Managed futures strategy

January 13, 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) presents the managed futures strategy (also called CTAs or Commodity Trading Advisors). The objective of the managed futures strategy is to look for market trends across different markets.

This article is structured as follow: we introduce the managed futures strategy principle. Then, we present the different types of managed futures strategies available. We also present a performance analysis of this strategy and compare it a benchmark representing all hedge fund strategies (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and a benchmark for the global equity market (MSCI All World Index).

Introduction

According to Credit Suisse (a financial institution publishing hedge fund indexes), a managed futures strategy can be defined as follows: “Managed Futures funds (often referred to as CTAs or Commodity Trading Advisors) focus on investing in listed bond, equity, commodity futures and currency markets, globally. Managers tend to employ systematic trading programs that largely rely upon historical price data and market trends. A significant amount of leverage is employed since the strategy involves the use of futures contracts. CTAs do not have a particular biased towards being net long or net short any particular market.”

Managed futures funds make money based on the points below:

Exploit market trends: trending markets tend to keep the same direction over time (either upwards or downwards)
Combine short-term and long-term indicators: use of short-term and long-term moving averages
Diversify across different markets: at least one market should move in trend
Leverage: the majority of managed futures funds are leveraged in order to get increased exposures to a certain market

Types of managed futures strategies

Managed futures may contain varying percentages of equity and derivative investments. In general, a diversified managed futures account will have exposure to multiple markets, including commodities, energy, agriculture, and currencies. The majority of managed futures accounts will have a trading programme that explains their market strategy. The market-neutral and trend-following strategies are two main methods.

Market-neutral strategy

Market-neutral methods look to profit from mispricing-induced spreads and arbitrage opportunities. Investors that utilise this strategy usually attempt to limit market risk by taking long and short positions in the same industry to profit from both price increases (for long positons) and decreases (for short positions).

Trend-following strategy

Trend-following strategies seek to generate profits by trading long or short based on fundamental and/or technical market indicators. When the price of an asset is falling, trend traders may decide to enter a short position on that asset. On the opposite, when the price of an asset is rising, trend traders may decide to enter a long position. The objective is to collect gains by examining multiple indicators, deciding an asset’s direction, and then executing the appropriate trade.

Methodolgical isuses

The methodology to define a managed futures strategy is described below:

Identify appropriate markets: concentrate on the markets that are of interest for this style of trading strategy
Identify technical indicators: use key technical indicators to assess if the market is trading on a trend
Backtesting: the hedge fund manager will test the indicators retained for the strategy on the market chosen using historical data and assess the profitability of the strategy across a sample data frame. The important point to mention is that the results can be prone to errors. The results obtained can be optimized to historical data, but don’t offer the returns computed historically.
Execute the strategy out of sample: see if the in-sample backtesting result is similar out of sample.

This strategy makes money by investing in trending markets. The strategy can potentially generate returns in both rising and falling markets. However, understanding the market in which this strategy is employed, coupled with a deep understanding of the key drivers behind the trending patterns and the rigorous quantitative approach to trading is of key concern since this is what makes this strategy profitable (or not!).

Performance of the managed futures strategy

Overall, the performance of the managed futures strategy was overall not correlated from equity returns, but volatile (Credit Suisse, 2022). To capture the performance of the managed futures strategy, we use the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index. To establish a comparison between the performance of the global equity market and the managed futures strategy, we examine the rebased performance of the Credit Suisse managed futures index with respect to the MSCI All-World Index.

Over a period from 2002 to 2022, the managed futures strategy index managed to generate an annualized return of 3.98% with an annualized volatility of 10.40%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.077. Over the same period, the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index managed to generate an annualized return of 5.18% with an annualized volatility of 5.53%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.208. The managed futures strategy had a negative correlation with the global equity index, just about -0.02 overall across the data analyzed. The results are in line with the idea of global diversification and decorrelation of returns derived of the managed futures strategy from global equity returns.

Figure 1 gives the performance of the managed futures funds (Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index) compared to the hedge funds (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and the world equity funds (MSCI All-World Index) for the period from July 2002 to April 2021.

Figure 1. Performance of the managed futures strategy.

Source: computation by the author (Data: Bloomberg)

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the Credit Suisse managed futures strategy.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Understanding the profits and risks of such a strategy might assist investors in incorporating this hedge fund strategy into their portfolio allocation.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Business Analysis

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Credit Suisse Managed futures strategy

Credit Suisse Managed futures performance benchmark

About the author

The article was written in January 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Dedicated short bias strategy

January 13, 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) presents the dedicated short bias strategy. The strategy holds a net short position, which implies more shorts (selling) than long (buying) positions. The objective of the dedicated bias strategy is to profit from shorting overvalued equities.

This article is structured as follow: we introduce the dedicated short bias strategy. Then, we present a practical case study to grasp the overall methodology of this strategy. We also present a performance analysis of this strategy and compare it a benchmark representing all hedge fund strategies (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and a benchmark for the global equity market (MSCI All World Index).

Introduction

According to Credit Suisse (a financial institution publishing hedge fund indexes), a dedicated short bias strategy can be defined as follows: “Dedicated Short Bias funds take more short positions than long positions and earn returns by maintaining net short exposure in long and short equities. Detailed individual company research typically forms the core alpha generation driver of dedicated short bias managers, and a focus on companies with weak cash flow generation is common. To affect the short sale, the manager borrows the stock from a counter-party and sells it in the market. Short positions are sometimes implemented by selling forward. Risk management consists of offsetting long positions and stop-loss strategies”.

This strategy makes money by short selling overvalued equities. The strategy can potentially generate returns in falling markets but would underperform in rising equity market. The interesting characteristic of this strategy is that it can potentially offer to investors the added diversification by being non correlated with equity market returns.

Example of the dedicated short bias strategy

Jim Chanos (Kynikos Associates) short selling trade: Enron

In 2000, Enron dominated the raw material and energy industries. Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling were the two leaders of the group that disguised the company’s financial accounts for years. Enron’s directors, for instance, hid interminable debts in subsidiaries in order to create the appearance of a healthy parent company whose obligations were extremely limited because they were buried in the subsidiary accounts. Enron filed for bankruptcy on December 2, 2001, sparking a big scandal, pulling down the pension funds intended for the retirement of its employees, who were all laid off simultaneously. Arthur Andersen, Enron’s auditor, failed to detect the scandal, and the scandal ultimately led to the dissolution of one of the five largest accounting and audit firms in the world (restructuring the sector from the Big 5 to the Big 4). Figure 1 represents the share price of Enron across time.

Figure 1. Performance Enron across time.
img_SimTrade_Enron_performance
Source: Computation by the author

Fortune magazine awarded Enron Corporation “America’s Most Innovative Company” annually from 1996 to 2000. Enron Corporation was a supposedly extremely profitable energy and commodities company. At the beginning of 2001, Enron had around 20,000 employees and a market valuation of $60 billion, approximately 70 times its earnings.

Short seller James Chanos gained notoriety for identifying Enron’s problems early on. This trade was dubbed “the market call of the decade, if not the past fifty years” (Pederssen, 2015).

Risk of the dedicated short bias strategy

The most significant risk that can make this strategy loose money is a short squeeze. A short seller can borrow shares through a margin account if he/she believes a stock is overvalued and its price is expected to decline. The short seller will then sell the stock and deposit the money into his/her margin account as collateral. The seller will eventually have to repurchase the shares. If the price of the stock has decreased, the short seller gains money owing to the difference between the price of the stock sold on margin and the price of the stock paid later at the reduced price. Nonetheless, if the price rises, the buyback price may rise the initial sale price, and the short seller will be forced to sell the security quickly to avoid incurring even higher losses.

We illustrate below the risk of a dedicated short bias strategy with Gamestop.

