How is a decision made by companies?

How is a decision made by companies?

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains how companies are organized to undertake the decision-making process…

What is a shareholder?

A shareholder is a person who owns part of the company’s capital, which is divided into shares.

A shareholder is therefore a person or institution that has invested money in a corporation in exchange for a “share” of ownership. This ownership is represented by ordinary or preferred shares issued by the company and held by the shareholders.

Shareholders of small and medium-sized private companies are often closely involved in the management of the company. They therefore contribute to the decision-making process on a regular basis. This is much rarer in large listed companies, where management teams take decisions on a day-to-day basis. In the case of the French company TotalEnergies, it would indeed be complex to take a decision by consulting all the shareholders, as more than 500,000 individual investors are shareholders in the company.

How do voting rights are attached to shares?

The capital is therefore represented by ordinary, or preference shares issued by the company and held by the shareholder.

An ordinary share is a simple share, which has a voting right associated with it and which is inseparable from it. A preference share, on the other hand, will allow its holder to benefit from certain advantages:
-financial: a preference share may be devoid of voting rights but in return allow its holder to benefit from priority dividends each year.
-control: a share with double voting rights may be financially less attractive than an ordinary share but at the same time offer twice as many voting rights as the latter.

Ordinary and preference shares therefore have different prices which fluctuate according to the control/financial balance they provide. They give shareholders rights to different proportions of the company’s profits and may or may not carry voting rights (i.e., the right to participate in the company’s decisions).

Who proposes a decision among companies?

The Board of Directors is a management body whose mission is to define its strategy by being a force of proposal to face the market context. The Board of Directors is therefore composed of:
• Directors (minimum of three and maximum of 18)
• A chairperson of the board of directors.

The chairperson of the board of directors is often also the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company: in this case he or she has the status of chairperson and chief executive officer. The chairman and chief executive officer are therefore a member of the company’s board of directors.

As for the rest of the Board of Directors, they are appointed by the company’s shareholders’ meeting. Some shareholders can therefore propose to work as a Director by applying for the job in front of their fellow shareholders. Once the Board of Directors is organized, they appoint the Chairman of the board of Directors and the decision-making process can start! Please bear in mind that in France only the Sociétés Anonymes (SA) and Sociétés par Actions Simplifiées (SAS) can legally create a board of directors.

Resources

“Who really decides in companies?” 1-hour conference with famous French CEOs

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A field…

▶ Frédéric ADAM Senior banker (coverage)

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

Exchange-traded funds and Tracking Error

Exchange-traded funds and Tracking Error

Micha FISHER

In this article, Micha FISHER (University of Mannheim, MSc. Management, 2021-2023) explains the concept of Tracking Error in the context of exchange traded funds (ETF).

This article will offer a short introduction to the concept of exchange-traded funds, will then describe several reasons for the existence of tracking errors and finish with a concise example on how tracking error can be calculated.

Exchange-traded funds

An exchange-traded fund is conceptionally very close to classical mutual funds, with the key difference being, that ETFs are traded on a stock exchange during the trading day. Most ETFs are so-called index funds and thus they try to replicate an existing index like the S&P 500 or the CAC 40. This sort of passive investing is aimed at following or tracking the underlying index as closely as possible. However, actively managed ETFs with the aim of outperforming the market do exist as well and typically come with higher management fees. There are several types of ETFs covering equity index funds, commodities or currencies with classical equity index funds being the most prominent.

The total volume of global ETF portfolios has increased substantially over the last two decades. At the beginning of the century total asset volume was in the low triple digit billions measured in USD. According to research by the Wall Street Journal total assets in ETF investments surpassed nine trillion USD in 2021.

The continuing attractiveness of exchange-traded index funds can be explained with the very low management fees, the clarity of the product objective, and the high liquidity of the investment vehicle. However, although especially the market leaders like BlackRock, the Vanguard Group or State Street offer products that come extremely close to mirroring their underlying index, exchange-traded funds do not perfectly track the evolution of the underlying index. This phenomenon is known as tracking error and will be discussed in detail below.

Theoretical measure of the Tracking Error

Simply speaking, the tracking error of an ETF is the difference in the returns of the underlying index (I for index) and the returns of the ETF itself (E for ETF). For a specific period, it is computed by taking the standard deviation of the differences between the two time-series.

Formula for tracking error

Theoretically, it is possible to fully replicate an index in a portfolio and thus reach a tracking error of zero. However, there are several reasons why this is not achievable in practice.

Origins of the Tracking Error

The most important and obvious reason is that the Net Asset Value (NAV) of index funds is necessarily lower than the NAV of its underlying index. An index itself has no liabilities, as it is strictly speaking an instrument of measurement. On the other hand, even a passively managed index fund comes with expenses to pay for infrastructure, personnel, and marketing. These liabilities decrease the Net Asset Value of the fund. In general, a higher tracking error could indicate that the fund is not working efficiently compared to products of competitors with the same underlying index.

Another origin of tracking error can be found in specific sector ETFs and more niche markets with not enough liquidity. When the trading volume of a stock is very low, buying / selling the stock would increase / decrease the price (price impact). In this case an ETF could buy more liquid stocks with the aim to mirror the value development of the illiquid stock, which in turn could lead to a higher tracking error.

Another source of tracking error that occurs more severely in dividend-focused ETFs is the so-called cash drag. High dividend payments that are not instantly reinvested drag down the fund performance in contrast to the underlying index.

Of course, transaction fees of the marketplaces can reduce the fund performance as well. This is especially true if large rebalancing efforts are necessary due to a change of the index composition.

Lastly, there are also ways to reduce the effects described above. Funds can engage in security lending to earn additional money. In this case, the fund lends individual assets within the portfolio to other investors (mostly short sellers) for an agreed period in return for lending fees and possible interest. It should be noted, that while this might reduce tracking error, it also exposes the fund to additional counterparty risk.

Tracking Error: An Example

The sheet posted below shows a simple example of how the tracking error can be computed. To not include hundreds of individual shares, the example transformed the top ten positions within the Nasdaq-100 index into an artificial “Nasdaq-10” index. Although the data for the 23rd of September is accurate, the future data is of course randomly simulated.

By using the individual weights of the index components and their corresponding weights, the index returns for the next three months can be computed.

Figure 1: Three-months simulation of “Nasdaq-10” index.
Three-months simulation of Nasdaq-10 index
Source: computation by the author.

At this point our made-up ETF is introduced with an initial investment of 100 million USD. This ETF fully replicates the Nasdaq-10 index by holding shares in the same proportion as the index. In this example only the management and marketing fees are incorporated. Security lending, index changes and transaction fees and dividends are omitted. Also, all the portfolio shares are highly liquid and allow for full replication. The fund works with small expenses for personnel of only ten thousand USD per month. Additionally, once per quarter, a marketing campaign costs additionally fifty thousand USD.

Figure 2: Computation of ETF return and tracking error.
Computation of ETF-return and Tracking Error
Source: computation by the author.

Calculating the net asset value (NAV) gives us the monthly returns of the fund which in turn allows us to calculate the three-month standard deviation of the tracking difference. Additionally, the Total Expense Ratio can be calculated as the percentage of expenses per year divided by the total asset value of the fund.

This example gives us a Total Expense Ratio of nearly 0.3 percent per annum which is within the competitive area of real passive funds. Vanguard is able to replicate the FTSE All-World index with 0.2 percent. However, the calculated tracking error is obviously smaller than most real tracking errors with only 0.0002, as only management fees were considered. Exemplary, Vanguards FTSE All-World ETF had an historical tracking error of 0.042 in 2021, due to the reasons mentioned in the section above.

Excel file for computing the tracking error of an ETF

You can also download below the Excel file for the computation of the tracking error of an ETF.

Download the Excel file to compute the tracking error of an ETF

Why should I be interested in this post?

ETFs in all forms are one of the major developments in the area of portfolio management over the last two decades. They are also a very interesting option for private investments.

Although they are conceptually very simple it is important to understand the finer metrics that vary between different service providers as even small differences can have a large impact over a longer investment period.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI ETFs in a changing asset management industry

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Passive Investing

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory

Useful resources

Academic articles

Roll R. (1992) A Mean/Variance Analysis of Tracking Error, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 18 (4) 13-22.

Business

ET Money What is Tracking Error in Index Funds and How it Impacts Investors?

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Micha FISHER (University of Mannheim, MSc. Management, 2021-2023).

Financial markets are not accounting enough for the Ukraine-Russia conflict

Financial markets are not accounting enough for the Ukraine-Russia conflict

Henri VANDECASTEELE

In this article, Henri VANDECASTEELE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2021-2022) reflects on the Ukrain-Russia conflict.

Geopolitical events and financial markets

Normally investors do not have to lie awake over political turmoil. On the contrary, if you go through the list of past geopolitical events and their impact on the market, you will see that they were almost always a reason to buy stocks. So, there is no reason to scare investors unnecessarily with geopolitical analysis. You must look at the broader macroeconomic context. It is always more relevant than the event itself.

Some historical perspective: the 1973 Yom Kippur War

In that respect, there is a problem with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, because it is different from the norm. A rare exception to the rule that geopolitical turmoil is a buying opportunity was the 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and some Arab countries. That war took place in the middle of an inflationary context. In the US, the government was driving inflation with 1960s social programs and spending on the Vietnam War. The US central bank was raising interest rates. And then came the Yom Kippur war and the subsequent oil embargo by the Arab countries, which drove up the price of oil, putting a cherry on top of the cake of existing inflation. It was a matter of bad timing.

