Cardano: Exploring the Future of Blockchain Technology 

 Snehasish CHINARA

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains the cryptocurrency Cardano.

Historical context and background

Cardano is a blockchain platform that was founded in 2017 by Charles Hoskinson, one of the co-founders of Ethereum. The project was initiated by Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), a technology company focused on blockchain and cryptocurrency. Cardano’s development was guided by a scientific philosophy and peer-reviewed research, aiming to create a more scalable, sustainable, and interoperable blockchain platform. Cardano is named after Gerolamo Cardano, the Italian mathematician, whereas the cryptocurrency associated with the platform is named after Ada Lovelace, the English mathematician.

Cardano distinguishes itself through its layered architecture, which separates the platform’s settlement layer (Cardano Settlement Layer, CSL) from its computation layer (Cardano Computation Layer, CCL). This separation allows for greater flexibility and scalability, as well as easier implementation of updates and improvements.

Another notable feature of Cardano is its consensus mechanism, called Ouroboros, which is based on a proof-of-stake algorithm. Ouroboros aims to achieve both security and scalability by allowing users to participate in the consensus process based on the amount of cryptocurrency they hold, rather than requiring expensive computational resources like Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism.

Cardano’s development has been divided into phases, each focusing on different aspects of the platform’s functionality and features. These phases include Byron (foundation), Shelley (decentralization), Goguen (smart contracts), Basho (scaling), and Voltaire (governance). As of the time of writing, Cardano has successfully completed the Byron and Shelley phases, with ongoing work on the Goguen phase, which will enable the implementation of smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps) on the platform.

Cardano Logo
 Cardano Logo
Source: Cardano.

Figure 1. Key Dates in Cardano History

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Key features

    Layered Architecture

    Cardano’s architecture is divided into two layers – the Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) and the Cardano Computation Layer (CCL). This separation allows for greater flexibility, scalability, and easier implementation of updates and improvements.

    Ouroboros Consensus Protocol:

    Cardano uses the Ouroboros proof-of-stake consensus algorithm, which is designed to be secure, scalable, and energy-efficient. It allows users to participate in the consensus process based on the amount of cryptocurrency they hold, rather than requiring expensive computational resources.

    Scalability

    Cardano is designed to be highly scalable, capable of handling a large number of transactions per second. Through its layered architecture and consensus mechanism, Cardano aims to achieve scalability without sacrificing security or decentralization.

    Interoperability

    Cardano aims to enable interoperability between different blockchain networks and protocols. This will allow for seamless transfer of assets and data between different platforms, facilitating greater connectivity and usability of decentralized applications (dApps).

    Smart Contracts

    Cardano is developing support for smart contracts, which are self-executing contracts with the terms of the agreement directly written into code. Smart contracts will enable the creation of decentralized applications (dApps) on the Cardano platform, opening up a wide range of possibilities for developers and users.

    Governance

    Cardano has a built-in governance mechanism that allows stakeholders to participate in the decision-making process for the future development of the platform. This includes voting on proposals for protocol upgrades, funding development projects, and other governance-related decisions.

    Formal Verification

    Cardano emphasizes formal methods and peer-reviewed research in its development process. This includes using formal verification techniques to ensure the correctness and security of its protocols and smart contracts, reducing the risk of bugs and vulnerabilities.

Use cases

    Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

    Cardano’s smart contract capabilities can facilitate various DeFi applications, including decentralized exchanges (DEXs), lending platforms, stablecoins, and automated market makers (AMMs). Smart contracts on Cardano can enable programmable financial transactions without the need for intermediaries, providing users with greater control over their assets and reducing counterparty risk.

    Supply Chain Management

    Cardano’s blockchain can be utilized to track and authenticate products throughout the supply chain, ensuring transparency and accountability. By recording every step of a product’s journey on the blockchain, stakeholders can verify its origin, quality, and authenticity, thereby reducing fraud, counterfeiting, and logistical inefficiencies.

    Identity Management

    Cardano’s blockchain can serve as a secure and decentralized platform for identity management, enabling individuals to control and manage their digital identities without relying on centralized authorities. By leveraging cryptographic techniques, users can securely authenticate themselves and access various services, such as voting, healthcare, and financial transactions, while maintaining privacy and security.

    Voting and Governance

    Cardano’s blockchain can support transparent and tamper-resistant voting and governance systems, enabling communities to make collective decisions and govern decentralized organizations (DAOs). By using blockchain technology, voting processes can be made more secure, efficient, and auditable, ensuring fair and democratic outcomes.

    Tokenization of Assets

    Cardano’s blockchain can tokenize various real-world assets, such as real estate, stocks, and commodities, making them easily tradable and transferable on a global scale. By representing assets as digital tokens on the blockchain, ownership rights can be easily verified, fractional ownership can be enabled, and liquidity can be increased, unlocking new opportunities for investment and asset management.

Technology and Underlying Blockchain

Cardano is built on a multi-layered architecture designed to provide scalability, interoperability, and sustainability. At its core, Cardano utilizes a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism called Ouroboros, which offers a more energy-efficient and secure alternative to traditional proof-of-work (PoW) systems. Ouroboros divides time into epochs and slots, with slot leaders responsible for creating new blocks and validating transactions within each slot. This approach ensures that the blockchain remains secure and decentralized while enabling high transaction throughput and low latency.

Cardano’s blockchain consists of two main layers: the Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) and the Cardano Computation Layer (CCL). The CSL serves as the foundation for the platform’s native cryptocurrency, ADA, and facilitates secure and efficient peer-to-peer transactions. It employs a UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model similar to Bitcoin, where transactions are represented as inputs and outputs, ensuring transparency and immutability.

On top of the CSL, the CCL enables the execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps) using Plutus, Cardano’s purpose-built programming language. Plutus is based on Haskell, a functional programming language known for its safety and reliability, and allows developers to write smart contracts with formal verification capabilities, ensuring correctness and security. Additionally, Cardano supports interoperability with other blockchains through sidechains and cross-chain communication protocols, enabling seamless integration with existing infrastructure and networks.

Cardano’s development is guided by a rigorous scientific approach, with ongoing research and peer-reviewed papers driving innovation and advancement. The platform’s roadmap is divided into distinct phases, including Byron (foundation), Shelley (decentralization), Goguen (smart contracts), Basho (scaling), and Voltaire (governance), each focusing on specific features and functionalities. This modular approach allows for continuous improvement and evolution, ensuring that Cardano remains at the forefront of blockchain technology.

Supply of Coins

The supply of coins for Cardano (ADA) is governed by a predetermined protocol established during its initial launch. The total maximum supply of ADA is capped at 45 billion coins. Unlike some cryptocurrencies that have fixed supplies, Cardano’s distribution occurs gradually through a process called “minting.” During the initial phase, ADA tokens were distributed through a public sale and allocated to early supporters, development, and the Cardano treasury. Ongoing minting of ADA occurs through the process of staking, where ADA holders can delegate their coins to stake pools to participate in the network’s consensus and earn rewards. This incentivizes stakeholders to actively participate in the security and governance of the network while also distributing newly minted coins in a decentralized manner. As a result, the circulating supply of ADA gradually increases over time, with new coins being minted and distributed to participants in the Cardano ecosystem.

Historical data for Cardano

How to get the data?

The Cordano is popular cryptocurrency on the market, and historical data for the Cordano such as prices and volume traded can be easily downloaded from the internet sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Blockchain.com & CoinMarketCap. For example, you can download data for Cardano on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for Cardano is ADA-USD).

Figure 2. Cordano data

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Historical data for the Cardano (ADA) market prices

Cardano (ADA) has experienced notable fluctuations in its market price since its inception, reflecting both broader trends in the cryptocurrency market and developments specific to the Cardano project. Following its launch in 2017, ADA initially saw rapid growth, fueled by enthusiasm for its innovative technology and ambitious roadmap. However, like many cryptocurrencies, ADA’s price has been subject to volatility, with periods of sharp appreciation followed by corrections and consolidation. Historical data for Cardano’s market prices reveals a series of peaks and troughs, influenced by factors such as market sentiment, regulatory developments, technological milestones, and macroeconomic trends. Despite this volatility, Cardano has maintained its position as one of the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, attracting a dedicated community of supporters and investors. As the project continues to evolve and achieve key milestones, its market price remains closely watched by traders, investors, and stakeholders in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Figure 3 below represents the evolution of the price of Cardano (ADA) in US dollar over the period November 2017 – May 2024. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 3. Evolution of Cardano price

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the Cardano (ADA).

Download R file

Data file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the Cardano (ADA) from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on November, 2017.

Table 1 below represents the top of the data file for the Cardano (ADA) downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 1. Top of the data file for the Cardano

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Download the Python code for USD Coin data

Python script to download Cardano (ADA) historical data and save it to an Excel sheet::

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol for Cardano “ADA-USD”

Cardano_ticker = “ADA-USD”

# Define the date range for historical data

start_date = “2020-01-01”

end_date = “2022-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance

Cardano_data = yf.download(Cardano_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame from the downloaded data

Cardano_df = pd.DataFrame(Cardano_data)

# Define the Excel file path

excel_file_path = “Cardano _historical_data.xlsx”

# Save the data to an Excel sheet

Cardano_df.to_excel(excel_file_path, sheet_name=”Cardano Historical Data”)

print(f”Data saved to {excel_file_path}”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download.

Evolution of the Cardano (ADA)

Figure 4 below gives the evolution of the Cardano (ADA) on a daily basis.

Figure 4. Evolution of the Cardano (ADA)

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Figure 5 below gives the evolution of the Cardano (ADA) returns from November, 2017 to May, 2024 on a daily basis.

Figure 5. Evolution of the Cardano returns

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the Cardano (ADA)

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the Cardano (ADA).

Table 2 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the Cardano (ADA):

  • The mean
  • The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
  • The skewness
  • The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 2. Summary statistics for Cardano.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the Cardano (ADA) returns

Historical distribution

Figure 6 represents the historical distribution of the Cardano (ADA) daily returns for the period from November, 2017 to May, 2024.

Figure 6. Historical Cardano distribution of the returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from November, 2017 to May, 2024.

Figure 7 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the Ethereum daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from November, 2017 to May, 2024.

Figure 7. Gaussian distribution of the Cardano returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the Cardano (ADA) returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the Cardano (ADA).

Table 3 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the Cardano (ADA):

  • The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
  • The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 3. Risk measures for the Cardano.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the Cardano(ADA) while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the Cardano(ADA).

Why should I be interested in this post?

This post provides a compelling exploration of Cardano, catering to both novices and seasoned cryptocurrency enthusiasts alike. It delves into Cardano’s innovative blockchain technology and its role in revolutionizing various sectors, including finance, governance, and social impact initiatives. By understanding Cardano’s layered architecture, consensus mechanism, and ongoing development phases, readers can gain valuable insights into its potential to address scalability, interoperability, and sustainability challenges in the blockchain space. Moreover, the post examines Cardano’s historical performance, market dynamics, and community-driven governance model, offering invaluable perspectives for investors, traders, and stakeholders. Whether you’re intrigued by cutting-edge blockchain solutions or seeking investment opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, this post provides comprehensive insights into the significance and potential of Cardano in shaping the future of decentralized technologies.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

About cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA How to get crypto data

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

About statistics

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Moments de la distribution

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Mesures de risques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Returns

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for Cardano

CoinMarketCap Historical data for Cardano

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024).

Posted in Contributors | Leave a comment

Morningstar

Morningstar

Nithisha CHALLA

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024) presents Morningstar, which provides financial data, news and analytics for the financial community.

Introduction

Morningstar is a leading provider of independent investment research, data, and analysis, dedicated to helping investors make informed decisions and achieve financial success. Their mission is to provide investors with unbiased insights, trusted research, and actionable data to navigate the complexities of the financial markets. Whether it is for a novice investor seeking guidance or a seasoned professional managing portfolios, Morningstar’s platform offers valuable resources to support their investment journey.

Logo of Morningstar
Logo of Morningstar
Source: Morningstar

History

Morningstar, Inc. is an American financial services firm headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and was founded by Joe Mansueto in 1984. Its initial investment was of US$80,000. In July 1999, Morningstar accepted an investment of US$91 million from SoftBank in return for a 20 percent stake in the company. The two companies had formed a joint venture in Japan the previous year.

Morningstar’s initial public offering occurred on May 3, 2005, with 7,612,500 shares at $18.50 each. The manner in which Morningstar went public is notable. They elected to follow Google’s footsteps and use the OpenIPO method rather than the traditional method. This allowed individual investors to bid on the price of the stock, and allowed all investors equal access.

In 2006, Morningstar acquired Ibbotson Associates, Inc., an investment research firm. In 2007, Morningstar acquired the mutual fund data business of S&P Global. In 2010, Morningstar acquired credit rating agency Realpoint for $52 million and begins offering structured credit ratings and research to institutional investors.

In the same year, Morningstar acquired Old Broad Street Research Ltd. (OBSR), a UK-based provider of fund research, ratings and investment advisory services, for $18.3 million. After the acquisition, renamed as Morningstar OBSR. In 2014, Morningstar acquired ByAllAccounts, Inc., a provider of innovative data aggregation technology for financial applications. In 2016, Morningstar acquires remaining ownership of PitchBook Data for approximately $225 million.

In 2019, Morningstar acquired the world’s fourth largest credit rating agency DBRS for $669 million. After the acquisition, DBRS merged with Morningstar’s credit rating business. In 2020, Morningstar entered into an agreement to acquire Sustainalytics, a research and ratings firm specializing in environmental, social and governance (ESG) insights. In 2021, Morningstar announced it would acquire the UK and international operations of the Australian wealth management platform Praemium.

In 2022, Morningstar announced that it will acquire the S&P Global-owned Leveraged Commentary & Data (LCD), a company specializing in leveraged loan market data, for $600 million up to $650 million. Today, from retirement planning to ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing, Morningstar remains committed to helping individuals and institutions navigate the complexities of the financial markets and achieve their financial goals with confidence.

Key Components of Morningstar

Earnings Estimates

Price/projected earnings for a stock is the ratio of the company’s most recent month-end share price to the company’s estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the current fiscal year. According to Morningstar’s website, if a third-party estimate for the current year EPS is not available, the company will calculate an internal estimate based on the most recently reported EPS and average historical earnings growth rates.

Morningstar generates this figure in-house based on stock statistics from our internal equities databases. For stocks, this figure is calculated monthly. For funds and portfolios, Morningstar updates this figure upon receipt of the most-recent portfolio holdings from the asset manager.

The P/E ratio relates the price of the stock to the per-share earnings of the company. A high P/E generally indicates that the market will pay more to obtain the company because it has confidence in the company’s ability to increase its earnings. Conversely, a low P/E indicates that the market has less confidence that the company’s earnings will increase, and therefore will not pay as much for its stock. In most cases high average P/E ratio indicates a manager has paid a premium for stocks that have a high potential for increased earnings. If the average P/E ratio is low, the manager may believe that the stocks have an overlooked or undervalued potential for appreciation.

Revenue Projections

Morningstar aggregates earnings estimates and consensus revenue forecasts from analysts, providing insights into market expectations for future revenue levels. This data helps investors gauge sentiment and anticipate potential revenue surprises. Morningstar presents revenue projections and growth rates based on proprietary models and industry analysis.

For example, on Feb 22, 2024, Morningstar’s chief executive officer, Kunal Kapoor said that “We finished 2023 on a strong note, crossing $2 billion in revenue for the fiscal year and delivering meaningful increases in organic revenue, margins, and cash flow for the quarter”. This not only implements that the company has been successful but also shows how reliable the company data is for the investors.

Forecasts for Key Financial Metrics

Morningstar calculates and forecasts key profitability ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and operating margins. These metrics indicate a company’s efficiency and financial health, aiding investors in evaluating investment opportunities. It provides cash flow projections, including operating cash flow, free cash flow, and cash flow from investing and financing activities. Investors can analyze cash flow trends and liquidity positions to assess a company’s ability to generate and manage cash.

In the company website, investors can access historical data and perform comparisons of key financial metrics over time, across companies, or within industries. This helps identify trends, benchmark performance, and identify investment opportunities.

Coverage

Morningstar offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with approximately $286 billion in assets under advisement and management as of Dec. 31, 2023. The Company operates through wholly- or majority-owned subsidiaries in 32 countries.

According to Morningstar, the company website maintains coverage oMorningstar.com offers coverage of 950 stocks, 1,150 mutual funds, and 300 ETFs, plus market news, economic analysis, portfolio-planning insights, and investment commentary.

Period

Morningstar offers several periods of windows to access and analyse the data, such as Single Period(certain definite time), Trailing Periods(end date is fixed), Rolling Window(typically used to measure consistency of data), Forward Extending Window (fixes the start date for each time period), Regular Periods from start and Regular Periods from end. These various options give the investors detailed and customised analysis of what they are looking for.

Frequency

The period and frequency of forecasts on Morningstar vary based on user needs and market dynamics. Morningstar Quantitative Rating has the unique advantage of maintaining a monthly update cycle.

Firms and Financial analysts

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment insights in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The Company offers an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers and owners, retirement plan providers and sponsors, and institutional investors in the debt and private capital markets. Morningstar has the one of the largest independent manager research teams in the world with more than 100 analysts covering more than 4000 unique funds.

Pricing

The business model of Morningstar is a three tier based pricing namely License-based, Asset-based and Transaction-based.

License-based: The majority of the research, data, and proprietary platforms are accessed via subscriptions or contract-based licensing arrangements that grant access on either a per user or enterprise-basis for a specified period of time. Licensed-based revenue includes Morningstar Data, Morningstar Direct, Morningstar Advisor Workstation, Morningstar Office, PitchBook Data, Premium Memberships on Morningstar.com, and other similar products.

Asset-based: They charge basis points and other fees for assets under management or advisement. Morningstar Investment Management, Workplace Solutions, and Morningstar Indexes products all fall under asset-based revenue.

Transaction-based: Ad sales on Morningstar.com and their Credit Ratings products comprise the majority of the products that are transactional, or one-time, in nature, versus the recurring revenue streams represented by their licensed and asset-based products.

Use of Morningstar by the Financial Community

Benchmark for Analysis

Company is known as a benchmark for analysis in the financial market. Over the years their strategy has delivered excellent diversification and risk-adjusted returns. Since the September 2000 start of its longest-tenured manager, Rolley, the fund’s 7.7% annualized gain through the end of March 2024 beat the average global allocation Morningstar Category fund by more than 3 percentage points with better Sharpe and Sortino ratios, measures of risk-adjusted results.

Market Expectations

Morningstar provides access to economic data and forecasts that shape market expectations. Users can track indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment figures, and interest rate projections to anticipate broader economic trends.

Earnings Season Preparation

During earnings season, Morningstar offers detailed analysis of company earnings reports relative to consensus estimates. Investors can assess whether companies meet, exceed, or fall short of market expectations, influencing stock prices and investor sentiment.

For a deeper understanding, this is an example of how they would state seasons preparation – “I think third-quarter earnings in and of themselves will generally be very strong. Management guidance last quarter probably shouldn’t be all that difficult to beat. And also the U.S. has just remained defiant in the face of tight monetary policy. So, economic growth has been much stronger than we had originally expected. In fact, if you look at our numbers here, we just recently updated our GDP forecast for the third quarter to 3.9%.”