Gamestop short squeeze

GameStop is best known as a video game retailer, with over 3,000 stores still in operation in the United States. However, as technology in the video game business advances, physical shops faced substantial problems. Microsoft and Sony have both adopted digital game downloads directly from their own web shops for their Xbox and Playstation systems. While GameStop continues to offer video games, the company has made steps to diversify into new markets. Toys and collectibles, gadgets, apparel, and even new and refurbished mobile phones are included.

However, given the increased short pressure by different hedge funds believing that the era of physical copies was dead, they started positioning in Gamestop stock and traded short in order to profit from the decrease in value. In this scenario, roughly 140% of GameStop’s shares were sold short in January 2021. In this case, investors have two choices: keep the short position or cover it (to buy back the borrowed securities in order to close out the open short position at a profit or loss). When the stock price rises, covering a short position means purchasing the shares at a loss since the stock price is now higher than what was sold. And when 140% of a stock’s float is sold short, a large number of positions are (have to be) closed. As a result, short sellers were constantly buying shares to cover their bets. When there is that much purchasing pressure, the stock mechanically continued to rise. From the levels reached in early 2020 to the levels reached in mid-2021, the stock price climbed by a factor of a nearly a hundred times (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Performance of Gamestop stock price.
Gamestop performance
Source: (Data: Tradingview)

In the Gamestop story, the short sellers lost huge amount of money. Especially, the hedge fund Melvin Capital lost billions of dollars after being on the wrong side of the GameStop short squeeze.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Understanding the profits and risks of such a strategy might assist investors in incorporating this hedge fund strategy into their portfolio allocation.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Business Analysis

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Wikipedia Gamestop short squeeze

TradingView, 2023 Gamestop stock price historical chart

About the author

The article was written in January 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Equity market neutral strategy

January 11, 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) presents the equity market neutral strategy. The objective of the equity market neutral strategy is to benefit from both long and short positions while minimizing the exposure to the equity market fluctuations.

This article is structured as follow: we introduce the equity market neutral strategy. Then, we present a practical case study to grasp the overall methodology of this strategy. We conclude with a performance analysis of this strategy in comparison with a global benchmark (MSCI All World Index and the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index).

Introduction

According to Credit Suisse (a financial institution publishing hedge fund indexes), an equity market neutral strategy can be defined as follows: “Equity Market Neutral funds take both long and short positions in stocks while minimizing exposure to the systematic risk of the market (i.e., a beta of zero is desired). Funds seek to exploit investment opportunities unique to a specific group of stocks, while maintaining a neutral exposure to broad groups of stocks defined for example by sector, industry, market capitalization, country, or region. There are a number of sub- sectors including statistical arbitrage, quantitative long/short, fundamental long/short and index arbitrage”. This strategy makes money by holding assets that are decorrelated from a specific benchmark. The strategy can potentially generate returns in falling markets.

Mathematical foundation for the beta

This strategy relies heavily on the beta, derived from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Under this framework, we can relate the expected return of a given asset and its risk:

Where :

E(r) represents the expected return of the asset
r_f the risk-free rate
β a measure of the risk of the asset
E(r_m) the expected return of the market
E(r_m) – r_f represents the market risk premium.

In this model, the beta (β) parameter is a key parameter and is defined as:

Where:

Cov(r, r_m) represents the covariance of the asset return with the market return
σ²(r_m) is the variance of market return.

The beta is a measure of how sensitive an asset is to market swings. This risk indicator aids investors in predicting the fluctuations of their asset in relation to the wider market. It compares the volatility of an asset to the systematic risk that exists in the market. The beta is a statistical term that denotes the slope of a line formed by a regression of data points comparing stock returns to market returns. It aids investors in understanding how the asset moves in relation to the market. According to Fama and French (2004), there are two ways to interpret the beta employed in the CAPM:

According to the CAPM formula, beta may be thought in mathematical terms as the slope of the regression of the asset return on the market return observed on different periods. Thus, beta quantifies the asset sensitivity to changes in the market return;
According to the beta formula, it may be understood as the risk that each dollar invested in an asset adds to the market portfolio. This is an economic explanation based on the observation that the market portfolio’s risk (measured by 〖σ(r_m)〗^2) is a weighted average of the covariance risks associated with the assets in the market portfolio, making beta a measure of the covariance risk associated with an asset in comparison to the variance of the market return.

Additionally, the CAPM makes a distinction between two forms of risk: systematic and specific risk. Systematic risk refers to the risk posed by all non-diversifiable elements such as monetary policy, political events, and natural disasters. By contrast, specific risk refers to the risk inherent in a particular asset and so is diversifiable. As a result, the CAPM solely captures systematic risk via the beta measure, with the market’s beta equal to one, lower-risk assets having a beta less than one, and higher-risk assets having a beta larger than one.

Application of an equity market neutral strategy

For the purposes of this example, let us assume that a portfolio manager wants to invest $100 million across a diverse equity portfolio while maintaining market-neutral exposure to market index changes. To create an equity market-neutral portfolio, we use five stocks from the US equity market: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, and Pfizer. Using monthly data from Bloomberg for the period from 1999 to 2022, we compute the returns of these stocks and their beta with the US equity index (S&P500). Using the solver function on Excel, we find the weights of the portfolio with the maximum expected return with a beta equal to zero.

Table 1 displays the target weights needed to build a portfolio with a neutral view on the equity market. As shown by the target allocation in Table 1, we can immediately see a substantial position of 186.7 million dollars on Pfizer while keeping a short position on the remaining equity positions of the portfolio totaling 86.7 million dollars in short positions. Given that the stocks on the short list have high beta values (more than one), this allocation makes sense. Pfizer is the only defensive stock and has a beta of 0.66 in relation to the S&P 500 index.

If the investment manager allocated capital in the following way, he would create an equity market neutral portfolio with a beta of zero:

Apple: -$4.6 million (-4.6% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of -0.066)
Amazon: -$39.9 million (-39.9% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of -0.592)
Microsoft: -$16.2 million (-16.2% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of -0.192)
Goldman Sachs: -$26 million (-26% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of -0.398)
Pfizer: $186.7 million (186.7% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of 1.247)

Table 1. Target weights to achieve an equity market neutral portfolio.
Source: computation by the author (Data: Bloomberg)

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the equity market neutral portfolio.

An extension of the equity market neutral strategy to other asset classes

A portfolio with a beta of zero, or zero systematic risk, is referred to as a zero-beta portfolio. A portfolio with a beta of zero would have an expected return equal to the risk-free rate. Given that its expected return is equal to the risk-free rate or is relatively low compared to portfolios with a higher beta. Such portfolio would have no correlation with market movements.

Since a zero-beta portfolio has no market exposure and would consequently underperform a diversified market portfolio, it is highly unlikely that investors will be interested in it during bull markets. During a bear market, it may garner some interest, but investors are likely to ask if investing in risk-free, short-term Treasuries is a better and less expensive alternative to a zero-beta portfolio.

For this example, we imagine the case of a portfolio manager wishing to invest 100M$ across a diversified portfolio, while holding a zero-beta portfolio with respect to a broad equity index benchmark. To recreate a diversified portfolio, we compiled a shortlist of trackers that would represent our investment universe. To maintain a balanced approach, we selected trackers that would represent the main asset classes: global stocks (VTI – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF), bonds (IEF – iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF and TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF), and commodities (DBC – Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund and GLD – SPDR Gold Shares).

To construct the zero-beta portfolio, we pulled a ten-year time series from Refinitiv Eikon and calculated the beta of each asset relative to the broad stock index benchmark (VTI tracker). The target weights to create a zero-beta portfolio are shown in Table 2. As captured by the target allocation in Table 2, we can clearly see an important weight for bonds of different maturities (56.7%), along with a 33.7% towards commodities and a small allocation towards global equity equivalent to 9.6% (because of the high beta value).