Evolution of oil prices and Fed funds rate (1970-2022).
 Evolution of oil prices and Fed funds rate (1970-2022)
Source: Bloomberg.

What about today (update November 2022)

Today we have a similar situation due to the global inflationary environment. If Russia effectively invades hard, the market impact would be serious, with a solid correction for stock markets and higher oil prices. Financial markets are not taking this into account enough. 10-year U.S. government paper is considered the ultimate haven, but the yield on that paper does not show that investors are very concerned. If a Russian invasion does occur, gold and wheat are an interesting hedge. Both did well in the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea.

Evolution of the US 10-year interest rate.
Evolution of the US 10-year interest rate
Source: investing.com.

Link with market efficiency

This situation links to market efficiency in a semi-strong form (public news). Even with the information publicly available, the markets are not pricing in or correcting in the risk or consequences of a hard invasion of Russia into the Crimea. A hard invasion could potentially induce a lot of uncertainty and volatility into the market, with Russia’s strong foothold in the international energy market. Potential embargos and supply shortages could have a major impact on the prices and induce a hefty inflation increase. This is currently not priced in the markets and thus shows that the market was not efficient in the semi-strong form.

Useful resources

Bllomberg

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Interest Rates

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Henri VANDECASTEELE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2021-2022).

Approaches to investment

Approaches to investment

Henri VANDECASTEELE

In this article, Henri VANDECASTEELE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2021-2022) explains the two main approaches to investment: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis (FA) is a way of determining the fundamental value of a securities by looking at linked economic and financial elements. Fundamental analysts look at everything that might impact the value of a security, from macroeconomic issues like the state of the economy and industry circumstances to microeconomic elements like management performance. All stock analysis attempts to evaluate if a security’s value in the larger market is right. Fundamental research is often conducted from a macro to micro viewpoint in order to find assets that the market has not valued appropriately. To get at a fair market valuation for the stock, analysts often look at the overall status of the economy, then the strength of the specific industry, before focusing on individual business performance.

Fundamental analysis evaluates the value of a stock or any other form of investment using publicly available data. An investor, for example, might undertake fundamental research on a bond’s value by looking at economic variables like interest rates and the overall status of the economy, then reviewing information about the bond issuer, such as probable changes in its credit rating.

The aim is to arrive at a figure that can be compared to the present price of an asset to determine whether it is undervalued or overpriced.

Fundamental analysis is based on both qualitative and quantitative publicly available historical and current data. This includes company statements, historical stock market data, company press releases, financial year statements, investor presentations, information found on internet fora, media articles, and broker/analyst reports.

Technical analysis

Technical analysis (TA) is a trading discipline that analyzes statistical trends acquired from trading activity, such as price movement and volume, to evaluate investments and uncover trading opportunities.

Technical analysis, as opposed to fundamental analysis, focuses on the examination of price and volume. Fundamental analysis aims to estimate a security’s worth based on business performance such as sales and earnings. Technical analysis methods are used to examine how variations in price, volume, and implied volatility are affected by supply and demand for a security. Any security with past trading data can benefit from technical analysis. This includes stocks, futures, commodities, bonds, currencies and other securities. In fact, technical analysis is much more common in commodities and forex markets where traders focus on short-term price fluctuations.

Technical analysis is commonly used to generate short-term trading signals from various charting tools, but it also helps to improve the assessment of securities strengths or weaknesses compared to one of the broader markets or sectors increase. This information helps analysts improve their overall rating estimates.

Technical analysis is performed on quantitative data only that recent and historical, but publicly available. It leverages mainly market information, namely daily transaction volumes, stock price, spread, volatility, … and performs trend analyses.

Link with market efficiency

When linking both approaches to investment to the market efficiency theory, we can state that fundamental analysis assumes that financial markets are not efficient in the semi-strong sense, whereas technical analysis assumes that financial markets are not efficient in the weak sense. But the trading activity of both fundamental analysts and technical analysts make the markets more efficient.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Shruti CHAND Technical Analysis

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Trend Analysis and Trading Signals

Useful resources

SimTrade course Market information

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Henri VANDECASTEELE (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2021-2022).

What are the different financial products traded in financial markets?

What are the different financial products traded in financial markets?

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains what are the main financial products traded in financial markets.

What is a financial product?

Financial ‘products’ or ‘instruments’ are contracts that are traded on financial markets. Each type of product is traded in a specific financial market. In financial institutions, each type of product is managed by a dedicated team.

Financial products also differ in their type of risk and their risk level. As expected return and risk are positively related, (expected) returns on financial products also differ.

What are the three most simple types of financial products?

Shares

Investing in a share means acquiring a share in the capital of a company. The value of the share varies, depending in particular on investors’ expectations of the company’s earnings. These shares can be traded on the financial markets if the company is listed on a stock exchange.

As the value of the investment is not guaranteed, investing in shares is risky. It can be seen as a long-term investment with sometimes significant short-term fluctuations, as we can see at the moment with the disturbances linked to the war in Ukraine.

Bonds

Buying bonds therefore means lending at an interest rate and over a period known from the outset. For this reason, the cash flows of a bond can be computed from the outset. But financial risks (interest rate risk and credit risk) remain for such a product.

The risk associated with a bond is in fact that of a default by the lender, either that it cannot pay the interest or repay the capital. The stronger the borrower, the less risky the bond. As the expected return and risk of a bond are positively related, it is possible to anticipate the interest rate of a bond by looking at the rating of the company or the country according to the rating agencies (about credit rating you can read this post).

Foreign exchange

The foreign exchange market (or ‘forex’) is where currencies (dollar, euro, etc.) are traded. The exchange rates between currencies can fluctuate very quickly and create a currency risk in converting one currency into another.

What are the other types of financial products?

Options

Options are so-called “derivatives” because their value depends on the value of another asset, known as the “underlying”.

These underlyings can be simple financial products such as those mentioned above, or physical products (commodities) or stock market or weather indices, for example.1 in the Resources section) will not be affected by the new bond issue.

A special case: the Stock Options

The stock option program is a compensation tool available to companies with shares (listed or unlisted). It is generally not granted collectively, but rather seeks to build loyalty and motivate key employees for the company’s strategy by associating them with its results, such as top management.

Stock options are subscription options or stock purchase options. Certain employees or corporate officers have the right – but not the obligation – to buy shares in the company in which they work, at a price fixed at the time of grant. These are therefore similar to the options mentioned above, whose underlying asset is the share. However, the major difference is that, unlike options that can be traded on the financial markets, stock options are reserved for certain employees of the company who can only sell them if the bylaws enable them to do so.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit rating

Resources

Youtube 1-hour course explaining the main financial products for those who want to deepen their knowledge about it…

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

A quick review of the DCM (Debt Capital Market) analyst's job…

A quick review of the DCM (Debt Capital Market) analyst’s job…

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains what an analyst in Debt Capital Market (DCM) works on, on a daily basis.

What does DCM consist in?

The Debt Capital Market or DCM teams are used to cover the debt financing needs of organizations via financial markets. For this reason, they assist companies in the issuance of bonds and loans. This job is perfectly centered between corporate finance and financial markets! The clients of a DCM team are very broad and regroup corporate, financial institutions and governments.

The DCM analyst’s job is therefore a financing-related job like the Equity Capital Market (ECM). However, it differs by the nature of the financing offered: debt or equity.

Why would a company resort to DCM rather than ECM?

The main advantage of issuing debt rather than equity is that a company will not have to sell any share of its capital. The company’s shareholders will maintain their shares in the company, in order to keep control of it. The counterpart to this is the repayment obligation inherent in the financial debt, which does not exist when the company issues shares. Indeed, legally, there is no obligation for a company to pay dividends to its shareholders, whereas the repayment of interest and principal on the debt is contractually binding.

The DCM is therefore an effective solution to attract a large number of clients such as companies, but also actors unable to intervene in the equity markets: the governments. Indeed, governments, supranational institutions or sovereign wealth funds cannot sell part of their capital; they find in the bond market a source of liquidity. Traditionally, countries offering solid guarantees of interest payments and bond repayment – the United States, Germany and France – are the biggest players on the bond markets.

What does an analyst in DCM work on?

The DCM team of a bank works mainly on three dimensions: commercial relationship, structuring, and syndication. There are usually dedicated analysts devoted to each task.

Commercial relationship

Through the commercial relationship, the DCM team will try to understand the client’s needs and find a customized solution. The objective is therefore to define the amount of debt to be issued, based on the client’s financing needs, outstanding debt and solvency. This origination work therefore requires an overall view of the client’s profile and capital structure to ensure that its rating will not be affected by the new bond issue (about credit rating you can read this post.

Structuring

This dimension is more technical. This is the case when an investment bank has to offer more sophisticated products such as convertible bonds, bonds with warrants or bonds redeemable in shares. Structuring is mainly concerned with hybrid debt issues. These products offer different levels of risk for investors who will participate to the issuance.

Syndication

Syndication relates to oversized loans that requires allocation among different banks.

Why do DCM jobs appeal so much to business school students?