Morningstar and Tests of Market Efficiency

Academic works

Morningstar conducts and publishes academic research on market efficiency, analyzing factors that contribute to market anomalies and deviations from efficient market hypotheses. This research informs investment strategies and challenges conventional market theories. The efficient-market hypothesis, or EMH, implies that the market quickly and accurately incorporates all information regarding a stock’s actual value into its price. They believe that Investors can’t gain an informational advantage and shouldn’t try to beat the market. Instead, they should simply track the market through a broad market index fund.

Information Dissemination

Morningstar facilitates information dissemination and transparency, providing investors with access to comprehensive data and research reports. By empowering investors with timely and accurate information, Morningstar contributes to market efficiency by reducing information asymmetry.

Pros and Cons

Morningstar compares fund performance against relevant benchmarks and market indices, offering insights into fund managers’ ability to generate alpha (excess returns). By evaluating relative performance, Morningstar assesses market efficiency and the value of active management.

Morningstar’s performance attribution analysis helps investors evaluate the effectiveness of investment strategies and identify sources of outperformance or underperformance.

On the other side, Morningstar is primarily a research and analysis platform, and it may not offer direct trading capabilities or execution of investment transactions. Like any investment service, Morningstar’s ratings and recommendations are based on historical data and assumptions, and they may not fully anticipate future market fluctuations or uncertainties.

Conclusion

Morningstar offers valuable resources for investors seeking to research, analyze, and manage their investments effectively. Understanding the pros and cons can help investors leverage Morningstar’s strengths while being mindful of potential limitations or considerations.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Understanding how financial professionals use platforms like Morningstar can contribute to your professional development, especially if you’re pursuing a career in finance, investment management, or financial advising. It demonstrates your interest in industry trends and best practices.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

   ▶ Louis DETALLE The importance of data in finance

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Earnings per share

Useful resources

Morningstar Morningstar, Inc. Reports Fourth-Quarter, Full-Year 2023 Financial Results

Wikipedia Morningstar

Morningstar Articles, products and services for professional investors

Morningstar Performance Reporting – Time Periods

Morningstar Earnings Season: What to Expect

About the author

The article was written in May 2024 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024).

Posted in Contributors | Leave a comment

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Nithisha CHALLA

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024) presents Bloomberg, which provides financial data, news and analytics for the financial community.

Bloomberg

Bloomberg is a company that provides financial data, news, and analytics to people in finance and other industries. The company was created to address the need for better financial data and analytics access in the business world. Bloomberg’s flagship product is the Bloomberg Terminal, a computer software system that provides real-time data on financial markets, economic indicators, and news.

Logo of Bloomberg
Logo of Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

History

Bloomberg LP was founded in 1981 by Michael Bloomberg, a former investment banker who recognized the growing demand for reliable financial information and analytics. The company initially focused on developing and selling computer terminals that provided real-time data on stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments.

Bloomberg’s key innovation, Bloomberg Terminal, was introduced in the early 1980s. This groundbreaking platform revolutionized the way financial professionals accessed market data and news, offering a comprehensive toolset for trading, analysis, and research.

Over the years, Bloomberg expanded its offerings beyond terminals to include data analytics, financial software, and media services. Bloomberg News, launched in 1990, became a prominent source of business and financial journalism, providing timely news coverage and insightful analysis to subscribers worldwide.

In the 21st century, Bloomberg continued to innovate and diversify its business, introducing new products and services tailored to the evolving needs of the financial industry. The company expanded its global presence with offices in major financial centers across North America, Europe, Asia, and beyond.

Today, the company’s commitment to innovation, integrity, and excellence has solidified its position as a trusted partner for businesses, governments, and institutions seeking reliable financial information and insights.

Bloomberg has evolved since its introduction in 1981 and has grown the company from a single location to 176 locations and with 20000 employees. Bloomberg with over 40 years of history, facilitates bottom-up and top-down analysis to better assess potential growth and risk as well as future value across industry, sector, index, country, and region.

Bloomberg covers a wide range of firms across different industries, sectors, and regions. According to Chen (2023), Bloomberg grew to a leading financial company with over 325,000 subscriptions to its professional services, almost 1 million global circulations of Bloomberg Businessweek, and over 150 news bureaus internationally. To support this massive network of financial information, data encryption, messaging, and trading, Bloomberg employs over 4,000 computer engineers around the globe.

Key Components of Bloomberg

Earnings Estimates

Bloomberg provides estimates and forecasts about how companies will perform financially. It collects data from many sources and use it to predict things like earnings and revenue for different businesses.

According to Guttmann from Statista (2022), Bloomberg LP, which operates within the business of information services, news services, broadcasting, streaming, and print, generated an estimated 12.2 billion U.S. dollars. A year earlier, the company’s revenue results stood at 10 billion dollars.

Revenue Projections

Alongside earnings estimates, Bloomberg provides forecasts on how much revenue companies are expected to generate. This helps stakeholders analyze and project the growth and performance of businesses over specific periods.

For example, on June 01, 2023, Bloomberg Intelligence released an expected revenue projection on the AI industry for the next ten years stating “Rising demand for generative AI products could add about $280 billion of new software revenue and the Emerging Industry Could Grow at a CAGR of 42% Over the Next 10 Years”. This helps stakeholders of the respective industry to analyze, project, and invest accordingly.

Forecasts for Key Financial Metrics

Bloomberg’s platform includes forecasts for various important financial metrics beyond earnings and revenue, such as cash flow, profit margins, and growth rates. These forecasts assist in assessing the overall financial health and prospects of companies.

In April 2024, Bloomberg launched a point-in-time data solution that gives quants a competitive edge. By pre-ingesting, mapping, and linking many different data sources together, Bloomberg allows customers to significantly reduce the time needed to generate signals or insights. With this launch, Bloomberg is responding to customers’ need for differentiated, value-adding data with standardized company-level fundamentals, estimates, and deep industry-specific metrics, alongside macro information.

Coverage

Bloomberg covers a wide range of companies across different industries, from large corporations to smaller businesses. This extensive coverage ensures that users have access to comprehensive financial data and insights.

Bloomberg Markets maintains coverage of stocks, bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and forex markets from more than 160 countries. Bloomberg Politics holds the largest news agency in the world in US politics and major global events with more than 1000 reporters and staff. Bloomberg News publishes around 5000 stories daily.

Period

Bloomberg usually provides data with the longest available time period. For example, for Bitcoin data starts in 2010.

Frequency

The period and frequency of forecasts on Bloomberg vary based on user needs and market dynamics. Users can access real-time updates and forecasts as frequently as necessary to stay informed about market changes and company performance.

Bloomberg offers the only cloud-native real-time data delivery option suitable for capital markets use. It delivers B-PIPE through an intra-cloud connection to a managed virtual private cloud on Amazon Web Services (AWS) via AWS Private Link. This low-latency option provides speed, reliability, and security via connectivity that remains solely in AWS.

Pricing

The specific pricing for accessing Bloomberg data is mentioned on the Bloomberg website and it states to have categories like all-in access, limited access, and also has special student access for limited data. The cost likely varies based on the package and offerings selected, which can include different data sets, yearly or monthly subscriptions, and access methods. For detailed pricing information, it is recommended to directly go through the Bloomberg website as it includes very precise information that pretty much caters to all the needs based on the functionality.

Bloomberg charges a fee for its services, usually on a subscription basis. The cost can be high, but many financial professionals find it worth it for the valuable information they receive.

Use of Bloomberg by the Financial Community

Benchmark for Analysis

Professionals rely on Bloomberg’s extensive database of financial data, economic indicators, and market news to conduct in-depth analyses of companies, industries, and markets. The platform provides powerful tools and customizable features that enable users to create detailed financial models, perform comparative analysis, and track key performance metrics.

Market Expectations

Financial professionals use Bloomberg to stay informed about market expectations and sentiment. The platform aggregates market forecasts, including earnings estimates, revenue projections, and economic indicators, allowing users to assess consensus expectations and potential market trends. Bloomberg’s real-time updates and customizable alerts enable users to monitor shifts in market sentiment and adjust investment strategies accordingly.

Earnings Season Preparation

During earnings seasons, Bloomberg becomes an essential tool for financial professionals preparing for corporate earnings releases. The platform’s earnings analysis tools help users interpret financial results, identify underlying trends, and make informed decisions based on earnings reports.

Bloomberg and Tests of Market Efficiency

Academic works

Researchers and scholars leverage Bloomberg’s vast dataset and analytics tools to conduct empirical studies on market behavior, information dissemination, and the efficiency of asset pricing models. By analyzing historical market data and real-time information flow, academics assess the degree to which markets reflect all available information and efficiently incorporate new information into asset prices.

Information Dissemination

One key aspect of market efficiency is the speed and accuracy of information dissemination. Bloomberg facilitates the rapid dissemination of market news, economic data, and corporate announcements to a global audience of financial professionals. Researchers use Bloomberg to study how quickly information is incorporated into asset prices and whether markets efficiently reflect public and private information.

Pros and Cons

Given its history and operations in widely known industries and markets, we certainly need to know the pros and cons of Bloomberg.

Bloomberg provides users with access to extensive financial data and analytics, enabling rigorous empirical studies on market efficiency. Bloomberg’s customizable tools and advanced features facilitate complex analyses and modeling for testing various market efficiency hypotheses. The platform offers real-time updates and historical data, allowing researchers to analyze market behavior over different periods and market conditions.

On the other side, Bloomberg’s subscription costs may limit access to users with limited budgets or academic institutions with constrained resources. The complexity of Bloomberg’s interface and data structure may also present a learning curve for users new to the platform.

Conclusion

Bloomberg’s impact extends across the financial community, serving as a trusted resource for investors, traders, analysts, and corporate professionals worldwide.

Why should I be interested in this post?

According to me, mastering Bloomberg can equip management students with valuable skills and knowledge that are directly applicable to careers in finance, business analysis, and strategic management. It offers a practical way to enhance analytical capabilities, stay updated with industry trends, and build a strong foundation for future professional success.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

   ▶ Louis DETALLE The importance of data in finance

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Earnings per share

Useful resources

Bloomberg

Wikipedia Bloomberg L.P.

Statista Estimated revenue generated by Bloomberg LP worldwide from 2015 to 2022

Bloomberg Generative AI to Become a $1.3 Trillion Market by 2032, Research Finds

Bloomberg Bloomberg Launches Point-in-Time Data Solution that Gives Quants a Competitive Edge

About the author

The article was written in May 2024 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024).

Posted in Contributors | Leave a comment

FactSet

FactSet

Nithisha CHALLA

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024) presents FactSet, which provides financial data, news and analytics for the financial community.

Introduction

FactSet also known as FactSet Research Systems Inc. is a leading provider of financial data and analytics solutions, catering to professionals in the investment industry. Whether you are a financial analyst, portfolio manager, or student of finance, FactSet offers powerful tools and resources to analyze markets, evaluate companies, and make informed investment decisions.

Logo of Factset
Logo of Factset
Source: Factset

History

Founded in 1978 by Howard Wille and Charles Snyder, FactSet began as a startup aiming to revolutionize financial data analysis. The company initially focused on providing financial analysis software for investment professionals, aiming to streamline data processing and analysis in the rapidly evolving financial industry.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, FactSet expanded its product offerings and market presence, catering to a growing demand for sophisticated financial data and analytics solutions. In its journey of growth and expansion, FactSet has made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio and expand its market reach.

In 2007, FactSet acquired Market Metrics, a provider of market research and consulting services for asset managers. In 2015, FactSet acquired Portware LLC, a leading provider of multi-asset trade automation solutions for asset managers and institutional traders. In 2020, FactSet acquired Truvalue Labs, a pioneer in AI-driven environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data and analytics.

From its humble beginnings in the late 1970s to its current status as a global leader in financial data and analytics, FactSet has continually evolved to meet the evolving needs of the investment community.

Key Components of FactSet Research Systems

Earnings Estimates

Earnings estimates refer to predictions made by financial analysts and experts regarding how much profit a company is expected to generate in the future.FactSet gathers and provides these estimates, which are crucial for investors and analysts to assess a company’s potential performance.

According to Factset, 2024, the company’s consensus estimates are aggregated from a wide base of contributors and cover 19,000+ active companies across 90+ countries.

Revenue Projections

Revenue projections indicate how much revenue a company is expected to generate over a specific period. FactSet’s revenue projections are based on industry trends, market conditions, and company-specific factors, providing users with valuable insights into sales performance and revenue drivers.

For example, in June 2024, Factset released an expected revenue projection for S&P 500 companies stating “The blended (companies that reported and the estimation of the companies yet to report)earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q4 2023 is 3.2%. It should be noted that analysts are currently projecting (year-over-year) revenue growth for all four quarters of 2024. For Q1 2024 through Q4 2024, the current estimates for revenue growth are 3.5%, 4.6%, 5.0%, and 5.7%, respectively.”. This helps stakeholders of the respective industry to analyze, project, and invest accordingly.

Forecasts for Key Financial Metrics

In addition to earnings estimates, FactSet offers forecasts for key financial metrics such as revenue growth rates, cash flow projections, and profit margins. These forecasts provide insights into overall financial health and performance metrics, helping users assess business strategies, identify growth opportunities, and make informed investment decisions. By analyzing financial forecasts, users can anticipate market trends and evaluate the potential impact on investment portfolios.

Coverage

FactSet covers a wide range of companies across different industries, from large corporations to smaller businesses. This extensive coverage ensures that users have access to comprehensive financial data and insights.

FactSet provides access to 200+ data items, including 100+ metrics across 18 industries encompassing airlines, banking, insurance, oil/gas, and retail. It leverages estimates that are collected directly from the research reports and flat file feeds of 800+ contributors across 55 countries.

Period

Factset has evolved since its introduction in 1978 and in 2023, Factset has expanded its client base to over 7,900 and increased its user base by 6%, surpassing 189,000 users. Factset with over 45 years of history, facilitates top-down analysis to better assess potential growth and risk as well as future value across industry, sector, index, country, and region.

Frequency

The period and frequency of forecasts on Factset vary based on user needs and market dynamics. FactSet incorporates quarterly and annual financial reports from companies, including earnings releases, revenue figures, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. Users can access real-time updates and forecasts based on two categories that are data frequency and update frequency, where they provide quarterly data frequency and an intraday update frequency.

FactSet also includes on a timely basis event-driven updates such as corporate actions (e.g., mergers, acquisitions, dividends) and regulatory filings (e.g., SEC filings), providing comprehensive coverage of market events impacting investment decisions.

Firms and Financial analysts

According to James Chen (2023à, FactSet is broken down into three business units: one in the United States, one in Europe, and one in Asia-Pacific. The business unit located in the United States provides financial solutions to financial professionals as well as domestic financial institutions. The European and Asia-Pacific business units only service financial professionals in the regions in which each unit operates.

As of 2023, FactSet services over 200,000 users in more than 8,000 companies and organizations. FactSet has 37 offices in 20 countries. The company reports it has had a client retention rate of 95% with 43 years of revenue growth.

Pricing

FactSet’s pricing model varies based on subscription plans and user requirements. Students can explore different pricing tiers to access specific data sets, analytical tools, and premium features tailored to their academic or research needs. Understanding FactSet’s pricing structure is essential for management students evaluating the cost-benefit of utilizing its services for financial analysis and research purposes.

FactSet provides its services for a lower price than some of its competitors because the company uses multiple sources to provide its data, which creates pricing competition between suppliers.

Use of FactSet by the Financial Community

Benchmark for Analysis

FactSet serves as a benchmark for financial analysis, offering a comprehensive suite of tools for analyzing companies, industries, and markets. Management students can use FactSet to perform detailed financial modeling, comparative analysis, and valuation assessments, gaining practical experience in fundamental analysis techniques.

Market Expectations

FactSet provides access to economic data and forecasts that shape market expectations. Users can track indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment figures, and interest rate projections to anticipate broader economic trends.

Earnings Season Preparation

During earnings seasons, by leveraging FactSet’s capabilities, users can navigate earnings announcements with confidence, interpret financial results effectively, and make well-informed investment decisions based on fundamental analysis and market intelligence.

FactSet and Tests of Market Efficiency

Academic works

Academic researchers use FactSet’s extensive database and analytical tools to conduct empirical studies on various topics in finance, economics, and investment management. FactSet’s rich dataset allows researchers to analyze market behavior, asset pricing models, and the impact of economic indicators on financial markets. Researchers use FactSet to assess whether asset prices reflect all available information, conducting event studies and anomaly detection to identify market inefficiencies.

Information Dissemination

Information dissemination refers to the process of distributing financial data, market insights, and analytical reports to users within the investment community using FactSet’s platform. FactSet provides real-time market data on stock prices, indices, commodities, currencies, and other financial instruments. Users can access live updates and monitor market movements as they occur, enabling timely decision-making and risk management.

FactSet disseminates earnings releases, corporate news, and press releases from companies within its coverage universe. Users receive alerts and notifications about important announcements, enabling them to stay informed about company developments and assess potential market impacts.

Pros and Cons

Given its history and operations in so many industries and markets, we certainly need to know the pros and cons of the FactSet.

FactSet provides researchers with access to extensive financial data and analytics, and comprehensive financial data coverage across global markets. FactSet provides a user-friendly interface and intuitive features. It has very well-known powerful tools for financial analysis and investment research.

On the other side, FactSet subscription costs may limit access to users with limited budgets or in academic institutions with constrained resources. The complexity of mastering advanced functionalities may also present a learning curve for users new to the platform.

Conclusion

FactSet impact extends across the financial community, serving as a trusted resource for investors, traders, analysts, and corporate professionals worldwide.

Why should I be interested in this post?

As a management master’s student focusing on finance or strategic analysis, understanding and utilizing financial data platforms like FactSet can greatly enhance your skills and career prospects.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

   ▶ Louis DETALLE The importance of data in finance

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Earnings per share

   ▶ Nithisha CHALLA Bloomberg

Useful resources

FactSet Truvalue Labs Wikipedia FactSet FactSet FactSet Estimates – Consensus FactSet FactSet Annual Report 2023 FactSet Earnings Insight

About the author

The article was written in May 2024 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024).
Posted in Contributors, Financial news | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Solana: Ascendancy of the High-Speed Blockchain 

 Snehasish CHINARA

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains the evolution of high performance blockchain powered cryptocurrency, Solana.

Historical context and background

Solana, a relatively new entrant in the cryptocurrency arena, emerged against the backdrop of an increasingly crowded and competitive landscape in the digital currency space. Founded in 2020 by Anatoly Yakovenko, a former engineer at Qualcomm, Solana sought to address some of the inherent scalability and speed limitations plaguing earlier blockchain platforms like Ethereum. The platform is named after the Solana Beach in California, where Yakovenko often surfed, symbolizing the project’s ambition to ride the waves of innovation and technological advancement.

Unlike many other cryptocurrencies that primarily rely on Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanisms, Solana introduced a novel consensus mechanism known as Proof of History (PoH). This mechanism aims to optimize transaction processing speed by organizing transactions into a series of chronological events, enabling parallel transaction processing, and significantly enhancing scalability. Solana’s emphasis on scalability and throughput has positioned it as a promising platform for decentralized applications (dApps) and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects seeking high-performance blockchain infrastructure. Its innovative approach has garnered attention and support from investors and developers alike, propelling Solana into the spotlight as one of the leading contenders in the cryptocurrency space.