If the investment manager allocated capital in the following way, he would create a zero-beta portfolio with a beta of zero:

VTI: $9.69 million (9.69% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of 0.097)
IEF: $18.99 million (18.99% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of -0.029)
GLD: $18.12 million (18.12% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of 0.005)
DBC: $15.5 million (15.50% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of 0.070)
TLT: $37.7 million (37.7% of the portfolio; a weighted-beta of -0.143)

Table 2. Target weights to achieve a zero-beta portfolio.
Source: computation by the author. (Data: Reuters Eikon)

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the zero beta portfolio.

Performance of the equity market neutral strategy

To capture the performance of the equity market neutral strategy, we use the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index. To establish a comparison between the performance of the global equity market and the equity market neutral strategy, we examine the rebased performance of the Credit Suisse managed futures index with respect to the MSCI All-World Index.

The equity market neutral strategy generated an annualized return of -0.18% with an annualized volatility of 7.5%, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of -0.053. During the same time period, the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index had an annualized return of 4.34 percent with an annualized volatility of 5.64 percent, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 0.174. With a neutral market beta exposure of 0.04, the results are consistent with the theory that this approach does not carry the equity risk premium. This aspect justifies the underperformance.

Figure 1 gives the performance of the equity market neutral funds (Credit Suisse Equity Market Neutral Index) compared to the hedge funds (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and the world equity funds (MSCI All-World Index) for the period from July 2002 to April 2021.

Figure 1. Performance of the equity market neutral strategy.

Source: computation by the author (Data: Bloomberg)

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the Credit Suisse equity market neutral strategy.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Understanding the performance and risk of the equity market neutral strategy might assist investors in incorporating this hedge fund strategy into their portfolio allocation.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Business Analysis

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Credit Suisse Equity market neutral strategy

Credit Suisse Equity market neutral performance benchmark

About the author

The article was written in January 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Fixed-income arbitrage strategy

January 10, 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI

Fixed-income arbitrage strategy

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) presents the fixed-income arbitrage strategy which is a well-known strategy used by hedge funds. The objective of the fixed-income arbitrage strategy is to benefit from trends or disequilibrium in the prices of fixed-income securities using systematic and discretionary trading strategies.

This article is structured as follow: we introduce the fixed-income arbitrage strategy principle. Then, we present a practical case study to grasp the overall methodology of this strategy. We also present a performance analysis of this strategy and compare it a benchmark representing all hedge fund strategies (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and a benchmark for the global equity market (MSCI All World Index).

Introduction

According to Credit Suisse (a financial institution publishing hedge fund indexes), a fixed-income arbitrage strategy can be defined as follows: “Fixed-income arbitrage funds attempt to generate profits by exploiting inefficiencies and price anomalies between related fixed-income securities. Funds limit volatility by hedging out exposure to the market and interest rate risk. Strategies include leveraging long and short positions in similar fixed-income securities that are related either mathematically or economically. The sector includes credit yield curve relative value trading involving interest rate swaps, government securities and futures, volatility trading involving options, and mortgage-backed securities arbitrage (the mortgage-backed market is primarily US-based and over-the-counter)”.

Types of arbitrage

Fixed-income arbitrage makes money based on two main underlying concepts:

Pure arbitrage

Identical instruments should have identical price (this is the law of one price). This could be the case, for instance, of two futures contracts traded on two different exchanges. This mispricing could be used by going long the undervalued contract and short the overvalued contract. This strategy uses to work in the days before the rise of electronic trading. Now, pure arbitrage is much less obvious as information is accessible instantly and algorithmic trading wipe out this kind of market anomalies.

Relative value arbitrage

Similar instruments should have a similar price. The fundamental rationale of this type of arbitrage is the notion of reversion to the long-term mean (or normal relative valuations).

Factors that influence fixed-income arbitrage strategies

We list below the sources of market inefficiencies that fixed-income arbitrage funds can exploit.

Market segmentation

Segmentation is of concern for fixed-income arbitrageurs. In financial institutions, the fixed-income desk is split into different traders looking at specific parts of the yield curve. In this instance, some will focus on very short, dated bonds, others while concentrate in the middle part of the yield curve (2-5y) while other while be looking at the long-end of the yield curve (10-30y).

Regulation

Regulation has an implication in the kind of fixed-income securities a fund can hold in their books. Some legislations regulate actively to have specific exposure to high yield securities (junk bonds) since their probability of default is much more important. The diminished popularity linked to the tight regulation can make the valuation of those bonds more attractive than owning investment grade bonds.

Liquidity

Liquidity is also an important concern for this type of strategy. The more liquid the market, the easier it is to trade and execute the strategy (vice versa).

Volatility

Large market movements in the market can have implications to the profitability of this kind of strategy.

Instrument complexity

Instrument complexity can also be a reason to have fixed-income securities. The events of 2008 are a clear example of how banks and regulators didn’t manage to price correctly the complex instruments sold in the market which were highly risky.

Application of a fixed-income arbitrage

Fixed-income arbitrage strategy makes money by focusing on the liquidity and volatility factors generating risk premia. The strategy can potentially generate returns in both rising and falling markets. However, understanding the yield curve structure of interest rates and detecting the relative valuation differential between fixed-income securities is the key concern since this is what makes this strategy profitable (or not!).

We present below a case study related tot eh behavior of the yield curves in the European fixed-income markets inn the mid 1990’s

The European yield curve differential during in the mid 1990’s

The case showed in this example is the relative-value trade between Germany and Italian yields during the period before the adoption of the Euro as a common currency (at the end of the 1990s). The yield curve should reflect the future path of interest rates. The Maastricht treaty (signed on 7th February 1992) obliged most EU member states to adopt the Euro if certain monetary and budgetary conditions were met. This would imply that the future path of interest rates for Germany and Italy should converge towards the same values. However, the differential in terms of interest rates at that point was nearly 350 bps from 5-year maturity onwards (3.5% spread) as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. German and Italian yield curve in January 1995.

Source: Motson (2022) (Data: Bloomberg).

A fixed-income arbitrageur could have profited by entering in an interest rate swap where the investor receives 5y-5y forward Italian rates and pays 5y-5y German rates. If the Euro is introduced, then the spread between the two yield curves for the 5-10y part should converge to zero. As captured in Figure 2, the rates converged towards the same value in 1998, where the spread between the two rates converged to zero.

Figure 2. Payoff of the fixed-income arbitrage strategy.

Source: Motson (2022) (Data: Bloomberg).

Performance of the fixed-income arbitrage strategy

Overall, the performance of the fixed-income arbitrage between 1994-2020 were smaller on scale, with occasional large drawdowns (Asian crisis 1998, Great Financial Crisis of 2008, Covid-19 pandemic 2020). This strategy is skewed towards small positive returns but with important tail-risk (heavy losses) according to Credit Suisse (2022). To capture the performance of the fixed-income arbitrage strategy, we use the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index. To establish a comparison between the performance of the global equity market and the fixed-income arbitrage strategy, we examine the rebased performance of the Credit Suisse index with respect to the MSCI All-World Index.

Over a period from 2002 to 2022, the fixed-income arbitrage strategy index managed to generate an annualized return of 3.81% with an annualized volatility of 5.84%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.129. Over the same period, the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index Index managed to generate an annualized return of 5.04% with an annualized volatility of 5.64%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.197. The results are in line with the idea of global diversification and decorrelation of returns derived from the global macro strategy from global equity returns. Overall, the Credit Suisse fixed-income arbitrage strategy index performed better than the MSCI All World Index, leading to a higher Sharpe ratio (0.129 vs 0.08).

Figure 3 gives the performance of the fixed-income arbitrage funds (Credit Suisse Fixed-income Arbitrage Index) compared to the hedge funds (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and the world equity funds (MSCI All-World Index) for the period from July 2002 to April 2021.

Figure 3. Performance of the fixed-income arbitrage strategy.
Global macro performance
Source: computation by the author (Data: Bloomberg).

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the fixed-income arbitrage strategy.

Why should I be interested in this post?

