high risk of losses, may lead to bankruptcy and other reputational losses.

Conclusion

It is really important for a company to be wise with its financial leverage position. While giving out too much ownership is not good for the shareholders, in the same way taking too much debt can also be hazardous for the company. Hence, even though the debt equity ratio differs for different industries, it is of a consensus that ideally it shouldn’t be more than 2.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Shruti CHAND Balance Sheet

   ▶ Louis DETALLE What are LBOs and how do they work?

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Initial and maintenance margins in stocks

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Introduction to Hedge Funds

Relevance to the SimTrade certificate

This post deals with financial leverage for firms. Similarly, financial leverage can be used investors in financial markets. This can be learnt in the SimTrade Certificate:

About theory

  • By taking the Financial leverage course (Period 3 of the certificate), you will know more about how investors can use financial leverage to buy and sell assets in financial markets.

Take SimTrade courses

About practice

  • By launching the series of Market maker simulations, you will practice how investors can use financial leverage to buy and sell assets in financial markets.

Take SimTrade courses

Useful resources

SimTrade course Financial leverage

About the author

Article written in March 2021 by Shruti CHAND (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2022).

Palantir: a potential and controversial rising decacorn

Palantir: a potential and controversial rising decacorn

Quentin Bonnefond

This article written by Quentin Bonnefond (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2021) discusses the case of Palantir.

Introduction

Founded in 2003 by entrepreneur Peter Thiel, Palantir provides software and data analysis services to help government agencies (CIA, NSA, etc.) and large corporations (among which Merck, Fiat-Chrysler, Ferrari, Crédit Suisse, Airbus, etc.) process large amounts of information. This discreet activity has led Palantir to be regularly accused of mass surveillance and criticized for its close links with law enforcement agencies.

Palantir introduced in the NSYEBanque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL)Source : https://finance.yahoo.com/

Still no profits

Palantir is a real cash consumer. In 2019, its operations consumed $165 million in cash, or 22% of its revenues. And its cash consumption increased from the previous year. In 2018, Palantir’s negative cash flow from operations was $39 million, its cash consumption in 2019 soared by 323% while its revenues increased by only 25%.

The company has very high overhead costs, which accounted for 105% of sales last year. This is due to high R&D costs and low selling prices compare to traditional consulting due to the lengths of its project (several years). To be competitive and acquire new clients, the firm needs to propose reasonable prices.

In 2019, for example, Palantir’s sales and marketing expenses of $450 million accounted for 61% of sales, while general and administrative expenses of $321 million accounted for 44%.

After 17 years of existence, Palantir still hasn’t figured out how to make a profit.

The financial and health crisis: an opportunity not to be missed

The coronavirus crisis has created “enormous opportunities”. This phrase has prompted many funds to invest in the company. Moreover, at the end of January 2021, in a morose context of economic and health crisis, the Californian firm announced a partnership with IBM, which skyrocketed the share price to $39, which was 4 times its value at the time of its initial public offering (IPO), 4 months earlier.

Source: https://fr.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/

A price correction

Uncertainty linked to the global health crisis smiles on Palantir, but the end of the crisis could be (slightly) more unfavorable for the firm. The US company says that revenue growth is expected to slow to about 30% in 2021, compared to 47% in 2020. This announcement is reflected in the share price: $26.75 at the market closing of 23/02, a 31.41% drop in one month.

The company reported better-than-expected sales in the fourth quarter and recorded more than $1.1 billion in annual revenues by winning 21 contracts worth $5 million or more.

Insights:

  • $1.1 billion in revenue for full-year 2020, up 47% year-over-year
  • $322 million in revenue for Q4 2020, up 40% year-over-year
  • New contracts in Q4 2020 include Rio Tinto, PG&E, BP, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, FDA, and NHS
  • Expects Q1 2021 revenue growth of 45% year-over-year

A bright future for data and Palantir

In a conference call with analysts, Palantir’s Chief Operating Officer, Shyam Sankar, indicated that the company’s approach to automated data management and software will increase the total addressable market. “Look at our investments in archetypes. This means that in a few clicks you can deploy powerful end-to-end use cases that would have cost millions of dollars and taken many months to develop and can now be deployed in minutes,” he boasted.

“These are examples of why we’re confident in our long-term growth, which is expected to exceed $4 billion by 2025,” he said. Indeed, the company has a lot of leads for acquiring corporate customers. Palantir had eight Fortune 100 clients and twelve Global 100 clients.

