Can technical analysis actually help to make better trading decisions?

June 14, 2023 by Theo SCHWERTLE

Can technical analysis actually help to make better trading decisions?

In this article, Theo SCHWERTLE (Maastricht University, School of Business and Economics, Bachelor in International Business, 2023) explains how technical analysis can actually help to make better trading decisions (or not).

Market efficiency

Let’s take a look at the different levels of market efficiency and their implications for a trader.

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) posits that market prices fully incorporate all available information. If this hypothesis is verified, it is infeasible to consistently achieve higher returns than the market on a risk-adjusted basis. According to the EMH, stocks are believed to consistently trade at their fair value on exchanges, precluding the possibility of purchasing undervalued stocks or selling overvalued ones, thus implicitly dismissing the efficiency of technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis. As such, the EMH suggests that outperforming the overall market through security selection or market timing is infeasible, and the only way for investors to attain higher returns is by taking on increased risk in their investments.

Definitions

The EMH has three forms: the weak form, the semi-strong form and the strong form. The weak form of the EMH asserts that historical market data (transaction prices and volumes) cannot be used to predict future price movements. The semi-strong form of the EMH asserts that publicly available information (historical market data, financial account published by firms, reports written by financial analysts, etc.) cannot be used to predict future price movements. The strong form of the EMH asserts that both public and private information cannot be used to predict future movements.

Tests of the EMH

Though the strong form of the EMH is generally rejected, scholars are less consistent with evidence for or against the weak or semi-strong form of the EMH. Focusing on technical analysis, a significant body of literature has examined the relationship between EMH and technical analysis (TA), with many scholars rejecting the weak form (Leigh et al., 2002; Eugster and Uhl, 2022). The results of the tests seem to depend on the length of the investment period, the EMH being less rejected for a longer investment period.

Technical analysis

In the world of finance, Technical Analysis serves as an essential tool for investors and traders alike. The methodology involves forecasting future price movements based on the historical data of financial instruments. This strategy pivots on two core principles: the market discounts everything, and prices move in trends (Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist, 2010).

Chartism is one of the oldest techniques in technical analysis. It rests on the identification and analysis of chart patterns and price formations, with chartists meticulously studying these patterns to anticipate future market trends (Lo, Mamaysky, & Wang, 2000). This form of analysis operates on the principle that certain patterns are recurring and that understanding these patterns can provide insights into future price movements.

Another time-tested tool is Moving Averages, a technique that seeks to smooth out price data by creating a consistently updated average price. This approach comes in several variants, with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) being the most prevalent. These techniques help to clear out the ‘noise’ from random short-term price fluctuations and allow analysts to focus on the overall trend direction.

In stark contrast to these conventional methods stands the modern, technology-driven approach of High Frequency Trading (HFT). This innovative form of trading capitalizes on the power of advanced algorithms and high-speed data processing to execute trades at astonishing speeds. Unlike traditional technical analysis, which primarily focuses on transaction prices and volumes, HFT leverages real-time data from the order-flow and the order-book, exploring minute market discrepancies that might otherwise go unnoticed (Aldridge, 2010).

All we need is short-term market inefficiencies

Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003) gave meaningful insight into the relationship between the weather and daily market index return, demonstrating that sunshine is strongly and significantly correlated with stock returns. In line with that argumentation, Edmans et al. (2007) investigate the stock market reaction to sudden changes in investor mood, using international soccer results as the primary mood variable. The results show a significant market decline after soccer losses in equity markets of the losing teams, with a loss in the World Cup elimination stage leading to a next-day abnormal stock return of −49 basis points. This effect is more substantial in small stocks and more meaningful games and is robust to methodological changes. The same loss effect could also be documented for other international tournaments.

So what does that mean? There are human biases that make humans so different from the rational being many financial theories suggest we are.

Discussion about the feasibility of technical analysis for hedge funds

Hedge funds are also using technical analysis in their decision-making process; however, the degree of utilization varies significantly. The main area where TA is used by hedge funds is to find areas of liquidity to full big positions.

Kavajecz und Odders-White (2004) explored the relationship between TA and liquidity by testing the hypotheses that support and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth on the limit order book and that moving-average forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. They found that technical support/resistance levels, as well as moving average indicators, are significantly related to the state of liquidity on the limit order book and concluded that it is tied to the strategic behavior of limit order traders. This provides a reliable method for practitioners to locate liquidity in the book and reduce transaction costs.

The main advantage of TA is the low cost to construct a market perspective as it requires only market data. The implementation of TA is lower than acquiring and analyzing public or private information. So, if used adequately it is in face the cheaper and more accessible investment approach compared to traditional financial analysis tools.

Sounds good! Where is the catch?