The fixed-income arbitrage strategy aims to profit from market dislocations in the fixed-income market. This can be implemented, for instance, by investing in inexpensive fixed-income securities that the fund manager predicts that it will increase in value, while simultaneously shorting overvalued fixed-income securities to mitigate losses. Understanding the profits and risks associated with such a strategy may aid investors in adopting this hedge fund strategy into their portfolio allocation.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Motson, N. 2022. Hedge fund elective. Bayes (formerly Cass) Business School.

Business Analysis

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Credit Suisse Fixed-income arbitrage strategy

Credit Suisse Fixed-income arbitrage performance benchmark

About the author

The article was written in January 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Global macro strategy

January 9, 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) presents the global macro equity strategy, one of the most widely known strategies in the hedge fund industry. The goal of the global macro strategy is to look for trends or disequilibrium in equity, bonds, currency or alternative assets based on broad economic data using a top-down approach.

This article is structured as follow: we introduce the global macro strategy principle. Then, we present a famous case study to grasp the overall methodology of this strategy. We conclude with a performance analysis of this strategy in comparison with a global benchmark (MSCI All World Index and the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index).

Introduction

According to Credit Suisse, a global macro strategy can be defined as follows: “Global Macro funds focus on identifying extreme price valuations and leverage is often applied on the anticipated price movements in equity, currency, interest rate and commodity markets. Managers typically employ a top-down global approach to concentrate on forecasting how political trends and global macroeconomic events affect the valuation of financial instruments. Profits are made by correctly anticipating price movements in global markets and having the flexibility to use a broad investment mandate, with the ability to hold positions in practically any market with any instrument. These approaches may be systematic trend following models, or discretionary.”

This strategy can generate returns in both rising and falling markets. However, asset screening is of key concern, and the ability of the fund manager to capture the global macro picture that is driving all asset classes is what makes this strategy profitable (or not!).

The greatest trade in history

The greatest trade in history (before Michael Burry becomes famous for anticipating the Global financial crisis of 2008 linked to the US housing market) took place during the 1990’s when the UK was intending to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) founded in 1979. This foreign exchange (FX) system involved eight countries with the intention to move towards a single currency (the Euro). The currencies of the countries involved would be adjustably pegged with a determined band in which they can fluctuate with respect to the Deutsche Mark (DEM), the currency of Germany considered as the reference of the ERM.

Later in 1992, the pace at which the countries adhering to the ERM mechanism were evolving at different rate of growth. The German government was in an intensive spending following the reunification of Berlin, with important stimulus from the German Central Bank to print more money. However, the German government was very keen on controlling inflation to satisfactory level, which was achieved by increasing interest rates in order to curb the inflationary pressure in the German economy.

In the United Kingdom (UK), another macroeconomic picture was taking place: there was a high unemployment coupled with already relatively high interest rates compared to other European economies. The Bank of England was put in a very tight spot because they were facing two main market scenarios:

To increase interest rates, which would worsen the economy and drive the UK into a recession
To devalue the British Pound (GBP) by defending actively in the FX market, which would cause the UK to leave the ERM mechanism.

The Bank of England decided to go with the second option by defending the British Pound in the FX market by actively buying pounds. However, this strategy would not be sustainable over time. Soros (and other investors) had seen this disequilibrium and shorted British Pound and bought Deutsche Mark. The situation got completely off control for the Bank of England that in September 1992, they decided to increase interest rates, which were already at 10% to more than 15% to calm the selling pressure. Eventually, the following day, the Bank of England announced the exit of the UK from the ERM mechanism and put a hold on the increase of interest rate to the 12% until the economic conditions get better. Figure 1 gives the evolution of the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the Deutsche Mark (DEM) over the period 1991-1992.

Figure 1. Evolution of the GBP-DEM (British Pound / Deutsche Mark FX rate).
Global macro performance
Source: Bloomberg.

It was reported that Soros amassed a position of $10 billion and gained a whopping $1 billion for this trade. This event put Soros in the scene as the “man who broke the Bank of England”. The good note about this market event is that the UK economy emerged much healthier than the European countries, with UK exports becoming much more competitive as a result of the pound devaluation, which led the Bank of England to cut rates cut down to the 5-6% level the years following the event, which ultimately helped the UK economy to get better.

Performance of the global macro strategy

Overall, the performance of the global macro funds between 1994-2020 was steady, with occasional large drawdowns (Asian crisis 1998, Dot-com bubble 2000’s, Great Financial Crisis of 2008, Covid-19 pandemic 2020). On a side note, the returns seem smaller and less volatile since 2000 onwards (Credit Suisse, 2022).

To capture the performance of the global macro strategy, we use the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index. To establish a comparison between the performance of the global equity market and the global macro hedge fund strategy, we examine the rebased performance of the Credit Suisse index with respect to the MSCI All-World Index. Over a period from 2002 to 2022, the global macro strategy index managed to generate an annualized return of 7.85% with an annualized volatility of 5.77%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.33. Over the same period, the MSCI All World Index managed to generate an annualized return of 6.00% with an annualized volatility of 15.71%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.08. The low correlation of the long-short equity strategy with the MSCI All World Index is equal to -0.02, which is close to zero. The results are in line with the idea of global diversification and decorrelation of returns derived from the global macro strategy from global equity returns. Overall, the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index performed better worse than the MSCI All World Index, leading to a higher Sharpe ratio (0.33 vs 0.08).

Figure 2 gives the performance of the global macro funds (Credit Suisse Global Macro Index) compared to the hedge funds (Credit Suisse Hedge Fund index) and the world equity funds (MSCI All-World Index) for the period from July 2002 to April 2021.

Figure 2. Performance of the global macro strategy.

Source: computation by the author (data: Bloomberg).

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the global macro hedge fund strategy.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Global macro funds seek to profit from market dislocations across different asset classes. reduce negative risk while increasing market upside. They might, for example, invest in inexpensive assets that the fund managers believe will rise in price while simultaneously shorting overvalued assets to cut losses. Other strategies used by global macro funds to lessen market volatility can include leverage and derivatives. Understanding the profits and risks of such a strategy might assist investors in incorporating this hedge fund strategy into their portfolio allocation.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Business Analysis

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Credit Suisse Global macro strategy

Credit Suisse Global macro performance benchmark

About the author

The article was written in January 2023 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Quantitative equity investing

December 19, 2022 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) elaborates on the concept of quantitative equity investing, a type of investment approach in the equity trading space.

This article follows the following structure: we introduce the quantitative equity investing. We present a review of the major types of quantitative equity strategies and we finish with a conclusion.

Introduction

Quantitative equity investing refers to funds that uses model-driven decision making when trading in the equity space. Quantitative analysts program their trading rules into computer systems and use algorithmic trading, which is overseen by humans.

Quantitative investing has several advantages and disadvantages over discretionary trading. The disadvantages are that the trading rule cannot be as personalized to each unique case and cannot be dependent on “soft” information such human judgment. These disadvantages may be lessened as processing power and complexity improve. For example, quantitative models may use textual analysis to examine transcripts of a firm’s conference calls with equity analysts, determining whether certain phrases are commonly used or performing more advanced analysis.

The advantages of quantitative investing include the fact that it may be applied to a diverse group of stocks, resulting in great diversification. When a quantitative analyst builds an advanced investment model, it can be applied to thousands of stocks all around the world at the same time. Second, the quantitative modeling rigor may be able to overcome many of the behavioral biases that commonly impact human judgment, including those that produce trading opportunities in the first place. Third, using past data, the quant’s trading principles can be backtested (Pedersen, 2015).

Types of quantitative equity strategies

There are three types of quantitative equity strategies: fundamental quantitative investing, statistical arbitrage, and high-frequency trading (HFT). These three types of quantitative investing differ in various ways, including their conceptual base, turnover, capacity, how trades are determined, and their ability to be backtested.

Fundamental quantitative investing

Fundamental quantitative investing, like discretionary trading, tries to use fundamental analysis in a systematic manner. Fundamental quantitative investing is thus founded on economic and financial theory, as well as statistical data analysis. Given that prices and fundamentals only fluctuate gradually, fundamental quantitative investing typically has a turnover of days to months and a high capacity (meaning that a large amount of money can be invested in the strategy), owing to extensive diversification.