First of all, it is the dynamic working environment that investment banking constitutes that attracts young graduates. Like ECM, DCM is marked by a culture of high standards and maximum commitment, with highly responsive teams and extremely competent colleagues. Working in a high-powerded team is very stimulating, and often makes it possible to approach the workload with less apprehension and to rapidly increase one’s competence.

The position of DCM divisions within investment banks also makes the job really interesting because the DCM can interact with other departments like M&A. Because as we have seen together, a DCM job requires the ability to manage theoretical models, market trends and legal specificities. For that matter, a DCM career can be very challenging, and this is what young graduates seek for.

Resources

Youtube Interview with a DCM originator at Natixis

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

All posts about jobs in finance

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the ECM (Equity Capital Market) analyst’s job…

▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit rating

▶ Mohamed Dhia KHAIROUNI Analyse du documentaire « Inside Job »

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

Focus on the General Inspection in banks

Focus on the General Inspection in banks

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains the General Inspection in banks.

What is the General Inspection?

The General Inspection (GI) path is a 3-to-9-year training program used to identify and develop the banking leaders of tomorrow. Indeed, during this extensive Gradutate Program, the General Inspectors (GI) will experiment many divisions of the bank (retail banking investment banking, asset management) and approach their functioning from different perspectives.

The GI’s tasks can be cross-cutting, specific or regulatory, and they change approximately every 6 months, allowing General Inspectors to work on new subjects each time. For example, they may relate to the global strategy of the retail bank or to the foreign exchange risk control process in the trading room. For a French bank, the assignments may take place both in France and abroad and therefore involve a lot of travel. During their missions, the GIs will meet regularly with senior managers, and by training, enabling the GI team to submit its recommendations, also known as the audit report.

What banks recruit General Inspectors and how does the recruitment process go?

Banks such as BNP Paribas, BPCE Société Générale, and La Banque Postale in France, organize competitive exams each year. Candidates are mainly freshly graduate students from business schools and sometimes from engineering schools. Foreign banks like HSBC recruit also inspectors with a few years’ experience.

This exam consists of a written test, followed by an oral test, and finally a presentation in front of a grand jury.

The written test lasts about four hours and consists of strategic and operational cases in which you will have to demonstrate your ability to analyze financial data by using relevant indicators.

The oral test consists of a group interview of about eight candidates in the form of a simulation during which you will be observed by a jury. You will then take part in a traditional motivational interview with former managers of the General Inspection who will ask you questions about your career objectives.

Finally, if you pass these two stages, you will be invited to an HR interview which will allow you to debrief on a personality questionnaire, before taking part in the grand oral in front of a jury composed of the bank’s managers.

What are the main exits for General Inspectors?

After completing the General Inspection track in a bank, a General Inspector may move into management positions (like in the retail division of the bank) or more operational and hands-on positions (structuring, trading or financing).

There are also opportunities in support functions such as the Risk and Compliance Office departments, as well as in the Middle Office, given the appropriate training provided by the General Inspection. Exits to the Front Office as well as to Trading and M&A are relatively less easy given the lack of operational experience.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A field…

▶ Frédéric ADAM Senior banker (coverage)

Resources

BNP Paribas Job description: Inspector

BPCE Job description: Inspector

Société Générale Job description: Inspector

La Banque Postale Job description: Inspector

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

The different legal types of companies in France

The different legal types of companies in France

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains what the different legal types of companies exist in France.

What are the main legal forms of companies that someone can create in France?

The limited liability company (Société à Responsabilité Limitée or SARL)

The SARL offers the advantage of a simple structure in which the liability of the partners (“associés” in French) is limited to the amount of their Initial Investment in capital.

The initial capital of the SARL, of which the French law sets a minimum amount of one euro, is divided between at least two partners.

The one-person” limited liability company (“Entreprise unipersonnelle à responsabilité limitée” or EURL)

A special type of SARL is the EURL with only one partner.

Its operating rules are very similar to those of the SARL. The main difference concerns its tax system: its profits are automatically taxed as income in the name of the partner, although it is possible to opt for corporation tax.

The simplified joint stock company (“Société par Action Simplifiée” or SAS)

This relatively recent form of company is enjoying some success (especially for start-ups). Many SAs have been transformed into SASs. The rules governing it are similar to those of the SA. However, some measures make it simpler. For example, there is no minimum amount of share capital required, you can create a SAS with €1!

The public limited company (“Société Anonyme” or SA)

The SA is formed by at least two shareholders with a minimum capital of €37,000. The number of shareholders is at least seven if the limited company is listed on the stock exchange. It is managed by a chairman and a managing director (who may be one and the same person) and by a board of directors composed of at least three people.

It is subject to the obligation to appoint an auditor (“commissaire aux comptes” in French), especially if it is listed!

General partnership (“Société en nom collectif” or SNC)

This form of company is rarely used because it has the disadvantage of not protecting the assets of its partners: they are indefinitely and jointly and severally liable for the company’s debts out of their personal assets.

What are the main characteristics that must be borne in mind when creating a company in France?

Let’s review what are the advantages of the main types of companies:

SAS vs SA

Compared to the SA, the SAS offers the advantage of flexibility: the French law allows the partners to organize its operation freely in the firm’s status. The writing of the status requires the advice of a qualified professional, as it can lead to the development of rules that would be difficult to apply later.

Because of its cumbersome operating rules, the SA should be reserved for projects of a certain size. It is also used when shareholders who are not involved in the business want to exercise control in the board of directors. The main advantage of this status is that it allows a very large amount of share capital to be built up in order to finance expensive investments.

SARL advantage: limited liability

The main advantage of the SARL status is the limited liability of the partners. They are free to determine the amount of share capital and therefore the contributions they wish to make when setting up the limited liability company and are only liable for the amount of their contributions. For that matter, these companies are especially adapted for partners who wish to protect their personal capital.

SNC

No minimum amount is required for the initial capital, which can be a major advantage. On the other hand, the shares of the capital can only be transferred after having obtained the agreement of all the partners, which makes any change in the composition of the capital complex.

EURL advantage: protecting your personal capital

The EURL allows you to secure your personal assets. By creating such a company, your liability is in principle limited to the amount of your contributions. Your professional creditors cannot therefore sue you personally unless you have committed management errors. If you are not guilty of mismanagement in your capacity as manager and you have not given any personal guarantees in connection with your project, your personal assets are safe in the event of difficulties in the company.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the Private Equity field…

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A field…

Useful resources

URSSAF Registration of a company in France

Insee Information for the registration of a company in France

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

A quick review of the ECM (Equity Capital Market) analyst's job…

A quick review of the ECM (Equity Capital Market) analyst’s job…

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains what an analyst in ECM works on, on a daily basis.

What does ECM consist in?

The Equity Capital Markets or ECM teams are used to cover the equity financing needs of companies via financial markets. For this reason, they assist companies in initial public offerings (IPOs) and then seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), convertible bond issuances, capital increases or squeeze. The ECM analyst’s job is therefore a financing-related job like the Debt Capital Market (DCM), which differs, however, by the nature of the financing offered: debt or equity.

What does an analyst work on?

The analyst may first work on the origination of the deal. This involves, for example, proposing a financing solution to the client in parallel with a merger or acquisition (M&A) transaction. This will require a major pitch to convince the client that the proposed financing solution is the most suitable for its needs. On the other hand, the analyst will also have to work upstream on the technical aspects of the ECM transaction, i.e., the pricing of the transaction to reassure the client that the transaction will be successful. This is both a technical and commercial job, with strong relations with clients and other teams in the bank.

In parallel to this technical and commercial work and directly linked to the ECM transaction, the analyst must also work with the legal teams on the structuring of the transaction. This is often overlooked, but a share issue is a financial as well as a legal operation. That is why ECM teams also work on the tax and legal aspects of a share issuance or IPO for example.

Finally, the ECM analyst must regularly inform himself on the behavior of the financial markets in order to choose the most opportune moment for an IPO or a share issuance for example. The current context of massive inflation and instability linked to the war in Ukraine, for example, invites investors in the financial markets to be very cautious and therefore to invest less than usual. This is the reason why IPOs are so rare at the moment, as players wishing to go public fear the response of the primary markets. This work of monitoring the financial markets will be done by looking at the records on Bloomberg for instance, in order to obtain insights on the major market trends.

Why does ECM jobs appeal so much to students?

First of all, it is the dynamic working atmosphere that investment banking constitute that also attracts young graduates. ECM is marked by a culture of high standards and maximum commitment, with highly responsive teams and extremely competent colleagues. Working in a quality team is very stimulating, and often makes it possible to approach the workload with less apprehension and to rapidly increase one’s competence.

The position of ECM divisions within the Investment Banks also makes the job really interesting. Because as we have seen together, an ECM job suggests an ability to manage both theoretical models, market trends and legal specificities. For that matter, an ECM career can be very challenging, and this is what young graduates seek for.

What are the main exits for ECM?

What is special about ECM is that it is a profession between corporate finance and market finance, which means that it is possible to move into one of these two branches after working in ECM. Some go into Venture Capital or late stage start-ups to build on their knowledge of IPOs. Others go into Sales & Trading, although this seems to be more rare.

Resources

Coursera Lecture on ECM & how they work

Indeed 55 Capital Market Interview Questions (With Sample Answers)

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

All posts about jobs in finance

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the Private Equity field…

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A field…

   ▶ Frédéric ADAM Senior banker (coverage)

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

What are the missions of the financial departments of CAC 40 groups?