Solana Logo

Source: Google.

Figure 1. Key Dates in Solana History.

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Key features

    Scalability

    Solana is designed to be highly scalable, capable of processing thousands of transactions per second. Its unique consensus mechanism, Proof of History (PoH), combined with a network of nodes running parallel processing, enables Solana to handle a high throughput of transactions efficiently.

    Fast Transaction Speeds

    With its focus on scalability, Solana boasts incredibly fast transaction speeds. Transactions can be confirmed in milliseconds, making it suitable for applications requiring rapid transaction processing, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and high-frequency trading.

    Low Transaction Costs

    Solana aims to keep transaction costs low, even during periods of high network activity. Its efficient use of resources and high throughput allow for cost-effective transactions, making it accessible to users and developers alike.

    Proof of History (PoH)

    Solana’s unique consensus mechanism, PoH, serves as a historical record for the ordering and time-stamping of transactions. By leveraging PoH, Solana achieves high throughput without sacrificing decentralization or security.

    Support for Smart Contracts

    Solana is compatible with smart contracts, allowing developers to build decentralized applications (dApps) and execute programmable transactions on the blockchain. It supports smart contract languages like Rust and Solidity, enabling a wide range of developers to build on the platform.

    Ecosystem and Development Tools

    Solana boasts a growing ecosystem of projects and development tools to support developers in building decentralized applications. Its developer-friendly environment includes tools such as Solana Studio, a web-based IDE for building and deploying smart contracts, and libraries for interacting with the Solana blockchain.

    Interoperability

    Solana is designed to be interoperable with other blockchains and protocols, facilitating seamless communication and asset transfer between different networks. This interoperability opens up possibilities for cross-chain decentralized applications and enhances the overall utility of the Solana ecosystem.

Use cases

    Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)

    Solana provides an efficient infrastructure for minting, trading, and storing NFTs. Artists, creators, and collectors are utilizing Solana-based marketplaces like Solanart to buy and sell digital collectibles, artwork, and virtual assets. Solana’s high throughput enables seamless NFT transactions, while its low fees make it appealing for creators seeking an alternative to Ethereum’s congested network.

    Gaming and Virtual Worlds

    Solana’s high-performance blockchain is well-suited for gaming applications and virtual worlds that require fast transaction processing and scalability. Game developers are leveraging Solana’s infrastructure to create blockchain-based games, in-game assets, and decentralized gaming platforms. Projects like Star Atlas, a space-themed massively multiplayer online game (MMO) built on Solana, demonstrate the platform’s potential to disrupt the gaming industry.

    Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs)

    Solana provides a robust framework for building decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) that enable community governance and decision-making. DAOs on Solana leverage smart contracts to automate voting mechanisms, distribute governance tokens, and execute proposals transparently and efficiently. These DAOs empower communities to collectively manage and govern decentralized protocols, platforms, and resources.

    Tokenization of Real-World Assets

    Solana facilitates the tokenization of real-world assets such as real estate, stocks, and commodities, enabling fractional ownership and increased liquidity. Projects are exploring Solana’s blockchain to tokenize and trade various asset classes, unlocking new investment opportunities and reducing barriers to entry for traditional markets.

Technology and underlying blockchain

At the core of Solana’s architecture is the Proof of History (PoH) consensus mechanism, which orders transactions before they are processed into blocks. This deterministic sequencing allows for parallel transaction processing and enhances overall network efficiency. Additionally, Solana utilizes a Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) consensus algorithm called Tower BFT, which further ensures network security and integrity.

Solana’s blockchain implements a novel data structure known as the “Solana Architecture,” which includes a combination of a single global state, a high-speed networking stack, and a high-performance virtual machine (VM). This architecture enables Solana to achieve impressive transaction throughput, with the capability to process thousands of transactions per second (TPS) and sub-second transaction finality. Furthermore, Solana leverages a unique mechanism called “Turbine” to optimize block propagation and reduce network latency, enhancing the overall scalability and performance of the platform.

The Solana ecosystem also features a built-in decentralized exchange (DEX), supporting seamless token swaps and liquidity provision directly on-chain. Smart contracts on Solana are executed using a high-performance VM called Sealevel, which is designed to efficiently process complex computations while maintaining low transaction costs. Overall, Solana’s technology stack, comprising innovative consensus mechanisms, advanced data structures, and optimized networking protocols, positions it as a leading blockchain platform capable of supporting a wide range of decentralized applications (dApps) and use cases at scale.

Supply of coins

Solana (SOL) operates on a fixed supply model, with a maximum supply of 489,026,837 SOL tokens. Unlike traditional fiat currencies, Solana’s tokenomics are governed by the principles of cryptocurrency protocols. The initial distribution of SOL tokens occurred through a combination of token sales, strategic partnerships, ecosystem incentives, and network validators’ rewards. Notably, Solana employs a deflationary economic model, wherein a portion of transaction fees is burned, reducing the overall token supply over time. This deflationary mechanism is designed to counterbalance any potential inflationary pressures as the network expands, ensuring the long-term sustainability and scarcity of SOL tokens. Additionally, SOL tokens are used to facilitate various functions within the Solana ecosystem, including transaction fees, staking rewards, governance participation, and decentralized application interactions. As Solana continues to grow and gain adoption, the controlled and predictable token supply dynamics play a crucial role in maintaining the network’s integrity and value proposition.

Historical data for Solana

How to get the data?

The Solana (SOL) is a popular cryptocurrency on the market, and historical data for the Solana such as prices and volume traded can be easily downloaded from the internet sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Blockchain.com & CoinMarketCap. For example, you can download data for Solana on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for Solana is SOL-USD).

Figure 2. Solana data

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Historical data for the Solana market prices

The historical data for Solana market prices demonstrates a dynamic evolution marked by significant fluctuations and notable trends since its inception. Initially, SOL experienced modest trading activity and price levels, but as Solana gained recognition for its innovative blockchain architecture and scalability features, its market value began to ascend. Early adopters and investors drove demand for SOL tokens, leading to periods of rapid appreciation interspersed with corrections and consolidation phases. Milestones such as protocol upgrades, partnerships, and successful dApp launches often coincided with significant price movements. Moreover, broader market trends and sentiment towards cryptocurrencies influenced SOL’s price dynamics, contributing to both bullish and bearish cycles over time. Overall, SOL’s price trajectory reflects Solana’s journey from its early stages to becoming a prominent player in the blockchain space, highlighting its potential to revolutionize decentralized applications and digital finance despite the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

Figure 3 below represents the evolution of the price of Solana (SOL) in US dollar over the period April 2020 – December 2023. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 3. Evolution of the Solana (SOL) price

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the Solana (SOL).

Download R file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the Solana (SOL) from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on April, 2020.

Table 1 below represents the top of the data file for the Solana (SOL) downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 1. Top of the data file for the Solana (SOL)

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Download the Python code for USD Coin data

Python script to download Solana (SOL) historical data and save it to an Excel sheet::

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol for Solana Coin

SOL_ticker = “SOL-USD”

# Define the date range for historical data

start_date = “2020-01-01”

end_date = “2022-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance

SOL_data = yf.download(SOL_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame from the downloaded data

doge_df = pd.DataFrame(SOL_data)

# Define the Excel file path

excel_file_path = “SOL_historical_data.xlsx”

# Save the data to an Excel sheet

SOL_df.to_excel(excel_file_path, sheet_name=”SOL_historical_data”)

print(f”Data saved to {excel_file_path}”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download.

Evolution of the Solana (SOL)

Figure 4 below gives the evolution of the Solana (SOL) returns from April, 2020 to December 31, 2023 on a daily basis.

Figure 4. Evolution of the Solana (SOL) returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the Solana (SOL)

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the Solana (SOL). Table 2 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the Solana (SOL):

  • The mean
  • The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
  • The skewness
  • The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 2. Summary statistics for Solana (SOL).

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the Solana (SOL) returns

Historical distribution

Figure 5 represents the historical distribution of the Solana (SOL) daily returns for the period from April, 2020 to December 31, 2023.

Figure 5. Historical Solana (SOL) distribution of the returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from April, 2020 to December 31, 2023.

Figure 6 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the Solana (SOL) daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from April, 2020 to December, 2023.

Figure 6. Gaussian distribution of the Solana (SOL) returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the Solana (SOL) returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the Solana (SOL).

Table 3 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the Solana (SOL):

  • The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
  • The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 3. Risk measures for the Solana (SOL).

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the Solana (SOL) while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the Solana (SOL).

Why should I be interested in this post?

This blog offers an engaging exploration into a cryptocurrency that transcends traditional finance, appealing to a wide audience due to its cultural relevance, investment potential, and vibrant community. Solana’s reputation for high performance in blockchain technology, boasting the capability to process thousands of transactions per second, makes it an appealing option for developers and users seeking efficient transaction processing. Moreover, staying updated on Solana can offer insights into the growth of its ecosystem, including the development of decentralized applications (dApps) and strategic partnerships. For investors, Solana’s increasing popularity and ecosystem growth may signal investment opportunities, making it worthwhile to track news and discussions surrounding the platform. Additionally, Solana’s innovative technical advancements in scalability, consensus mechanisms, and developer tools are of interest to those intrigued by blockchain technology. Engaging with the Solana community provides opportunities for networking and gaining valuable insights into this rapidly expanding ecosystem.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

About cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA How to get crypto data

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

About statistics

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Moments de la distribution

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Mesures de risques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Returns

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for Solana

CoinMarketCap Historical data for Solana

About the author

The article was written in April 2024 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024).
Posted in Contributors | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bitcoin est un rêve, un idéal, un espoir

Bitcoin est un rêve, un idéal, un espoir

Jean-Marie Choffray

Dans cet article, Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY (Professeur Ordinaire Honoraire d’Informatique Décisionnelle à l’Université de Liège, PhD-77, Management Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) introduit son recent article “Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars”.

Personne ne sait précisément ce qu’est Bitcoin (avec « Bvle réseau). Au plan conceptuel, bitcoin (avec « b le jeton) est une chaîne, aussi indestructible que possible, de blocs d’enregistrements, aussi sécurisés que possible. Cette technologie nouvelle est donc un projet en cours dont personne ne peut préjuger l’avenir, quelle que soit la dimension considérée. Bitcoin deviendra ce que la majorité de ses utilisateurs décidera, et surtout aura le courage, d’en faire. Pour Satochi Nakamoto, c’était un rêve. Pour ceux qui travaillent aujourd’hui sur son code, c’est un idéal. Enfin, pour ceux qui l’utiliseront demain, c’est un espoir. L’Histoire de l’Humanité, une autre chaîne de blocs d’enregistrements – à l’évidence, non sécurisés et falsifiables ! – , s’apparente au reflet d’une montée de la Conscience individuelle et collective (cf. « Le phénomène humain » de Pierre Teilhard de Chardin). Bitcoin, c’est L’espoir maintenant (entretien entre Jean-Paul Sartre et Benny Lévy) : « une tension vers la fin, que l’échec, le tragique ne sauraient annuler… La valeur économique de bitcoin serait-elle le prix de la liberté ?

   ▶ Lire l’article Bitcoin est un rêve, un idéal, un espoir

Autres articles sur le blog

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars

A propos de l’auteur

L’article a été rédigé en mars 2024 par Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY (Professeur Ordinaire Honoraire d’Informatique Décisionnelle à l’Université de Liège, PhD-77, Management Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Posted in Contributors, Financial techniques | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Types of Market Consensus

Types of Market Consensus

Nithisha CHALLA

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024) explains what are the market consensus and different forms of into financial sentiments.

Introduction

Market consensus often talked about in financial circles, goes beyond just a collective opinion; it reflects how investors feel and what’s happening in the financial world. This article looks into different types of market consensus: the agreement on prices between buyers and sellers, the insights provided by financial analysts who study companies’ basics and economic indicators, and the views of technical analysts who analyze stock prices. Several things affect market consensus, like how people generally feel about the market, expectations for market changes, and the actions of important players like central banks.

Understanding the various forms of market consensus is essential for investors and traders navigating the complex world of finance. These collective opinions shape market trends and impact investment decisions.

Price Consensus

One of the most visible forms of market consensus is reflected in asset prices. The principle of supply and demand drives prices, with consensus emerging as traders and investors assess the value of an asset based on various factors such as economic indicators, company performance, and geopolitical events. As these factors change and influence perceptions, they contribute to the evolving consensus reflected in asset prices.

Example: In 2020, Tesla’s stock experienced a tremendous surge as market consensus shifted positively around electric vehicles and renewable energy. Investors believed in the company’s potential for growth, leading to a significant increase in Tesla’s stock price.

Market consensus by financial analysts

Consensus on revenues and earnings

Earnings consensus revolves around the expected future earnings of a company. Analysts and financial experts often provide earnings estimates, and market consensus forms around these forecasts. Deviations from these expectations can lead to significant price movements as investors reassess the company’s performance and prospects. This dynamic interaction between earnings forecasts and market reactions underscores the importance of consensus expectations in shaping investor sentiment and market behavior.

Example: Apple’s quarterly earnings announcements are highly anticipated by the market. If Apple reports earnings that exceed analysts’ consensus estimates, it can lead to a surge in its stock price, reflecting the positive earnings consensus.

Consensus on economic indicators

Economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and unemployment figures, shape the macroeconomic consensus. Governments, central banks, and international organizations routinely release data that analysts and investors leverage to assess the broader economic landscape. Market responses frequently track deviations from consensus forecasts related to these indicators. When actual economic data diverges from expectations, it can trigger significant market movements as investors adjust their outlook on economic conditions and potential policy responses.

Example: During the global financial crisis of 2008, there was a consensus among economists that the world economy was entering a recession. This consensus influenced investor behavior, leading to widespread selling in equity markets and a shift towards safer assets.

Market consensus by technical analysts

Market consensus by technical analysts revolves around interpreting stock price movements and patterns to forecast future market trends. Technical analysts use charts and indicators to identify potential buying or selling opportunities based on historical price data. By analyzing patterns such as support and resistance levels, moving averages, and trading volumes, technical analysts contribute insights into market sentiment and potential price directions. This approach to market consensus complements fundamental analysis and provides a different perspective on investor behavior and sentiment. Breaking through a significant resistance level might lead to a bullish consensus; similarly, breaking through a significant support level might lead to a bearish consensus.

Factors influencing the market consensus

Size of the company and coverage by financial analysts

The size of a company and how many analysts are covering it also influence the stock market consensus. If only a handful of analysts are assigned to the stock, the market consensus estimates are more likely to vary from actual results.

Market sentiment

The sentiment of market participants plays a crucial role in shaping market consensus. Investor sentiment can be bullish or bearish, influenced by factors like news, social media, and market events. Contrarian investors often excel by taking positions opposite to prevailing sentiment, capitalizing on opportunities arising from market overreactions and sentiment shifts. Understanding and analyzing market sentiment is essential for gauging potential market directions and identifying contrarian investment opportunities.

Example: The GameStop saga in early 2021 is a notable example of sentiment consensus. Retail investors on social media forums collectively drove up the stock price of GameStop, challenging traditional market dynamics and catching institutional investors off guard.

Volatility expectations

Volatility expectations, measured by metrics like the VIX (Volatility Index), represent a form of consensus about future market stability. Traders and investors use volatility as an indicator of market risk, and consensus around heightened volatility can lead to defensive strategies, such as increased hedging or reduced risk exposure. Understanding and interpreting volatility consensus is essential for adapting investment strategies to prevailing market conditions and risk perceptions.

Example: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a consensus on increased market volatility. The VIX (Volatility Index) surged as investors anticipated heightened uncertainty, prompting shifts in investment strategies to account for the expected market fluctuations.

Policy Consensus

Central bank policies, government regulations, and fiscal measures contribute to policy consensus. Market participants closely monitor statements and decisions made by central banks and governments, forming expectations about interest rates, monetary policy, and regulatory changes. Any surprises in these areas can lead to market volatility.

Example: The announcement of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policies during the 2008 financial crisis influenced market consensus. The expectation of increased liquidity and lower interest rates contributed to a rally in stock markets.

Technological Consensus

Technological consensus refers to the collective agreement or perception within the technology sector regarding emerging trends, innovations, or the adoption of specific technologies. Industry experts, analysts, and stakeholders contribute to this consensus through assessments of technology developments, market dynamics, and consumer behavior. Consensus within technology influences investment decisions, product development strategies, and market forecasts. Understanding technological consensus is crucial for businesses and investors seeking to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape of technology-driven industries.

Example: The rise of FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) in the last decade reflects a technological consensus. Investors collectively believed in the transformative power of these technology giants, contributing to their substantial market capitalizations.

Conclusion

Market consensus, when explored through the lens of data and statistics, transforms from a theoretical concept to a tangible and actionable tool. Whether you’re an investor, a business leader, or an analyst, integrating statistical insights into your understanding of market consensus adds a layer of precision to decision-making. In the dynamic world of finance, where every percentage point matters, harnessing the power of market consensus with a data-driven approach ensures a more informed and strategic navigation of financial waters.

Why should I be interested in this post?

In essence, this article provides a holistic and data-driven perspective on market consensus, catering to the interests of investors, business professionals, and anyone seeking a nuanced understanding of how collective sentiments shape the financial landscape. Whether you’re actively involved in financial decision-making or simply intrigued by the dynamics of the market, this article offers valuable insights that bridge theory and real-world applications.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

   ▶ Louis DETALLE The importance of data in finance

Useful resources

CNN Fear & Greed Index: What emotion is driving the market now?

Market consensus What is market consensus?

Faster Capital Navigating Markets: The Power of Market Analysis and Consensus Estimates

About the author

The article was written in April 2024 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024).
Posted in Contributors, Financial techniques | Tagged | Leave a comment

Job description – Financial analysts

Job description – Financial analysts

Nithisha CHALLA

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024) explains the job of financial analysts and their contributions to the investment community.

Introduction

Financial analysts serve as the backbone of the finance industry, providing critical insights and analysis to support investment decisions. Did you know that the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US projected a 6% growth in employment of financial analysts from 2020 to 2030, faster than the average for all occupations? According to a survey by the CFA Institute (November 2021), most financial analysts believe that their role is becoming increasingly important in today’s complex financial landscape.

This article explores the multifaceted role of financial analysts, with a particular focus on their responsibilities and contributions within both the buy-side and sell-side sectors of the financial industry. Buy-side analysts work for entities that have money to invest, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and high-net-worth individuals. Sell-side analysts work for brokerage firms, investment banks, and other entities that sell investment services. These analysts conduct research and analysis on companies and industries to publish investment recommendations for the firm’s clients and the general investing public.

What Does a Financial Analyst Do?

Financial analysts analyze a firm’s past financial data to spot trends and assess risks, which helps them predict outcomes for business decisions, identify sale or purchase opportunities, and make investment recommendations. To that end, a financial analyst may need to work with different types of data such as company financial statements, the performance of investments such as stocks and bonds, industry research, macroeconomic data, and more, depending upon the specific role they play within the organization.