According to Timmermann and Granger (2004), using new financial prediction methods may lead to short-term gains as the information is rapidly incorporated into market prices making the market the more efficient. As these new financial prediction methods become more widely used by other market participants, their effectiveness decreases over time. This idea is supported by studies showing that many stock market anomalies diminish, vanish, or even reverse after they are documented in academic literature (publication on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) for example).

A broad study by Yamamoto (2012) investigated the profitability of exploiting short-term market inefficiencies and concluded that one could not generate consistent positive results that outperform a buy-and-hold strategy. Yamamoto (2012) analyzes technical strategies for 207 individual stocks in the Nikkei 225 over a one-year period and use two statistical procedures to reduce data-snooping bias (the data-snooping bias refers to the tendency to make false discoveries or draw incorrect conclusions when repeatedly testing and analyzing a dataset, often due to the increased likelihood of finding seemingly significant patterns or relationships by chance). The results indicate that all 9 technical trading strategies underperform the buy-and-hold strategy, suggesting that information on past prices and demand/supply imbalances are not sufficient for superior technical trading profits.

Conclusion

Short-term market inefficiencies can be exploited to generate positive returns. However, many of the found profitability diminish after introducing real market conditions, transaction fees or adjusting the returns for the increased risk. Generally, TA offers increased benefits over fundamental analysis in the short-term but loses ground with increased time as the market returns to efficiency. The difference in information costs motivates its popularity, but even if a profitable trading strategy is found, its benefits may only be enjoyed for a short time.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Technical analysis offers a different perspective on the market that is rarely touched on by university curriculums. This alternative approach is used by individual traders as well as institutional traders like hedge funds to find good entries and exits in the market. According to a survey by Menkhoff (2010), 77% of all hedge fund managers in their sample rate TA as really important to their decision-making, attributing a value of at least 10% to it in their decision-making process. About 20% of fund managers even indicate to prefer TA over fundamental analysis. So, it seems to offer some value, despite the academic criticism in line the efficiency of the market.

Useful resources

Academic articles

Edmans, A., García, D. & Norli, Y. (2007). Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns The Journal of Finance 62(4), 1967–1998.

Eugster, P. & Uhl, M. W. (2022). Technical analysis: Novel insights on contrarian trading. European Financial Management .

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance 25(2), 383-417.

Hirshleifer, D. & Shumway, T. (2003). Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather The Journal of Finance 58(3), 1009–1032.

Kavajecz, K. A. & Odders-White, E. R. (2004). Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision Review of Financial Studies 17(4), 1043–1071.

Leigh, W., Purvis, R. & Ragusa, J. M. (2002). Forecasting the NYSE composite index with technical analysis, pattern recogniser, neural network, and genetic algorithm: a case study in romantic decision support Decision Support Systems 32(4), 361–377.

Lo, A. W., Mamaysky, H., & Wang, J. (2000). Foundations of technical analysis: Computational algorithms, statistical inference, and empirical implementation. The Journal of Finance 55(4), 1705-1770.

Menkhoff, L. (2010). The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance 34(11), 2573–2586.

Timmermann, A. & Granger, C. W. (2004). Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting International Journal of Forecasting, 20(1), 15–27.

Yamamoto, R. (2012). Intraday technical analysis of individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(11), 3033–3047.

Books

Aldridge, I. (2010). High-frequency trading: a practical guide to algorithmic strategies and trading systems. John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J. R. (2010). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians. FT press.

Lewis, M. (2014). Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt. W. W. Norton & Company.

About the author

The article was written in June 2023 by Theo SCHWERTLE (Maastricht University, School of Business and Economics, Bachelor in International Business, 2018-2023).

The KOSPI 50 index

June 6, 2023 by Nithisha CHALLA

The KOSPI 50 index

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2023) presents the KOSPI 50 index representing the South Korean equity market and details its characteristics.

The KOSPI 50 index

A well-known stock market index in South Korea, the KOSPI 50 index serves as a crucial benchmark for the South Korean equity market. It represents the performance of the 50 biggest and busiest companies traded on the main South Korean stock exchange, the Korea Exchange (KRX), listed on the market.

The KOSPI 50 index, which was created on April 1, 2002, is managed by the Korea Exchange and is widely regarded as an accurate indicator of the Korean economy and its key sectors. Market capitalization, trading volume, and liquidity are used in the index selection process to make sure that only the most significant and representative companies from the Korean market are included.

The KOSPI 50, a market capitalization-weighted index, takes into account the market value of each constituent stock to reflect the relative importance of each stock. The KOSPI 50 is prominently displayed on trading platforms and financial websites, similar to other significant stock market indices, making it simple for investors and analysts worldwide to access. It is a crucial indicator of the state and trends of the Korean economy and is important for making investment decisions.

The ticker symbol commonly used in the financial industry to represent the KOSPI 50 index is “KOSPI50”.

Table 1 below gives the Top 10 stocks in the KOSPI 50 index in terms of market capitalization as of January 31, 2023.

Table 1. Top 10 stocks in the KOSPI 50 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Table 2 below gives the sector representation of the KOSPI 50 index in terms of number of stocks and market capitalization as of January 31, 2023.

Table 2. Sector representation in the KOSPI 50 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Calculation of the KOSPI 50 index value

The KOSPI 50 index is a float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index. It is adjusted for the proportion of shares that are available for trading in the market as well as the market value of each constituent stock. With the help of this weighting methodology, investors can get a complete picture of the Korean market by ensuring that larger companies have a greater influence on the index’s movements than smaller ones.

The formula to compute the KOSPI 50 index is given by

Float Adjusted Market Capitalization Index value

where I is the index value, k a given asset, K the number of assets in the index, P^k the market price of asset k, N^k the number of issued shares for asset k, F^k the float factor of asset k, and t the time of calculation of the index.

In a float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index, the weight of asset k is given by

Float Adjusted Market Capitalization Weighted Index Weight

Use of the KOSPI 50 index in asset management

The analysis of the companies that make up the KOSPI 50 index offers important new perspectives on the Korean economy, its key industries, and the elements that influence business success there. The index also acts as a crucial tool for investors, allowing them to assess the performance of their portfolios in comparison to the larger Korean market and make well-informed investment choices. It supports various asset management tasks, such as passive investments, evaluating corporate risk, asset allocation, and portfolio management, and offers investors insightful information.

Benchmark for equity funds

Investors can gain a thorough understanding of the South Korean market and make wise investment decisions by following the KOSPI 50 index. It is significant to remember that the KOSPI 50 index, which includes the 50 largest and most actively traded companies in South Korea, represents a particular market segment. While it offers an accurate indicator of the performance of these well-known businesses, it might not accurately reflect the performance of all markets and industry sectors nationwide. Investors should think about incorporating other indices, such as the KOSPI 200, which covers a wider range of companies listed on the Korea Exchange, or the MSCI Korea Index, which includes a more diverse set of companies, to obtain a more thorough evaluation of the South Korean market.

Financial products around the KOSPI 50 index

Different financial products linked to the KOSPI 50 index are available for investors looking to diversify their portfolios and increase their exposure to the South Korean stock market. These products offer chances to possibly profit from changes in the market and take part in the performance of the 50 biggest and most actively traded South Korean companies.

Here are some of the main financial products associated with the KOSPI 50 index:

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): similar to stocks, investors can trade and invest in ETFs that track the KOSPI 50 index. These ETFs offer a practical way to get exposure to the KOSPI 50 companies’ performance. The KODEX KOSPI 200 ETF and the Samsung KODEX Leverage ETF are two examples of KOSPI 50 ETFs.
Options and Futures Contracts: Investors can use options and futures contracts based on the KOSPI 50 index to manage risk, make predictions about market trends, or put trading strategies into practice. Investors can purchase or sell the index through these derivative contracts at predetermined future prices and dates.
Mutual Funds and Index Funds: A number of mutual funds and index funds concentrate their investments in the businesses represented by the KOSPI 50 index. These funds seek to match the performance of the index or build portfolios that closely resemble the index’s components. Through these funds, investors can gain exposure to the KOSPI 50, allowing for investment diversification and expert management.

Historical data for the KOSPI 50 index

How to get the data?

The KOSPI 50 index is the most common index used in finance, and historical data for the KOSPI 50 index can be easily downloaded from the internet.

For example, you can download data for the KOSPI 50 index from December 11, 1996 on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for KOSPI 50 index is ^KS11).

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

You can also download the same data from a Bloomberg terminal.

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the KOSPI 50 index.

Data file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the KOSPI 50 index from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on December 11, 1996. It also computes the returns (logarithmic returns) from closing prices.

Table 3 below represents the top of the data file for the KOSPI 50 index downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 3. Top of the data file for the KOSPI 50 index.
Top of the file for the KOSPI 50 index data
Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Evolution of the KOSPI 50 index

Figure 1 below gives the evolution of the KOSPI 50 index from December 11, 1996 to December 30, 2022 on a daily basis.

Figure 1. Evolution of the KOSPI 50 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Figure 2 below gives the evolution of the KOSPI 50 index returns from December 11, 1996 to December 30, 2022 on a daily basis.

Figure 2. Evolution of the KOSPI 50 index returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the KOSPI 50 index

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the KOSPI 50 index.

Table 4 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the KOSPI 50 index:

The mean
The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
The skewness
The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 4. Summary statistics for the KOSPI 50 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the KOSPI 50 index returns

Historical distribution

Figure 3 represents the historical distribution of the KOSPI 50 index daily returns for the period from December 11, 1996 to December 30, 2022.

Figure 3. Historical distribution of the KOSPI 50 index returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from December 11, 1996 to December 30, 2022. The mean of daily returns is equal to 0.02% and the standard deviation of daily returns is equal to 1.37% (or equivalently 3.94% for the annual mean and 28.02% for the annual standard deviation as shown in Table 3 above).

Figure 4 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the KOSPI 50 index daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from December 11, 1996 to December 30, 2022.

Figure 4. Gaussian distribution of the KOSPI 50 index returns.
Gaussian distribution of the daily KOSPI 50 index returns
Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the KOSPI 50 index returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the KOSPI 50 index.

Table 5 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the KOSPI 50 index:

The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 5. Risk measures for the KOSPI 50 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the KOSPI 50 index while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the KOSPI 50 index.

Why should I be interested in this post?

For a number of reasons, management students (as future managers and individual investors) should learn about the KOSPI 50 index. The index includes wide range of industries, including energy, finance, telecommunications, and consumer goods, and it covers the biggest and most liquid German companies. Understanding how the index is constructed, how it performs, and the companies that make up the index is important for anyone studying finance or business in Russia or interested in investing in German equities.

Individual investors can assess the performance of their own investments in the German equity market with the KOSPI 50 index. Last but not least, a lot of asset management firms base their mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the KOSPI 50 index which can considered as interesting assets to diversify a portfolio. Learning about these products and their portfolio and risk management applications can be valuable for management students.

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Business

Wikipedia What is the KOSPI 50 index

PWC A guide to listing on the Korean exchange

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for the KOSPI 50 index

About the author

The article was written in June 2023 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2023).

The OMX Copenhagen 25 (OMXC 25) index

June 6, 2023 by Nithisha CHALLA

The OMX Copenhagen 25 (OMXC 25) index

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2021-2023) presents the OMX Copenhagen 25 (OMXC25 or OMXC 25) index representing the Danish equity market and details its characteristics.

The OMX Copenhagen 25 index

The 25 biggest and busiest companies listed on Nasdaq Copenhagen, the main stock exchange in Denmark, make up the OMX Copenhagen 25 (OMXC 25) index, which is a market-capitalization-weighted index. With 1,000 points as the base point, the index was introduced on December 4th, 1996.

Nasdaq Copenhagen chooses the stocks for the OMXC 25 index, taking into account elements like market capitalization, liquidity, and free float. To maintain its representation of the Danish stock market, the index is reviewed twice a year, in June and December, and rebalanced as necessary.

The OMXC 25 is a market-capitalization-weighted index, which means that the index’s weight is based on the market capitalization of each company. This increases the OMXC 25’s comparability to the Danish market as a whole.

Investors and analysts pay close attention to the performance of the OMXC 25 index, which is widely used as a benchmark for the Danish stock market. Through financial products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds that follow the OMXC 25 index, investors can gain exposure to the Danish market. The ticker symbol “OMXC25” is frequently used in trading platforms and financial websites to denote the OMXC 25 index.

Table 1 below gives the Top 10 stocks in the OMXC 25 index in terms of market capitalization as of January 31, 2023.

Table 1. Top 10 stocks in the OMXC 25 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Table 2 below gives the sector representation of the OMXC 25 index in terms of number of stocks and market capitalization as of January 31, 2023.

Table 2. Sector representation in the OMXC 25 index.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Calculation of the OMXC 25 index value

The performance of the 25 most actively traded and highly capitalized companies listed on the Danish Nasdaq Copenhagen stock exchange is reflected in the OMX Copenhagen 25 (OMXC 25) index, which is a float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index. The index is evaluated twice a year by Nasdaq Copenhagen and includes businesses from a variety of industries, including technology, healthcare, and finance. Each year, the index is rebalanced in June and December, and the companies that make up the index are chosen using criteria like market capitalization, trading volume, and free float.

The formula to compute the OMXC 25 index is given by

Float Adjusted Market Capitalization Index value

In a float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index, the weight of asset k is given by

Float Adjusted Market Capitalization Weighted Index Weight

Use of the OMXC 25 index in asset management

A common benchmark used by investors to evaluate the performance of their investment portfolios in relation to the Danish stock market is the OMXC 25 index. Investors and analysts can learn a lot about the state of the Danish economy overall and the performance of important industries like technology, healthcare, and industrials by closely following the changes in the OMXC 25 index. Through ticker symbols like “OMXC25” or “OMXC25.CO,” the index is frequently mentioned in financial news outlets and is readily available to investors and traders worldwide.