The recent launch of the company’s platform, called Foundry 21, is expected to make it more modular with better data integration, code-free applications and a mobile offering. Historically, Palantir has always needed more implementations and high-level consultants. Recently, a demo day has generated more requests from potential customers.

Conclusion

In spite of huge cash consumption preventing Palantir from being profitable, the crisis has had a boost effect on the American firm’s activity. Growth is expected for 2020 and is expected to be, admittedly less, but at least significant for 2021. Excluding the accusations surrounding data protection and privacy, Palantir is promised to make great strides. A stock to watch.

Capital structure

Top 3 shareholders:

  • Thiel Peter (co-founder): 16.60%
  • Sompo Holdings, Inc: 7.30%
  • Alexander C. Karp (co-founder and CEO): 5.50%

Full structure and top 10 funds shareholders: money.cnn.com

Key concepts

Unicorn, decacorn and hectocorn

In business, a unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at over $1 billion. The term was coined in 2013 by venture capitalist Aileen Lee, choosing the mythical animal to represent the statistical rarity of such successful ventures. Decacorn is a word used for those companies over $10 billion, while hectocorn is used for such a company valued at over $100 billion.

Start-up valuation

Startups, pretty much like babies, need money to expand themselves, test ideas and develop a team. To raise money, a startup needs to be valued and therefore, understanding how the startup valuation process works is very important for any serious and committed entrepreneur.
Various valuation methods are used such as the Venture Capital, the Berkus, the Cost-to-ducat, the DCF or the Comparables methods.

Link: https://pro-business-plans.medium.com/startup-valuation-the-ultimate-guide-to-value-startups-2019-a31cbdaebd51

Initial Public Offering (IPO)

An initial public offering (IPO) or stock market launch is a public offering in which shares of a company are sold to individual and institutional investors. After the IPO, shares are traded freely in the market (secondary market).

Secondary market

The secondary market, also called the aftermarket and follow on public offering, is the financial market in which previously issued financial instruments such as stock, bonds, options, and futures are bought and sold. The existence of a secondary market provides liquidity for investors.

Useful resources

Capital.fr : https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/palantir-le-big-brother-de-lanalyse-de-donnees-debarque-en-fanfare-en-bourse-1381955
https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/palantir-devisse-la-croissance-de-lactivite-va-nettement-ralentir-en-2021-1394242
Forbes.fr: https://www.forbes.fr/finance/entree-en-bourse-de-palantir-pourquoi-il-ne-faut-pas-investir/
Palantir.com: https://www.palantir.com/
fr.finance.yahoo.com: https://fr.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/
marketwatch.com: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pltr

Relevance to the SimTrade Certificate

The case of Palantir is relevant to the SimTrade Certificate as the stocks issued by the company are now traded on the stock market which brings liquidity for investors. It relates to the SimTrade Certificate in the following ways:

About theory

  • By taking the Discover SimTrade course (Period 1), you will discover the SimTrade platform that simulates a secondary market with a limit order book.
  • By taking the Market information course (Period 2), you will know more about how information is incorporated in the stock market price.

Take SimTrade courses

About practice

  • By launching the Sending an Order simulation, you will practice how financial markets really work and how to act in the market by sending orders.
  • By launching the Market order simulation and the Limit order simulation, you will practice market orders and limit orders that are the two main orders used by investors to build and liquidate positions in financial markets.

Take SimTrade courses

More about SimTrade

About the author

Article written by Quentin Bonnefond (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2021).

SimTrade: an inspiration for a career in finance

SimTrade: an inspiration for a career in finance

Qiuyi Xu

In this article, Qiuyi Xu (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor of Business Administration, 2019-2021) shares her experience as an intern in a securities company in China.

Interested in finance, I took the SimTrade course during my study at ESSEC Business School. This course helped me gain knowledge about financial markets as well as served to motivate me to continue my exploration in the sector of finance. Now I have started an internship at the investment banking department of a top 10 securities company in China.

The concept of “investment banking services” is slightly different in China. While in the US and Europe, it refers to all kinds of services (investment banking division, asset management, sales & trading and research departments), in China, it mainly includes securities (stocks and bonds) issuance and underwriting, merger & acquisition and restructuring.

My mission

My mission is to support the team responsible for an initial public offering (IPO) project. An initial public offering (IPO) refers to the process of offering shares of a private corporation to the public in a new stock issuance. Public share issuance allows a company to raise capital from public investors.