Buy-Side Financial Analysts: Crafting Investment Strategies

Buy-side analysts work for entities that have money to invest, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and high-net-worth individuals. The job of a financial analyst is important as these financial institutions manage a lot of money. For example, the global assets under management (AUM) of hedge funds amounted to approximately $3.6 trillion in 2020 (Gitnux, December 16, 2023). These analysts perform research and analysis to make direct investment decisions on behalf of their firm’s money. Their primary objective is to identify and capitalize on lucrative investment opportunities that align with their client’s objectives and risk profiles.

Role and responsibilities

Buy-side financial analysts are instrumental in evaluating and recommending alternative investment opportunities to their clients. More and more, they take into consideration the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors that are important in their investment decision-making process.

Examples of companies employing Buy-Side Financial Analysts

An investment manager at BlackRock specializes in infrastructure investments and identifies Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (NYSE: BIP) as a promising opportunity for long-term growth and income generation. BlackRock’s investment in Brookfield Infrastructure Partners helps diversify its clients’ portfolios and provides stable returns over time.

Sell-Side Financial Analysts: Providing Market Insights and Advisory Services

Did you know that the global investment banking revenue reached $124.5 billion in 2020, driven by strong performance in equity underwriting and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) advisory? Sell-side financial analysts work for brokerage firms, investment banks, and financial advisory companies. Their role revolves around providing research and advisory services to institutional and retail investors, as well as corporate clients.

Role and responsibilities

A survey by the Brunswick group found that institutional investors believe that the quality of sell-side research reports has improved over the past five years. Sell-side financial analysts play a crucial role in providing timely and insightful research reports to help clients make informed investment decisions.

Examples of companies employing Sell-Side Financial Analysts:

  • A sell-side analyst at Goldman Sachs publishes a research report on Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), recommending a “buy” rating based on its dominant position in e-commerce and cloud computing, as well as its consistent revenue growth. This recommendation attracts significant investor interest and contributes to a surge in Amazon’s stock price.
  • An equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan advises Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) on strategic options for expanding its autonomous driving technology division, conducting industry analysis and financial modeling to support the recommendations. Alphabet Inc. leverages J.P. Morgan’s expertise to develop a comprehensive growth strategy for its autonomous driving business.
  • A sell-side analyst at Vanguard conducts extensive research on emerging technology companies and recommends investing in Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), recognizing its leadership in electric vehicles and sustainable energy solutions. This recommendation leads to a significant increase in Tesla’s stock price, generating substantial returns for Vanguard’s clients.

Financial analysts play a pivotal role in shaping investment strategies, providing market insights, and facilitating financial transactions. Whether operating on the buy-side or sell-side, these professionals leverage their analytical expertise and industry knowledge to navigate the complexities of the financial markets. By offering investment recommendations, conducting research, and providing advisory services, financial analysts contribute significantly to the pursuit of financial prosperity and wealth creation.

Skills and Qualifications

Now given the job and the daily environment they have to deal with there are certain skills a financial analyst would need to have. Soft skills such as Analytical Thinking, Communication Skills, Attention to Detail, and Time Management hard skills such as Technology Skills, Quantitative Skills, Financial Analysis, and Industry Knowledge are demanded.

When it comes to the career path of an analyst, requires them to stay updated on industry developments, regulations, and best practices. From various analyses and surveys, we could say that many financial analysts hold a bachelor’s degree in finance, accounting, economics, or a related field. Pursuing a master’s degree in finance, business administration (MBA), or a specialized finance program can provide additional knowledge and credentials.

Obtaining certifications such as the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation is common in the financial industry. The CFA program covers a broad range of topics including investment analysis, portfolio management, and ethics, and is highly regarded in the field. Apart from the theoretical knowledge gaining practical experience through internships or entry-level positions at financial institutions, investment firms, or corporate finance departments is essential for building foundational skills and industry knowledge.

  • The Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation is highly valued in the buy-side industry. Buy-side financial analysts need to possess strong data analysis skills to extract actionable insights from large datasets and alternative data sources. They play a crucial role in developing and implementing these customized investment strategies.
  • Sell-side financial analysts need to possess strong academic credentials and technical skills to excel in their roles. They believe that soft skills such as communication and relationship-building are essential for success in their roles. Sell-side financial analysts need to effectively communicate their research findings and build rapport with clients to gain their trust and confidence.

Remuneration

According to a report by Bloomberg, the average compensation for equity research analysts at investment banks in the United States ranged from $200,000 to $600,000 in 2020, depending on their level of experience and performance. Sell-side financial analysts are well-compensated for their expertise in analyzing and recommending investment opportunities to clients.

Why should I be interested in this post?

In essence, this article provides a perspective on the job of financial analysts. For a student who would like to work in finance, it is important to know about the job of a financial analyst as it relates to both the corporate world and financial markets.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

   ▶ Louis DETALLE The importance of data in finance

   ▶ Louis DETALLE Bloomberg

Useful resources

Forbes Financial Analyst Job Description

Gitnux Must-Know Hedge Fund Statistics

CFA Survey of CFA Institute members on latest ESG matters

Brunswickgroup About the Brunswick Digital Investor Survey

Market consensus What is market consensus?

Faster Capital Navigating Markets: The Power of Market Analysis and Consensus Estimates

About the author

The article was written in April 2024 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024).

Posted in Contributors, Finance jobs | Leave a comment

Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES)

Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES)

Nithisha CHALLA

In this article, Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024) presents Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES), which provides market consensus for the financial community.

Introduction

In the fast-paced world of finance, the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System, commonly known as IBES (often written as “I/B/E/S.”), stands as a linchpin in providing investors, analysts, and financial professionals with reliable forecasts and estimates.

IBES, with its roots in comprehensive data aggregation, takes center stage in providing a panoramic view of financial analysts’ estimates and forecasts. IBES acts as a centralized repository of earnings estimates, revenue projections, and other key financial metrics, serving as a vital resource for investors seeking actionable insights.

History

IBES was created in 1976 by the investment research firm, Lynch, Jones & Ryan (LJR). It was developed to address the need for a centralized system to collect and distribute earnings estimates from brokerage analysts. The database offers historical data from its inception and extends internationally from 1987. Over the years, IBES went through several ownership changes. In 1988, LJR was acquired by Primark Corporation. Primark Corporation later merged with Thomson Financial Services in 1990, and IBES became part of Thomson Financial. Thomson Financial subsequently merged with Reuters Group in 2008 to form Thomson Reuters. Thus, IBES became a part of Thomson Reuters. Then Thomson Reuters was acquired by private equity firm Blackstone Group and rebranded as Refinitiv in 2018. Refinitiv was later acquired by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) in 2020. Therefore, IBES is currently owned by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) through its subsidiary, Refinitiv.

Key Components of IBES

Earnings Estimates

IBES compiles earnings estimates from a multitude of financial analysts, providing a consensus view on the expected earnings of a company. As of the latest data, it aggregates forecasts from over 16,000 analysts worldwide, providing a robust consensus on expected earnings for companies across the globe.

Revenue Projections

Beyond earnings, IBES includes revenue projections, offering a comprehensive view of a company’s expected top-line growth. Analysts’ forecasts are aggregated to provide a consensus estimate, aiding investors in gauging revenue expectations.

Forecasts for Key Financial Metrics

IBES extends beyond earnings and revenue, encompassing a spectrum of financial metrics. This includes estimates for operating margins, cash flows, and other key indicators, providing a holistic view of analysts’ expectations. The sheer volume of data—covering over 18,000 companies—ensures a comprehensive snapshot of financial expectations.

Coverage

There are certain types of coverage when we are talking about data coverage such as the Number of Companies Covered, geographic Coverage, Market Capitalization Coverage, Industry Coverage, Depth of Coverage, and Historical Coverage.

According to LSEG data analytics, I/B/E/S Estimates data is displayed at the company level, screened with rigorous quality control methods across more than 23,400 active companies in more than 90 countries, and sourced from over 19,000 analysts.

Estimates Data from over 950 firms contribute data to I/B/E/S, from the largest global houses to regional and local brokers, with U.S. data back to 1976 and international data back to 1987.

Period

IBES has evolved since its introduction in 1976 and includes international data from 1987. I/B/E/S Global Aggregates, with over 30 years of history, facilitates top-down analysis to better assess potential growth and risk as well as future value across industry, sector, index, country, and region.

Frequency

Initially focusing on annual earnings estimates, the database subsequently broadened to encompass quarterly earnings forecasts.

Firms and Financial analysts

IBES covers a wide range of firms across different industries, sectors, and regions. This includes companies listed on major stock exchanges in numerous countries and markets around the world. 950+ contributors, across 90+ in developed and emerging markets, totaling over 19,000 individual analysts – the most in the industry. Unmatchable history across more than 60,000 companies back to 1976 for North America, 1987 for other markets.

Pricing

The specific pricing for accessing I/B/E/S data is not explicitly mentioned on the IBES website and you have to make a request through the LSEG website which manages IBES. The cost likely varies based on the package and offerings selected, which can include different data sets, access methods, and service frequencies. For detailed pricing information, it’s recommended to directly contact LSEG or the respective service providers you’re interested in, as they can provide more precise details based on your specific requirements and the scale of your intended use.

For academic and non-commercial research purposes, access might be available through institutional subscriptions with specific terms of use, as seen with Aalto University’s subscription financed by the Aalto University Data Hub for its users. This indicates that the availability and cost of I/B/E/S data may vary significantly based on the type of use and the access platform. For precise pricing and package options, directly contacting the service providers is the best approach.

Use of IBES by the Financial Community

Benchmark for Analysis

IBES serves as a benchmark for investors and analysts, quantifying market reactions, it dives into the numbers behind market reactions. According to Faster Capital, studies reveal that stocks experiencing positive earnings surprises, surpassing IBES estimates, tend to outperform the market. These numerical insights underscore the practical implications of aligning investment decisions with IBES consensus.

Market Expectations

Analysts and fund managers utilize IBES to gauge market expectations for specific companies. Understanding consensus estimates aids in forming investment strategies aligned with prevailing market sentiments.

Earnings Season Preparation

During earnings seasons, IBES becomes a critical tool for investors preparing for companies’ financial releases. It provides a consolidated view of analysts’ forecasts, helping investors assess potential surprises or disappointments.

IBES and Tests of Market Efficiency

Academic works

The data was subsequently used as the basis for articles in academic finance journals attempting to demonstrate that changes in consensus earnings estimates could identify opportunities to capture excess returns in subsequent periods.

Information Dissemination

IBES plays a pivotal role in disseminating timely information. As estimates are constantly updated based on new information, IBES ensures that market participants have access to the latest insights, contributing to market efficiency.

Pros and Cons

Given its history and operations in huge industries and markets, we certainly need to know the pros and cons of the IBES estimates. In terms of accuracy metrics, IBES relies on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. Statistical metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), offer a quantitative evaluation of the system’s precision.

Conclusion

IBES, when viewed through a data-driven lens, transforms into more than a system and becomes a useful tool for decision-makers navigating the intricacies of financial markets.

Why should I be interested in this post?

In essence, this article discovers how the global data powerhouse, backed by impactful statistics, empowers investors, providing a data-driven lens into market expectations and offering actionable insights for informed decision-making in the dynamic world of finance.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Aamey MEHTA Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

   ▶ Louis DETALLE The importance of data in finance

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Earnings per share

Useful resources

London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) I/B/E/S Estimates

Wikipedia Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System

Market consensus What is market consensus?

Faster Capital Navigating Markets: The Power of Market Analysis and Consensus Estimates

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Nithisha CHALLA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management (MiM), 2021-2024).
Posted in Contributors, Financial news, Financial techniques | Tagged , | Leave a comment

My Experience as an Investment Intern at Eurazeo

My Experience as an Investment Intern at Eurazeo

Dante Marramiero

In this article, Dante MARRAMIERO (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy and Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2023) presents its professional experience in Euazeo, a European leading Private Equity based in Paris.

About Eurazeo

Eurazeo stands as a prominent European firm within the world of alternative investments, boasting a diversified portfolio within various investment strategies, including private debt, real Estate, venture, growth, small-mid buyout, and mid-large buyouts. Eurazeo was initially the family office of the Lazard Freres family, but in 2018 decided to merge with Idinvest in order to start fundraising capital from third parties. Following 2018, Eurazeo’s strategy has always been to reduce the balance sheet investments and to increase the third-party capital investments.

Logo of the company.
Logo of  Eurazeo
Source: the company.

Internship Overview

During my time as an Investment Intern at Eurazeo from January 2023 to June 2023, I had the privilege to immerse myself in the intricacies of private equity and alternative investments. My internship included a range of responsibilities aimed at supporting Eurazeo’s investment initiatives. My department was “Direct Transactions” and during my internship, I participated actively in three different activities:

Syndication of Co-Investment Opportunities

I actively participated in the syndication process of four co-investment opportunities across various investment strategies including private debt, growth, and mid-large buyout. This involved conducting comprehensive due diligence, financial analysis, and market research to assess the viability and potential returns of each opportunity. Together, these co-investment opportunities accounted for approximately €750 million in total investment value, underscoring Eurazeo’s commitment to strategic partnerships and collaborative investment initiatives. Co-investments, theoretically speaking can be cataloged under direct transactions as SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) are created specifically for one single transaction and you are not making the investment for the limited partners but you are making it with the LPs (Limited Partners).

Strategic SPV Structures Analysis

I was tasked with examining strategic Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) structures solutions for potential investment opportunities. This entailed analyzing, comparing, and developing alternative fundraising structures such as Collateral Fund Obligation and Rated Feeder Fund, focusing on optimizing capital deployment and mitigating risk. The main reason why we were evaluating new financial structures was to attract a category investor that, at the time, was not willing to invest in our funds: American insurance companies. 2023 has been generically speaking a rough year for fundraising capital and for this reason, we decided to implement this kind of solution. A collateral fund obligation is a structure composed by certified debt and equity; this structure will invest in different funds (all managed by Eurazeo) and will have the advantage of using the leverage raised as certified debt to enhance the return on the investment and the Cash on Cash. Therefore, by evaluating various SPV structures, we aimed to enhance our flexibility in structuring investments and optimizing returns for our investors, by using the right amount of leverage.

Evaluation of Secondary Transactions Advisors

I had the opportunity to participate in two competitive selection processes for secondary transaction advisors, tasked with choosing the financial advisor to support us in executing a single asset continuation vehicle. The evaluation process included analyzing and comparing proposed solutions, assessing current market conditions, and evaluating alignment with Eurazeo’s investment strategy and objectives.

Furthermore, this project included evaluation and due diligence, intending to identify strategic partners capable of delivering value-added solutions and maximizing returns for our investors. Single asset continuation vehicles are specialized structures tailored for investments held within the portfolio of a current fund of the firm. These investments require divestment as limited partners seek liquidity. However, recognizing the potential upside, the firm decides to establish these vehicles.

What did I learn during this experience?

My internship at Eurazeo provided invaluable opportunities for skills and knowledge development across various areas:

  • Financial Analysis: I honed my skills in financial modeling, valuation techniques, and investment analysis through hands-on experience with real-world investment opportunities.
  • Due Diligence: I gained practical insights into the due diligence process, including a thorough examination of financial statements, market trends, and competitive landscapes.
  • Strategic Thinking: I developed a strategic mindset by evaluating investment opportunities within the broader context of Eurazeo’s investment thesis and long-term objectives.
  • Communication and Collaboration: I enhanced my communication and collaboration skills through interaction with cross-functional teams and external stakeholders, fostering effective teamwork and decision-making.

This internship therefore offered a unique opportunity to gain firsthand experience in the dynamic and fast-paced world of private equity and alternative investments. As an aspiring finance professional, this experience has equipped me with the skills, knowledge, and insights necessary to thrive in the competitive landscape of the investment industry. Moreover, it has reaffirmed my passion for finance and deepened my understanding of the critical role played by alternative investment firms in driving economic growth and value creation.

As a newcomer to the finance industry, I had not anticipated the level of intricacy and competition inherent within the environment of Eurazeo. The depth of analysis, the meticulous attention to detail, and the relentless pursuit of excellence underscored the caliber of professionals operating within the firm. Despite the initial surprise, I found myself invigorated by the intellectual rigor and spirited competition that permeated every facet of Eurazeo’s operations.

Central to my experience at Eurazeo was the discovery of a challenging yet remarkably cohesive team—a team that demanded nothing short of excellence yet fostered an environment of camaraderie and mutual support. The intensity of our collaborative efforts forged bonds that transcended professional boundaries, culminating in a shared sense of purpose and accomplishment. Indeed, within the crucible of challenging assignments and tight deadlines, I discovered that the true measure of an internship lies not merely in the tasks accomplished but, in the relationships, forged and the personal growth attained.

Long But Fulfilling Working Hours

While the demands of the internship necessitated long hours and unwavering dedication, I found solace in the gratifying pursuit of knowledge and skill refinement. On average, my workday extended until around 10:30 in the evening, with occasional instances requiring weekend office visits. Despite the rigors of the schedule, the sense of fulfilment derived from contributing to meaningful projects and engaging with industry experts mitigated the challenges posed by extended working hours.

A game-changing internship

My internship at Eurazeo stands as a transformative chapter in my professional journey, characterized by unexpected challenges, profound growth, and enduring camaraderie. Through immersion in the fast-paced realm of private equity, I have gained invaluable insights, honed essential skills, and cultivated enduring relationships that will undoubtedly shape my future endeavours. As I reflect on my time at Eurazeo, I am reminded that true growth emerges from embracing adversity, fostering meaningful connections, and steadfastly pursuing excellence—lessons that will continue to guide me on the path toward personal and professional fulfillment.

Why should I be interested in this post?

I aspire that this experience might aid other students intrigued by Private Equity in gaining deeper insights into the internal dynamics and the range of exposure one can encounter within a private equity firm. Often, when students hear about private equity, their minds jump straight to financial analysis and modeling, overlooking the broader scope. My aim is for this article to spark curiosity among students about this sector, encouraging them to explore the private equity market further.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Chloé ANIFRANI My experience as an Asset Management Sales Assistant for Amplegest

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Classic brain teasers from real-life interviews

   ▶ Matisse FOY Key participants in the Private Equity ecosystem

   ▶ Lilian BALLOIS Discovering Private Equity: Behind the Scenes of Fund Strategies

Useful resources

Eurazeo

Bain Bain private Equity Report 2023

About the author

The article was written in April 2024 by Dante MARRAMIERO (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy and Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2023)

Posted in Contributors, Professional experiences | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Doge Coin: Unraveling the Phenomenon of the Internet’s Favourite Cryptocurrency

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains the evolution of the most popular memecoin, Dogecoin.

 Snehasish CHINARA

Historical context and background

Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that started as a joke, quickly evolved into a significant player in the world of digital assets. Created in December 2013 by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, Dogecoin was initially intended to satirize the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies at the time. The coin’s logo features the Shiba Inu dog from the “Doge” meme, which was immensely popular on the internet during that period. Despite its humorous origins, Dogecoin gained traction due to its welcoming and inclusive community, as well as its low transaction fees and fast confirmation times.

The early days of Dogecoin saw rapid adoption and a vibrant online community rallying around the coin. It gained attention for its philanthropic efforts, including fundraising campaigns to sponsor charity events and support causes such as building water wells in developing countries and sponsoring Olympic athletes. These initiatives helped distinguish Dogecoin from other cryptocurrencies and fostered a sense of community among its users.

