Will Trump be a blip in history?

Hubert Rodarie

In this article, Hubert RODARIE (Honorary President of the French Association of Institutional Investors — Af2i) introduces his latest book, Europe Confronting Trump, published by ESKA in May 2026.

This question lies at the heart of the analyses circulating in the media. Should Donald Trump’s election be viewed as an anomaly? Are all his decisions destined to be overturned by a new president, who will then be portrayed as responsible and serious?

Since 2016, the debate regarding Donald Trump has focused primarily on his personality, his provocations, and his excessive behavior. Most of his actions are described as erratic, questionable, and, above all, ineffective. Yet a fundamental question arises: how can we explain the bewilderment currently gripping Democrats in the United States, as well as leaders in the European Union and Washington’s Asian allies? A second question follows: how can we explain that, despite the Supreme Court’s overturning of the tariffs, the agreements reached in exchange for their adjustment or elimination have not been called into question but, on the contrary, have been confirmed (see, in particular, the European Parliament’s recent decision ratifying the July 2025 agreements)?

On May 14, 2026, L’Europe face à Trump (Europe Facing Trump) was published by ESKA. This book aims precisely to move beyond a superficial interpretation of events.

L’Europe face à Trump by Hubert Rodarie.
Couverture de l’ouvrage L’Europe face à Trump, par Hubert Rodarie
Source : ESKA Editions.

The author first demonstrates that Trump is neither an anomaly nor merely a media phenomenon. He derives his power from his ability to rally a majority of Americans who are currently dissatisfied with their living conditions. This ability is characteristic of demagogues, one of the most famous of whom was Pericles, yet he is considered one of the fathers of democracy. Trump and Pericles, the United States and Athens, do indeed share many similarities. Moreover, Trump relies heavily, in his actions, on a long-standing trend toward the concentration of executive powers at the federal level in the hands of the president. Yet this trend is common to both Democratic and Republican administrations. Trump thus acts by both mobilizing popular support and exploiting the underlying logic of the United States’ political organization.

Next, the author analyzes the foundations of a strategic project driven by a single ambition: to rebuild an autonomous American power. Unlike previous administrations, which continued the policies pursued over several decades, this strategy rests on three pillars that can be described as innovative:

  • The rebuilding of strategic power in the face of China, recognized as a systemic competitor. This is the direction set forth by the National Security Strategy of December 2025.
  • A trade policy, inspired by the Hamilton doctrine, to rebuild the United States’ capacity to produce goods and services. Presented in Davos in late January 2026, this doctrine signals the United States’ commitment to returning to the principles of the early GATT agreements: the American worker is once again the priority.
  • A monetary policy based on reaffirming the role of the dollar, abandoning unconventional monetary policies, returning to Treasury-led industrial policies, and prioritizing support for labor income over asset values. This direction, first outlined in late 2024, was confirmed by the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

This therefore represents a historic attempt to overturn not only the principles that have governed the U.S. economy and its relations with the rest of the world for the past forty years, but also the balance of power within the U.S. executive branch, by further strengthening federal power relative to that of the states. In short, a radical transformation of American society is underway.

In parallel, this book examines the European Union’s capacity to respond, its vulnerabilities, and the essential transformation it must undertake in the face of this upheaval. Faced with a strategy that is as clear as it is unapologetic, the European Union must assert itself. But is it capable of doing so? Do its leaders truly have the will to do so?

An incisive essay that helps us understand, beyond the turmoil, the logic behind a major transformation.

About the author

This article was written in July 2026 by Hubert RODARIE (Honorary President of the French Association of Institutional Investors — Af2i).

   ▶ Discover all articles by Hubert RODARIE.

Trump sera-t-il un accident de l’Histoire ?

Hubert Rodarie

Dans cet article, Hubert RODARIE (président d’honneur de l’Association française des investisseurs institutionnels — Af2i) présente son dernier ouvrage, L’Europe face à Trump, paru en mai 2026 aux éditions ESKA.

Trump sera-t-il un accident de l’Histoire ? Cette question est au cœur des analyses véhiculées par les médias. Faut-il considérer l’élection de Donald Trump comme une anomalie ? Toutes ses décisions sont-elles vouées à être abrogées par un nouveau président, présenté alors comme responsable et sérieux ?