What are the missions of the financial departments of CAC40 groups?

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains what are the missions of the financial departments in CAC40 groups.

What is the use of the Finance Department?

In a sentence, the Financial Department should be able to answer the following question at any time: “Who should I pay, when and how ?”

The finance department is a key department of the company as it implements financial tools to assist in strategic decision-making, and thus prevents financial risks. In other words, the finance department helps plan the development strategy of the company by ensuring all financial resources are available at any time for example.

For that matter, the financial department of the company works neck and neck with the Board of Directors of the CAC40 Group which define the strategy of the Groups for the months and years to come. The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) will then ensure that the financial resources needed by the company are available to the company at any time of the strategy implemented.

What are the main topics that the Financial Department deals with?

There are a great number of missions that the Chief Financial Officer will have to conduct, but here are the main ones:

About the Group’s solvency: At every time, a CAC40 Group must be solvent, that means they are supposed to be able to reimburse their debts at the previously agreed-upon time. To assess the ability of the Group to do so, the Financial Department has to create Excel models to anticipate the debt repayment over a short, medium & long terms. Obviously, that means the Financial Department will also conduct many calls with the banks to ask for the implementation of credit lines.

Ensuring the management of the company’s cash flow, i.e., its capacity to collect sufficient income to cover its operating cycle: permanent monitoring and management of the teams (customer accounting, supplier accounting, cash flow, etc.), and of the operational activities. The implementation of treasury boards allows the monitoring of the above criteria.

To perform well the previous missions, the CFO (and the Finance Department more generally) has to organize meetings with the lenders, the suppliers and the clients in order to negotiate the payment periods. Indeed, to alleviate the treasury of the CAC40 Group, many solutions exist & it is the CFO’s job to invent new ones.

What is interesting and demanding as a CAC40 CFO?

First of all, since the role of the financial department is crucial to ensure the sustainability of a company because they deal about the solvency of the Group, this suggests that they are implicated in every decision made. They intervene upstream and downstream of each management decision and comes up with corrective measures in the event of financial problems. For that matter, working as a CFO of a CAC40 company requires the ability to see the big picture.

On the other hand, since the financial departments of CAC40 groups are audited every year, the finance department must keep a written record to justify any accounting item from a legal point of view. This requires a high level of organizational skills and a minimum of legal knowledge for the time when the Big 4 firms will conduct the audit of the Group.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the Private Equity field…

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A field…

Resources

Association Nationale des Directeurs Financiers et de Contrôle de Gestion

Youtube Interview with Gilles Bogaert, CFO of Pernod Ricard

Ebook on the future of CFOs…

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

Art as an asset class

Art as an asset class

Nakul Panjabi

In this article, Nakul PANJABI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2024) talks about the Art as an asset class.

Before delving into the economics of the art market and art’s significance as an asset class, let us first recollect the definition of an asset and an asset class. An asset broadly refers to a resource from which future economic benefits are expected to flow. An asset class is a group of assets that have similar characteristics and related risk and return behavior. Common examples of asset class would be equities, fixed-income investments, and real estate.

Why have you not invested in art yet?

Although an age-old investment, art as an investment has been available to only a minority of investors most of whom are high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) or even ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI). The prime reason is that the market faces an inelastic supply. In simple terms, there are very few goods in market to be traded which leads to higher prices of each item and therefore, at equilibrium, only few people with such means could afford the good. This economic explanation of the art market would be enough if there were very few art items available to buy. However, as intuition might suggest, that is not the case. The world is filled with pieces of art and people who own it. Does this fact weaken our previous argument? The answer is simply No. Even though there are lots of art item and anyone with some spare money can buy a piece of art, almost none of those items would be classified as an asset. Art as an Asset class has an extremely limited supply. Only a few pieces of art are purchased as Asset.

Features of the Art Market

Besides limited supply and consequently higher prices, there are few other factors as well that makes art an interesting asset class. Firstly, the investable art items are highly illiquid. Selling a collectible art item is a time-consuming complex process. It requires dealers, auctions and most importantly potential buyers who could afford such an expensive item that provides no economic benefits except capital appreciation. As one might guess, there are only a handful of individuals in the world who own a 50-million-dollar painting.

Secondly, the supply of this asset class is not closely related to the cost of producing it. Most goods’ supply is based on the cost of producing them. For example, it is cheap to produce toothpaste, so it has an elastic supply. If there is a strike at a toothpaste factory, then there would be less people to make the toothpaste. This will increase the wages (cost of production) paid to them. Now fewer toothpastes would be produced at a higher price. This will make the supply of toothpaste relatively inelastic. However, this economic phenomenon seems to be missing in the art market. The supply of this asset class is highly inelastic but the goods that represent investable art are very cheap to produce. The low cost of production does not dictate the supply of collectible art. It is the rarity of these goods that cause such an inelastic supply. A lot of Investable art items are works of deceased artists. Although they probably were very cheap to produce, it is impossible to create more of them. The rarity of such items makes them so valuable.

Art has a very high maintenance cost and most of the art do not provide any recurring cashflows. One source of art cashflows is the income generated from renting art to museums. Because there is a limit to the number of paintings that can be displayed in museums, most of the return from art investments is generated through capital appreciation. However, as we discussed before, it is not so easy to sell a piece of art. Then, why would anyone, let alone the most sophisticated of investors, buy such an asset? Well, there are a lot of reason why one might invest in art.

Reasons to invest in the art market

Low correlation

Art has a low correlation with traditional asset class. Fluctuations in Apple’s stock price would probably have little effect on the price of an authentic Picasso painting. Thanks to this low correlation, a collectible painting can act as a hedge against inflation and market crashes. According to a 2022 Citibank report, art has either a weak positive correlation or zero correlation with other asset classes.

Tax Benefits

Given the fact that the value of investable art does not derive from either its future cashflows or its cost of production, it is relatively easier to manipulate its price than it is for other assets. Manipulating the price of an asset is extremely useful to manipulate income and consequently taxes.

Money laundering

Art Investments have also been used for money laundering. The logic is straightforward. A 50-million-dollar painting can be much easily hidden than cash or gold of similar value.

Status Symbol

Art is a very efficient status symbol. The rarity of the collectible art items makes owning them a source of prestige. If your friend owns one of the only five paintings created by a famous renaissance painter, you don’t need to be an expert in art to judge the economic worth of the painting or of your friend.

What Future looks like for the art market

According to the annual report by Art Basel and UBS Global Art, the worldwide art sales crossed $65.1 billion in 2021. This reflects a 29% increase from the previous year.

Moreover, with increase in the trend of NFT trading, millennials are more interested in (digital) art than ever. According to 2021 study by Art Basel and UBS Global Art, millennials were the highest spenders on fine art in 2020.

Now, with an increase in art investing funds, the barriers for art investing have also been reduced tremendously. People, who could not invest in art because of high capital requirement and lack of expertise, can now do so by investing in an art fund.

Why should I be interested in this post?

As an (wealthy) investor, art represents an asset class which is not highly correlated with traditional assets. It then can be useful for asset allocation in terms of diversification. When you think of your personal portfolio, you may think of art.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Portfolio

▶ Hélène VAGUET-AUBERT Private banking: evolving in a challenging environment

▶ Nakul PANJABI Charging Bull on Wall Street

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Nakul PANJABI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2024).

Charging Bull on Wall Street

Charging Bull on Wall Street

Nakul Panjabi

In this article, Nakul PANJABI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2024) talks about the Charging Bull sculpture displayed on Wall Street.

About the Charging Bull sculpture

In mid of December 1989, a bronze sculpture of a bull in its charging position was dropped outside of the New York Stock Exchange. The Bull is a symbol of booming stock prices. Arturo Di Modica, an Italian-American artist, was responsible for this stunt. During the economically depressive period of late 80s, he intended to encourage optimism and hope for a prosperous future among the American Citizens. Anticlimactically, the sculpture was removed just after few hours but was placed just two blocks away from its original place.

Charging Bull sculpture on Wall Street.
Charging Bull sculpture on Wall Street
Source: Arturo Di Modica.

Although the Charging Bull has already become a global symbol for an upward stock price movements and prosperity, understanding the basics of Bull and Bear markets can be useful for Investment Management. Bull market represents the time period where asset and security prices are rising, and it reflects the heightened investor confidence in the financial markets. Conversely, Bear market represents a downward movement in security prices and an increased investor pessimism. The terminology evolves from the behaviour of the animals. Bull market derives its name from the upward attacking technique of a bull and the bear market from the downward attacking technique of a bear.

Price trends

Generally, fundamental investing deals with the fundamental value of the security rather than the movement of its price. However, it does not mean that price movements are completely irrelevant in investment decisions of an individual. It is useful to know whether the market is bullish or bearish. If the security is currently overvalued according to your fundamental analysis, then the ideal action would be to sell the security while it is overvalued. But if the price is expected to rise even higher in the near future, then the rational behaviour would be to sell the Security later at that higher price and to sell it now if the price is expected to dip. Judging the market trends is an important skill to maximise returns on investment.