Over time, Dogecoin’s popularity continued to grow, fueled in part by endorsements from notable figures such as Elon Musk, who frequently tweeted about the coin, further amplifying its visibility. Despite facing occasional security issues and challenges, Dogecoin has persevered, becoming one of the most recognized and traded cryptocurrencies in the market. Its unique blend of humor, community spirit, and accessibility has endeared it to a wide range of users, making it a significant player in the ever-expanding crypto landscape.

Doge Coin Logo

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Figure 1. Key Dates in Doge Coin History

Source: Yahoo! Finance .

Key features

    Decentralization

    Like most cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin operates on a decentralized network, meaning it is not controlled by any single entity or organization. Transactions are recorded on a public ledger known as the blockchain, which is maintained by a network of nodes.

    Scrypt Algorithm

    Dogecoin uses the Scrypt algorithm for its proof-of-work consensus mechanism, which is less energy-intensive compared to Bitcoin’s SHA-256 algorithm. This allows for greater accessibility to mining for individuals with standard computer hardware.

    Fast Transactions

    Dogecoin boasts relatively fast transaction times, with blocks being mined approximately every minute. This makes it suitable for quick and efficient transfers of value.

    Low Transaction Fees

    Transaction fees on the Dogecoin network are typically minimal, making it cost-effective for transferring even small amounts of value.

    Meme Culture

    Dogecoin’s branding and marketing heavily leverage internet meme culture, particularly the “Doge” meme featuring the Shiba Inu dog. This playful and approachable branding sets Dogecoin apart from other cryptocurrencies and contributes to its widespread appeal.

Use cases

    Tipping

    Dogecoin gained popularity early on for its use as a tipping currency on social media platforms like Reddit and Twitter. Users can easily send small amounts of Dogecoin to content creators or other users as a form of appreciation.

    Charitable Donations

    The Dogecoin community has a history of supporting charitable causes and disaster relief efforts. Dogecoin has been used to raise funds for various initiatives, including sponsoring athletes, funding clean water projects, and aiding during natural disasters.

    E-commerce

    Some online merchants and retailers accept Dogecoin as a form of payment for goods and services. This includes businesses ranging from small independent shops to larger e-commerce platforms.

    Micropayments

    Dogecoin’s low transaction fees and fast confirmation times make it suitable for micropayments, allowing users to easily transfer small amounts of value online.

    Community Engagement

    Dogecoin continues to serve as a vehicle for community engagement and participation. Its lighthearted and inclusive nature fosters a sense of camaraderie among its users, who often come together for events, fundraisers, and online discussions.

    Experimental Projects

    Developers and enthusiasts sometimes use Dogecoin for experimental projects or to explore new applications of blockchain technology. These projects can range from art and gaming to decentralized finance (DeFi) experiments.

Technology and underlying blockchain

Dogecoin operates on a blockchain-based technology similar to Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies. It employs a decentralized peer-to-peer network that relies on nodes spread across the globe to validate and record transactions. Dogecoin’s blockchain uses the Scrypt hashing algorithm, which was initially designed to facilitate quicker confirmation times compared to Bitcoin’s SHA-256 algorithm. This choice of algorithm allows for a more accessible mining process, enabling individuals with standard computer hardware to participate in securing the network and earning rewards. Transactions on the Dogecoin network are grouped into blocks, which are then added to the blockchain through a process known as mining. Miners compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles, and the first miner to solve a puzzle validates the transactions in a block and adds it to the blockchain. Dogecoin’s block time is approximately one minute, resulting in faster transaction confirmations compared to Bitcoin’s ten-minute block time. Additionally, Dogecoin originally had a limitless supply, with a fixed reward of 10,000 DOGE per block; however, this changed in 2014 to an inflationary model, where a fixed number of coins are added to the supply each year. This combination of technology and economic design contributes to Dogecoin’s unique characteristics and its appeal within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Supply of coins

Dogecoin’s supply dynamics are distinctive within the cryptocurrency landscape. Initially launched with no hard cap on its total supply, Dogecoin features an inflationary issuance model designed to maintain a steady influx of coins into the market. Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, Dogecoin’s issuance rate started at 5 billion coins per year and gradually decreases over time. This inflationary nature ensures a continuous supply of Dogecoin, theoretically allowing for ongoing miner rewards and a sustained incentive for network participation. However, it’s worth noting that while the supply of Dogecoin is technically infinite, the rate of new coin creation diminishes over time, resulting in a decreasing inflation rate and a more stable supply trajectory. This unique supply mechanism distinguishes Dogecoin from many other cryptocurrencies and can influence its long-term economic dynamics and utility as a medium of exchange or store of value.

Historical data for Doge Coin

How to get the data?

The Doge Coin is popular cryptocurrency on the market, and historical data for the Doge Coin such as prices and volume traded can be easily downloaded from the internet sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Blockchain.com & CoinMarketCap. For example, you can download data for Doge Coin on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for Doge Coin is Doge-USD).

Figure 2. Doge Coin data

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Historical data for the Doge Coin market prices

Since its inception in 2013, Dogecoin has experienced notable price fluctuations, driven by a combination of factors including market speculation, community engagement, and broader trends in the digital asset space. Initially launched as a joke currency, Dogecoin’s price remained relatively stable for several years, trading at fractions of a cent. However, its price surged dramatically in early 2021, fueled by social media hype and celebrity endorsements, reaching all-time highs of over 70 cents per coin. This unprecedented rally brought Dogecoin into the spotlight, attracting widespread attention from investors and media outlets. Despite subsequent price corrections, Dogecoin has maintained a prominent position in the cryptocurrency market, with its price influenced by various factors including Elon Musk’s tweets, meme culture, and broader market sentiment. Overall, the historical price evolution of Dogecoin exemplifies the volatile and dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the interplay between community enthusiasm, market speculation, and broader industry trends.

Figure 3 below represents the evolution of the price of Doge Coin in US dollar over the period November 2018 – December 2022. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 3. Evolution of the Doge Coin price

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the Doge Coin.

Download R file

Data file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the Doge Coin from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on October, 2018.

Table 1 below represents the top of the data file for the Doge Coin downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 1. Top of the data file for the DOGE Coin

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Download the Python code for USD Coin data

Python script to download Doge historical data and save it to an Excel sheet::

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol for Doge Coin

doge_ticker = “DOGE-USD”

# Define the date range for historical data

start_date = “2020-01-01”

end_date = “2022-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance

doge_data = yf.download(doge_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame from the downloaded data

doge_df = pd.DataFrame(doge_data)

# Define the Excel file path

excel_file_path = “DOGE_historical_data.xlsx”

# Save the data to an Excel sheet

doge_df.to_excel(excel_file_path, sheet_name=”DOGE_historical_data”)

print(f”Data saved to {excel_file_path}”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download

Evolution of the Doge Coin

Figure 4 below gives the evolution of the Doge Coin on a daily basis.

Figure 4. Evolution of the DOGE Coin Figure 5 below gives the evolution of the Doge Coin returns from November, 2018 to December 31, 2022 on a daily basis.

Figure 5. Evolution of the Doge Coin returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the Doge Coin

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the Doge Coin. Table 2 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the Doge Coin:

  • The mean
  • The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
  • The skewness
  • The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 2. Summary statistics for Doge Coin.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the Doge Coin returns

Figure 6 represents the historical distribution of the Doge Coin daily returns for the period from November, 2018 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 6. Historical Doge Coin distribution of the returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from October, 2018 to December 31, 2022. Figure 7 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the Ethereum daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from October, 2018 to December, 2022.

Figure 9. Gaussian distribution of the Doge Coin returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the Doge Coin returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the Doge Coin.

Table 3 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the Doge Coin:

  • The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
  • The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 3. Risk measures for the Doge Coin.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the XRP while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the Doge Coin.

Why should I be interested in this post?

This blog offers an engaging exploration into a cryptocurrency that transcends traditional finance, appealing to a wide audience due to its cultural relevance, investment potential, and vibrant community. From its origins as a meme coin to its remarkable price movements, understanding Dogecoin’s dynamics provides valuable insights into both the cryptocurrency market and internet culture. Delving into its technological underpinnings, community engagement, and market trends offers a concise yet comprehensive overview of Dogecoin’s significance in the evolving landscape of digital currencies.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

About cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA How to get crypto data

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Youssef EL QAMCAOUI Decentralised Financing

   ▶ Hugo MEYER The regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

About statistics

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Moments de la distribution

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Mesures de risques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Returns

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for Doge Coin

CoinMarketCap Historical data for Doge Coin

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024).
Posted in Contributors | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

USD Coin: Deep Dive into  the Role of Stablecoins in Modern Finance

 Snehasish CHINARA

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains the stable coin USD Coin.

Historical context and background

USD Coin (USDC) is a type of cryptocurrency known as a stablecoin, designed to maintain a stable value relative to the US dollar (USD). It was launched in September 2018 by Centre Consortium, a collaboration between cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and blockchain technology company Circle. The primary goal of USDC is to provide a digital asset that can be easily transferred between users and used for transactions, while minimizing the volatility typically associated with other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

The need for stablecoins like USDC arose due to the inherent volatility of many cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin and other digital assets have gained significant attention and adoption, their prices can fluctuate dramatically over short periods, which can make them less practical for everyday transactions and financial contracts. Stablecoins like USDC offer a solution to this problem by pegging their value to a stable asset, such as the US dollar, thereby providing stability and predictability for users.

USDC operates on the Ethereum blockchain as an ERC-20 token, making it compatible with a wide range of decentralized applications (dApps) and enabling seamless integration with the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. This infrastructure allows users to easily send and receive USDC tokens across various platforms and services, including exchanges, wallets, and payment processors.

Since its launch, USDC has seen significant growth in adoption and usage. It has become one of the most widely used stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market, with billions of dollars worth of USDC tokens in circulation. Its stability and liquidity have made it a popular choice for traders, investors, and businesses looking to transact in digital assets without exposure to the volatility of other cryptocurrencies.

USD Coin Logo

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Figure 1. Key Dates in USDC History

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Key features

Stability

USD Coin is a stablecoin, meaning it is pegged to the value of the US dollar on a 1:1 basis. This stability is maintained through regular audits and backing by reserves of US dollars held in custody by regulated financial institutions.

Transparency

USDC operates on blockchain technology, providing transparency and immutability of transactions. Every USDC token is backed by an equivalent number of US dollars held in reserve, which is regularly audited and transparently reported to ensure trust among users.

Speed and Efficiency

Transactions involving USDC can be executed quickly and efficiently on blockchain networks, enabling near-instantaneous settlement compared to traditional banking systems, which may take days for cross-border transactions.

Global Accessibility

USDC enables borderless transactions, allowing users to send and receive payments globally without the need for intermediaries such as banks. This accessibility empowers individuals and businesses, particularly in regions with limited access to traditional financial services.

Interoperability

USDC is compatible with various blockchain platforms and protocols, including Ethereum, Algorand, and Solana, among others. This interoperability facilitates its integration into a wide range of decentralized applications (DApps) and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems.

Use cases

Remittances and Cross-Border Payments:

USDC provides a cost-effective and efficient solution for remittance payments and cross-border transactions, enabling individuals and businesses to transfer value across borders quickly and securely without the need for traditional banking intermediaries.

Stable Value Storage

Due to its stable value pegged to the US dollar, USDC serves as a reliable store of value and a hedge against volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Users can hold USDC as a stable asset to preserve purchasing power and mitigate the risks associated with price fluctuations in other cryptocurrencies.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Applications

USDC is widely used as a liquidity provider and collateral asset in various DeFi protocols and applications such as decentralized exchanges (DEXs), lending platforms, yield farming, and liquidity pools. Users can leverage USDC to earn interest, borrow assets, or participate in yield farming strategies within the DeFi ecosystem.

Commerce and Payments

Merchants and businesses can accept USDC as a form of payment for goods and services, leveraging its fast transaction settlement times and low transaction fees compared to traditional payment methods. Integrating USDC payments can streamline cross-border commerce and reduce friction associated with fiat currency conversions.

Financial Inclusion

USDC plays a crucial role in expanding financial inclusion by providing access to digital financial services for individuals and communities underserved by traditional banking infrastructure. By utilizing blockchain technology and stablecoins like USDC, individuals without access to traditional banking services can participate in the global economy and access a wide range of financial products and services.

Technology and underlying blockchain

USD Coin (USDC) operates on a blockchain-based infrastructure, primarily leveraging the Ethereum blockchain as its foundation. Utilizing Ethereum’s smart contract functionality, USDC tokens are issued, transferred, and redeemed in a transparent and trustless manner. The ERC-20 standard, a set of rules and protocols defining interactions between tokens on the Ethereum network, governs the behavior of USDC tokens, ensuring compatibility with a wide range of wallets, exchanges, and decentralized applications (DApps). Moreover, USDC employs a consortium model for governance and operation, with regulated financial institutions serving as members responsible for the issuance, custody, and redemption of USDC tokens. These institutions adhere to strict regulatory compliance measures and conduct regular audits to verify that each USDC token is fully backed by an equivalent reserve of US dollars held in custody. This combination of blockchain technology, smart contracts, and regulatory oversight ensures the integrity, transparency, and stability of USD Coin, making it a trusted and widely adopted stablecoin within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

ERC-20 Standard of Ethereum for USD Coin

The ERC-20 standard, short for Ethereum Request for Comment 20, is a widely adopted technical specification governing the creation and implementation of fungible tokens on the Ethereum blockchain. Introduced by Fabian Vogelsteller and Vitalik Buterin in 2015, ERC-20 defines a set of rules and functions that enable seamless interoperability between different tokens, ensuring compatibility with various decentralized applications (DApps) and wallets. Tokens adhering to the ERC-20 standard are characterized by a consistent set of methods, including transfer, balance inquiry, and approval mechanisms, facilitating easy integration and widespread adoption across the Ethereum ecosystem. This standardization has played a pivotal role in the proliferation of tokenization, empowering developers to create diverse tokenized assets, conduct crowdfunding campaigns through Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), and establish decentralized exchanges (DEXs) where ERC-20 tokens are traded autonomously. Additionally, ERC-20 compliance enhances security and interoperability, fostering trust and usability within the Ethereum network.

Supply of coins

The supply dynamics of USD Coin (USDC) are governed by its underlying smart contract protocol and the management of its issuer, Centre Consortium, a collaboration between Circle and Coinbase. USDC operates on a principle of full backing, where each USDC token issued is backed by an equivalent number of US dollars held in reserve. This backing ensures a 1:1 peg to the US dollar, maintaining its stability. The issuance and redemption of USDC are facilitated through regulated financial institutions that hold the corresponding fiat reserves. Moreover, USDC’s supply is transparently audited on a regular basis, with attestations provided by reputable auditing firms to verify the adequacy of reserves. Through these mechanisms, the supply of USDC remains elastic, expanding or contracting based on market demand while preserving its stability and trustworthiness as a stablecoin in the digital asset ecosystem.

Historical data for USDC

How to get the data?

The USDC is popular cryptocurrency on the market, and historical data for the USDC such as prices and volume traded can be easily downloaded from the internet sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Blockchain.com & CoinMarketCap. For example, you can download data for USDC on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for USD Coin is USDC-USD).

Figure 2. USD Coin data

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Historical data for the USD Coin market prices

The historical market price of USD Coin (USDC) has remained relatively stable, as its primary function is to maintain a value pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio. Since its inception, USDC has consistently traded around the $1 mark, with minor fluctuations typically attributed to market dynamics and liquidity conditions. Investors and traders often utilize USDC as a safe haven asset or a means of temporarily exiting volatile cryptocurrency markets, contributing to its stability. This stability has made USDC a preferred choice for individuals and institutions seeking to hedge against cryptocurrency volatility or facilitate seamless transitions between digital and fiat currencies. Additionally, the transparent backing of USDC by reserves of US dollars held in custody by regulated financial institutions further enhances market confidence and contributes to its stable market price over time.The historical market price of USD Coin (USDC) has remained relatively stable, as its primary function is to maintain a value pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio. Since its inception, USDC has consistently traded around the $1 mark, with minor fluctuations typically attributed to market dynamics and liquidity conditions. Investors and traders often utilize USDC as a safe haven asset or a means of temporarily exiting volatile cryptocurrency markets, contributing to its stability. This stability has made USDC a preferred choice for individuals and institutions seeking to hedge against cryptocurrency volatility or facilitate seamless transitions between digital and fiat currencies. Additionally, the transparent backing of USDC by reserves of US dollars held in custody by regulated financial institutions further enhances market confidence and contributes to its stable market price over time.

Figure 3 below represents the evolution of the price of USD Coin in US dollar over the period Oct 2018 – Dec 2022. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 3. Evolution of the USD Coin price

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the USD Coin.

Download R file

Data file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the USD Coin from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on Oct, 2018. Table 1 below represents the top of the data file for the USD Coin downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 1. Top of the data file for the USD Coin

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Download the Python code for USD Coin data

Python script to download USD Coin historical data and save it to an Excel sheet::

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol for USD Coin

usdc_ticker = “USDC-USD”

# Define the date range for historical data

start_date = “2020-01-01”

end_date = “2022-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance

usdc_data = yf.download(usdc_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame from the downloaded data

usdc_df = pd.DataFrame(usdc_data)

# Define the Excel file path

excel_file_path = “USDC_historical_data.xlsx”

# Save the data to an Excel sheet

usdc_df.to_excel(excel_file_path, sheet_name=”USDC Historical Data”)

print(f”Data saved to {excel_file_path}”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download.

Evolution of the USD Coin

Figure 4 below gives the evolution of the USDC on a daily basis.

Figure 4. Evolution of the USD Coin.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Figure 5 below gives the evolution of the USD Coin returns from Oct, 2018 to December 31, 2022 on a daily basis.

Figure 5. Evolution of the USD Coin returns

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the USD Coin

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the USD Coin. Table 2 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the USD Coin:

  • The mean
  • The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
  • The skewness
  • The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 2. Summary statistics for USDC.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the USD Coin returns

Historical distribution

Figure 6 represents the historical distribution of the USD Coin daily returns for the period from Oct, 2018 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 6. Historical USDC distribution of the returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from October, 2018 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 7 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the USD Coin daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from October, 2018 to December, 2022.

Figure 7. Gaussian distribution of the USDC returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the USD Coin returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the USD Coin.

Table 3 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the USD Coin:

  • The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
  • The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 3. Risk measures for the USDC.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the XRP while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the XRP.

Why should I be interested in this post?

The post offers an opportunity for both newcomers and seasoned cryptocurrency enthusiasts to delve into the concept of stablecoins, gaining insights into how digital assets maintain stability amidst market volatility. Furthermore, the post highlights USDC’s role in fostering financial inclusion by enabling borderless transactions, appealing to readers passionate about democratizing finance. Additionally, exploring USDC’s significance in the burgeoning realm of decentralized finance (DeFi) could intrigue those interested in innovative financial technologies and investment opportunities. Examining USDC’s historical performance and market dynamics can offer valuable insights for investors and traders, while shedding light on its compliance measures and regulatory landscape can address concerns regarding legal risks, contributing to readers’ understanding and confidence in this digital asset.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

About cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA How to get crypto data

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Youssef EL QAMCAOUI Decentralised Financing

   ▶ Hugo MEYER The regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

About statistics

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Moments de la distribution

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Mesures de risques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Returns

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for USDC

CoinMarketCap Historical data for USDC

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024).