Statistical arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage aims to capitalize on price differences between closely linked stocks. As a result, it is founded on a grasp of arbitrage relations and statistics, and its turnover is often faster than that of fundamental quants. Statistical arbitrage has a lower capacity due to faster trading (and possibly fewer stocks having arbitrage spreads).

High Frequency Trading (HFT)

HFT is based on statistics, information processing, and engineering, as the success of an HFT is determined in part by the speed with which they can trade. HFTs focus on having superfast computers and computer programs, as well as co-locating their computers at exchanges, actually trying to get their computer as close to the exchange server as possible, using fast cables, and so on. HFTs have the fastest trading turnover and, as a result, the lowest capacity.

The three types of quants also differ in how they make trades: Fundamental quants typically make their deals ex ante, statistical arbitrage traders make their trades gradually, and high-frequency traders let the market make their transactions. A fundamental quantitative model, for example, identifies high-expected-return stocks and then buys them, almost always having their orders filled; a statistical arbitrage model seeks to buy a mispriced stock but may terminate the trading scheme before completion if prices have moved adversely; and, finally, an HFT model may submit limit orders to both buy and sell to several exchanges, allowing the market to determine which ones are hit. Because of this trading structure, fundamental quant investing can be simulated with some reliability via a backtest; statistical arbitrage backtests rely heavily on assumptions on execution times, transaction costs, and fill rates; and HFT strategies are frequently difficult to simulate reliably, so HFTs must rely on experiments.

Table 1. Quantitative equity investing main categories and characteristics.

Source: Source: Pedersen, 2015.

Conclusion

Quants run their models on hundreds, if not thousands, of stocks. Because diversification eliminates most idiosyncratic risk, firm-specific shocks tend to wash out at the portfolio level, and any single position is too tiny to make a major impact in performance.

An equity market neutral portfolio eliminates total stock market risk by being equally long and short. Some quants attempt to establish market neutrality by ensuring that the long side’s dollar exposure equals the dollar worth of all short bets. This technique, however, is only effective if the longs and shorts are both equally risky. As a result, quants attempt to balance market beta on both the long and short sides. Some quants attempt to be both dollar and beta neutral.

Why should I be interested in this post?

It may provide an opportunity for investors to diversify their global portfolios. Including hedge funds in a portfolio can help investors obtain absolute returns that are uncorrelated with typical bond/equity returns.

For practitioners, learning how to incorporate hedge funds into a standard portfolio and understanding the risks associated with hedge fund investing can be beneficial.

Understanding if hedge funds are truly providing “excess returns” and deconstructing the sources of return can be beneficial to academics. Another challenge is determining whether there is any “performance persistence” in hedge fund returns.

Getting a job at a hedge fund might be a profitable career path for students. Understanding the market, the players, the strategies, and the industry’s current trends can help you gain a job as a hedge fund analyst or simply enhance your knowledge of another asset class.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Chapter 9 : 133 – 164. Princeton University Press.

About the author

The article was written in December 2022 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Long-short equity strategy

December 17, 2022 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) presents the long-short equity strategy, one of pioneer strategies in the hedge fund industry. The goal of the long-short equity investment strategy is to buy undervalued stocks and sell short overvalued ones.

This article is structured as follow: we introduce the long-short strategy principle. Then, we present a practical case study to grasp the overall methodology of this strategy. We conclude with a performance analysis of this strategy in comparison with a global benchmark (MSCI All World Index).

Introduction

According to Credit Suisse, a long-short strategy can be defined as follows: “Long-short equity funds invest on both long and short sides of equity markets, generally focusing on diversifying or hedging across particular sectors, regions, or market capitalizations. Managers have the flexibility to shift from value to growth; small to medium to large capitalization stocks; and net long to net short. Managers can also trade equity futures and options as well as equity related securities and debt or build portfolios that are more concentrated than traditional long-only equity funds.”

This strategy has the particularity of potentially generate returns in both rising and falling markets. However, stock selection is key concern, and the stock picking ability of the fund manager is what makes this strategy profitable (or not!). The trade-off of this approach is to reduce market risk but exchange it for specific risk. Another key characteristic of this type of strategy is that overall, funds relying on long-short are net long in their trading exposure (long bias).

Equity strategies

In the equity universe, we can separate long-short equity strategies into discretionary long-short equity, dedicated short bias, and quantitative.

Discretionary long-short

Discretionary long-short equity managers typically decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on a basic review of the value of each firm, which includes evaluating its growth prospects and comparing its profitability to its valuation. By visiting managers and firms, these fund managers also evaluate the management of the company. Additionally, they investigate the accounting figures to judge their accuracy and predict future cash flows. Equity long-short managers typically predict on particular companies, but they can also express opinions on entire industries.

Value investors, a subset of equity managers, concentrate on acquiring undervalued companies and holding these stocks for the long run. A good illustration of a value investor is Warren Buffett. Since companies only become inexpensive when other investors stop investing in them, putting this trading approach into practice frequently entails being a contrarian (buy assets after a price decrease). Because of this, cheap stocks are frequently out of favour or purchased while others are in a panic. Traders claim that deviating from the standard is more difficult than it seems.

Dedicated short bias

Like equity long-short managers, dedicated short bias is a trading technique that focuses on identifying companies to sell short. Making a prediction that the share price will decline is known as short selling. Similar to how purchasing stock entails profiting if the price increases, holding a short position entail profiting if the price decreases. Dedicated short-bias managers search for companies that are declining. Since dedicated short-bias managers are working against the prevailing uptrend in markets since stocks rise more frequently than they fall (this is known as the equity risk premium), they make up a very small proportion of hedge funds.

Most hedge funds in general, as well as almost all equity long-short hedge funds and dedicated short-bias hedge funds, engage in discretionary trading, which refers to the trader’s ability to decide whether to buy or sell based on his or her judgement and an evaluation of the market based on past performance, various types of information, intuition, and other factors.

Quantitative

The quantitative investment might be seen as an alternative to this traditional style of trading. Quants create systems that methodically carry out the stated definitions of their trading rules. They use complex processing of ideas that are difficult to analyse using non-quantitative methods to gain a slight advantage on each of the numerous tiny, diversified trades. To accomplish this, they combine a wealth of data with tools and insights from a variety of fields, including economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, computer science, and engineering, to identify relationships that market participants may not have immediately fully incorporated in the price. Quantitative traders use computer systems that use these relationships to generate trading signals, optimise portfolios considering trading expenses, and execute trades using automated systems that send hundreds of orders every few seconds. In other words, data is fed into computers that execute various programmes under the supervision of humans to conduct trading (Pedersen, 2015).

Example of a long-short equity strategy

The purpose of employing a long-short strategy is to profit in both bullish and bearish markets. To measure the profitability of this strategy, we implemented a long-short strategy from the beginning of January 2022 to June 2022. In this time range, we are long Exxon Mobile stock and short Tesla. The data are extracted from the Bloomberg terminal. The strategy of going long Exxon Mobile and short Tesla is purely educational. This strategy’s basic idea is to profit from rising oil prices (leading to a price increase for Exxon Mobile) and rising interest rates (leading to a price decrease for Tesla). Over the same period, the S&P 500 index has dropped 23%, while the Nasdaq Composite has lost more than 30%. The Nasdaq Composite is dominated by rapidly developing technology companies that are especially vulnerable to rising interest rates.

Overall, the market’s net exposure is zero because we are 100% long Exxon Mobile and 100% short Tesla stock. This strategy succeeded to earn significant returns in both the long and short legs of the trade over a six-month timeframe. It yielded a 99.5 percent return, with a 36.8 percent gain in the value of the Exxon Mobile shares and a 62.8 percent return on the short Tesla position. Figure 1 shows the overall performance of each equity across time.