A main part of our work is to conduct pre-IPO due diligence. Due diligence is regularly carried out to assess the market maturity of the IPO candidate. We deal executers, together with the accompanying issuing houses and the advisers, typically commissions due diligence covering the financial, tax, legal, commercial, IT, operational, environmental and human resource areas. The objective of the pre-IPO due diligence is to analyze the sustainability of the business model, the plausibility of planning and the disbursement capacity of the company.

I am responsible for financial due diligence and shareholders’ due diligence. A pre-IPO due diligence delivers insights into the sustainability of the company’s business model, assesses the competitive landscape, delves into the opportunities available in the candidate’s industry and fully assesses the potential risks that could impact the company.

For financial due diligence, I check the bank card records of transactions of senior executives to identify whether their receipts and payments are normal transactions or there are possibilities of property transfer or commercial bribery. In addition, I check a large number of loan contracts, including the debt amount, starting and ending date, guarantors and guarantee amount to confirm whether the company’s liabilities are within a reasonable range and whether it has potential debt crisis. I am also responsible for writing the relevant part of financial analysis in the prospectus. For shareholders’ due diligence, I have collected the information of the company’s shareholders which should be disclosed in the prospectus through questionnaires under my mentor’s guide. In the case of an IPO, the shareholders of a company are usually directors, supervisors, and senior managers. Since they are the persons who are actually responsible for the operation of the company, we need to disclose in the prospectus their educational and professional backgrounds in detail so that investors can judge whether the company’s top management team can manage the company well to ensure its long-term growth. It is also important to know their investments in other companies or their holdings of shares of other companies, and to recognize the benefit relationship between shareholders and related companies.

Although I did not have the opportunity to participate in the whole process of an IPO project as it usually takes about two years to carry out a project from the beginning of due diligence to the final listing on an exchange, I still feel it is a rewarding experience because so far, I have helped my mentor completed a lot of basic information processing and through this process I have learned how the data and information in the prospectus are obtained, and I have gained an extensive series of knowledge of auditing, commercial laws, and corporate management.

Through the communication with the associates in my group, I learned about what the working environment and lifestyles are like for bankers. The work in an investment bank may begin with dealing with trivial things for several years, but the fact that many elites gather there and their pursuit of perfection in work allow people to develop working capacities and qualities that ordinary people need ten years to cultivate in three years. For example, the customers you are facing are senior executives of large companies, so you can touch the ideas of leaders in the industry; your skills to make and present slides will be greatly improved by doing numerous presentations to customers; and by analyzing the company’s business, you will have a deep understanding of the industry that it is in after each deal.

Relevance to the SimTrade certificate

Primary market and secondary market are interdependent upon each other. Primary market brings new tradeable stocks and bonds to secondary market. A company is considered private prior to an IPO. It grows with a relatively small number of shareholders including early investors like the founders, family and relatives along with professional investors such as angel investors. To expand at a higher speed, the company needs to raise more capital. That’s what an IPO can provide. Via an IPO, securities are created in the primary market. Those securities are then traded by public investors in the secondary market. The secondary market provides liquidity to company founders and early investors, and they can take advantage of a higher valuation to generate dividends for themselves.

From the course SimTrade, I learned many factors that may affect a company’s stock price. For example, when the company appoints a new director who has many years’ experience in the company’s business sector, this favorable news will attract more investors to invest because they believe that under the guidance of this new director, the company’s performance will improve. As a result, the valuation will increase, and the stock price will rise. If the news comes like the company’s new product development has failed, it will lower the expectations of investors, causing some of them to sell stocks and invest in other stocks, accompanied by a decline in stock price. This knowledge about the secondary market also helps me find out more factors that should be considered in pre-IPO due diligence. We should identify the company’s potential competitive advantages, which will become an attraction to public investors and ensure its vitality in the securities market; we also need to recognize its risk factors because if the company does not operate well, it will face the risk of delisting, and more importantly, we are responsible for ensuring the sustainable trade order in the secondary market.

In short, the SimTrade course has equipped me with necessary knowledge needed in internship as well as future work and paved the way for me to secure an ideal position. This will be an asset that I will cherish for the rest of life.

About the author

Article written in May 2021 by Qiuyi Xu (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor of Business Administration, 2019-2021).

Private banking: evolving in a challenging environment

Private banking: evolving in a challenging environment

Hélène Vaguet-Aubert

This article written by Hélène Vaguet-Aubert (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2021) discusses the challenging environment in private banking based on her experience at the Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL).

Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL)

Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL) was founded in 1856 and is now steered by Marcel Leyers, appointed as director and chairman of BIL’s executive committee in 2019 (BIL, 2021). Being a top bank for over 160 years and being owned to a 10% extent by the Luxembourgish government, BIL supports Luxembourg’s economy at all levels. BIL has also established itself as top international player thanks to its international subsidiaries. BIL’s international scope, 2,000 top-skilled employees worldwide, strong financial results and growth confirms its systemic importance.

Headquarters of Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL)Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL)Source: BIL

BIL brings together all its banking business lines under a common umbrella in order to propose top-of-the-range solutions tailored to the requirements of a very diverse client base. Indeed, the bank has all the financial products and expertise necessary to fulfill all of its clients’ needs: private banking, retail banking, corporate banking and financial markets. As of H1 2019, the bank had a €45 million profit and €41.9 million of assets under management.

As BIL’s “create, collaborate, care” mission statement clearly indicates, BIL’s marketing strategy is client oriented. BIL’s objectives are to focus on core competencies to boost its revenues. To do so, BIL’s short term strategy is to strengthen its activities in mature markets such as Luxembourg and Switzerland. On the long term, BIL’s objective is to leverage the potential of Legend Holdings and the Chinese private banking market.

My internship at BIL

Passionate by strategy and sales, and willing to acquire international experience in the financial sector, I carried out a six-month internship in the Sales Management Department of Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL). In this department, I worked with a team of five international people whose role was to design strategy, sales and marketing solutions to be the direct support of BIL front office and the private banking clients’ indirect support. During this internship, the responsibilities that I had where divided in two parts: on the one hand, sales and marketing, and on the other hand, strategy.

First, regarding the sales and marketing part, my role was to analyze the performance of the bonds and equity financial markets and mutual funds as well to develop weekly sell/buy/hold recommendations regarding BIL products. Once these sales recommendations were made, my role was to analyze the performance of wealth managers from BIL Europe, Asia and Middle East. Finally, once BIL products and wealth managers’ performances were analyzed, I had the opportunity to design relevant marketing content (pitch book containing the details of the financial products) for BIL 20,000 private banking clients.

Second, regarding the more strategic parts, I contributed to the management of two projects at the group level: digitalization of the commercial process on a selection of 2,500 products and repositioning of the private banking service offering targeting 2,000 customers.

Private banking

The financial concept that was the most linked to my experience at BIL is the concept of private banking. Private banking is the main subset of wealth management, it offers investment, banking and other financial services to high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) on different markets. The adjective “private” emphasizes a more consumer-centered approach than what is offered by retail banks since each client is usually assigned to dedicated relationship managers and benefits from tailor-made products. Historically, HNWI from different markets or private banks’ target, were individuals with liquidity over $2 million. However, now, it is possible to open a private banking account with cash and/or financial assets of $250,000. Hence, HNWIs segments that wealth management institutions such as private banks target can be divided into four categories based on their income:

  • Affluent: between $250,000 and $1 million
  • Lower HNWI: between $1 million and $20 million
  • Upper HNWI: between $ 20 million and $100 million
  • Ultra-High Net Worth individuals or UHNWI: over $100 million

Under one roof, private banks’ offering encompasses wealth management, tax and insurance services.

Pricing model

For these services, private banks can use three types of pricing models (Goyal et al., 2019):

  • “Standard” model: the client pays custody fees, transaction fees and management fees
  • “All-in fee” model: the client only pays management fees
  • “Performance fee” model: the client pays performance fees and custody fees

Challenges

Today, the private banking industry is facing many threats such as: digitalization, enhanced regulations, rising clients expectations but I would say one of the most important one I noticed in the wake of my internship is: negative interest rates, which is the second financial concept I will introduce here. Indeed, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2014 had to charge negative interest rates to fight the deflationary spiral. These negative interest rates (-0.5% since September 2019) are a big trouble for European banks such as the ones in Luxembourg: banks must now pay interests on their reserves to the ECB. The excess in bank reserves has exploded since the “Quantitative Easing” program of the ECB in 2015. Therefore, banks have paid €25 billion of negative deposit rate to the ECB since 2014 which had a had a considerable impact on banks’ profitability, equating to a 4% decline in profits for European banks in 2018 for instance (Honoré-Rougé, 2019).