Depuis 2016, le débat autour de Donald Trump s’est principalement focalisé sur sa personnalité, ses provocations et ses excès. La plupart de ses actions sont décrites comme erratiques, contestables et, surtout, inefficaces. Pourtant, une première interrogation s’impose : comment expliquer la forme de sidération qui frappe aujourd’hui les démocrates aux États-Unis, ainsi que les dirigeants de l’Union européenne et des pays asiatiques alliés de Washington ? Une seconde question en découle : comment expliquer que, malgré l’annulation des droits de douane par la Cour suprême, les accords obtenus en contrepartie de leur modulation ou de leur suppression ne soient pas remis en cause, mais au contraire confirmés — voir notamment la récente décision du Parlement européen entérinant les accords de juillet 2025 ?

Le 14 mai 2026 est paru L’Europe face à Trump aux éditions ESKA. Cet ouvrage se propose précisément de rompre avec une lecture trop superficielle des événements.

L’Europe face à Trump, par Hubert Rodarie.
Couverture de l’ouvrage L’Europe face à Trump, par Hubert Rodarie
Source : Éditions ESKA.

L’auteur montre d’abord que Trump n’est ni une anomalie ni un simple phénomène médiatique. Son pouvoir, il le tient de sa capacité à rallier une majorité d’Américains aujourd’hui insatisfaits de leurs conditions de vie. Cette capacité est celle des démagogues, dont l’un des plus célèbres fut Périclès, pourtant considéré comme l’un des pères de la démocratie. Trump et Périclès, les États-Unis et Athènes présentent effectivement de nombreux points communs. Plus encore, Trump s’appuie largement, pour agir, sur une tendance séculaire à la concentration des pouvoirs exécutifs au niveau fédéral entre les mains du président. Or, cette évolution est commune aux administrations démocrates comme républicaines. Trump agit donc à la fois en mobilisant le soutien populaire et en exploitant les logiques profondes de l’organisation politique des États-Unis.

Dans un second temps, l’auteur analyse les fondements d’un projet stratégique porté par une ambition : reconstruire une puissance américaine autonome. Contrairement aux mandats précédents, qui s’inscrivaient dans la continuité des politiques menées depuis plusieurs décennies, cette stratégie repose sur trois piliers que l’on peut qualifier d’innovants :

  • La reconstruction d’une puissance stratégique face à la Chine, reconnue comme un concurrent systémique. C’est l’orientation définie par la Stratégie nationale de sécurité de décembre 2025.
  • Une politique commerciale, inspirée de la doctrine Hamilton, visant à reconstituer aux États-Unis des capacités de production de biens et de services. Présentée à Davos à la fin du mois de janvier 2026, cette doctrine marque la volonté des États-Unis de revenir aux principes des premiers accords du GATT : le travailleur américain redevient la priorité.
  • Une politique monétaire fondée sur la réaffirmation du rôle du dollar, l’abandon des politiques monétaires non conventionnelles, le retour à des politiques industrielles pilotées par le Trésor et la priorité donnée au soutien des revenus du travail plutôt qu’aux valeurs d’actifs. Cet axe, esquissé dès la fin de l’année 2024, a été confirmé par la nomination de Kevin Warsh à la présidence de la Réserve fédérale.

Il s’agit donc d’une tentative historique de renverser non seulement les principes qui régissent depuis quarante ans l’économie américaine et ses relations avec le reste du monde, mais aussi l’équilibre du pouvoir exécutif américain, en renforçant encore le pouvoir fédéral face à celui des États fédérés. En somme, une transformation radicale de la société américaine est engagée.

En miroir, l’ouvrage interroge la capacité de réaction de l’Union européenne, ses fragilités et la mutation indispensable qu’elle doit entreprendre face à cette rupture. Face à une stratégie aussi claire qu’assumée, l’Union européenne doit s’affirmer. Mais en est-elle capable ? Ses dirigeants en ont-ils réellement la volonté ?

Un essai incisif pour comprendre, au-delà du tumulte, la logique d’une transformation majeure.

À propos de l’auteur

Cet article a été écrit en juillet 2026 par Hubert RODARIE (président d’honneur de l’Association française des investisseurs institutionnels — Af2i).