Figure 1. Long-short equity strategy performance over time
Time-series regression
Source: computation by the author (Data: Bloomberg)

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the example above.

Performance of the long-short equity strategy

To capture the performance of the long-short equity strategy, we use the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index. To establish a comparison between the performance of the global equity market and the long-short hedge fund strategy, we examine the rebased performance of the Credit Suisse index with respect to the MSCI All-World Index. Over a period from 2002 to 2022, the long-short equity strategy index managed to generate an annualised return of 5.96% with an annualised volatility of 7.33%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.18. Over the same period, the MSCI All World Index managed to generate an annualised return of 6.00% with an annualised volatility of 15.71%, leading to a Sharpe ratio of 0.11. The low correlation of the long-short equity strategy with the MSCI All World Index is equal to 0.09, which is closed to zero. Overall, the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index performed somewhat slightly worse than the MSCI All World Index, but presented a much lower volatility leading to a higher Sharpe ratio (0.18 vs 0.11).

Figure 2. Performance of the long-short equity strategy compared to the MSCI All-World Index across time.
Time-series regression
Source: computation by the author (Data: Bloomberg)

You can find below the Excel spreadsheet that complements the explanations about the Credit Suisse hedge fund strategy index.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Long-short funds seek to reduce negative risk while increasing market upside. They might, for example, invest in inexpensive stocks that the fund managers believe will rise in price while simultaneously shorting overvalued stocks to cut losses. Other strategies used by long-short funds to lessen market volatility include leverage and derivatives. Understanding the profits and risks of such a strategy might assist investors in incorporating this hedge fund strategy into their portfolio allocation.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Business Analysis

BlackRock Long-short strategy

BlackRock Investment Outlook

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Credit Suisse Long-short strategy

Credit Suisse Long-short performance benchmark

About the author

The article was written in December 2022 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Activist Funds

October 6, 2022 by Akshit GUPTA

Activist Funds

This article written by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) introduces activist funds which is a type of fund based on shareholder activism to influence a company’s board and top management decisions.

Introduction

Activist funds use an investment strategy where they buy shares in a publicly listed company with the aim to influence a company’s board and top management decisions. A large shareholding provides the activist fund with high power to influence the decision making of these firms at the management level. The aim of an active fund is to push for decisions or changes that would increase the share price and thus, the value of its portfolio.

Activist funds target companies which are poorly managed or have untapped value which if explored, can lead to significant increase in the stock price. They typically buy the equity shares of these companies which provides them with ownership and the rights to vote during the shareholders’ General Meetings to influence the board and top management decisions. Activist funds propose and help implement changes that favourably impact the stock prices and helps them to generate absolute market returns that are generally higher than the market benchmarks. These changes include changes in business strategy, operational decisions, capital structure, corporate governance and the day-to-day practices of the management.

Activist investors are normally seen operating either a private equity firm or a hedge fund and specialising in specific industries or businesses. High-net worth individuals and family offices are majorly involved in activist investing as they have access to huge investments and expertise.

Benefits of activist funds

Like other types of hedge funds and private equity firms, activist funds aim at providing their clients (investors) with investments managed in an efficient manner to optimize expected returns and risk. They try to generate alpha on the clients’ investment by actively participating in company’s board and top management decisions. So, activist funds are often acknowledged as the alternative funds in the asset management industry.

Concerns associated with activist funds

Although the investments in activist funds are handled by professionals and can generate absolute performance, they also come with some concerns for the investors. Some of the commonly associated concerns with activist fund investments are:

Narrow-sighted approach – Activist funds invest in companies with the aim to maximize the shareholder’s wealth. The approach has serious concerns as it doesn’t fully take into account the effects of the decision on the company’s workers and society.
Investment horizon – The investment horizon of activist funds is not very well defined as the changes propose d by the funds can either take shape immediately or may run over a couple of years before the effects are seen.

Example of activist fund

GameStop – Shareholder activism

The infamous GameStop stock rally that happened in 2021 drew people’s attention from around the world and it became the talk of the town. During the same time, the company also went through a change in its management. The event sheds light on the importance and impact of shareholder activism in today’s world.

Ryan Cohen is a famous activist investor who declared 10% stock ownership in GameStop through his investment firm, RC Ventures, in September 2020. This named him amongst the company’s biggest individual investor. He saw a huge opportunity for video games in the e-commerce market and wanted GameStop to evolve from a gaming company to a technology company and also change from traditional brick-and-mortar stores to online channels. To implement the changes, he made efforts to privately engage with the firm to review their strategic vision and change the company’s business model via . But the efforts yielded little success, following which he sent an open letter to the company’s Board of Directors (A copy of the letter can be seen below)

Ryan Cohen Letter to the Board of GameStop in November 2020

The letter was taken seriously by the company’s management and Ryan Cohen was appointed on the Board of Directors of the company in January 2021. Later, he was promoted as the Chairman of the Board to reshape the company’s strategic vision to become a technology-driven business rather than merely a gaming company.

Useful resources

Academic resources

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press, Chapter 7, Discretionary Equity Investing.

Business resources

Business Insider Article on GameStop

Frick W. (2016) The Case for Activist Investors Harvard Business Review, 108–109.

Desjardine M., R. Durand (2021) Activist Hedge Funds: Good for Some, Bad for Others? Knowledge@HEC.

CNBC Article

Forbes Article

About the author

Article written in August 2022 by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Macro Funds

August 22, 2022 by Akshit GUPTA

Macro Funds

This article written by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022) explains marco funds which is a type of hedge fund based on the analysis of macroeconomic or political events.

Introduction

Macro funds, also known as global macro funds, are actively managed alternative investment vehicles (hedge funds) whose strategy profits from the broad market movements caused by macroeconomic (economic, fiscal and monetary) or geopolitical events. These funds typically invest in asset classes including equity, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. They invest in both the spot and derivatives markets. They use a mix of long and short positions in these asset classes to implement their market views to achieve superior returns (higher than a given benchmark).

Some key elements impacting the decisions taken by macro funds include:

Economic factors – Macro funds constantly monitor the economic data across different countries including interest rates, inflation rates, GDP growth, unemployment rates and industrial/retail growth rates to make investment decisions.
Mispricing – Macro funds try to arbitrage markets based on perceived mispricing.
Political situations – The political situations in different countries also play a major role in the investment decisions made by macro funds as unstable political situations can lead to low investor confidence and thus cause a decline in the financial markets.

Benefits of a macro funds

Like other types of hedge funds, macro funds aim at providing their clients (investors) with investments managed in an efficient manner to optimize expected returns and risk. Such funds are especially expected to diversify the clients’ portfolios. So, macro funds are often acknowledged as the alternative funds in the industry.

Other characteristics of macro funds

Other characteristics of macro funds (clients, fee structure, investment constraints) are similar to other types of hedge funds (see the posts Introduction to Hedge Funds and Hedge Funds).

Examples of macro funds strategies

A commonly used asset class in macro fund strategy includes currencies. Their exchange rates are affected by several factors including monetary and fiscal policies, economic factors like GDP growth and inflation and geopolitical situation. Black Wednesday is an example of an infamous event, where we can understand the different factors and use of macro fund strategies.

Black Wednesday

During the 1970s, an European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) was set up to reduce exchange rate variability and stabilize the monetary policies across the continent. Also, a stage was being set to introduce a unified common currency named Euro. The United Kingdom joined ERM in 1990 due to political instability in the country raising fears of higher currency fluctuations.

The pound sterling shadowed the German mark but owing to challenges faced by Britain at that point in time, including lower interest rates, higher inflation rates and an unstable economy, the currency traders weren’t satisfied with the decision.

Seeing the economic situation, George Soros, one of the most famous investors, used the macro fund strategy during 1992 when he took a short position in the pound sterling for $10 billion and made a $1 billion profit from his position.

▶ Akshit GUPTA Asset management firms

▶ Akshit GUPTA Hedge Funds

▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Introduction to Hedge Funds

▶ Akshit GUPTA Portrait of George Soros: A famous investor

Useful resources

Academic resources

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press, Chapter 11, Global macro Investing.