Posted in Contributors, Financial news, Financial techniques | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Private Banks : Treasuries Departments and proprietary asset allocation

Private Banks : Treasuries Departments and proprietary asset allocation

Quentin CHUZET

In this article, Quentin CHUZET (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), 2019-2023) explains about Private banks Treasuries Departments and the challenges of proprietary asset allocation.

Introduction

Within the Treasury Department of a Private Bank, the role of its employees is to record incoming and outgoing cash flows, as well as to direct the allocation of assets that comprise its Treasury. Thus, on one hand, we find the amount of cash on the asset side, and on the other hand, on the liability side, the amount of client deposits. In other words, it can be said that the Treasury is primarily constituted by the various deposits made by clients.

These are grouped into 2 categories: sight deposits (money visible in the client’s bank account, available and usable at any time) and term deposits (money placed generally in interest-bearing accounts but only available once the placement has matured).

Private Bank balance sheet
Private Bank balance sheet
Source: La Finance Pour Tous

To address performance and revenue challenges, the Treasury department manages cash by investing it in interest-bearing products, aiming to generate significant margins. This activity, performed by the Middle and Front Office teams, is referred to as proprietary trading or prop asset allocation.

Before the 2008 financial crisis, the regulatory environment was less stringent, granting banks greater freedom in risk management. However, the crisis highlighted the dangers of this approach, leading to a significant strengthening of regulations.

In 2013, Basel III introduced one of the most important regulatory agreements in banking. It aims to enhance the resilience of banks by increasing their capital and liquidity requirements. Basel III notably introduced a short-term liquidity ratio (LCR) and a long-term liquidity ratio (NSFR).

Regarding liquidity, private banks must now hold sufficient liquid assets to withstand mass deposit withdrawals. They must also comply with a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), requiring them to have enough high-quality liquid assets to cover their net cash outflows over a 30-day period.

In terms of solvency, private banks must now comply with a capital adequacy ratio (Cooke ratio), requiring them to have sufficient capital to absorb potential losses. Basel III also introduced a leverage ratio, limiting banks’ leverage.

To ensure compliance with these new regulatory frameworks while continuing to maximize revenue, banks have implemented treasury policies and control ratios to define limits and mitigate risks. These treasury policies, spanning multiple pages, guide Front Office teams in asset allocation to maintain the most efficient risk/return ratio possible. It is important to note that each bank has its own risk level, hence treasury policies and their respective limits may vary from one bank to another.

In general, a bank tends to favor a very low-risk level by prioritizing assets that can be quickly liquidated while limiting exposure to interest rate fluctuations or certain sectors. In the risk management process, liquidity and solvency ratios are monitored, as well as ratios related to interest rate risk and non-systematic risk.

Treasury Policy

These Treasury policies, spanning multiple pages, guide Front Office teams in asset allocation to maintain the most efficient risk/return ratio possible. It is important to note that each Bank possesses a risk level unique to itself, which is why Treasury Policies and their constituent limits may vary from one to another.

Thus, this document is divided into several limits and control ratios aimed at protecting against incurred risks. Among the main ratios present in the Treasury Policies, we find:

Liquidity and solvability ratios

Among liquidity and solvability ratios, controls are placed on the recovery time of securities held by the Treasury, with constraints notably regarding recoverable assets within 2 days and those recoverable within 30 days. Through these ratios, the average lifespan of the portfolio is controlled as well as the maximum duration of the securities, as well as the portion of assets placed with the Central Bank, ensuring a high rate of return in periods of high rates and near-immediate liquidity, as it is possible to recover from one day to the next.

These ratios aim to protect against the greatest risk a bank may face: that of illiquidity. This risk is heightened during crises and when clients wish to make massive withdrawals. The bank must thus ensure that all liquidity can be returned.

Security portfolio allocation’s ratios

Through these ratios, the Bank adheres to exposure limits by sector, industry, or company outlined in the Treasury policy: the leverage ratio is a significant indicator. This allows for diversification of allocations and investments and thus frees from specific risk. There are also control ratios based on Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch ratings or ESG ratings.

Finally, there are also ratios aimed at calculating the share represented by each asset class. It should be noted that each asset class represents what is called a “position” in the Treasury Sheet. In other words, each different class represents a different line. Among these lines are placements in the Money Market (Bond Portfolio, NEUCP Portfolio, placements in OPC funds), term interbank loans, currency and rate SWAPs, etc.

Sensitivity ratios

Through these ratios, the Treasury department controls the sensitivity to rates faced by Treasury assets. The Treasury Policy indicates threshold limits that should not be exceeded to ensure optimal rate adjustments, in the event of both increases and decreases.

Risk Management and Asset Allocation

Managing liquidity and solvability risk

To manage liquidity risk as effectively as possible, Private Banks can consider various strategies:

  • Purchase securities eligible for ECB refinancing
  • Maintain a high proportion of assets placed at the Central Bank on a daily basis (as they are highly liquid and yield interest at times of high interest rates).
  • Maintain a short maturity of the security portfolio and short-term deposits.

Interest-rate risk management

Interest-rate risk is a major issue for Private Banks, since a change in interest rates would have a major impact on the yield and price of bond holdings. The sensitivity of an asset represents the length of time during which it cannot be subjected to a variation in its interest rate. Thus, depending on the prevailing trend surrounding interest rate movements, Treasury Traders must invest to maintain a balanced sensitivity ratio. For example, in a scenario where the market strongly expects a future rate decrease, a strategy aimed at maximizing the adjustment period to the rate and thus the sensitivity ratio may be the best option. Conversely, in a scenario where the market anticipates a significant rate hike in the upcoming period, reducing the adjustment period to the rate for the portfolio would allow a quick re-indexing to a higher rate and reduce the time during which those assets would be “under-earning”.

Specific risk and diversification

A specific risk is linked to a particular event, affecting a single company, a sector of activity or a specific financial instrument. It differs from systemic risk, which affects the entire financial system. To reduce this risk, diversification is a key element, which is why a Private Bank can specify limits by sector or asset class in its Treasury Policy.

Therefore, the Treasury department of the Bank and its Front Office teams can allocate their assets to government bonds, as well as to corporate bonds in sectors such as retail, energy, or Real Estate.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the challenges of asset allocation within the Treasury of private banks are manifold. Guided by Treasury Policies, limits, and control ratios, it must adapt to the emergence of a new regulatory environment to define low-risk, high-liquidity investment strategies while addressing performance and revenue maximization objectives. Furthermore, proprietary asset allocation drives private banks to enhance their internal resources and develop tailored management tools.

Why should I be interested in this post?

If you’re interested in proprietary asset management, or in the workings of a treasury department within a private bank, you’ll find a first overview of these topics in this article.

If you have any questions about the position or the sector, please don’t hesitate to contact me on my personal Linkedin page, I’ll be delighted to answer them.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Asset Allocation Techniques

   ▶ Akshit GUPTA Asset Allocation

   ▶ Youssef LOURAOUI Equity Market Neutral Strategy

Useful resources

La Trésorerie active d’une entreprise

Banque-Trésorerie

Le Bilan d’une banque

Liquidité, solvabilité et crise bancaire : quelles relations ?

Diversification et gestion des risques

Les placements d’une Trésorerie d’entreprise

Le risque de taux

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Quentin CHUZET (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), 2019-2023).

Posted in Contributors, Financial techniques | Leave a comment

My experience as Revenue Analyst at Olympique de Marseille

My experience as Revenue Analyst at Olympique de Marseille

Quentin CHUZET

In this article, Quentin CHUZET (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), 2019-2023) shares his professional experience as Revenue Analyst at Olympique de Marseille.

About the company

Olympique de Marseille is a French football club founded in 1899. It is one of the most emblematic clubs in French and European football history, with an emblematic international reputation. Through decades of performance and media exposure, it has become an emblem of French sport, inscribing itself as a culture and tradition for millions of supporters around the world.

Logo of the Olympique de Marseille
Logo of Olympique de Marseille
Source: Olympique de Marseille.

Its takeover by the Mc Court Group in 2016 initiated a radical change in management and in the harmonization of processes, to continue to broaden its scope and enable grows bigger. Therefore, the club generates more than 200m € for the seasons 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 with 270m € of revenues expected for the season 2023-2024 It bases its growth on the sporting aspect but also on innovative sport business strategies. With a stadium capacity surpassing any of other Ligue 1 club (67.000 seats) and a meticulous ticketing strategy, the club is part of the Top 10 of the most attractive stadiums in Europe and continues to capitalize on its national and European reach.

OM Revenues vs other clubs.
OM Revenues vs others – Deloitte Report
Source: Deloitte Football Benchmark.

My apprenticeship

Joining Olympique de Marseille allowed me to discover and evolve within the soccer ecosystem, but also to take a practical approach to issues relating to football clubs revenues optimization and maximization.

The diversity of revenue sources at a club like Olympique de Marseille opens the door to a wide range of missions and tasks. As I was directly involved in all strategic aspects of revenue management : I was notably involved in defining the pricing of Ticketing & Hospitality (VIP) revenue streams, drawing up business plans for club projects, managing budgets and revenue targets set at the start of the season, analyzing financial opportunities represented by the entry of sponsors or investors, etc.

I therefore occupied a strategic role, acting as a pivot between the sales and finance teams, defining budgets alongside management control and that could be reachable for the commercial team, and while supporting the sales teams in achieving the latter by analyzing revenue opportunities and proposing strategic recommendations.

1/4 French Cup, season 2022-2023 : OM-Annecy. Historical record of attendance for a ¼ in the club’s and competition’s history.
Velodrome OM Annecy
Source: Olympique de Marseille.

My missions

Strategic recommendations and pricing

The main task assigned to a Revenue Analyst at Olympique de Marseille is to play an active role in defining pricing for the general public and VIPs at each match. To do this, I had to identify the exogenous variables of each match and quantify their impact in order to measure inbound demand as a function of a certain price level. Using historical data from similar matches and cross-referencing it with the maximization opportunities available at any given moment, I was responsible for drawing up the pricing and sales strategy (choosing best commercialization timing, best offer to address etc.) calculating forecast revenue trends and presenting my recommendations to management on several occasions. Thanks to our strategy the club reached the total of 1.550.000 attenders for a unique season and broke other records as the highest attendance ever known for one game (65.984 attendees vs PSG), the highest average attendance for one season (62.065 attendees), the highest number of sold-out games (23 over the season) and the highest attendance ever known for a French Cup game (63.929 attendees). Finally, the strategies leaded by the Revenue Management department leaded to a 4.8M € maximization of the total club revenues.

Participation in club project profitability studies

More generally, as a Revenue Analyst, I was involved in every aspect of the club’s revenue development.

Conducting pricing analysis and manage commercial strategy was part of the Ticketing & Hospitality revenue stream. However, my missions also involved providing my vision on certain high-stakes projects involving additional revenue generation. From the arrival of potential sponsors and investors to the launch of the new “Peuple Bleu&Blanc” loyalty program, I was responsible for measuring the profitability of these projects by calculating the potential income they could generate, while defining and steering a strategy for maximizing it.

Intermediary role between sales and finance teams

The role was multi-functional in terms of strategy, finance, and sales. We had to define ambitious, realistic budgets alongside management control, while supporting the sales teams in achieving them. To do this, we analyzed revenue opportunities and proposed appropriate strategic recommendations for the Ticketing, Hospitality, Retail, Membership and other revenue streams.

Development of steering tools and reporting dashboards

As the analysis are based almost entirely on the measurement of KPIs (Key Performance Indicators), the development of management tools represented a major challenge. So, it was up to me to play an active part, working with the IT (Information Technology) and back-office teams.

Required skills and knowledge

In my role at Olympique de Marseille, it is crucial to understand the financial and commercial issues facing the club and its teams. It’s also important to develop a strategic way of thinking in which everything can be optimized.

As a Revenue Analyst, every recommendation needs to be backed up by data, and every opportunity must be quantified to support each recommendations. That’s why you need to have an excellent mind for analyzing and interpreting data.

Furthermore, the numerous presentations and reports to management require solid written and oral communication skills (PowerPoint presentations, e-mail reports, etc.), as well as adaptability to the person you’re talking to, in order to make the right points and get your recommendations accepted.

In addition, mastery of Excel and the budgeting/revenue forecasting process is key to this position. As each decision has a significant impact on the season’s revenues, numerous budget forecasts are required, particularly around Best/Mid/Worst scenarios. It is also necessary to master the Power BI tool (Business Intelligence by Microsoft) to be able to develop and interpretate every KPI.

Finally, it is essential to be humble and questioning in order to identify areas for improvement in each strategy, and to meet management’s requirements on an ongoing basis and know how to identify the best practices of these recommendations.

OM revenues details for the 2022/2023 season.
OM Revenues - Deloitte Report
Source : Deloitte Report

Financial concepts related to my apprenticeship

Budget Management

Budget management is a key concept in this position, influencing the decisions of sales teams and having a major impact on every strategy implemented. Budget management represents a guideline for costs and revenues, and in particular the preparation of a forecast budget which serves as a basis for input management.

Revenue Management

Revenue Management is a key concept which consists of defining variables considered to have an impact on maximizing revenues in periods of growth and limiting losses in periods of decline. For a club such as Olympique de Marseille, this means capitalizing on positive trends (good sporting dynamics, special matches, etc.) and protecting revenues when the sportive situation is non-favorable : succession of bad games, bad weather on matchday, non-attractive game due to opponent.

Business Plans and Financial modeling

Studying the profitability of projects and simulating the impact of commercial strategies involves drawing up business plans and financial models in order to calculate forecast revenues. To do this, we need to establish different scenarios adapted to different contexts and KPIS and then take into account the action and development plans for these projects, as well as the business models used.

Why should I be interested in this post?

If you’re interested in the field of Finance and Strategy, particularly within a soccer club, then this article will give you a clearer picture of the tasks and skills required, as well as the importance of Revenue Management within a sporting institution. Through this empowering experience, I was able to develop both the hard skills that will serve me well in my future career in Finance, and the soft skills that will enable me to perform in a demanding, high-pressure environment.

If you have any questions about the position or the sector, please don’t hesitate to contact me on my personal Linkedin page, I’ll be delighted to answer them.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Revenue

   ▶ Medine ACAR Mon expérience professionnelle en tant que contrôleuse de gestion chez Carfuel

Useful resources

Official OM website

Deloitte reporting : Football Money League 2024 edition

Official French Football League website : All DNCG report until 2021-2022 season

Example of a Football club balance sheet : SC Bastia (French 1st division) during the 2015-2016 season

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Quentin CHUZET (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), 2019-2023).

Posted in Contributors, Professional experiences | Leave a comment

Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars

Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars

Jean-Marie Choffray

Dans cet article, Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY (Professeur Ordinaire Honoraire d’Informatique Décisionnelle à l’Université de Liège, PhD-77, Management Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) introduit son recent article “Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars”.

L’événement fondateur du XXe siècle est la première guerre mondiale, conséquence de rivalités politiques et économiques entre les puissances de l’Alliance et celles de l’Entente. Dix millions de civils et de militaires meurent. Vingt millions sont blessés. Mais, pour la première fois, une institution internationale est créée dans le but de régler les différends internationaux : la Société des Nations (SDN).

L’événement fondateur du XXIe siècle pourrait être la production en 2009 du premier bloc de transactions du réseau Bitcoin et, accessoirement, l’échange du premier bitcoin. Aucun mort. Aucun blessé. Mais, pour la première fois, un réseau informatique décentralisé permet d’enregistrer irréversiblement et de certifier irrévocablement tous types de transactions entre des intervenants souhaitant garder l’anonymat. En termes simples, un bitcoin est une copie numérique exploitable – i.e. conservable et échangeable – d’une série (chaîne) complète et indestructible de transactions sécurisées. Leur nombre est exponentiellement limité dans le temps (le dernier exemplaire sera produit vers 2140) et dans l’espace (vingt et un millions au total). Le réseau Bitcoin est en quelque sorte la « Banque Centrale » d’un écosystème numérique multipolaire dont seuls les utilisateurs contrôlent le devenir. Personne ne peut prévoir la diversité des applications que cette technologie autorise, ni les transformations qu’entrainera sa diffusion dans les secteurs où la fiabilité et la validité de l’information et des connaissances sont essentielles. Sa capitalisation boursière le rendrait-elle indestructible ? Pour un investisseur averti : ignorer Bitcoin, c’est se tirer une balle dans le pied… Et, tout miser sur Bitcoin, c’est se tirer une balle dans la tête !

   ▶ Lire l’article Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars

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A propos de l’auteur

L’article a été rédigé en mars 2024 par Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY (Professeur Ordinaire Honoraire d’Informatique Décisionnelle à l’Université de Liège, PhD-77, Management Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Posted in Contributors, Financial news | 1 Comment

Venture Capital 101: A Quick Overview

Venture Capital 101: A Quick Overview

Alessandro MARRAS

In this article, Alessandro MARRAS (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), Exchange Semester, September 2023-December 2023) gives a quick overview of Venture Capital.

What is Venture Capital?

Venture capital (VC) is a specialized form of financing where investors provide funds to startup or early-stage companies with high growth potential. This funding is crucial for startups to develop and expand their business operations. Venture capitalists not only provide financial support but also offer expertise and guidance to help these companies succeed. The goal of venture capital is to generate significant returns by investing in innovative businesses that have the potential to disrupt markets and achieve substantial growth.

VCs have five main functions:

  • They serve as financial intermediaries, channeling capital from investors into promising portfolio companies.
  • Their investments are directed towards private companies, making them illiquid assets.
  • VCs actively participate in the management and oversight of their portfolio companies, embodying active investors.
  • The primary objective of VCs is to maximize financial returns, typically through strategic exits like acquisitions or IPOs.
  • VCs prioritize investments in entrepreneurial ventures with substantial growth potential, aiming to foster internal growth and increase the likelihood of successful exits. These characteristics highlight the dynamic and strategic nature of venture capital investments, contributing to innovation and economic growth.

VCs vs others:

  • VCs differ from angel investors as they function as financial intermediaries rather than investing personal funds directly.
  • Unlike mutual or hedge funds, VCs invest specifically in private companies, placing them within the category of private equity and alternative investments.
  • While all VCs are private equity funds, the inverse isn’t true; not all private equity funds engage in venture capital.
  • VCs set themselves apart from crowdfunding platforms by actively participating in the companies they invest in, providing ongoing monitoring and management support.

How are VCs organized?

Venture capital firms are typically organized as limited partnerships, structured to facilitate investment activities while providing a degree of protection and incentive for both investors and managers. For investors this protection comes in the form of limited liability, meaning their risk of losing money is confined to their investment amount and they are not personally liable for the debts of the business. This allows them to invest in high-risk ventures with a capped downside. For managers the incentive is often structured as carried interest, a share of the profits of the investments, which aligns their financial interests with the success of the firm’s investments. This ensures that managers are motivated to select and nurture companies that will yield high returns, thereby directly linking their compensation to their performance in managing the venture capital firm’s portfolio.