To compensate these profits cuts, some European banks have started charging their clients on their cash deposits or take the risk to grant more risky loans to maintain a decent level of profitability (Arnold, Morris & Storbeck, 2019). However, despite these negative economic trends, Luxembourg is still the leading asset management center in the Eurozone. In Luxembourg, AUM increased to $4.9 trillion in 2020 (+5.4% from 2019).

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

Looking for an internship? Looking for a job? You may find useful information by reading other posts where students share their professional experience:

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Suyue MA Expeditionary experience in a Chinese investment banking boutique

   ▶ Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE In the shoes of a Corporate M&A Analyst

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI SimTrade: an eye-opener for gaining insights into the world of finance

Looking for an internship or a job in finance, you may also be interested in the following resources to prepare your interviews:

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Classic brain teasers from real-life interviews

Useful resources

Arnold, M., Morris, S., & Storbeck, O. (2019). European banks fear no escape from negative rates. The Financial Times, 1-3. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/93015730-d960-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

BIL. (2021). BIL, a key player in the Luxembourgish financial market. Retrieved 27 December 2021, from https://www.bil.com/en/bil group/the-bank/Pages/discover-BIL.aspx

Goyal, D., Zakrzewski, A., Mende, M., Alm, E., Kowalczyk, L., & Wachters, I. (2019). Solving the Pricing Puzzle in Wealth Management. Retrieved 28 December 2019, from https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/solving-the-pricing-puzzle-in-wealth-management.aspx

Honoré-Rougé, C. (2019). Les taux négatifs et leurs conséquences sur les banques de la zone euro. Retrieved 25 February 2021, from http://www.bsi-economics.org/1039-taux-negatifs-consequences-banques-zone-euro-chr

Relevance to the SimTrade Certificate

It relates to the SimTrade Certificate in the following ways:

About theory

  • By taking the Discover SimTrade course (Period 1), you will discover the SimTrade platform that allows investors (or their financial advisors or private bankers) to invest in the financial markets.
  • By taking the Market information course (Period 2), you will know more about how information is incorporated in the stock market price.

Take SimTrade courses

About practice

  • By launching the Sending an Order simulation, you will practice how financial markets really work and how to act in the market by sending orders.
  • By launching the Market order simulation and the Limit order simulation, you will practice market orders and limit orders that are the two main orders used by investors to build and liquidate positions in financial markets.

Take SimTrade courses

More about SimTrade

About the author

Article written by Hélène Vaguet-Aubert (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2021).

Asset valuation in the real estate sector

Asset valuation in the Real Estate sector

Ghali El Kouhene

This article written by Ghali El Kouhene (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2019-2022) discusses the valuation methods in the real estate sector.

Definition of a real estate

Real estate is a property, land, buildings, air rights above the land (with certain limitations) and underground rights below the land. The term “real estate” means real, or physical, property. It is the land and its attached constructions that represent a capital good that produces a flow of services over time. Therefore, land includes earth’s surface, lateral support and subjacent support. But it also includes materials under the surface such as substances, minerals oil and gas.

There are four types of real estate assets. First, we find residential real estate. It is a type of leased property, containing either a single family or multifamily structure that is available for occupation for non-business purposes. This includes both new construction and resale homes. Secondly, there is commercial real estate. They are property used exclusively for business purposes or to provide a workspace rather than a living space. All of them are owned to produce income. Thirdly, we can mention industrial real estate. There are generally two uses for industrial properties: companies make things, or they store things. These includes manufacturing buildings and property, as well as warehouses.

Finally, land is real estate or property, minus buildings and equipment that is designated by fixed spatial boundaries. Land ownership may offer the titleholder the right to natural resources on the land. Traditionally it is defined as a factor of production, along with capital and labor.

Importance of the real estate sector in the economy

According to the European Real Estate Forum, the real estate sector has a higher economic importance than several other sectors. Indeed, it makes a major contribution to GDP in the European Union and provides prosperity and jobs. The real estate sector contributed approximately 7% to the USA economy and 12% to the European economy.
Real estate represents the majority of the existing real capital and is particularly relevant too because of its additional function as provision for old age and protection against inflation.

The value of the world’s real estate reached US$281 trillion, the highest figure we’ve ever recorded. Residential real estate accounted for the largest share ($US220.2 trillion) of that huge figure.

Real estate is by far the most significant store of wealth, representing more than 3.5 times the total global GDP. For comparison, financial instruments like equities represent US$83,3 million, which is three times less than commercial real estate.