Business resources

JP. Morgan Asset Management

DeChesare Brian “Global Macro Hedge Funds: Living in an FX Traders’ Paradise?”

About the author

Article written in August 2022 by Akshit GUPTA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2019-2022).

Introduction to Hedge Funds

June 5, 2022 by Youssef LOURAOUI

In this article, Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022) elaborates on the concept of Hedge Funds. Hedge funds are a type of asset class that differs from standard fixed-income and equities investments in terms of risk/return profile.

The structure of this article is as follows: First, we will define a hedge fund. Second, we provide a historical perspective on the first known hedge fund. Third, we will discuss hedge fund fees. Fourth, we discuss the conventional long-short strategy and provide an overview of the major hedge fund strategies. And finally, we end by discussing the economic importance of hedge funds.

Introduction

There is no straightforward definition of a hedge fund. Simply said, a hedge fund is an investment vehicle that aims to create performance by employing a variety of complex trading strategies. When the first hedge fund was introduced, the term “hedge” referred to lowering risk by investing in both long and short positions at the same time.

Hedge funds are exempted from the financial regulations that apply to other investment vehicles such as mutual funds. On the one hand, hedge funds have a lot of freedom to implement their investment strategy and face minimal disclosure rules. Hedge funds have the freedom to utilize leverage using derivatives products. On the other hand, hedge funds are restricted in the way they raise money from investors. Hedge fund investors must be “accredited investors,” which means they must have a particular amount of financial wealth and/or financial education to invest. Hedge funds have also been subject to a non-solicitation restriction, which means they are not allowed to advertise or aggressively seek individuals for investment.

According to the Security Exchange Commission (SEC, ), the governmental branch for regulated financial markets in the US, a hedge fund can be defined as follows:

“Hedge fund’ is a general, non-legal term used to describe private, unregistered investment pools that traditionally have been limited to sophisticated, wealthy investors. Hedge funds are not mutual funds and, as such, are not subject to the numerous regulations that apply to mutual funds for the protection of investors – including regulations requiring a certain degree of liquidity, regulations requiring that mutual fund shares be redeemable at any time, regulations protecting against conflicts of interest, regulations to assure fairness in the pricing of fund shares, disclosure regulations, regulations limiting the use of leverage, and more.” (SEC)

The first hedge fund: Jones

In 1949, Alfred Winslow Jones is said to have founded the first professional hedge fund and is regarded as the “father of the hedge fund industry”. He set up the fund as a limited partnership, with the hedge fund manager providing significant initial capital and a few significant investors. The fund’s principal strategy was to use a long/short method, the fund being long on undervalued securities and short on overvalued securities. Jones based his investment approach on stock picking (he believed he lacked market timing skills). Hedge funds’ main idea is that they can use leverage to boost returns in both directions.

From 1955 to 1965, Jones is reported to have achieved a 670% return on his hedge fund by taking both long and short positions. Before Jones, short selling had been popular for a long time, but he realized that by balancing long and short positions, he could be relatively immune to overall market changes while benefiting from the relative outperformance of his long positions against his short positions. The performance of Jones’s fund is shown in Figure 1 about the Dow Jones Industrials index used as a benchmark and Fidelity’s highest performing mutual fund. Over the 1960-65 period, the fund managed to multiply its return by a factor of four, which is higher than the best performing mutual fund (Fidelity Trend Fund) and the Dow-Jones industrials.

Figure 1. Alfred Winslow Jones’s hedge fund performance between 1960-65.
img_SimTrade_jones_performance
Source: “The Jones Nobody Keeps Up With” (Fortune, 1966).

Development of hedge funds

Interest in hedge funds grew after Fortune magazine published Jones’s results in 1966, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) listed 140 hedge funds in 1968. As institutional investors began to embrace hedge funds in the 1990s, the hedge fund industry saw a huge spike in interest. Hedge funds with billions of dollars under management were typical in the 2000s, with total hedge fund assets reaching a peak of nearly $2 trillion before the global financial crisis of 2008, dropping during the crisis, and recently reached a new peak.

Hedge funds’ aggregate positions are much larger than their assets under management due to their leverage, and their trading volume is a much larger part of the aggregate trading volume than their relative position sizes due to their high turnover, so hedge fund trading now accounts for a significant portion of all trading. Given a limited demand for liquidity, there is a limited amount of profit to be made and a limited requirement for active investment in an optimally inefficient market, the quantity of capital committed to hedge funds cannot keep expanding.

Hedge funds fees

Among the most frequent fees in the hedge fund industry, we can name the following:

Management fee

Management fee represents the fees that the hedge funds collect to run their operations (salaries, infrastructure, etc.). The management fee is usually about 3%

Performance fee

The performance fee is a compensation when the hedge fund achieves a certain level of performance. This threshold, called the hurdle rate, represents the minimum performance that a hedge fund has to achieve to charge an incentive fee. This motivates the hedge fund manager to perform and to align its interest with its clients’ interests. Beyond the hurdle rate, the outperformance is shared between the hedge fund manager (20%) and the clients (80%).

The high water mark (HWM) provision is a mechanism where the hedge fund will only charge performance fees if it manages to deliver returns above the returns of the previous period. If the hedge fund is down 50%, the performance achieved to recover the losses (100% won’t be subject to performance fees). Only after recovering entirely from the drawdown, the hedge fund can be entitled to earn the performance fee.

A classic hedge fund strategy: the long-short strategy

The long-short strategy is the strategy implemented by the first hedge fund (Alfred Winslow Jones fund). According to Credit Suisse, long-short equity funds engage in both the long and short sides of the equity markets, to diversify or hedge across sectors, regions, and market capitalizations. Managers can switch from value to growth, from small to medium to large capitalization equities, and from net long to net short positions. Managers can also trade stock futures and options, as well as equity-related instruments and debt, and form more concentrated portfolios than classic long-only equity funds.

To illustrate a long-short strategy, we create a hedge fund portfolio based on two stocks from the US equity market. We pick one overvalued stock and one undervalued stock based on their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. We chose for this purpose Twitter (overvalued) and Pfizer (undervalued). We download a time series of three-month worth of data for two stocks (Twitter and Pfizer) and the S&P500 index.

Figure 2 represents the regression of the returns of the simulated hedge fund portfolio on the S&P500 index. We can appreciate a null slope (0.0936) of the regression indicating the low correlation of the hedge fund with the market represented by the S&P500 index. This strategy is market-neutral, meaning that the portfolio is not correlated directly with the market fluctuations. The performance of a zero-beta portfolio would be derived from the alpha, a key metric in the portfolio management industry.

Figure 2. Regression of the hedge fund return on the S&P500 market index.
Hedge fund portfolio regression
Source: computation by the author (data: Bloomberg).

We compute the return and volatility of each security and the market index as a starting point. We also determine the correlation of the stocks to the market index. For the short position (Twitter), the sign of the correlation inverts of the sign. We compute an equally-weighted portfolio composed of two stocks: a long position on Pfizer and a short position on Twitter. This portfolio delivered a return of 0.27%, which is better than the broader stock index return over the same period (-0.22%).

Figure 3 depicts the return of the hedge fund portfolio relative to the market index return. From the analysis, the long-short strategy managed to outperform the S&P500 market index by 49 basis points. Even if the market is in a bearish setting, the strategy managed to deliver positive returns as the short position helps to be uncorrelated the return of the hedge fund from the market return.

Figure 3. Return of the hedge fund relative to the S&P500 market index.
Long short strategy performance
Source: computation by the author (data: Bloomberg).

You can download below the Excel file below which gives the details of the computation of the long-short strategy example.

Hedge fund role in economy

Hedge funds, for example, are frequently criticized in the media. Companies, for example, dislike seeing their shares shorted because it indicates a belief that the company’s share price will fall. Short sellers, including hedge funds, are sometimes blamed for a company’s problems, even though the stock price is usually falling due to the company’s poor financial condition, not because of any other source.