Limited partnerships in venture capital consist of two main categories of partners. Firstly, there are limited partners, who contribute capital to the fund and bear limited liability. These investors can include wealthy individuals, banks, mutual funds, and other institutional investors. Secondly, there is the general partner, responsible for managing the fund’s operations and investments, and who assumes unlimited liability. Figures like Don Valentine, Ben Horowitz, and Peter Thiel are examples of notable general partners in the venture capital industry.

The lifespan of a typical limited partnership in venture capital is around ten years, during which investors’ capital is committed and cannot be withdrawn. General partners receive compensation in the form of a management fee and a share of the profits generated by successful investments, known as carried interest.

Limited partnerships offer tax efficiency, as they are not subject to corporate taxes, with partners instead paying taxes on their share of the profits. Additionally, distributions of securities to partners incur no immediate tax implications, with taxes only due upon the eventual sale of the securities.

This organizational structure provides a framework that incentivizes efficient investment management and aligns the interests of both limited and general partners in achieving successful outcomes.

Benefits of VC

Venture capital offers a range of benefits to both entrepreneurs and investors, fostering innovation, driving economic growth, and facilitating wealth creation. Firstly, venture capital provides crucial funding to startups and early-stage companies that may otherwise struggle to secure financing from traditional sources such as banks or public markets. This injection of capital enables entrepreneurs to pursue ambitious ideas and develop groundbreaking technologies, driving innovation across various industries. Moreover, venture capitalists often bring valuable expertise, networks, and mentorship to the table, helping startups navigate challenges, refine their business strategies, and accelerate their growth trajectory.

Secondly, venture capital plays a pivotal role in job creation and economic development. By supporting high-growth startups, venture capital investments fuel job creation, as these companies expand their operations, hire new talent, and contribute to local economies. Additionally, successful startups can spawn entire ecosystems of suppliers, service providers, and complementary businesses, further stimulating economic activity and driving regional prosperity.

Furthermore, venture capital investment offers attractive returns for investors willing to accept the inherent risks associated with early-stage ventures. While venture capital investments carry a higher risk of failure compared to traditional investments, they also offer the potential for substantial returns on successful exits, such as acquisitions or initial public offerings (IPOs). As a result, venture capital serves as a vital asset class for investors seeking diversification and opportunities for outsized returns in their investment portfolios.

VC Financing Cycle

The Venture Capital Financing Cycle delineates the sequential stages of funding that startups typically undergo, from inception to exit. This cycle starts with the Seed Stage, where initial capital is raised to prove concepts and build prototypes. As the startup matures, it may progress through various rounds of funding—Angel, Series A, Series B, and beyond—each designed to fuel growth, product development, market expansion, and operational scaling. The Bridge stage serves as a critical juncture for preparing more mature startups for substantial future rounds or positioning for exit strategies. The cycle culminates in the Pre-IPO and IPO Preparation stages, where companies ready themselves for public offering or seek acquisition opportunities, marking the exit phase. This framework not only structures the investment landscape but also maps the growth trajectory of startups. The VC financing cycle is emblematic of the symbiotic relationship between investors seeking to maximize returns and startups in need of capital to fuel their growth ambitions, fostering innovation and economic development within the broader ecosystem.

VCs financial performance in 2023

In 2023, the venture capital (VC) market experienced significant shifts, reflecting broader economic challenges and evolving investment trends. The year saw a considerable downturn in VC investments, dropping to the lowest levels in four years, with a year-over-year decrease of 35% from the already declining levels of 2022. The total amount raised by VC-backed startups barely surpassed $140 billion, influenced notably by a few mega-deals in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The decline was not just in the amount raised but also in deal volume across nearly all fund classes, reaching the lowest point in a decade. Later-stage investments saw the most significant reduction in dollar volume quarter-over-quarter, while Series A investments showed some resilience with a 9% increase.

The backdrop of economic headwinds, valuation concerns, and an overhang of more than 50,000 existing VC-backed startups created a challenging environment for new investments. VC fund formation also experienced a sharp decline, dropping 62% from the record year in 2022, although there was a slight uptick in the last quarter of the year. This situation has led to increased caution among venture capitalists, with a notable reluctance to engage in mega-round financing. Only 50 mega deals were recorded in the last quarter of 2023, marking the lowest total since 2017.

Despite these challenges, AI continued to garner significant attention and investment, driving many of the largest deals in the U.S. during the last quarter of 2023. This trend suggests that while the overall VC investment has declined, specific sectors, particularly those related to technological innovation and AI, continue to attract substantial interest and funding.

Why should I be interested in this post?

As an ESSEC students interested in finance, this post can be a useful resource due to its relevance in the financial sector. Understanding venture capital offers insights into alternative investments, career opportunities in private equity, and the dynamics of financing innovative startups, enriching your knowledge and potential career paths within the finance industry.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick presentation of the Private Equity field…

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the Venture Capitalist’s job…

   ▶ Marie POFF Film analysis: The Wolf of Wall Street

Useful resources

Zider B. (1998) How Venture Capital Works Harvard Business Review.

Jeffrey Grabow (29/01/2024) Will venture capital market rebound in 2024 or seek new floor? EY

KPMG Venture Pulse Q4 2023

Deloitte 2024 trends in venture capital

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Alessandro MARRAS (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), Exchange Semester, September 2023-December 2023).

Posted in Contributors, Financial techniques | Leave a comment

Top 5 Private Equity firms

Top 5 Private Equity firms

Alessandro MARRAS

In this article, Alessandro MARRAS (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), Exchange Semester, September 2023-December 2023) presents the top 5 Private Equity firms globally.

Introduction

In the dynamic landscape of finance, private equity firms wield significant influence driving innovation, growth, and value creation. These firms are renowned for their strategic investments and operational expertise, generating substantial returns for investors. In this post, we embark on a journey to uncover the top 5 Private Equity firms globally guided by specific metrics that underscore their reputation and success.

Methodology

To define the top 5 global Private Equity firms, we developed a methodology rooted in a detailed selection process and comprehensive data analysis. Given the vast landscape of private equity firms, our first step was to narrow down our focus by seeking rankings from reputable independent research institutes, such as Private Equity International and Forbes. These rankings served as a benchmark, helping us identify firms that consistently garnered recognition for their excellence within the industry.

From these rankings, we selected firms that appeared most frequently in the top 5, ensuring that our pool consisted of widely acknowledged and respected entities. This approach enabled us to narrow down our analysis to a manageable number of firms, facilitating a more in-depth assessment of their performance and standing.

With our selection criteria in place, we turned to publicly listed firms, as their annual reports provide accessible data crucial for our analysis. It is important to understand that being publicly listed means that the private equity firm is listed on stock exchanges, and anyone can buy shares in the company. However, this is a big difference from investing in private equity funds, where the capital raised is used to buy portfolio companies.

From this we obtained the 5 firms to rank:

  • Blackstone Inc.
  • KKR & Co Inc.
  • The Carlyle Group Inc.
  • Apollo Global Management, Inc.
  • TPG Inc.

To rank these firms, we will be guided by essential measurement metrics that illuminate their standing and impact within the industry. Our evaluation method hinges on key indicators, including Assets Under Management (AUM), fundraising totals, and performance metrics such as gross returns. From an investor’s perspective, this comprehensive approach ensures a deep understanding of each firm’s financial health, strategic positioning, and potential for generating future returns, allowing for informed decision-making in investment opportunities.

Let’s have a more in depth look at the metrics (criterion) used:

Fundraising Totals Over the Last 5 Years. This metric provides insight into each firm’s ability to attract capital from investors over an extended period, reflecting investor confidence and the firm’s fundraising track record.

Total Private Equity AUM (in 2023). Total AUM for the private equity segment in 2023 serves as a measure of the firm’s scale and market presence within the private equity industry.

Private Equity Portfolio Returns (gross returns 2023). This metric represents the firm’s performance in generating returns from its investments in corporate private equity, providing a measure of investment effectiveness and value creation.

For each criterion, we will assign ranks to each firm based on their performance relative to others, with 1 being the highest rank and 5 being the lowest. We will then calculate the average score for each company and rank them accordingly. Each criterion weights the same.

Blackstone

Logo of Blackstone.
Logo of Blackstone
Source: the company.

Fundraising Totals: 126bn$

AUM: 304bn$

Gross returns: 12.1%

KKR

Logo of KKR.
Logo of KKR
Source: the company.

Fundraising Totals: 104bn$

AUM: 176bn$

Gross returns: 16%

The Carlyle Group (CG)

Logo of the Carlyle.
Logo of Carlyle
Source: the company.

Fundraising Totals: 70bn$

AUM: 161bn$

Gross returns: 5%

Apollo Global Management.

Logo of Apollo Global Management.
Logo of Apollo
Source: the company.

Fundraising Totals: 23bn$

AUM: 75.9bn$

Gross returns: 10.2%

TPG

Logo of TPG.
Logo of TPG
Source: the company.

Fundraising Totals: 55bn$

AUM: 97.8bn$

Gross returns: 14.1%

Conclusion

Once we consider all these elements, here are the ranks we obtain for each criterion and their average for each firm:

Therefore, our final ranking for the top 5 Private Equity firms globally in 2023 is:

  1. Blackstone
  2. KKR
  3. TPG
  4. The Carlyle Group
  5. Apollo Global Management

Note: Blackstone is ranked first in more criteria/metrics compared to KKR, demonstrating superior performance across multiple dimensions, and affirming its position as the top-performing firm in the final ranking.

Why should I be interested in this post?

As an ESSEC student enrolled in the SimTrade course, delving into the realm of Private Equity could be of great interest to you. This post serves as an insightful exploration into the industry’s key players, offering valuable insights into their distinctive characteristics. It presents an opportunity to deepen your understanding of the sector and potentially discover your future employer among these influential firms.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Chloé ANIFRANI Top 5 Asset Management firms in Europe

   ▶ Lilian BALLOISDiscovering Private Equity: Behind the Scenes of Fund Strategies

Useful resources

Private Equity International

Forbes Top 10 U.S. Private Equity Firms Of March 2024

TPG Inc.

The Carlyle Group Inc.

KKR & Co Inc.

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Blackstone Inc.

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Alessandro MARRAS (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), Exchange Semester, September 2023-December 2023).

Posted in Contributors, Financial news | Leave a comment

My professional experience as a financial and accounting assistant at Professional Services

My professional experience as a financial and accounting assistant at Professional Services

Alessandro MARRAS

In this article, Alessandro MARRAS (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), Exchange Semester, September 2023-December 2023) shares his professional experience as a financial and accounting assistant at Professional Services.

About the company

Professional Services was founded in 1986 by a team of professionals (lawyers, chartered accountants, and labor consultants), with the aim of providing services to businesses in the accounting, labor, administrative, tax, and corporate sectors. The mission is to offer entrepreneurs an integrated package of services capable of stimulating organizational transformations and facilitating the achievement of adequate levels of competitiveness. The target audience addressed by the Group primarily consists of Italian and foreign companies operating in the service sector and tertiary industries in general, as well as industrial, commercial, transportation, etc. With over thirty years of experience in the sector and an average annual group turnover of approximately €2,000,000, Professional Services can guarantee their clients the highest level of professionalism.

Logo of Professional Services.
Logo of Professional Services
Source: Professional Services.

As an assistant, I was part of the financial and accounting advisory department of Professional Services. In this department we were entrusted with critical responsibilities spanning the processing of accounting data and the provision of essential accounting and administrative services. The department served as the backbone of the organization, providing essential support across a spectrum of financial activities. We were responsible for maintaining accurate and up-to-date accounting records, ensuring the integrity of financial information. Moreover, we undertook the crucial task of preparing and analyzing financial statements, offering insights vital for informed decision-making. Additionally, the team managed various accounting and administrative services, including the maintenance of corporate books, providing corporate assistance, and overseeing the intricate landscape of taxation, encompassing value-added tax (VAT), personal income tax, corporate income tax, and regional tax on productive activities.

My internship

I had a 3-month internship at Professional Services as a financial and accounting assistant in 2023.

My missions

Over the course of these three months, my mission was to prepare and analyze the financial statements for our clients. I ensured that these statements were accurate and complied with relevant accounting standards, providing reliable insights for decision-making. This involved meticulously reviewing balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements for the given clients and reporting how these statements were in comparison to industry benchmarks. Moreover, I contributed to the maintenance of clients’ accounting records, assisting in the establishment of a comprehensive and organized financial record-keeping system. I did this through a software called Profis which helped by facilitating the compilation of balance sheets and declarations and performing tax simulations. Additionally, I handled various tasks related to invoicing, ensuring accurate processing and organization to facilitate smooth financial transactions for our clients. By fulfilling these responsibilities diligently, I aimed to support our clients in maintaining financial integrity, facilitating informed business decisions, and providing excellent service overall.

Required skills and knowledge

During this internship, I sharpened a combination of soft and hard skills that were indispensable for my position. Soft skills, such as effective communication, were essential. The ability to convey complex financial information clearly and succinctly to colleagues was crucial. Additionally, strong interpersonal skills facilitated collaboration within the team and ensured smooth workflow.

Attention to detail emerged as a critical soft skill, particularly when working with financial data and reports. The ability to meticulously analyze information and identify discrepancies was crucial for maintaining accuracy and reliability. Furthermore, time management skills were invaluable, as I often juggled various tasks and deadlines while prioritizing workload effectively.

On the hard skills front, proficiency in accounting principles and practices was fundamental. This included a thorough understanding of IFRS accounting regulations and principles, coupled with experience in financial statement preparation and analysis. Additionally, familiarity in applications such as a spreadsheet like Excel and an accounting software like Profis was essential. Mastery of Excel allowed me to manipulate and analyze financial data efficiently, while knowhow in Profis facilitated specific accounting operations and analyses required for the firm’s services.

Adaptability was also key, given the dynamic nature of the internship environment. The ability to quickly learn and adapt to new software and procedures ensured that I could contribute effectively to the team’s objectives. Overall, the combination of soft and hard skills enabled me to excel in my internship at Professional Services, providing me with invaluable experience and preparing me for future challenges in the field of finance and accounting.

What I learned

In terms of knowledge, I learned a multitude of valuable lessons that have significantly contributed to my professional growth and development. Firstly, I gained hands-on experience in financial statement preparation and analysis, improving my skills in interpreting financial data and drawing meaningful insights to support decision-making processes. Through my work. An integral part of this experience was learning to meticulously review and reconcile accounts to ensure accuracy in financial reporting. By identifying and correcting discrepancies between the general ledger and subsidiary accounts, I helped maintain the integrity of financial statements. Additionally, I deepened my understanding of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) accounting principles and regulations, which are crucial for ensuring transparency, accountability, and comparability of financial statements. By familiarizing myself with these principles, I was able to assist in preparing financial statements that met regulatory requirements, enhancing the credibility and reliability of our clients’ financial information.

Moreover, working with software applications such as Excel and Profis expanded my technical proficiency, allowing me to efficiently manipulate and analyze financial data. This experience has enhanced my ability to leverage technology to streamline processes and improve productivity in the workplace.

On a broader level, my internship at Professional Services provided me with invaluable exposure to the dynamics of the finance and accounting industry, in the sense that I gained insight into the day-to-day operations of a consultancy firm, including client interactions, and the importance of maintaining accuracy and integrity in financial reporting.

Furthermore, collaborating with colleagues from diverse backgrounds, such as with different experiences, educational backgrounds and different areas of expertise, has improved my communication and teamwork skills, fostering an appreciation for the importance of effective collaboration in achieving organizational goals.

Overall, my internship experience at Professional Services has equipped me with a comprehensive skill set, valuable insights, and a deeper understanding of the finance and accounting profession, laying a strong foundation for my future career aspirations.

Financial concepts related my internship

Financial Statement Analysis

Financial statement analysis involves evaluating a company’s financial performance and position by examining its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. In my role, I actively participated in the preparation and analysis of financial statements for clients, ensuring accuracy and compliance with accounting standards.

Financial Reporting Standards

Financial reporting standards refer to a set of guidelines and rules established by regulatory bodies or standard-setting organizations to govern the preparation and presentation of financial statements. These standards aim to ensure consistency, transparency, and comparability in financial reporting across different organizations and industries. In my role, I applied financial reporting standards to prepare and review clients’ financial statements and records, ensuring accuracy and transparency in reporting.

Taxation

Taxation includes corporate income tax, applied to business profits, and value-added tax (VAT), imposed on goods and services at each stage of production. Corporate income tax understanding involves knowledge of tax laws, deductions, and applicable rates. Similarly, understanding VAT requires knowledge of registration, taxable transactions, and applicable rates. Even though I was not directly involved, the team was responsible in accounting for VAT and corporate income tax for clients, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations.

Why should I be interested in this post?

An ESSEC student aspiring to pursue a career in finance would find my experience at Professional Services particularly compelling. By sharing my experience as a financial and accounting assistant, I aim to offer fellow ESSEC students a glimpse into the practical application of finance concepts in a professional setting, inspiring and informing their own career aspirations in the field.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ All posts about Professional experiences

   ▶ Louis DETALLE A quick review of the Audit job…

Useful resources

Professional Services

About the author

The article was written in March 2024 by Alessandro MARRAS (ESSEC Business School, Global Bachelor in Business Administration (GBBA), Exchange Semester, September 2023-December 2023).

Posted in Contributors, Professional experiences | Leave a comment

Tether: Unraveling the Impact of the Stablecoin on Modern Finance

 Snehasish CHINARA

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains the cryptocurrency Tether.

Historical context and background

Tether (USDT) emerged in July 2014 as a groundbreaking cryptocurrency designed to bridge the gap between traditional fiat currencies and the digital realm. Conceived by Brock Pierce, Craig Sellars, and Reeve Collins, Tether aimed to offer a stable alternative to the price volatility commonly associated with other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Functioning as a stablecoin, Tether is pegged to the value of a fiat currency, primarily the US Dollar, maintaining a 1:1 ratio. This pegging mechanism provides a degree of price stability, making Tether an attractive option for traders and investors seeking to mitigate the risks inherent in the crypto market. Since its inception, Tether has grown to become one of the most widely used cryptocurrencies, playing a pivotal role in facilitating liquidity and serving as a gateway for funds within the broader digital asset ecosystem. Despite its popularity, Tether has faced scrutiny regarding its transparency and reserve backing, adding layers of complexity to its intriguing history within the crypto landscape.

Tether Logo

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Figure 1. Key Dates in Tether History

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Key features

  • Stability: Tether is designed to maintain a 1:1 peg with a fiat currency, typically the US Dollar. This pegging mechanism provides stability in value, reducing the volatility commonly associated with other cryptocurrencies.
  • Widespread Adoption: Tether is widely adopted across various cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms. Its broad acceptance makes it a popular choice for traders and investors.
  • Liquidity Provider: Tether serves as a crucial source of liquidity within the cryptocurrency market. Traders often use USDT as a safe haven during times of market turbulence.
  • Fast Transactions: Tether transactions are conducted on blockchain networks like Ethereum and Tron, enabling fast and efficient cross-border transactions compared to traditional banking systems.
  • Global Accessibility: Tether provides a borderless financial solution, allowing users to send and receive funds globally without the need for traditional banking intermediaries.
  • Smart Contract Compatibility: Tether is compatible with blockchain-based smart contracts, enabling developers to integrate it into decentralized applications (DApps) for various financial services.