Global real estate universe in comparison

Source: Savills World Research

Why does the need for property valuation arise?

The need for property valuation arises in many decisions in real estate project like investing, managing, disinvesting and financing. Thereby, valuation is present throughout the life of real estate investment. It is not a unique need for real estate but common to any investment such as stock investment.

There are fundamental characteristics to be evaluated in the valuation process. Characteristics like the use of the asset (commercial, residential, etc.), the location, the antiquity (1st hand, 2nd hand), construction costs and surfaces.

Valuation values

What are the different types of value for a real estate asset?

According to the Royal Institution Of Chartered Surveyors standards (RICS) which offers qualifications and standards recognized in the real estate sector, a value is an estimated amount for which an asset or an obligation should be exchanged at the valuation date between a buyer willing to buy and a seller willing to sell, in a free transaction, after appropriate marketing, in which the parties have acted with sufficient information, prudence and without coercion. This specific definition is declined in several others values like equitable value, fair value or market value. For each value, different methods of valuation are used.

Which methods are used to appraise an asset?

The great diversity of real estate assets must be approached from different approaches in order to determine their value. The existence of comparable assets in the market, the type of use made of them, the cash flows that they may eventually generate, replacement costs or the state of development of the same opens up a wide range of valuation methodologies. In this way we can identify at least six different types of valuation methodologies applicable to the different types of real estate assets that we will classify into at least 14 large groups. The main axes of the valuation methodologies are: comparison, residual, capitalization and cash flows. It is important to know that each type of real estate asset has its preferred method of valuation. For example, the comparison method is mainly utilized for assets for own use (dwellings and premises mainly) and for rustic land. The concept for this method consists in comparing a property of known price and characteristics with the one we want to value. Regarding the discounted cash flow methodology, it consists in determining the market value of a property by estimating the cash flows generated by the property (mainly rents) during a determined period of time and the resale of the investment.

Reading the real estate market requires the development of an information tool. The study of the traditional approach has shown that the reliability of real estate valuation methods is intimately linked to the information available. Information is essential when it comes to asset valuation for each of the different methods (list of rents, the price per square meter etc.). The difficulty in the valuation process does not come from the methodology but from the availability of relevant information. To complete his/her analysis of the real estate deal, the expert can also consider the future instead of the past contained in historical data.

For example, the value of the real estate can be obtained by estimating the growth rate of future rents. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to develop new valuation models are based on machine learning (ML) algorithm.

How to invest in the real estate sector?

Real estate investment consists of acquiring a property not for the purpose of living in it, but as a savings investment to earn an income from it. It is considered as one of the most stable and profitable investments in the long term. For this reason, investing in real estate is not a trivial gesture: you must know enough about the state of the market and the different investment possibilities not to put your money in risky options.

Several reasons can push you to proceed to a real estate investment. First, it is a great way to build up a tangible and lasting estate. Secondly, investing in real estate enables to finance a property with the aim of making it your main residence later on, by means of rental investment. And lastly, it improves your purchasing power by collecting additional income.

There are several possibilities when it comes to investing in real estate. Among them, there is direct investment which means creating a property portfolio. Indeed, any private individual can firstly invest and acquire a property as a primary residence and later on acquire other properties for the purpose of making a rental investment in order to collect the rents. In the other hand, other types of investment such as indirect investment. The concept of indirect investment consists in buying shares of property company or Real Estate Investment Trust’s (REITS) which aims at the constitution, management and exploitation of a real estate portfolio. Therefore, this company manages real estate assets on behalf of its shareholders. Lastly, a real estate investment company (SCPI) is a collective investment vehicle which is very similar to REITS. Except that in return for this investment, investors receive social shares. Unlike company shares, these units are not listed on the stock exchange. These savings vehicles offer a very good market return in return for a moderate risk.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Clément KEFALAS My experience of Account Manager in the office real estate market in Paris

   ▶ Chloé POUZOL Mon expérience de contrôleuse de gestion chez Edgar Suites

About the author

Article written in March 2021 by Ghali El Kouhene (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2019-2022).

Organization of equity markets in the U.S.

Organization of equity markets in the U.S.

Bijal Gandhi

In this article, Bijal Gandhi (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022) talks about the organization of the equity markets in the U.S.

Give this article a read, if you wish to know more about the market participants, intermediaries, and the products in this segment.