The price trend approach and market efficiency

Classifying a market as bull or bear derives from studying the trends in prices of assets. The method to identify patterns in price movements and forecasting the direction of price using past market data is known as technical analysis’. Profiting from technical analysis requires the market to be inefficient. It simply means that the current stock price does not reflect all the information represented in the past price points as well as all the public and private information in the market. However, it is widely assumed that developed markets are usually efficient in the semi-strong sense. This means that the prices of the assets reflect all the information from past price points and all the information publicly available. Theoretically, in such a situation an investor cannot benefit (have abnormal returns) by using technical or fundamental analysis.

However, this does not mean that studying price trends is completely useless. In markets which are inefficient, using technical analysis might be even more profitable than fundamental analysis. Generally, the developing economies such as Africa have inefficient markets. In those markets analyzing the past price points might give a reasonable edge to forecast short-term asset prices. Using fundamental analysis can also be tricky in this case. If a stock is undervalued, then the rational behavior would be to buy the stock and wait for its price to increase. However, since the market is inefficient, it is very uncertain when the prices will reflect the public information and, consequently, whether the investor will make a profit or not. In such a case, technical analysis might still work as it relies on market sentiment.

Why should I be interested in this post?

The Charging Bull sculpture on Wall Street is part of the financial culture of every business school student. It is a must see when you visit New York City.

Bull and bear markets are terms that have to be well understood by every investor in financial markets.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Nakul PANJABI Art as a financial asset class

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA The animals of finance

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Trend Analysis and Trading Signals

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Moving averages

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Brownian Motion in Finance

Useful resources

Wikipedia Arturo Di Modica.

Antoine Bourdon (22/10/2021) Mort d’Arturo Di Modica, sculpteur du célèbre Charging Bull de Wall Street à New York Connaissances des arts.

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Nakul PANJABI (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2024).

A quick presentation of the Restructuring job…

A quick presentation of the Restructuring job…

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains the job of an analyst in Restructuring.

What does Restructuring consist in?

Restructuring is a term that encompasses all professionals working to assist companies in difficulty. In this market, various categories of actors are involved: debtors (often the company in difficulty), creditors (which may be banks), shareholders (of the company in difficulty) and managers.

Restructuring is an activity that comes to the aid of companies facing economic and financial difficulties in the course of their lives that could threaten their survival in the short or medium term. The particularity of this sector is that it requires both a real financial technicality and a legal technicality, which are invaluable during complex collective procedures.

This activity is particularly fashionable in the current context, marked by the post-covid period, and it should be noted that the restructuring profession generally does well in periods of crisis or post-crisis since the number of companies in difficulty increases.

What does an analyst in Restructuring work on?

There are several situations in which a company in difficulty may call on the services of a restructuring consultancy.

However, if a general methodology is to be given, the missions of a restructuring analyst are generally as follow:

Analysis of the company’s history and the choices that led it to find itself in this situation (collective procedure in France for example). The first step is therefore to determine how the company got into such difficulties. The objective is simply to understand the choices and events that led to this situation.

A strategic due diligence is then required: In order to understand the prospects for improving the company and its activity, the business plan submitted by the company must be carefully examined in order to gauge the company’s future ability to repay its creditors.

To do this, a comparative analysis of the business plans of the last 10 years compared to the results actually achieved may be judicious in order to gauge the realistic nature of the company’s management. A forecast analysis of the evolution of the company’s market is also essential to assess whether the company will evolve in a favorable context or not. A strategic analysis must complete this due diligence work to see if the business strategy implemented is consistent with the developments anticipated by the restructuring firm.

Definition of the sustainable debt level and production of a debt repayment plan: Next comes a turnaround plan to suggest ways to improve the company’s management and profitability. This may involve reducing the cost structure, requesting longer payment terms to relieve pressure on operating cash flow.

Finally, the company will have to define its sustainable debt level. The company will propose a new sustainable debt according to the estimates made by the Restructuring firm. This will allow the company to continue its activity under new conditions that will enable it to repay the old debts that have not been honored as well as the new debt intended for the continuation of the activity.

In doing so, the restructuring firm will enable the creditors to assess the company’s future capacity to honor its debts in the event of a continuation of its activity under the terms proposed in the turnaround plan.

What is interesting & demanding in Restructuring?

First of all, a restructuring analyst can work on extremely complex cases, both because of the number and nature of the players involved and because of the situations of the companies in difficulty.

Indeed, if all economic crises are different, it is also because all the events that cause them have a different impact on companies. This is why each restructuring assignment is different from another, and this is an aspect that many professionals in this sector stress.

However, this diversity of subjects obviously suggests complexity since each subject is not like any other. On the other hand, the topics encountered are related to both legal and financial considerations, which requires skills in Law as well as in Financial Modelling. Profiles with these two facets are therefore highly appreciated.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the Private Equity field…

▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A field…

▶ Frédéric ADAM Senior banker (coverage)

Useful resources

KPMG’s definition of Restructuring

An article about how Restructuring creates value for companies…

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

Understand the mechanism of inflation in a few minutes?

Understand the mechanism of inflation in a few minutes?

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains everything you have to know about inflation.

What is inflation and how can it make us poorer?

In a liberal economy, the prices of goods and services consumed vary over time. In France, for example, when the price of wheat rises, the price of wheat flour rises and so the price of a loaf of bread may also rises as a consequence of the rise in the price of the raw materials used for its production… This small example is only designed to make the evolution of prices concrete for one good only. It helps us understand what happens when the increase in price happens not only for a loaf of bread, but for all the goods of an economy.

Inflation is when prices rise overall, not just the prices of a few goods and services. When this is the case, over time, each unit of money buys fewer and fewer products. In other words, inflation gradually erodes the value of money (purchasing power).

If we take the example of a loaf of bread which costs €1 in year X, while the price of the 20g of wheat flour contained in a loaf is 20 cents. In year X+1, if the 20g of wheat flour now costs 22 cents, i.e., a 10% increase over one year, the price of the loaf of bread will have to reflect this increase, otherwise the baker will be the only one to suffer the increase in the price of his raw material. The price of a loaf of bread will then be €1.02.

We can see that here, with one euro, i.e., the same amount of the same currency, from one year to the next, it is not possible for us to buy a loaf of bread because it costs €1.02 and not €1 anymore.

This is a very schematic way of understanding the mechanism of inflation and how it destroys the purchasing power of consumers in an economy.

How is the inflation computed and what does a x% inflation mean?

In France, Insee (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques in French) is responsible for calculating inflation. It obtains it by comparing the price of a basket of goods and services each month. The content of this basket is updated once a year to reflect household consumption patterns as closely as possible. In detail, the statistics office uses the distribution of consumer expenditure by item as assessed in the national accounts, and then weights each product in proportion to its weight in household consumption expenditure.

What is important to understand is that Insee calculates the price of an overall household expenditure basket and evaluates the variation of its price over time.

When inflation is announced at X%, this means that the overall value spent in the year by a household will increase by X%.

However, if the price of goods increases but wages remain the same, then purchasing power deteriorates, and this is why low-income households are the most affected by the rise in the price of everyday goods. Indeed, low-income households can’t easily cope with a 10% increase in price of their daily products, whereas the middle & upper classes can better deal with such a situation.

What can we do to reduce inflation?

It is the regulators who control inflation through major macroeconomic levers. It is therefore central banks and governments that can act and they do so in various ways (as an example, we use the context of the War in Ukraine in 2022):

They raise interest rates: when inflation is too high, central banks raise interest rates to slow down the economy and bring inflation down. This is what the European Central Bank (ECB) has just done because of the economic consequences of the War in Ukraine. The economic sanctions have seen the price of energy commodities soar, which has pushed up inflation.

Blocking certain prices: This is what the French government is still doing on energy prices. Thus, in France, the increase in gas and electricity tariffs will be limited to 15% for households, compared to a freeze on gas prices and an increase limited to 4% for electricity in 2022. Without this “tariff shield”, the French would have had to endure an increase of 120%.

Distribute one-off aid: These measures are often considered too costly and can involve an increase in salaries.

Bear in mind that “miracle” methods do not exist, otherwise inflation would never be a subject discussed in the media. However, these three methods are the most used by governments and central banks but only time will tell us whether they succeed.

Figure 1. Inflation in France.
Sans titre
Source: Insee / Les Echos.

Useful resources

Inflation rates across the World

Insee’s forecast of the French inflation rate

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Bijal GANDHI Inflation Rate

▶ Alexandre VERLET Inflation and the economic crisis of the 1970s and 1980s

▶ Alexandre VERLET The return of inflation

▶ Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE Inflation & deflation

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

The abandonment of the TF1-M6 merger: what happened?

The abandonment of the TF1-M6 merger: what happened?

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains how the fusion of the 2 biggest French TV companies has failed…

What was planned & why?

It was in May 2021 that the project to bring together the two French television channels was announced. On the one hand, TF1, whose 2020 turnover exceeds 2 billion euros; on the other hand, M6 with a turnover of 1.2 billion euros.

In the context of the loss of speed of French television channels in the face of fierce competition from the multiplying streaming platforms such as Netflix, Disney+ and Prime Video, the two television groups had deemed it strategic to come together in a giant merger.

Indeed, if we look at TF1’s revenues in 2020, they may reach more than €2 billion, but this means a notable drop of €256 million compared to 2020, i.e., a drop of 11% in its turnover.

It is therefore in a context of loss of market share that the two French television giants announced their desire to merge. A merger would have enabled these two players to combine a total of 40% of the television audience and 70% of the television advertising market.