Hedge funds, in general, serve several important functions in the economy. First, they improve market efficiency by gathering information about businesses and incorporating it into prices through their trades. Because the capital market is the tool used to allocate resources in the economy, increased efficiency can improve real economic outcomes. Companies with good growth prospects see their share prices rise when markets are efficient, allowing them to raise capital and fund new projects. Companies that produce goods and services that are no longer required to see their share prices fall and the factories may be repurposed for more productive purposes, possibly leading to a merger. Furthermore, when share prices reflect more information and are more efficient, CEO decisions may improve, and they may be more prudent if active investors are monitoring them. Hedge funds also serve as a source of liquidity for other investors who need to buy or sell (e.g., to smooth out their consumption), hedge or buy insurance, or simply enjoy certain types of securities. Finally, hedge funds offer investors another source to diversify their returns.

Why should I be interested in this post?

As an investor, hedge funds may provide an opportunity to diversify its global portfolios. Including hedge funds in a portfolio can help investors obtain absolute returns that are uncorrelated with typical bond/equity returns.

For practitioners, learning how to incorporate hedge funds into a standard portfolio and understanding the risks associated with hedge fund investing can be beneficial.

Useful resources

Academic research

Pedersen, L. H., 2015. Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined. Princeton University Press.

Business Analysis

Wikipedia Alfred Winslow Jones

Fortune (2015) The Jones Nobody Keeps Up With (Fortune, 1966).

SEC Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) – A Guide for Investors.

SEC Selected Definitions of “Hedge Fund”

Credit Suisse Hedge fund strategy

Credit Suisse Hedge fund performance

Credit Suisse Long-short strategy

Credit Suisse Long-short performance benchmark

About the author

The article was written in June 2022 by Youssef LOURAOUI (Bayes Business School, MSc. Energy, Trade & Finance, 2021-2022).

Hedge funds

April 18, 2025May 2, 2021 by Akshit GUPTA

Hedge funds

This article written by Akshit Gupta (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022) presents the role and functioning of a Hedge fund.

Introduction

Hedge funds are actively managed alternative investment vehicles that pools in money from several investors and invest in different asset classes. Only accredited investors have the access to invest in hedge funds. Accredited investors refer to high-net worth individuals, financial institutions, retail banks, and large corporations who satisfy certain conditions to obtain a special status to invest in these high-risk funds.

The first hedge fund was started in 1949 by Alfred Winslow Jones, coined as the father of the modern hedge fund industry. He tried to eliminate the systematic risk in his portfolio by buying stocks and short selling equal amounts of stocks at the same time. So, his portfolio returns were dependent on the choice of stocks he bought and sold rather than the direction in which the market moved.

Hedge funds use complex investment techniques to generate absolute market returns that are generally higher than the market benchmarks. These funds are less rigorously regulated (by the SEC in the US or the AMF in France) as compared to mutual funds by asset management firms or insurance companies which empowers them with greater flexibility.
The types of strategies used by hedge funds are risky and can lead to huge losses (like Long Term Capital Management in 1998 or Archegos Capital Management in 2021). In terms of performance, hedge funds try to achieve a positive performance regardless the direction of the market (up or down).

Benefits of a hedge funds

Hedge funds provide their clients (investors) with tools and mechanisms that enable them to handle their investments in an efficient manner and optimize their portfolios with high returns and well managed risk. The hedge funds invest in a variety of assets, thus diversifying the clients’ portfolios and dispersing their absolute returns. So, asset management firms are often acknowledged as the alternative funds in the industry.

Fee structure

Hedge funds usually follow the 2 and 20 fees structure practice. Under this practice, the hedge funds usually charge 2% management fees on the total assets under management (AUM) for the investor and 20% incentive fees on the total profits generated on the investments over the hurdle rate. The hurdle rate is generally the minimum returns that investors expects on their investments. The minimum return is set by the hedge fund while making investment decisions.

For example, a hedge fund has AUM worth $100 million and by the end of the year the total portfolio size is $140 million. The management fee is 2% and the incentive charges are 20% for a hurdle rate of 10%.

So, the hedge fund will receive total fees equivalent to:
The total fees is the sum of the management fee and the Incentive charges
Thus, total fees is equal to $8 million

(Calculation for the management fee: $100 million (Initial investment) x 2% which is $2 million
Calculation for the incentive charge: $100 million x max.(40% – 10%; 0) x 20% which is $6 million
Here, 40% is the portfolio return and 10% is the hurdle rate)

Types of strategies used by hedge funds

Hedge funds follow several strategies to try to get returns higher than the market returns. Some of the actively employed strategies are:

Long/Short equities

Long/short Equity strategy involves taking a long position and a short position on underlying stocks. The aim of this strategy is to find stocks that are undervalued and overvalued by the market and take long and short positions in them respectively. The positions can be taken by trading in the underlying shares or by trading in derivatives that have the same underlying.
The funds maintain a net equity exposure which can be positive or negative depending on the size of the long and short positions.

Event driven strategy

Under this strategy, the hedge funds invest their money on assets in which the investment returns, and risks are associated with specific events. The events can include corporate restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, spin-offs, bankruptcies, consolidations, etc. The hedge fund managers try to capitalize on the price inconsistencies that exist due to such events and use their expertise to generate good returns.

Relative value strategy

Hedge funds use relative value arbitrage to benefit from the discrepancies that exist in the prices of related assets (can be related in terms of historical price correlation, company size, industry, volume traded or several other factors). One of the strategies used under relative value arbitrage is called pairing strategy where hedge funds take positions in assets that are highly correlated (like on-the-run and off-the-run Treasury bonds). Relative value arbitrage strategy can be used on different asset classes including, bonds, equities, indices, commodities, currencies or derivatives.
The hedge fund manager takes a long position in the asset that is underpriced and simultaneously takes a short position in the relative asset that is overpriced. The long positions are highly leveraged which helps the manager to generate absolute returns. But this strategy can also lead to losses if the prices move in the opposite direction.

Distressed securities

Under this strategy, the hedge funds invest in companies that are experiencing distress due to any reason including operational inefficiencies, changes in senior management, or bankruptcy proceedings. The securities of these companies are often available at deep discounts and the hedge funds may see a high probability of reversal. When the reversal kicks-in, the hedge funds exit their positions with high returns.

Major hedge funds in the world

Hedge funds are usually ranked according to their asset under management (AUM). Well-known hedge funds are:

Hedge funds major
Source: https://www.pionline.com/interactive/largest-hedge-fund-managers-2020

Risks associated with hedge funds

Although the investments in hedge funds can generate absolute performance, they also come with high risk which can lead to huge losses to the investors. Some of the commonly associated risks with hedge fund investments are:

High risk exposure – the hedge funds invest in several asset classes with highly leveraged positions which can multiply the number of losses by several times. This characteristic of hedge funds makes it a risky investment vehicle.
Illiquidity – Some hedge funds require a lock-in period of 2 to 3 years on the investments made by the accredited investors. This characteristic makes hedge funds illiquid to investors who plan to redeem their investments early.
High fees and incentive charges – Most of the hedge funds follow a 2 and 20 fees structure. This means 2% fees on the total assets under management (AUM) for an investor and a 20% incentive charge on the returns generated by the hedge funds over the initially invested amount.
Restricted access – The investments in hedge funds are highly restricted to investors who qualify certain conditions to be deemed as accredited investors. This characteristic of a hedge fund makes it less accessible to investors who are willing to take high risks and invest in these funds.

Useful resources

Lasse Heje Pedersen (2015) Efficiently inefficient – How smart money invests & market prices are determined. Princeton University Press.

▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Introduction to Hedge Funds

▶ Shruti CHAND Financial leverage

▶ Akshit GUPTA Initial and maintenance margins in stocks

About the author

Article written by Akshit Gupta (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2019-2022).

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