Financial markets in the U.S. account for 46% of the global stock market value as of October 2020. The combined market capitalization of the US stock market stands at around 41.17 trillion thereby dominating the global financial landscape. It holds a long-standing reputation and prominence owing to factors like legitimacy, transparency, tight regulations, and availability of capital to fund some of the world’s largest companies.

Primary markets vs Secondary markets

Primary markets are the markets where new securities are issued by corporations to raise capital to finance their new investments. These new securities are offered to the investors for the first time. The corporation may raise capital through an Initial Public Offering (IPO), rights issue, or private placements. Corporations that are already listed may opt for a Seasoned Equity Offering if they wish to raise more capital through the sale of additional shares or bonds. The companies who wish to go public in US, must adhere to the compliance and filing of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission before the listing.

Once the securities are issued in the primary market, secondary market provides the investors with a platform to trade in these securities. This smooth exchange of securities between investors creates liquidity and price discovery. These transactions take place over stock exchanges like NASDAQ and NYSE Euronext.

Exchanges vs OTC markets

Exchange is a centralized marketplace to trade securities through a network of people. The exchange establishes a formal setting to ensure fair trading, transparency, and liquidity. The are several rules and regulations in place to eliminate frauds and unscrupulous activities.

The transactions which do not take place over a centralized exchange are known as over the counter markets. OTC markets are less transparent, and they are subject to fewer regulations. They are digitalized markets where participants quote different prices and act as market-makers. American depository receipts are often traded as OTC.

Market intermediaries

The organization of such a huge marketplace has resulted in the creation of several intermediaries and participants. Let us delve deeper into what role each of these stakeholders play in the U.S. financial market organization.

Stock exchanges

A stock exchange is the principal intermediary in the financial market organization of a nation. An exchange can be either a physical or an electronic platform which intermediates between corporations, government, and market participants. In the U.S., a stock exchange must register and comply with the norms of the SEC. It is only after that it can facilitate the process of buying and selling of financial instruments on its platform.

A stock is first listed on an exchange through initial public offering (IPO). The shareholders can participate in this initial offering which is also known as the primary market. These shares are then publicly bought and sold on the exchange or the secondary market.

According to Reuters, as of 2020, there are a total of 13 stock exchanges in the U.S. out of which NASDAQ and NYSE Euronext are the largest exchanges in the world.

Broker-dealers

An investor or trader cannot directly purchase shares from the stock exchange. They must do so through an intermediary called a broker. A broker acts as a link between the investor and the stock exchange. In US, a broker can either be an individual or a firm who is registered with the SEC and SRO (self-regulatory organization). The SEC defines a broker as “any person engaged in the business of effecting transactions in securities for the account of others”. Similarly, a dealer is “any person engaged in the business of buying and selling securities for his own account, through a broker or otherwise”.

Brokers also perform several other secondary functions such as:

  • Marketing, sale, and distribution of investment products
  • Ensuring liquidity and smooth flow of financial products in the open market
  • Operation and maintenance of trading platforms

They may also act as underwriters and placement agents for securities offerings.

Clearing agencies

Clearing agencies in US are broadly classified under two categories, Central counterparty (CCP) and Central securities depository (CSD).

A clearing agency is a CCP when it intercedes between the two counterparties by performing the role of a buyer to every seller and a seller to every buyer in a transaction. The following are the clearing agencies in the US:

  • National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)
  • Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC)
  • The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC)

A clearing agency is a CSD when it operates a centralized system for the safekeeping of securities and maintaining records of ownership, sale, and transfer. The Depository Trust Company in New York, U.S. performs the role of a CSD. It is also the largest depository in the world.

Regulatory agencies

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the US government regulatory body entrusted with the responsibility to protect the investors. Their primary goal is to supervise every intermediary and participant in the securities market to avoid any fraud or misconduct under its supervision. It ensures this through strict regulations, compliance, full disclosure, and fair dealing in the securities market.

Similarly, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) is an independent Federal agency established in the U.S. to regulate the derivatives markets (commodities, futures, options, swaps). The main responsibility of this agency is to ensure fair, transparent, efficient, and competitive capital markets.

Market participants

Corporations

Corporations are the most vital and primary participants in the capital market ecosystem. To raise capital for their operations, they issue new securities and instruments with the help of the intermediaries. They may do so by listing their shares on a stock exchange or by issuing debt instruments such as bonds. This opens avenues of investments for individuals and institutions and gives them a medium to invest, trade or park their funds.