This risk of an ultra-dominant position in France was also the source of complications for the two groups, which estimated that they could achieve economies of scale of nearly €300 million.

What happened after the announcement?

Well, after the announcement, the French Competition Authority (l’Autorité de la concurrence in French) announced that it had started a report on the consequences of a potential merger between the two groups.

The result of this report was made known on July 27, 2022: the TV channel groups were asked to divest themselves of some of their larger channels to satisfy the market monopoly issues.

According to this report, it was suggested that the M6 group should, for example, have divested itself of the M6 channel as well as TFX, 6Ter and Paris Première, which was not possible. The Directorate-General for Competition, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Control suggested to the competition authority that the new entity should sell W9 or TMC.

Why haven’t M6 & TF1 accepted to sell some TV channels?

First of all, at the beginning of the announcement of the merger project, the management of the two groups argued that their so-called hegemony on the television advertising market was non-existent.

One of their strong arguments was to point out that the market to be considered was not only that of television advertising, but rather the market for advertising on broadcasting platforms. This market would then effectively include television but also advertising on streaming sites or on-demand content platforms.

This argument was rejected by the competition authority, which considered that the market to be considered remained that of French television advertising and that an entity with 75% of the market share was therefore unthinkable, which is why TV channels had to be sold.

Useful resources

Autorité de la concurrence

Group M6’s website

Group TF1’s website

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the M&A job…

   ▶ Suyue MA Analysis of synergy-based theories for M&A

   ▶ Basma ISSADIK My experience as an M&A Analyst Intern at Oaklins Atlas Capital

   ▶ Raphaël ROERO DE CORTANZE In the shoes of a Corporate M&A Analyst

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

What are LBOs and how do they work?

What are LBOs and how do they work?

Louis DETALLE

In this article, Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023) explains why LBOs are so trendy and what they consist in.

What does a LBO consist in & how is it built?

LBO stands for a Leverage Buy-Out. It means a company acquisition which is funded with a lot of debt. Often, when an LBO is performed, 70% of the funds used for the acquisition come from debt, the 30% left being equity.

Figure 1. Schematic plan of the organization of an LBO.

Sans titre
Source: the author.

To perform an LBO, the company wishing to buy the company called Target in this example will have to create a Holding company specially for this purpose. The holding will then take on some debt with specific lenders (banks, debt funds) under the form of loan or bonds. After that, the holding will have both some initial equity from the company wishing to acquire Target and some debt to buy Target.

What happens after the target has been bought?

Well, after the target has been bought, since the target company has an operating activity which motivated the acquiring company to buy it, this means that the target company had great financial performance. And it better to be the case! Otherwise, the large amount of debt taken for the operation will never be reimbursed to the lenders.

The principle is that target’s financial cash flows will be redistributed to the holding in the form of dividends, and the holding will use these dividends to pay back the debt to the lenders until all debt is reimbursed.

What makes a company a good LBO target?

A good LBO target should respect a few conditions related to the target company: important operating cashflows, a mature market, A company whose development cycle is over.

Important operating cashflows

First & foremost, without great cashflows, the holding will never be able to reimburse the debt taken with the dividend if they are insufficient. For that matter, the company targeted for the LBO should have both regular & important cashflows.

A mature market

When looking at the bigger picture, the company willing to acquire a target with a LBO must make sure that the market in which the potential target evolves is stabilized. Because LBO means major financial risk due to the amount of debt involved, a company cannot also add operational risk.

A company whose development cycle is over

Once again, the target company will ensure the reimbursement of a high debt. This is why all capital expenditures (CAPEX) and major investments such as machines, fleets of vehicles should have been already done.

Useful resources

Vernimmen’s book chapters on LBOs

Youtube video on a LBO Case Study

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Frédéric ADAM Senior banker (coverage)

   ▶ Marie POFF Book review: Barbarians at the gate

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Analysis of Barbarians at the Gate movie

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Louis DETALLE (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2020-2023).

My experience as an intern of the Wealth Management Department in Hwabao Securities

My experience as an intern of the Wealth Management Department in Hwabao Securities

Wenxuan HU

In this article, Wenxuan HU (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2021-2023) shares her internship experience as an intern in the Wealth Management Department in Hwabao Securities in China.

The Company

Hwabao Securities is a securities company of China Baowu Steel Group, one of the world’s top 500 companies. With the strong support of shareholders, Hwabao Securities adheres to the business purpose of “creating value for customers, opportunities for employees, returns for shareholders and benefits for society” and continues to provide professional, high-quality and personalized comprehensive financial services for investors.

Logo of Hwabao Securities
Logo Hwabao Securities
Source: Hwabao Securities.

Wealth Management is an important business unit of Hwabao Securities. From 2019 to 2021, approximately 80% of Hwabao Securities’ revenue is derived from wealth management business and securities proprietary business.

Headquarters of Hwabao Securities
Headquarters Hwabao Securities
Source: Hwabao Securities.

My Internship

My missions

I worked as an intern in the Wealth Management Department of Hwabao Securities. I was mainly responsible for supporting the department staff in business analysis and compliance management.

I coordinated and analyzed the company’s 2021 interim brokerage business operation. In practice, I used the Vlookup function and pivot table, etc. to count the market share of the sales department, business revenue, commission breakdown, etc., and created data visualization charts to report to the company president and other managers in the interim meeting. In addition, I calculated the performance of the marketing staff. Based on their performance I adjusted their rank.

Moreover, I was responsible for investor eligibility management (a review system that requires institutions to Know Your Customer( KYC) and identify the customer’s risk tolerance) and branch compliance training and participated in developing compliance test questions for branch heads. In addition, I created a PowerPoint presentation for the training of new regulations of positive repo risk control and compliance management work report to assist the compliance officer in personnel training. I also assisted the compliance officer in completing the company’s risk compliance management work, preparing and integrating multi-departmental internal control compliance checklists, and formulating branch compliance cross-check work plans. I wrote an article about typical case of compliance to improve the construction work of the company’s compliance system. The article was appreciated by the department manager and the staff of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE).

Required skills and knowledge

The Wealth Management Department is an important department of a financial institution, directly managing all branches and sales staff, and an important line of defense to ensure business compliance. Working in the Wealth Management Department requires less computer skills and mathematical abilities but requires financial knowledge and legal background. Interns are required to keep an eye on changes in market regulations to assess the risk of financial transactions between the company and its clients. Interns also need to have strong communication skills and be willing to give advice to colleagues in different departments. In addition, departmental staff should also have a high level of ethics and self-discipline and adhere to the legal bottom line.

What I have learnt

My internship at Hwabao Securities gave me a good understanding of the composition of the entire financial institution and the operation of the financial market. This experience allowed me to master many financial terms and trading processes and raised my awareness of compliance and the different types of risks related to investments. The knowledge I learned in class was also applied during the internship, such as money and credit, macroeconomics, credit management, bank management, risk management, compliance management, and law.

While writing the article about the revision of SSE’s investor eligibility management regulations, I also found areas where compliance management could be improved. My article was called “Dispute over account opening for the visually impaired – enhancing investor satisfaction with personalized services”. In the article, the investor’s application for online account opening at the company was rejected due to the investor’s visual impairment and the company’s lack of corresponding hardware facilities. In order to effectively protect the rights and interests of vulnerable groups, the company developed a personalized off-site account opening business process applicable to the visually impaired investor. The company took several measures to take care of the physical conditions of special groups while achieving compliance. For example, the company let the investor open the account offline with professional staff, rather than online. To ensure compliance, the company informed the investor of the investment risks in detail and made a recording.

The article was adopted and commended by SSE as China’s management methods for special group investors are not yet perfect. For special groups, under the condition of meeting the requirements of regulatory laws and regulations, providing better and more humane services in a targeted manner can better protect the interests of investors. Actively fulfilling social responsibility can reflect the social responsibility of enterprises.

Three key financial concepts

Here are three useful financial concepts I learned in Wealth Management Department.

Anti-money-laundering

Money laundering is the process by which monetary gains are cleansed from their illegal origins. The money laundering process has three stages and often incorporates an important international dimension: placement, layering, and integration. Financial institutions are often used, wittingly or unwittingly, by criminals in this cleansing process.

For securities firms, there are usually a variety of measures in place to fight money laundering:

  • Establish various anti-money laundering systems.
  • Establish internal working mechanism, staff with professional personnel and improve operation process.
  • Improve business systems to meet the needs of AML work and ensure accurate and efficient information collection.
  • Identify customers and reasonably classify and adjust customer risk levels. Strengthen identification and supervision for high-risk customers or accounts.
  • Manage customer information, including identity information and transaction records.
  • Establish abnormal transaction detection indicators and models to identify large or suspicious transactions.
  • Conduct anti-money laundering assessments to provide system-wide risk prevention capabilities.
  • Organize anti-money laundering training and strengthen training for personnel in key positions to effectively communicate the latest regulatory requirements.

The Eligibility Management of Investors

The Eligibility Management of Investors is an obligation that sell-side institutions should fulfill for investors. (A sell-side institution is a party that sells its own products or services. Unlike the physical industry, sell-side institution in the financial industry sell virtual products, such as industry research reports, liquidity services, financing services, etc.) The investor eligibility management system was established by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX), taking into account the characteristics of the stock index futures market. The system requires financial institutions to understand their customers, objectively and comprehensively measure their risk appetite and risk-taking ability, and adhere to the principle of “providing the right products to the right investors”. The eligibility obligation was first introduced in the U.S. to regulate misconduct by securities firms. In recent years, the content of the appropriateness obligation has been gradually enriched and improved, and has played an increasingly important role in the trials of Chinese courts at all levels.

The eligibility management of investors has become a direct legal basis for investors to seek remedies in financial disputes. The purpose of investor suitability management is to ensure that customers can make investment decisions and bear the resulting benefits and risks on the basis of a full understanding of the risks of the relevant financial products. In essence, the investor eligibility management system is the investor protection system.

Repurchase Agreement and Reverse Repurchase Agreement

In my internship, I was responsible for compliance training for staff. I produced PowerPoints on the new regulations for Repurchase Agreement risk control.
Repurchase Agreement (Repo) is a transaction in which a party pledges a certain size of bond to raise funds and promises to repurchase the pledged bond at a later date. It is also one of the open market instruments frequently used by The People’s Bank Of China (PBC), which can achieve the effect of repatriating funds from the market by using positive repo operations. Compared with PBC bills, Repurchase Agreement will reduce operating costs, while locking in funds more effectively and reducing liquidity.

Reverse Repurchase Agreement is a transaction in which the PBC purchases marketable securities from a primary dealer and agrees to sell the marketable securities to the primary dealer on a specific date in the future. Reverse Repurchase Agreement is an operation in which the PBC puts liquidity into the market, and the expiration of Reverse Repurchase Agreement is an operation in which the PBC takes back liquidity from the market, called Repurchase Agreement. Simply put, a Reverse Repurchase Agreement is a transaction in which the investor actively lends funds and obtains a bond pledge is called a Reverse Repurchase Agreement transaction, at which time the investor is the financier who accepts the bond pledge and lends the funds.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Wenxuan HU My internship experience as industry research assistant in Industrial Securities

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Classic brain teasers from real-life interviews

Useful resources

Hwabao Securities

Shanghai Stock Exchange

The People’s Bank Of China (PBC)

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)

China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX)

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Wenxuan HU (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2021-2023).

My internship experience as an industry research assistant in Industrial Securities

My internship experience as an industry research assistant in Industrial Securities

Wenxuan HU

In this article, Wenxuan HU (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2021-2023) shares her internship experience as an industry research assistant in Industrial Securities which is a securities company in China.

The Company

Industrial Securities is a integrated, innovative, conglomerate and international Chinese securities company approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In May 2022, Industrial Securities was listed in the Forbes 2022 Global 2000 list of companies. As of the end of June 2022, the Group had total assets of 238.2 billion RMB and over 10,000 employees at home and abroad. The company has developed into a securities and financial holding group covering securities, funds, futures, asset management, equity investment, alternative investment, industrial finance, offshore business, regional equity market and other professional fields. The company’s core businesses rank among the top in the industry.

Logo of Industrial Securities
Logo Industrial Securities
Source: Industrial Securities.

Industrial Securities adheres to the “industry-oriented” driving force, creates a unique financial ecological alliance, forming a complete ecological chain that runs through the life cycle of enterprises and industries.

Headquarters of Industrial Securities
Headquarters Industrial Securities
Source: Industrial Securities.

My Internship

My missions

During my internship, I work in the Home Appliance Group, which belongs to Industrial Securities. Home Appliance Group is composed of research analyst firm focusing in the home appliance industry.

I was mainly responsible for writing company reports and medium-term strategy reports about firms in the home appliance industry. I was also exposed to how to value companies with Excel and various databases.

I used Wind, Euromonitor and other databases, combined with expert interviews, to analyze the development dynamics of companies like Bear which produces small appliances like blenders, kettles, air fryer, etc. I wrote reports that compared the company with its peers from the perspective of products, channels and marketing, and I found out the competitive advantages of the company. I created over 20 charts in the report to demonstrate its high cost-performance ratio, multiple segmentation categories, and mature online channels. I also tracked the interim reports of leading companies in mature foreign markets, such as Electrolux, in terms of revenue and profit by region, to compare and analyze with major domestic home appliance brands.

I also studied the characteristics of the long-tail small home appliance market where it is located. Long-tail small home appliances refer to home appliances with small demand and sales scale (contrary to large home appliances like dish washers and laundry machines).

In addition, I independently collected information to analyze the market size, financial indicators, and the company’s product channels of XGIMI, a leading company in the Chinese projector industry. I assisted the analyst to create a 55-page roadshow PowerPoint.

In the process of writing the report, I not only honed my analytical and presentation skills and learned to be graphic in the report, but also learned about the market situation of China’s home appliance industry. For example, I found that the two waves of the Covid pandemic in 2020 and 2022 showed different dynamics in terms of impact on the growth of demand for home appliances in China. The first wave of the pandemic increased the home cooking scenario; young consumers purchased basic, just-needed small appliances. The first wave of the pandemic led to an outbreak of live e-commerce, with online sales becoming the main channel for home appliance consumption, which drove rapid growth in demand for small appliances (like blenders and nutri-pots). The second wave of the pandemic has hampered logistics in some areas, and after 2020, the category of basic small home appliances was gradually saturated, and the demand was not fully released. The pandemic pushed consumers to form healthy living concepts and home cooking habits, demand shifted from basic appliances to advanced appliances. This pushed the industry product structure. So, I really felt the impact of the pandemic (a Black Swan) on the market in practice. For investors and companies, any major event means both challenges and opportunities.

Required skills and knowledge

When starting out, interns usually need to learn to write meeting minutes quickly and use Excel to do some simple calculations and data summaries. This is more of a test of the student’s information gathering skills and basic computer skills.

As we become familiar with the work, we need to apply our financial knowledge, understand industry dynamics, develop market insight and learn to express our opinions clearly. This includes being able to read company financial reports, fully analyze company operations, and make predictions about the future.

What I have learnt

During my internship I worked with valuation models. Valuation modeling has always been an important section in company research or industry research reports. For investors, financial projections provide a visual representation of the underlying company’s operations and future state of development. Also, students looking for jobs in investment banks, equity research analyst firms and even consulting firms, need solid modeling skills.
The steps of valuation modeling financial projections are as follows:

  • Forecast operating income and split revenue (different products and business, domestic vs foreign, etc.). Then forecast costs and expenses to complete the income statement forecast.
  • Forecast the balance sheet and complete the forecast for all accounts except for the reserved matching items (money funds and financing gap).
  • Prepare the cash flow statement, and calculate the monetary funds and financing gap on this basis.
  • Fill in the vacant monetary funds and financing gap in the balance sheet, and match the balance sheet.

In fact, the complete financial modeling requires a lot of financial accounting knowledge and requires to be careful and conscientious, otherwise, the data can easily be wrong. On specific financial items, analysts need to mobilize financial knowledge to fill in the numbers. For example, depreciation and amortization are calculated with the fixed assets and intangible assets in the balance sheet forecast. Then we can go back to the income statement to fill in the two vacant cells. In the internship, I found that financial modeling is closely related to the financial management and financial statement courses we studied in university, so we still need to firmly grasp the basics of finance before seeking employment.

Key financial concepts

The discounted cash flow (DCF) model is a standard valuation method, which aims to calculate the value of a company based on the projected future cash flows of the company discounted to the present at the discount rate (weighted-average cost of capital or WACC).

Basic Formulas

Entreprise value formula

Where EV means the enterprise value, FCF free cash flows, WACC the weighted-average cost of capital, and TV the terminal value.

Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow

We can predict future turnover, expenses, tax rates, etc. by extrapolating the past or imagining the future of the company). Although this part of the formula is relatively complex, usually in practice the analysts will use the Excel formula or Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to collate the various subjects, greatly simplifying the steps of financial modeling.

WACC

wacc formula

Where D represents the market value of the company’s debt, E the market value of equity capital, and t the income tax rate.
The Cost of equity can be calculated by CAPM model:

cost equity formula

Where:

Risk free rate is the rate of return that can be obtained by investing money in an investment object without any risk.
β, also known as the beta coefficient, is a risk index that measures the price volatility of an individual stock or stock fund relative to the overall stock market.
Market risk premium, also known as equity risk premium or market risk return, refers to the difference between the return on a market portfolio and the risk-free rate of return. It measures the rate at which investors are paid for taking risk.
The Risk free rate can be the yield of the country’s national debt and β can be queried through the Wind database, such as the last three years of β.
Market risk premium is sometimes a forecast value in practice.
Cost of debt is the after-tax cost of debt. It is necessary to multiply the pre-tax cost by (1-t).

Terminal Value Calculation

To calculate the terminal value, we can use the Gordon Growth method to estimate the value based on its growth rate into perpetuity.

The Gordon Model, also known as the constant-growth model, is a special case of the dividend discount model, which reveals the relationship between the stock price, the expected base period dividend, the discount rate and the fixed growth rate of the dividend. The model has three assumptions:

1. The dividend payment is permanent in time;
2. The dividend growth rate is a constant;
3. The discount rate in the model is greater than the dividend growth rate.