   ▶ Découvrir tous les articles de Hubert RODARIE

The Impact of Trump’s Presidency on Tesla and Tech Stocks

Hongting LIU

In this article, Hongting LIU (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2021-2022) shares her insight regarding the influence of Trump’s wining in the election of the US president in November, 2024 in the technology industries.

Tesla’s Stock Performance is outstanding during 2024 especially after the result of the election was released

Tesla’s stock exhibited significant volatility and momentum during Trump’s presidency:

Evolution of Tesla’s stock price.
Evolution of Tesla’s stock price
Source: Yahoo! Finance.

  • Election-Driven Surge: Following Trump’s re-election in 2024, Tesla’s stock surged nearly 13% in a single day due to investor optimism about pro-business policies.
  • Peaks and Corrections: By December 2024, Tesla’s stock reached a historic high of $479.8 per share but later adjusted to $379.28 in January 2025.
  • Trading Range Formation: The stock fluctuated between $380 and $480, reflecting divided sentiment on its future potential.

Reasons Behind Tesla’s Stock Surge

Trump may use pro-Business Policies like he did from 2017 to 2021

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency allows for an assessment of potential policies based on his previous term from January 2017 to January 2021. During his first administration, policies such as tax reforms, deregulation, and a pro-business stance were introduced. These measures aimed to foster investor confidence and support domestic industries. Corporate tax cuts and relaxed regulatory requirements provided particular advantages to high-growth sectors, including technology and green energy, benefiting companies like Tesla. The administration also emphasized economic nationalism and prioritized local industries. Policies aimed at reducing taxes and loosening employment regulations were designed to enhance the competitiveness of American businesses, particularly those reliant on research and development (R&D) and capital investment. Additionally, diplomatic and trade relationships with Middle Eastern countries were strengthened, resulting in energy agreements that supported collaboration on clean energy initiatives. These agreements promoted the adoption of renewable energy technologies and created opportunities for companies like Tesla to contribute to the modernization of energy infrastructure in the region.

The winning of Trump triggers the positive emotion to Elon’s businesses

Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, is considered to be an informal advisory role in Trump’s administration further bolstered Tesla’s growth trajectory. The victory of Trump gives the market the confidence in Elon’s companies. The global push for electric vehicles (EVs) gained momentum during this period, driven by government incentives and growing environmental awareness. As a leader in the EV industry, Tesla became a focal point for investors aligning with long-term global trends.

Future Trends in U.S. Tech Stocks

AI Integration

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to drive significant gains for tech companies. Tesla, leveraging AI in autonomous driving systems, stands to benefit from these developments.

Sustainability Focus

Global trends toward sustainability, including renewable energy and EV adoption, will continue to bolster companies like Tesla aligned with these priorities.

Regulatory Dynamics

Post-Trump regulatory scrutiny may increase, but the tech sector’s central role in innovation ensures resilience in the face of challenges.

Caution: Avoid Blindly Following Market Trends

While Tesla’s stock has delivered exceptional returns, its high volatility underscores the need for caution. Blindly chasing high-performing stocks can lead to financial losses, especially in speculative environments. In fact, from the middle of December 2024 to the January 2025, there is a volatility of the stock performance. The long term performance of Tesla should be estimated based on its annual report regarding its revenues, new AI technology, profits margins, energy & storage business growth, and also the demand and the competition of the global electric automobile market. We should not judge everything based on the emotion of market even though the emotion of the market should never be ignored.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s presidency marked a transformative period for the U.S. economy, particularly for the technology sector. Tesla’s growth trajectory reflects the broader trends in innovation and sustainability. Moving forward, technological advancements and global shifts toward sustainability will continue to shape the market. Strategic planning and prudent investment remain essential in navigating these complexities.

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Useful resources

Barron’s (January 23, 2025) “EV Charging Stocks Are Sliding. How Tesla Stands to Gain,” Barron’s, January 23, 2025

Barron’s (January 23, 2025) Tesla Stock Will Get Help From Trump, Believe Investors. But How?

The Guardian (January 27, 2025) Charles Koch’s network launches $20m campaign backing Trump tax breaks

CNN Business (April 15, 2019) Trump’s tax cuts: 4 ways they changed the American economy

Forbes (March 14, 2018) Why Trump’s Tax Reform Will Spark Continued Small Business Growth

About the author

The article was written in January 2025 by Hongting LIU (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2021-2022).