Retail investors

Retail investors are nonprofessional individuals who either trade or invest in financial securities in their personal accounts. The amount of their investments is generally smaller with respect to institutional investors. They facilitate these transactions through a broker for a fee.

Institutional investors

Banks, mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and any other similar institution which invest large sums in the capital markets are termed as institutional investors. These investors are professionals and experts at handling funds and therefore there are several regulations by SEC that may specifically apply to them.

Investment banks

Investment Banks act as an intermediary between the corporations and investors. They play a major role in facilitating the transfer of funds from the lenders to the borrowers. Apart from that, they also assist the corporations in the sale and distribution of securities, bonds, and similar financial products. They aim to make a sale by connecting the corporations with investors who have similar risk and return appetite. Investment Banks perform several other ad-hoc functions including underwriting and providing equity research.

Robo-advisors

The most recent addition to the participants list is the robo-advisors. Retail investors often find it difficult to invest in the stock markets due to lack of knowledge and expertise. Robo-advisors are of great help here. They are digital platforms that study the financial situation of an individual and provides investment solutions through automation and algorithmic financial planning. These advisors require no human supervision and are therefore low cost. There are around 200 robo-advisors in the US. The robo-advisors like human advisors are subject to the registration and regulations under SEC.

Type of products

Stocks

The most traded instrument is the stock. There are two broad categories of stocks: common stocks and preferred stocks.

  • Common stocks: The investor in common stocks is entitled to both, the dividends, and the right to vote at shareholders meetings. It is a security which represents ownership of the company by the same proportion as its holding. In case of liquidation of the company, the shareholders’ right on the company’s assets are after that of the debt holders and preferred shareholders.
  • Preferred stocks: Preferred stock is more like a hybrid combination of equity and debt. Preferred shareholders have no voting rights, but they receive regular dividends unless decided otherwise. They have a priority over common stockholders in case of bankruptcy.

The choice of stock depends upon the investors risk appetite and goals. Investors may choose to invest in one or a combination of growth, value, income, or blue-chip stocks.

Market Index

Market index is a portfolio of stocks which represents a particular fragment of the financial market. The value of this index is derived from the underlying stocks and the weights attached to each of those stocks. The methodology to assign weights and calculate the index value may differ but the underlying idea to measure the fragment’s performance remains the same. In the US, they use the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index to gauge the performance of the US economy and the financial market.

Investors cannot directly invest in an index, therefore they can either invest in a mutual fund that follows that index or into index derivatives.

Derivative Instruments

Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset. The underlying instruments include stocks, market indexes, interest rates, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Futures, options, forwards, and swaps are the types of derivatives that are most traded in the US markets.

Investors use derivatives to hedge their risk while speculators use it to gain profits from the same.

Mutual Funds

The financial markets are complex and therefore retail investors often find themselves unable to make their financial decisions. This is where the mutual funds step in. These are funds that pool money from several investors to invest in different types of securities. These funds are professionally managed by fund managers for a small fee. The main goal of the fund manager is to produce profits for the investors. Mutual funds vary in terms of the underlying securities, investment objectives, structure, etc.

Mutual funds are popular due to the benefits derived by retail investors in terms of diversification, liquidity, and affordability. In US, mutual funds are managed by “investment advisors” registered under the SEC and they are obliged to file a prospectus and regular shareholder reports.

Exchange Traded Funds

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are like mutual funds, but unlike mutual funds, ETFs can be traded on the stock exchange and their value may or may not be the same as the net asset value (NAV) of the shares. An Index based ETF simply tracks a particular index and gives the investors an opportunity to invest in its components through the ETF. Actively managed ETFs are not based on an index but rather a stated objective which is achieved by investing in a portfolio of one or many assets.

Related posts

Useful resources

Relevance to the SimTrade certificate

The concepts about equity markets (secondary markets, trading, incorporation of information in market prices, etc.) can be learnt in the SimTrade Certificate:

About theory

  • By taking the Trade orders course, you will know more about the different type of orders that you can use to buy and sell assets in financial markets.
  • By taking the Market information course, you will understand how information is incorporated into market prices and the associated concept of market efficiency.

Take SimTrade courses

About practice

  • By launching the Send an Order simulation, you will practice how financial markets really work and how to act in the market by sending orders.
  • By launching the Efficient market simulation, you will practice how information is incorporated into market prices through the trading of market participants and grasp the concept of market efficiency.

Take SimTrade courses

About the author

Article written by Bijal Gandhi (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2020-2022).