The terminal value is extrapolated from the Gordon model:

cost equity formula

Where g is perpetual growth rate which means that the company has perpetual growth rate and return on invested capital. The perpetual growth model assumes stable and sustainable growth in the long term. In practice, g is usually a conservative figure.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about professional experiences

   ▶ Wenxuan HU My experience as an intern of the Wealth Management Department in Hwabao Securities

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Classic brain teasers from real-life interviews

Useful resources

Industrial Securities

Wind Database

China Securities Regulatory Commission

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Wenxuan HU (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2021-2023).

Time Series Forecasting: Applications and Artificial Neural Networks

Time Series Forecasting: Applications and Artificial Neural Networks

Micha FISHER

In this article, Micha FISHER (University of Mannheim, MSc. Management, 2021-2023) discusses on the applications of time series forecasting and the use of artificial neural networks for this purpose.

This article will offer a short introduction to the different applications of time-series forecasting and forecasting in general, will then describe the theoretical aspects of simple artificial neural networks and finish with a practical example on how to implement a forecast based on these networks.

Overview

The American economist and diplomat John Kenneth Galbraith once said: “The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”. Certainly, the failure of mainstream economics to predict several financial crises is testimony to this quote.

However, on a smaller scale, forecast can be very useful in different applications and this article describes several use cases for the forecasting of time series data and a special method to perform such analyses.

Different Applications of Time Series Forecasting

Different methods of forecasting are used in various settings. Central banks and economic research institutes use complex forecasting methods with a vast amount of input factors to forecast GDP growth and other macroeconomic figures. Technical analysts forecast the evolution of asset prices based on historical patterns to make trading gains. Businesses forecast the demand for their products by including seasonal trends (e.g., utility providers) and economic developments.

This article will deal with the latter two applications of forecasting that is focused on the analysis of historical patterns and seasonality. Using different input factors to come up with a prediction, like for example a multivariate regression analysis does, can be a successful way of making prediction. However, it also inherently includes the problem of determining those input factors as well in the first place.

The practical methods described in this article circumvent this problem by exclusively using historical time series data (e.g., past sales per month, historical electricity demand per hour of the day, etc.). This makes the use of those methods easy and both methods can be used to predict helpful input parameters of DCF models for example.

Artificial neural networks

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a frequently used buzzword in the advertising of products and services. However, the concept of artificial intelligence is going back to the 1940s, when mathematicians McCulloch and Pitts first presented a mathematical model that was based on the neural activity of the human brain.

Before delving into the practical aspects of an exemplary simple artificial neural network, it is important to understand the terminology. These networks are one – although not the only one – of the key aspects of “Machine Learning”. Machine Learning itself is in turn a subtopic of Artificial Intelligence, which itself employs different tools besides Machine Learning.

Figure 1. Neural network.
Neural network
Source: internet.

To give a simple example of an artificial neural network we will focus on a so-called feedforward neural network. Those networks deliver and transform information from the left side to the right side of the schematic picture below without using any loops. This process is called Forward Propagation. Historic time series data is simply put into the first layer of neurons. The actual transformation of the data is done by the individual neurons of the network. Some neurons simply put different weights on the input parameter. Neurons of the hidden layers then use several non-linear functions to manipulate the data given to them by the initial layer. Eventually the manipulated data is consolidated in the output layer.

This sounds all very random and indeed it is. At the beginning, a neural network is totally unaware of its actual best solution and the first computations are done via random weights and functions. But after a first result is compiled, the algorithm compares the result with the actual true value. Of course, this is not possible for values that lye in the future. Therefore, the algorithm divides the historic time series into a section used for training (data that is put into the network) and into a section for testing (data that can be compared to the transformed training data). The deviation between compiled value and true value is then minimized via the process of so-called backpropagation. Weights and functions are changed iteratively until an optimal solution is reached and the network it sufficiently trained. This optimal solution then servers to compute the “real” future values.

This description is a very theoretical presentation of such an artificial neural network and the question arises, how to handle such complex algorithms. Therefore, the last part of this article focuses on the implementation of such a forecasting tool. One very useful tool for statistical forecasting via artificial neural networks is the programming language R and the well-known development environment RStudio. RStudio enables the user to directly download user-created packages, to import historical data from Excel sheets and to export graphical presentations of forecasts.

A very easy first approach is the nnetar function of R. This function can be simply used to analyze existing time series data and it will automatically define an artificial neural network (number of layers, neurons etc.) and train it. Eventually it also allows to use the trained model to forecast future data points.

The chart below is a result of this function used on simulated sales data between 2015 and 2021 to forecast the sales of 2022. In this case the nnetar function used one layer of hidden neurons and correctly recognized a 12-month seasonality in the data.

Figure 2. Simulated sales data.
Simulated sales data
Source: internet.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Artificial neural networks are a powerful tool to forecast time-series data. By using development environments like RStudio, even users without a sophisticated background in data science can make apply those networks to forecast data they might need for other purposes like DCF models, logistical planning, or internal financial modelling.

Useful resources

RStudio Official Website

Rob Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos Forecasting: Principles and Practice

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about financial techniques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Logistic regression

   ▶ Daksh GARG Use of AI in investment banking

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Micha FISHER (University of Mannheim, MSc. Management, 2021-2023).

My job in the Investors Relations department at SAP

My job in the Investors Relations department at SAP

Micha FISHER

In this article, Micha FISHER (University of Mannheim, MSc. Management, 2021-2023) shares his experience as an employee in the Investors Relations department at SAP, Europe’s largest software company.

SAP

SAP is a curious case within the DAX 40 index. Unlike many of the well-known German enterprises, it is not a company built around the automotive sector, machinery, or chemicals. Instead, SAP is one of the very few European software companies, that can match the dominant players from the USA.

SAP
Logo SAP
Source: SAP.

However, SAP is not known for its consumer products, and its business is purely focused on the business-to-business (B2B) sector. As one of the leading providers of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, SAP provides other companies with the opportunity to transform themselves into intelligent enterprises with integrated processes. Applications cover all possible business processes from supply-chain management to finance through supporting functions like human resources.

In the 2020s, SAP’s current main challenge is to transform its business and its large and international client base from mainly locally managed systems (on premise) to remotely managed systems (cloud services). This presents a great opportunity and comes with many benefits not only for SAP’s customers but also for SAP shareholders, as cloud contracts provide the business with stable and more recurring revenues.

My Work Experience

As a multinational enterprise, SAP offers various jobs in areas like development, consulting, or sales. Due to my proclivity for Finance and Communication, I choose to work for SAP’s Investor Relations department. This department works closely with the CFO and CEO of the company to facilitate an ongoing dialogue with the investor community, to prepare the publication of quarterly results and to manage the annual general meeting of shareholders.

While some colleagues deal with matters of retail shareholders or with matters of ESG investors specifically, I was mostly supporting the institutional side of the team. This means listening to the sell-side analysts of the large investments firms that are covering the company (UBS, GS, JPM, etc.), preparing meetings with those analysts or with portfolio managers and in general keeping an eye on the current sentiment of the market.

Knowledge and skills needed

A good Investor Relations Officer should have a diverse and broad background. Of course, financial knowledge and the skills to analyze financial statements is key, as those topics are part of the daily discussions with external analysts as well as with internal stakeholders.

However, a good general understanding of the industry and of the product landscape is necessary as well. And finally, sufficient communication skills are a must: it is not enough to advertise the company to future potential shareholders, it is also critical to listen to the concerns of existing shareholders and to relay this information back into the board room of the company.

What I learned

The market is always right. This is a very confrontative statement and I suppose not everyone would agree with this initially. However, in my experience, an honest and transparent approach to financial communication is the most successful one in the long term. Investor Relations should not sugarcoat its messages to the market. At the end, the value of the company is fundamentally decided by its potential to generate cash flows (and especially cash flows for shareholders with dividends). Changing the messaging can only delay a change of the stock price. One of my colleagues with a lot of experience loves to quote President Abraham Lincoln on this matter (although nobody knows if he really said that): “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”.

Financial concepts

To work in Investor Relations, you should be aware of several financial concepts: Firm valuation and modelling are at the heart of the job. General knowledge about M&A activities and divestitures can also be very helpful. But the most important concept is to understand the different players on the equity market:

Sell side

The sell side represents all the third-party analysts from investment banks or independent research firms that do not actually trade the stock of the company but sell their reports and insights to those who do. These analysts have a very deep understanding of the industry and the business model and there are excellent at modelling firm valuations.

Buy side

The buy side consists of large private funds, insurance companies and sovereign state funds. These are the actual shareholders of the company and often the portfolio managers of these companies are generalists with various industries in their portfolios. They are a diverse group of firms and while some of them are very passive investors, others are actively trying to influence the decision processes within the company.

Proxy advisors

Proxy advisors provide advisory services to institutional investors. They advise the buy side investors on how to vote during the annual general meeting of a corporation. As the market for proxy advisory is heavily concentrated, it is of utmost importance for Investor Relations to keep an ongoing dialogue with these firms. Well-known proxy advisors are “Glass, Lewis & Co” and “Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS)”.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Investor Relations is a developing function in public companies and the discipline must be better studied in the academic field. It is a key function within every publicly traded company to minimize the information asymmetries between investors and management and thus in my opinion a very interesting area to work in.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Anna BARBERO Career in finance

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Classic brain teasers from real-life interviews

Useful resources

SAP

SAP Investor Relations

National Investor Relations Institute (US-focused association)

About the author

The article was written in October 2022 by Micha FISHER (University of Mannheim, MSc. Management, 2021-2023).