Use cases

  • Trading Pairs: Tether is extensively used as a trading pair on cryptocurrency exchanges. It allows traders to quickly move in and out of positions while avoiding the market volatility associated with other digital assets.
  • Hedging: Investors often use Tether as a hedging tool to safeguard their portfolios against market fluctuations. By converting their holdings to USDT during uncertain times, investors can protect their capital.
  • Remittances: Tether facilitates cross-border remittances, offering a faster and potentially more cost-effective alternative to traditional money transfer services.
  • Stable Value Storage: Tether serves as a stable store of value, allowing users to preserve their wealth in a cryptocurrency that is less prone to price fluctuations compared to other volatile digital assets.
  • Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Tether is a common stablecoin used in decentralized finance protocols for lending, borrowing, and yield farming activities within the growing DeFi ecosystem.
  • Tokenized Assets: Tether is utilized to represent traditional assets in tokenized form on blockchain platforms, enabling fractional ownership and increased liquidity for real-world assets.

Controversy

While Tether has gained popularity for its stability and utility, it has also faced criticism and regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding its reserve backing and transparency. The paper “Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?”, analyses Tether’s controversies revealing that the significant growth of Tether, the largest pegged cryptocurrency, may not solely be driven by organic investor demand but also by a scheme to artificially inflate cryptocurrency prices. By analyzing the blockchains of Bitcoin and Tether, the researchers found evidence suggesting that a major player on Bitfinex utilizes Tether to purchase large amounts of Bitcoin during price downturns, effectively supporting Bitcoin prices. This intervention is particularly pronounced near round-number price thresholds, indicating a strategic approach to price support. The data also suggests that Tether issuance correlates with a month-end need for dollar reserves, implying partial reserve backing. Overall, these findings lend support to the hypothesis that Tether’s growth is supply-driven and potentially manipulative.

Furthermore, the paper highlights the broader implications of these findings, suggesting that price manipulation in cryptocurrencies can have significant distortive effects beyond standard supply-and-demand dynamics. It highlights the need for external surveillance, monitoring, and regulatory frameworks in the cryptocurrency space, challenging the notion that innovative technologies alone can bypass the need for traditional oversight. The conclusion suggests that while cryptocurrencies offer new possibilities for financial innovation, they are not immune to the risks associated with dubious activities and speculative bubbles, which could ultimately lead to further price distortions and negative impacts on the market.

Technology and underlying blockchain

Tether (USDT), a the stablecoin, utilizes blockchain technology across various networks to provide a digital asset pegged to traditional fiat currencies. The Ethereum-based ERC-20 version is the most prevalent, benefiting from Ethereum’s widespread adoption and smart contract capabilities, making it a cornerstone for decentralized exchanges and DeFi applications. Tether also operates on the Tron blockchain (TRC-20), offering faster transactions and reduced fees, particularly appealing for high-frequency trading. Acknowledging the demand for scalability and cost-effectiveness, Tether has expanded to alternative blockchains like Binance Smart Chain and Solana. These adaptations highlight Tether’s commitment to meeting diverse market needs. Managed by Tether Limited, the stablecoin asserts stability through regular audits and claims of holding equivalent fiat reserves, although controversies have arisen regarding transparency. The dynamic interplay of Tether across various blockchains underscores its pivotal role in the evolving landscape of digital finance.

Supply of coins

The market supply of Tether (USDT), a leading stablecoin, plays a crucial role in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Tether’s supply dynamics are intrinsically linked to its unique issuance mechanism. Tether Limited, the company behind USDT, mints new tokens by receiving equivalent amounts of fiat currency, primarily the US Dollar, in its reserves. This issuance process is supposed to ensure a 1:1 peg between USDT and the underlying fiat currency, promoting price stability.

The market supply of Tether expands as demand for the stablecoin increases. Traders and investors often turn to USDT as a safe haven during times of high volatility, effectively increasing the circulating supply. This heightened demand results in additional Tether being issued to maintain the peg, thus influencing the overall supply in the market.

Monitoring Tether’s supply is of particular interest due to its significant impact on liquidity within the cryptocurrency space. An influx of USDT into the market provides traders with a reliable means to navigate price fluctuations without fully exiting the crypto market, enhancing liquidity and potentially mitigating market volatility.

Historical data for Tether

How to get the data?

The Tether is popular cryptocurrency on the market, and historical data for the Tether such as prices and volume traded can be easily downloaded from the internet sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Blockchain.com & CoinMarketCap. For example, you can download data for Tether on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for Tether is USDT-USD).

Figure 1. Tether data

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Historical data for the Tether market prices

Exploring the historical market price of Tether (USDT) unveils a wealth of insights into the cryptocurrency’s role and its impact on the broader market. The stability of Tether, designed to maintain a 1:1 peg with traditional fiat currencies, is reflected in its price history. Observing deviations from this peg over time provides a gauge of Tether’s effectiveness as a stablecoin. Moreover, fluctuations in Tether’s historical price serve as a barometer for market sentiment, indicating periods of increased demand for stability during cryptocurrency market volatility. Tether’s price movements also offer a lens into liquidity trends, showcasing its role in various financial activities within the crypto ecosystem. Crucially, analyzing Tether’s historical price can illuminate market responses to controversies, regulatory developments, and its correlation with other major cryptocurrencies. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors and traders seeking to navigate the intricate landscape of digital assets and stablecoins.

Figure 2 below represents the evolution of the price of Tether in US dollar over the period Nov 2017 – Dec 2023. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 2. Evolution of the Tether price

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the Ethereum.

Download R file

Data file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the Ethereum from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on December, 2017.

Table 1 below represents the top of the data file for the Ethereum downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 1. Top of the data file for the Tether

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Download the Excel file with Tether data

Python script to download Ethereum historical data and save it to an Excel sheet::

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol for Tether

eth_ticker = “USDT-USD”

# Define the date range for historical data

start_date = “2020-01-01”

end_date = “2022-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance

usdt_data = yf.download(eth_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame from the downloaded data

usdt_df = pd.DataFrame(usdt_data)

# Define the Excel file path

excel_file_path = “tether_historical_data.xlsx”

# Save the data to an Excel sheet

usdt_df.to_excel(excel_file_path, sheet_name=”USDT Historical Data”)

print(f”Data saved to {excel_file_path}”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download.

Evolution of the Tether

Figure 3 below gives the evolution of the Tether on a daily basis.

Figure 3. Evolution of the Tether.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Figure 4 below gives the evolution of the Tether returns from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022 on a daily basis.

Figure 4. Evolution of the Tether returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the Ethereum

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the Tether.

Table 4 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the Ethereum:

  • The mean
  • The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
  • The skewness
  • The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 2. Summary statistics for Tether.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the Tether returns

Historical distribution

Figure 5 represents the historical distribution of the Tether daily returns for the period from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 5. Historical Tether distribution of the returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 6 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the Tether daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 6. Gaussian distribution of the Tether returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the Tether returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the tether.

Table 3 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the Ethereum:

  • The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
  • The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 5. Risk measures for the Tether.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the XRP while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the XRP.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Tether is a compelling subject for students, especially those in finance, economics, business, and technology. Ripple’s focus on revolutionizing cross-border transactions and its unique blockchain technology offer insights into innovations in financial technology. Exploring Tether provides a deeper understanding of blockchain, cryptocurrency markets, stable coins, regulatory challenges, and the practical applications of decentralized systems. Students can gain valuable knowledge about market dynamics, investment opportunities, and the intersection of technology and finance by delving into the complexities of Tether and its impact on the financial industry.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

About cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA How to get crypto data

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Youssef EL QAMCAOUIDecentralised Financing

   ▶ Hugo MEYERThe regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

   ▶ JOHN M. GRIFFIN, AMIN SHAMS Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?

About statistics

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Moments de la distribution

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Mesures de risques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Returns

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for Tether

CoinMarketCap Historical data for Tether

About the author

The article was written in January 2024 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024).

Posted in Contributors | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

XRP: Pioneering Financial Revolution

 Snehasish CHINARA

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains the cryptocurrency XRP/Ripple.

Historical context and background

XRP, the digital currency associated with the Ripple network, emerged against the backdrop of a growing interest in blockchain technology and its potential applications beyond cryptocurrencies. The development of Ripple began in 2012 when Jed McCaleb, Chris Larsen, and Arthur Britto joined forces to create a decentralized digital currency system. Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, aimed to address the inefficiencies in traditional cross-border payments by providing a fast and cost-effective alternative. Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on a proof-of-work consensus mechanism, Ripple utilizes a unique consensus algorithm called the Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA). The XRP Ledger, the underlying technology, is designed to facilitate quick and secure transactions, making it particularly appealing for financial institutions. Over the years, Ripple has garnered both support and criticism within the crypto community due to its centralized nature and ongoing legal challenges. Nevertheless, its focus on facilitating seamless global transactions has positioned XRP as a significant player in the evolving landscape of digital assets.

XRP Logo

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Figure 1. Key Dates in XRP History

Source: Yahoo! Finance and other internet sources

Key features and use cases

  • Fast and Low-Cost Transactions: One of the primary features of XRP is its speed and cost-effectiveness. The XRP Ledger is capable of processing transactions in just a few seconds, making it significantly faster than traditional banking systems and some other cryptocurrencies. The low transaction fees associated with XRP contribute to its appeal for cross-border payments.
  • Liquidity and Scalability: XRP is designed to handle a high volume of transactions, providing liquidity for financial institutions. This scalability is crucial for the adoption of XRP in large-scale financial applications, including remittances and institutional transfers.
  • Interoperability: Ripple aims to facilitate interoperability between different financial systems. XRP can act as a bridge currency between fiat currencies, enabling seamless and efficient transactions across borders. This interoperability is particularly valuable in the context of global finance.
  • Decentralization with Unique Consensus Algorithm: While Ripple has faced criticism for some aspects of centralization, the XRP Ledger employs the Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA) for transaction validation. This consensus mechanism is more energy-efficient compared to proof-of-work used by some other cryptocurrencies.
  • Partnerships with Financial Institutions: Ripple has formed partnerships with various financial institutions, including banks and payment service providers. The aim is to leverage XRP for real-time, cross-border payments, reducing settlement times and costs for these institutions.
  • Smart Contracts and Tokenization: Ripple has also explored adding smart contract functionality to the XRP Ledger, expanding its use cases beyond simple transactions. Additionally, the platform has the potential for tokenization of real-world assets, allowing for the representation of various assets on the blockchain.
  • Stability and Predictable Supply: XRP has a fixed supply of 100 billion tokens, with a portion held by Ripple Labs. This fixed supply aims to provide stability and predictability, which could be attractive for businesses and investors.

While XRP has faced regulatory challenges and debates about its decentralization, its unique features and focus on solving real-world financial issues position it as a cryptocurrency with substantial potential in the global financial landscape.

Technology and underlying blockchain

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with the Ripple network, operates on a distinct technological framework, utilizing a consensus algorithm that sets it apart from traditional proof-of-work systems. At the heart of XRP’s technology is the XRP Ledger, a decentralized blockchain that enables fast and secure transactions. The unique consensus mechanism employed by Ripple is known as the Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA). Unlike the energy-intensive mining processes seen in proof-of-work systems, RPCA operates on a consensus model that involves a network of independent validators reaching agreement on the order and validity of transactions. This consensus mechanism allows the XRP Ledger to achieve high throughput and swift confirmation times, making it well-suited for the efficient processing of cross-border payments and financial transactions. Additionally, the XRP Ledger supports the issuance of various tokens, potentially expanding its use cases beyond its native cryptocurrency. Despite debates about the decentralization of Ripple, the technology behind XRP continues to evolve, showcasing a commitment to addressing the challenges and opportunities in the rapidly evolving blockchain and cryptocurrency space. Additionally, the platform has explored the integration of smart contract functionality, opening possibilities for more complex and programmable transactions. The focus on scalability, interoperability, and speed positions XRP as a blockchain solution tailored for the demands of the global financial industry, particularly in the context of cross-border payments and remittances.

Supply of coins

The supply dynamics of XRP, the native cryptocurrency of the Ripple network, play a crucial role in shaping its market characteristics. Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on a mining process to gradually release new coins into circulation, XRP was created with its entire supply generated at inception. XRP has a fixed maximum supply of 100 billion coins, a feature that distinguishes it from some other cryptocurrencies with potentially infinite supplies. Notably, a substantial portion of the XRP supply is held by Ripple Labs, the company behind the cryptocurrency. Approximately 55 billion XRP are held in escrow by Ripple Labs, the company behind the development of the Ripple protocol. This escrow mechanism is designed to release a specific amount of XRP into circulation each month, reducing the potential for market manipulation and ensuring a predictable supply trajectory.

This allocation has been a point of discussion and scrutiny within the crypto community, with debates surrounding the potential impact of such centralization on the coin’s decentralization ethos. Ripple has taken steps to address concerns, implementing strategies such as the escrow system, which locks a large amount of XRP in time-released contracts to be gradually released into circulation. The controlled release aims to provide transparency and mitigate concerns related to sudden market influxes. The fixed supply, along with Ripple’s strategic initiatives, contributes to the stability and predictability of XRP in the market, influencing investor perceptions and shaping the overall market dynamics of the cryptocurrency.

Figure 2. Number of XRP Transaction per Day

Source: BitInfoCharts (Ethereum Transactions historical chart)

Historical data for XRP

How to get the data?

The XRP is popular cryptocurrency on the market, and historical data for the XRP such as prices and volume traded can be easily downloaded from the internet sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Blockchain.com & CoinMarketCap. For example, you can download data for XRP on Yahoo! Finance (the Yahoo! code for XRP is XRP-USD).

Figure 3. XRP data

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Historical data for the XRP market prices

Access to historical data on XRP, the cryptocurrency affiliated with Ripple, offers investors valuable insights and tools for decision-making. By analyzing past price trends and patterns, investors can better anticipate potential movements in XRP’s value, aiding in strategic buy or sell decisions. Historical data also serves as a record of XRP’s volatility, allowing investors to assess and manage risks effectively. Examining market sentiment during different periods provides a nuanced understanding of external factors that may impact XRP, such as regulatory developments or technological upgrades. Additionally, historical performance comparisons with other cryptocurrencies or traditional assets help investors evaluate XRP’s relative strength and potential for returns, informing optimal portfolio management. Event analysis around significant occurrences, such as partnerships or regulatory changes, assists in anticipating market reactions to future events. Furthermore, historical data aids in identifying market cycles, supporting investors in aligning their strategies with the prevailing market conditions. Recognizing key support and resistance levels based on historical prices enhances risk management by guiding entry and exit points. While historical data is a valuable tool, investors should blend it with current market analysis and fundamental factors for comprehensive decision-making, considering the inherent unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market.

Figure 4 below represents the evolution of the price of XRP in US dollar over the period Nov 2017 – Dec 2023. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 4. Evolution of the XRP price

Source: Yahoo! Finance

R program

The R program below written by Shengyu ZHENG allows you to download the data from Yahoo! Finance website and to compute summary statistics and risk measures about the XRP.

Download R file

Data file

The R program that you can download above allows you to download the data for the Ethereum from the Yahoo! Finance website. The database starts on December, 2017.

Table 3 below represents the top of the data file for the Ethereum downloaded from the Yahoo! Finance website with the R program.

Table 3. Top of the data file for XRP.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website)

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Download the Excel file with Ethereum data

Python script to download XRP historical data and save it to an Excel sheet::

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol for Ethereum

xrp_ticker = “XRP-USD”

# Define the date range for historical data

start_date = “2020-01-01”

end_date = “2022-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance

xrp_data = yf.download(xrp_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame from the downloaded data

xrp_df = pd.DataFrame(xrp_data)

# Define the Excel file path

excel_file_path = “xrp_historical_data.xlsx”

# Save the data to an Excel sheet

xrp_df.to_excel(excel_file_path, sheet_name=”XRP Historical Data”)

print(f”Data saved to {excel_file_path}”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download.

Evolution of the Ethereum

Figure 5 below gives the evolution of the Ethereum on a daily basis.

Figure 5. Evolution of the XRP.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Figure 6 below gives the evolution of the Ethereum returns from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022 on a daily basis.

Figure 6. Evolution of the XRP returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Summary statistics for the Ethereum

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute summary statistics about the returns of the Ethereum.

Table 4 below presents the following summary statistics estimated for the Ethereum:

  • The mean
  • The standard deviation (the squared root of the variance)
  • The skewness
  • The kurtosis.

The mean, the standard deviation / variance, the skewness, and the kurtosis refer to the first, second, third and fourth moments of statistical distribution of returns respectively.

Table 4. Summary statistics for XRP

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Statistical distribution of the Ethereum returns

Figure 7 represents the historical distribution of the Ethereum daily returns for the period from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 7. Historical XRP distribution of the returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Gaussian distribution

The Gaussian distribution (also called the normal distribution) is a parametric distribution with two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation of returns. We estimated these two parameters over the period from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 8 below represents the Gaussian distribution of the XRP daily returns with parameters estimated over the period from November 09, 2017 to December 31, 2022.

Figure 9. Gaussian distribution of the XRP returns.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

Risk measures of the Ethereum returns

The R program that you can download above also allows you to compute risk measures about the returns of the Ethereum.

Table 5 below presents the following risk measures estimated for the Ethereum:

  • The long-term volatility (the unconditional standard deviation estimated over the entire period)
  • The short-term volatility (the standard deviation estimated over the last three months)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the left tail (the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Value at Risk (VaR) for the right tail (the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the left tail (the average loss over the 5% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Expected Shortfall (ES) for the right tail (the average loss over the 95% quantile of the historical distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the left tail (the 1% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)
  • The Stress Value (SV) for the right tail (the 99% quantile of the tail distribution estimated with a Generalized Pareto distribution)

Table 5. Risk measures for the XRP.

Source: computation by the author (data: Yahoo! Finance website).

The volatility is a global measure of risk as it considers all the returns. The Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Stress Value (SV) are local measures of risk as they focus on the tails of the distribution. The study of the left tail is relevant for an investor holding a long position in the XRP while the study of the right tail is relevant for an investor holding a short position in the XRP.

Why should I be interested in this post?

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple, is a compelling subject for students, especially those in finance, economics, business, and technology. Ripple’s focus on revolutionizing cross-border transactions and its unique blockchain technology offer insights into innovations in financial technology. Exploring XRP provides a deeper understanding of blockchain, cryptocurrency markets, regulatory challenges, and the practical applications of decentralized systems. Students can gain valuable knowledge about market dynamics, investment opportunities, and the intersection of technology and finance by delving into the complexities of XRP and its impact on the financial industry.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

About cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA How to get crypto data

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Youssef EL QAMCAOUIDecentralised Financing

   ▶ Hugo MEYERThe regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

About statistics

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Moments de la distribution

   ▶ Shengyu ZHENG Mesures de risques

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Returns

Useful resources

Academic research about risk

Longin F. (2000) From VaR to stress testing: the extreme value approach Journal of Banking and Finance, N°24, pp 1097-1130.

Longin F. (2016) Extreme events in finance: a handbook of extreme value theory and its applications Wiley Editions.

Data

Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for XRP

CoinMarketCap Historical data for XRP

About the author

The article was written in January 2024 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024).

Posted in Contributors | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment