Bitcoin est un rêve, un idéal, un espoir

Bitcoin est un rêve, un idéal, un espoir

Jean-Marie Choffray

Dans cet article, Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY (Professeur Ordinaire Honoraire d’Informatique Décisionnelle à l’Université de Liège, PhD-77, Management Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) introduit son recent article “Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars”.

Personne ne sait précisément ce qu’est Bitcoin (avec « Bvle réseau). Au plan conceptuel, bitcoin (avec « b le jeton) est une chaîne, aussi indestructible que possible, de blocs d’enregistrements, aussi sécurisés que possible. Cette technologie nouvelle est donc un projet en cours dont personne ne peut préjuger l’avenir, quelle que soit la dimension considérée. Bitcoin deviendra ce que la majorité de ses utilisateurs décidera, et surtout aura le courage, d’en faire. Pour Satochi Nakamoto, c’était un rêve. Pour ceux qui travaillent aujourd’hui sur son code, c’est un idéal. Enfin, pour ceux qui l’utiliseront demain, c’est un espoir. L’Histoire de l’Humanité, une autre chaîne de blocs d’enregistrements – à l’évidence, non sécurisés et falsifiables ! – , s’apparente au reflet d’une montée de la Conscience individuelle et collective (cf. « Le phénomène humain » de Pierre Teilhard de Chardin). Bitcoin, c’est L’espoir maintenant (entretien entre Jean-Paul Sartre et Benny Lévy) : « une tension vers la fin, que l’échec, le tragique ne sauraient annuler… La valeur économique de bitcoin serait-elle le prix de la liberté ?

   ▶ Lire l’article Bitcoin est un rêve, un idéal, un espoir

Autres articles sur le blog

   ▶ Snehasish CHINARA Bitcoin: the mother of all cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY Mille quatre cent milliards de dollars

A propos de l’auteur

L’article a été rédigé en mars 2024 par Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY (Professeur Ordinaire Honoraire d’Informatique Décisionnelle à l’Université de Liège, PhD-77, Management Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

How to get crypto data

How to get crypto data

 Snehasish CHINARA

In this article, Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, 2022-2024) explains how to get crypto data.

Types of data

Number of coins

The information on the number of coins in circulation for a given currency is important to compute its market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the current price of the cryptocurrency by its circulating number of coins (supply). This metric gives a rough estimate of the cryptocurrency’s total value within the market and its relative size compared to other cryptocurrencies. A lower circulating supply often implies a greater level of scarcity and rarity.

For cryptocurrencies (unlike fiat money), the number of coins in circulation is given by a mathematical formula. The number of coins may be limited (like the Bitcoin) or unlimited (like Ethereum and Dogecoin) over time.

Cryptocurrencies with limited supplies, such as Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins, can be perceived as more valuable due to their finite nature. Scarcity can contribute to investor interest and potential price appreciation over time. A lower circulating supply might indicate the potential for future adoption and value appreciation, as the limited supply can create scarcity-driven demand, especially if the cryptocurrency gains more utility and usage.

Bitcoin’s blockchain also relies on a key equation to steadily allow new BTC to be introduced. The equation below gives the total supply of bitcoins:

Total supply of bitcoins

Figure 1 below represents the evolution of the supply of Bitcoins.

Figure 1. Evolution of the supply of Bitcoins

Source: computation by the author.

Market price of a coin

The market price of a cryptocurrency in the market holds crucial insights into how well the cryptocurrency is faring. Although not the sole factor, the market price significantly contributes to evaluating the cryptocurrency’s performance and its prospects. The market price of a cryptocurrency is a dynamic and intricate element that reflects a multitude of factors, both intrinsic and extrinsic. The gradual rise in market value over time indicates a willingness among investors and traders to offer higher prices for the cryptocurrency. This signifies a rising interest and strong belief in the project’s potential for the future. The market price reflects the collective sentiment of investors and traders. Comparing the market price of a cryptocurrency to other similar cryptocurrencies or benchmark assets like Bitcoin can provide insights into its relative strength and performance within the market. A rising market price can indicate increasing adoption of the cryptocurrency for various use cases. Successful projects tend to attract more users and real-world applications, which can drive up the price.

The value of cryptocurrencies in the market is influenced by a variety of elements, with each factor contributing uniquely to their pricing. One of the most significant influences is market sentiment and investor psychology. These factors can cause prices to shift based on positive news, regulatory changes, or reactive selling due to fear. Furthermore, the real-world implementation and usage of a cryptocurrency are crucial for its prosperity. Concrete use cases such as Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and international transactions play a vital role in creating demand and propelling price appreciation. Meanwhile, adherence to basic economic principles is evident in the supply-demand dynamics, where scarcity due to limited issuance, halving events, and token burns interact with the balance between supply and demand.

With the number of coins in circulation, the information on the price of coins for a given currency is also important to compute its market capitalization.

Figure 2 below represents the evolution of the price of Bitcoin in US dollar over the period October 2014 – August 2023. The price corresponds to the “closing” price (observed at 10:00 PM CET at the end of the month).

Figure 2. Evolution of the Bitcoin price
Evolution of the Bitcoin price
Source: computation by the author (data source: Yahoo! Finance).

Trading volume

Trading volume is crucial when assessing the health, reliability, and potential price movements of a cryptocurrency. Trading volume refers to the total amount of a cryptocurrency that is bought and sold within a specific time frame, typically measured in units of the cryptocurrency (e.g., BTC) or in terms of its equivalent value in another currency (e.g., USD).

Trading volume directly mirrors market liquidity, with higher volumes indicative of more liquid markets. This liquidity safeguards against drastic price fluctuations when trading, contrasting with low-volume scenarios that can breed volatility, where even a single substantial trade may disproportionately shift prices. Price alterations are most reliable and meaningful when accompanied by substantial trading volume. Price movements upheld by heightened volume often hold greater validity, potentially pointing to more pronounced market sentiment. When price surges parallel rising trading volume, it suggests a sustainable upward trajectory. Conversely, low trading volume amid rising prices may hint at a forthcoming correction or reversal. Scrutinizing the correlation between price oscillations and trading volume can uncover potential divergences. For instance, ascending prices coupled with dwindling trading volume may suggest a weakening trend.

Figure 3 below represents the evolution of the monthly trading volume of Bitcoin over the period October 2014 – July 2023.

Figure 3. Evolution of the trading volume of Bitcoin
Evolution of the trading volume of Bitcoin
Source: computation by the author (data source: Yahoo! Finance).

Bitcoin data

You can download the Excel file with Bitcoin data used in this post as an illsutration.

Download the Excel file with Bitcoin data

Python code

You can download the Python code used to download the data from Yahoo! Finance.

Python script to download Bitcoin historical data and save it to an Excel sheet:

import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd

# Define the ticker symbol and date range
ticker_symbol = “BTC-USD”
start_date = “2020-01-01”
end_date = “2023-01-01”

# Download historical data using yfinance
data = yf.download(ticker_symbol, start=start_date, end=end_date)

# Create a Pandas DataFrame
df = pd.DataFrame(data)

# Create a Pandas Excel writer object
excel_writer = pd.ExcelWriter(‘bitcoin_historical_data.xlsx’, engine=’openpyxl’)

# Write the DataFrame to an Excel sheet
df.to_excel(excel_writer, sheet_name=’Bitcoin Historical Data’)

# Save the Excel file
excel_writer.save()

print(“Data has been saved to bitcoin_historical_data.xlsx”)

# Make sure you have the required libraries installed and adjust the “start_date” and “end_date” variables to the desired date range for the historical data you want to download.

APIs

Calculating the total number of Bitcoins in circulation over time
Access – Bitcoin Blockchain data
By running a Bitcoin node or by using blockchain data providers like Blockchain.info, Blockchair, or a similar service.

Extract Block Data: Once you have access to the blockchain data, you would need to extract information from each block. Each block contains a record of the transactions that have occurred, including the creation (mining) of new Bitcoins in the form of a “Coinbase” transaction.

Calculate Cumulative Supply: You can calculate the cumulative supply of Bitcoins by adding up the rewards from each block’s Coinbase transaction. Initially, the block reward was 50 Bitcoins, but it halves approximately every four years due to the Bitcoin halving events. So, you’ll need to account for these halving in your calculations.

Code – python

import requests

# Replace ‘YOUR_API_KEY’ with your CoinMarketCap API key
api_key = ‘YOUR_API_KEY’

# Define the endpoint URL for CoinMarketCap’s API
url = ‘https://pro-api.coinmarketcap.com/v1/cryptocurrency/quotes/latest’

# Define the parameters for the request
params = {
‘symbol’: ‘BTC’,
‘convert’: ‘USD’,
‘CMC_PRO_API_KEY’: api_key
}

# Send the request to CoinMarketCap
response = requests.get(url, params=params)

# Parse the response JSON
data = response.json()

# Extract the circulating supply from the response
circulating_supply = data[‘data’][‘BTC’][‘circulating_supply’]

print(f”Current circulating supply of Bitcoin: {circulating_supply} BTC”)

## Replace ‘YOUR_API_KEY’ with your actual CoinMarketCap API key.

Why should I be interested in this post?

Cryptocurrency data is becoming increasingly relevant in these fields, offering opportunities for research, data analysis skill development, and even career prospects. Whether you’re aiming to conduct research, stay informed about the evolving financial landscape, or simply enhance your data analysis abilities, understanding how to access and work with crypto data is an asset. Plus, as the cryptocurrency industry continues to grow, this knowledge can open new career paths and improve your personal finance decision-making. In a rapidly changing world, diversifying your knowledge with cryptocurrency data acquisition skills can be a wise investment in your future.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

▶ Youssef EL QAMCAOUI Decentralised Financing

▶ Hugo MEYER The regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

Useful resources

APIs

CoinMarketCap Source of API keys and program

CoinGecko Source of API keys and Programs

CryptoNews Source of API keys and Programs

Data sources

Yahoo! Finance Historical data for Bitcoin

Coinmarketcap Historical data for Bitcoin

Blockchain.com Market Data and charts on Bitcoin history

About the author

The article was written in October 2023 by Snehasish CHINARA (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program – Master in Management, (2022-2024).

The effect of Elon Musk's Tweets on the Cryptocurrency Market

The effect of Elon Musk’s Tweets on the Cryptocurrency Market

Ines ILLES MEJIAS

In this article, Ines ILLES MEJIAS (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2020-2024) analyzes the effect of Elon Musk’s tweets on the cryptocurrency market and its link with the concept of market efficiency.

Who is Elon Musk?

Founder of SpaceX and Tesla, Elon Musk, is known to be one of the richest and most famous people in the world. He is known to be a “technological visionary”, especially working in companies which focus on innovation and technology. Elon Musk has currently over 120 million followers on Twitter, a social media platform which he is regularly active on to speak about his life, his business or give his opinion on a wide variety of topics, one of them being cryptocurrency. No surprises he likes Twitter so much that he chose to purchase this one for US$ 44 billion not so long time ago in 2022.

Why does Elon Musk have an impact on the crypto market?

The effect of Elon Musk on the crypto market seems to be explained by his tweets due to his persona, as he is also known to be a successful investor and one of the wealthiest people in the world in 2022.

His activity on Twitter seems to affect the prices and volumes of cryptocurrencies on the short-term, by looking at the price changes or volatility following his tweets. This is called the “Elon Musk Effect”. The two most known cryptocurrencies having been influenced by Elon Musk are the Bitcoin and the Dogecoin. Likewise, we know thanks to his tweets and affirmation in conferences that he currently owns three cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin.

Examples of the positive impact of Elon Musk’s tweets on the crypto market

Elon Musk’s tweets seem to have an influence in the variation of cryptocurrency prices.

December 2021: “Bitcoin is my safe word”

In December 2021, Elon Musk positively tweeted about the Bitcoin saying that it is his “safe word”. This made the value of Bitcoin increase largely as the graph below shows.

Figure 1. Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Bitcoin
 Tweet of Elon Musk 2021
Source: Source: Reuters

January 2022: Elon Musk shows he’s a Bitcoin supporter.

In January 2022, Elon Musk changed his Twitter bio by adding “#bitcoin” which caused the Bitcoin to increase its value by 20%.

Figure 2. Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Bitcoin
 Tweet of Elon Musk 2021
Source: Source: Blockchain Research Lab

Figure 3. Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Bitcoin
Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Bitcoin
Source: Source: Blockchain Research Lab

Moreover, the price of Dogecoin raised by more than 500% after he tweeted that it was his favorite cryptocurrency. For this he is also known to be the “Dogefather” or “King of Dogecoin”. He also tweeted that SpaceX will accept Dogecoin payments which again, made the value of one of his cryptocurrencies raise largely.

Figure 4. Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Dogecoin
Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Dogecoin
Source: Source: Blockchain Research Lab

Figure 5. Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Dogecoin
Elon Musk’s tweet effect on Dogecoin
Source: Source: Blockchain Research Lab

Examples of the negative impact of Elon Musk’s tweets on the crypto market

Elon Musk can have a positive but also a negative impact on the crypto market by creating its own up and downs. For instance, after his presence on Saturday Night Live in May 2021, the Dogecoin’s value fell 34%. This was shocking considering that it was predicted by many crypto enthusiasts that it would increase the Dogecoin’s value to US$ 1.

Also, after Musk called Dodgecoin to be a “hustle”, its price went down by more than 30%.

A last example I will add is of when Elon Musk tweeted a meme about breaking up with bitcoin on June 3. This caused the price of Bitcoin to decrease by 5%.

Figure 6. Tweet of Elon Musk on June 4, 2021
 Tweet of Elon Musk on June 4, 2021
Source: Twitter.

Impact of Elon Musk’s tweets on the cryptocurrency market

Figure 7. Impact of Elon Musk’s tweets on the cryptocurrency market
Impact of Elon Musk’s tweets on the cryptocurrency market
Source: Coinjournal.

Why did it interest me?

This topic really caught my attention as I’ve always been very interested in investing, although never had the courage to do so due to the potential loss of real money. So, when I heard about this virtual currency, I became interested in knowing more about it, and after some research I found out about the news regarding Elon Musk and his effect on these. It was surprising and shocking seeing how an individual can have so much power over something, especially the power of social media.

Link with market efficiency

There are three types of market efficiency: weak efficiency related to market data (prices and transaction volumes), semi-strong efficiency related to all public information (company accounts, analyst reports, etc.) and strong efficiency (all public as well as private information).

Given the market reaction after Elon Musk’s tweets, the market is definitely efficient in the semi-strong sense. By observing the market reaction before Elon Musk’s tweets, we may wonder if the market is also efficient in the strong sense…

Useful resources

Academic articles

Gupta, R.R., Arya, R.K., Kumar, J., Gururani, A., Dugh, R., Dugh, A. (2022). The Impact of Elon Musk Tweets on Bitcoin Price. In: Mandal, J.K., Hsiung, PA., Sankar Dhar, R. (eds) Topical Drifts in Intelligent Computing. ICCTA 2021. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 426. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0745-6_44

Business resources

Twitter Elon Musk

Bitcoin

DodgeCoin

Blockchain Research Lab

Joe Khalique-Brown (15/06/2021) The Elon Musk Bitcoin saga continues: BTC rallies 10% Coin Journal

Noel Randewich (08/02/2021) Musk’s Bitcoin investment follows months of Twitter talk Reuters.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Hugo MEYER The regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET The NFTs, a new gold rush?

About the author

The article was written in December 2022 by Ines ILLES MEJIAS (ESSEC Business School, Global BBA, 2020-2024).

The regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

The regulation of cryptocurrencies: what are we talking about?

Hugo MEYER

In this article, Hugo MEYER (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2021) presents the regulation of cryptocurrencies.

Introduction

The first cryptocurrency – Bitcoin – launched in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto had for ambition to “break the rules and change the world”.

Thirteen years later, cryptocurrency represents a 2$ trillion market, with an increasing institutional presence, from crypto hedge funds to large banks. Behind this bewildering evolution, public authorities lagged behind, slowly empowering with feverish regulation actions.

The lack of regulation in this burgeoning area has created an opening for boundless fraud and money laundering, forcing some countries to get to grips with the cryptocurrency’s pitfalls.

What are cryptocurrencies?

Cryptocurrencies are at the edge of revolutionizing the way we’ve been trading since thousands of years. By definition, a cryptocurrency is an encrypted, digital, and decentralized medium of exchange that allows two parties that could be located everywhere on the globe to transfer funds directly, without relying on any trusted third party.

Instead of being secured by public institutions and/or companies, these transfers are carried out on the Blockchain which is a “digital database or ledger containing information that can be simultaneously used and shared within a large decentralized, publicly accessible network”.

Example: To make it simple, let’s say that A wants to send money to B. This transaction is included in a ‘block’. This block is broadcasted to every member in the network, and then validated or not by them. Once validated, the block is added to the chain, triggering the money to move from A to B.

Figure 1. Process of transaction with the blockchain
Schema of the blockchain
Source: Institut des actuaires.

This distributed network provides an indelible and transparent record of transactions as the chain cannot be counterfeited. If someone tried to change any information contained in one block, the different parties of the network would not approve the transaction as they could check the whole history of the blockchain and compare it to the new one.

Thus, many cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero rely on public blockchains to allow transactions in complete security and transparency.

“I do think Bitcoin is the first money that has the potential to do something like change the world” – Peter THIEL.

What is the regulation about?

By definition, regulation tally with the act of controlling something, or enacting an official rule. What does it imply for cryptocurrencies?

A cryptocurrency is entirely defined by its creator, that must foremost determine its characteristics. This creation process is divided into three steps:

  • Pick or create its blockchain platform
  • Choose a consensus algorithm
  • Design the blockchain architecture.

His creator defines the rules around it, while the ecosystem built accordingly to these rules regulate it and make it functional. Once the crypto is launched, it is impossible to modify its architecture and the rules. In this way, a cryptocurrency cannot be regulated, even by his founder. Thus, authorities do not have any grip with cryptocurrencies in themselves. They are auto-regulated by their initial algorithms, and nothing else.

Thereby, what are we talking about when dealing with the regulation of cryptocurrency?

Cryptocurrencies are mainly exchanged through platforms called “exchanges” such as Coinbase, Binance or eToroX. The first existing regulation framework is the accessibility to these platforms. For most of them, requirements like providing its identity are requested, following the Know Your Customer (KYC) compliance.

Secondly, the regulatory framework for these platforms depends on where they are based. Each country has a different approach of cryptocurrency, meaning that the regulation can be different in any of them.

For example, cryptocurrency exchanges are legal in the United States and fall under the regulatory scope of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). Therefore, exchanges service providers must register with FinCEN, implement an anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) program, maintain appropriate records, and submit reports to the authorities. It does not mean their trading activities are regulated.

These requirements permit exchanges to operate as licensed Money Service Businesses (MSBs), leading regulators to focus on anti-money laundering (AML) and due diligence measures, but not trading (and all the aspects of market manipulation).

Given the lack of significant regulatory oversight of actual trading activity, it is not surprising to see many cryptocurrency exchanges carry out questionable activities, such as offering leverage to their clients and wash trading, during times of market instability. But these are not the only problems raised by the lack of regulation.

Why should exchanges be more regulated?

The blockchain is a recent technology, understood by a few. As regulation always comes after innovation, the crypto market has been sidelined by public authorities for many years. The question of regulating it has recently appeared in response to the many downsides incurred to cryptos.

Customer protection

When investing in cryptocurrencies, the customer is lacking protection. An investor could be facing fake websites, hacking, and platform bankrupts without any legal recourse to recover his money. These situations could never happen in a traditional investment as it is institutionally regulated. To become more secure, exchanges must follow the example of itBit, an US-based exchange oversighted by the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) and registered as a bank.

Illegal Financial flows & crime

Cryptocurrency can be used for illicit transactions and for laundering criminal proceeds that may or may not have started as cryptocurrency. These illicit transactions occur on the dark web, including the purchase/sale of illicit drugs and debit and credit card information. According to a study published in 2019 by Oxford Academics, 76$ billion of illegal activity per year involve bitcoin, which represents half of total Bitcoin transactions.

Cryptos can also be used for ransomware attacks, like the one that shut down the Colonial Pipeline in May 2021. This attack was one of many others high-profile instances of hackers seeking Bitcoin ransoms, that should tend to multiply in the upcoming years.

Price stability

Blockchain technology has increasingly become a speculative tool for investing and achieving high returns in the short term, leading to market volatility. These fast and unpredictable price changes also have a direct impact on the velocity, where more and more people hold their cryptocurrencies instead of selling or using them.

Plus, the volatility of cryptos prices may let the market suffer from illiquidity. The notion of liquidity for a financial asset refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold (without a strong price impact, e.g., limit implicit transaction costs).

Tax evasion

One of the first problem that arise from tax evasion is taxation. Many countries have their own regulatory framework, either taxing cryptos as an asset (Israel), a financial asset (Bulgaria), or even a foreign currency (Switzerland). Once the taxation rule found out, authorities will tackle another problem: The investors resistance to report their gains.

Taking the example of USA, authorities ask filers on their income tax forms – like any form of income – whether they received or made any transactions with cryptocurrency. However, third-party reporting in the sector is scarce; making it even more difficult to attribute gains to one natural person.

Thus, how can regulation allow the crypto market to take over these pitfalls?

Worldwide market regulation

“Bitcoin is not unregulated. It is regulated by algorithm instead of being regulated by government bureaucracies” – Andreas Antonopoulos

Despite being a global phenomenon, every country does not hang up with the same type of regulation.

First, some countries have expanded their laws on money laundering, counterterrorism, and organized crimes to include cryptocurrency markets, and require banks and other financial institutions that facilitate such markets to conduct all the due diligence requirements imposed under such laws. For instance, Australia and Canada recently enacted laws to bring cryptocurrency transactions and institutions that facilitate them under the ambit of money laundering and counter-terrorist financing laws.

Some jurisdictions have gone even further and imposed restrictions on investments in cryptocurrencies. Some countries – Algeria, Bolivia, Morocco, Vietnam – explicitly ban any and all activities involving cryptocurrencies. Qatar and Bahrain consider that their citizens are forbidden from engaging in any kind of activities involving cryptocurrencies locally but allow them to do so outside their borders.

There are also countries that, while not banning their citizens from investing in cryptocurrencies, impose indirect restrictions by hindering transactions involving cryptocurrencies, such as China, Iran, or Thailand.

A limited number of countries regulate initial coin offerings (ICOs), which use cryptocurrencies as a mechanism to raise funds. Of the jurisdictions that address ICOs, some (mainly China, Macau, and Pakistan) ban them altogether, while most tend to focus on regulating them.

When it comes to taxation, the challenge appears to be how to categorize cryptocurrencies and the specific activities involving them. This matters primarily because whether gains are categorized as income or capital gains invariably determines the applicable tax bracket. For instance, in Israel, cryptos gains are taxed as assets, while there are subject to income tax in Spain and Argentina.

Advocates of digital currencies say that accepting cryptocurrencies is much more relevant than rejecting it. For instance, El Salvador became the 7th of September 2021 the first country in the world to make Bitcoin a legal tender. One day after, the “Regulation of the Bitcoin Law” entered into force, that establishes standards of conducts supervised by the Superintendency of the Financial System (SSF), the equivalent of the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States or the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France. This regulation will bring much more protection to Bitcoin users, while setting up numerous programs in cybersecurity, anti-money laundering, and tax evasion.

Conclusion

As Bitcoin – and other cryptocurrencies – become more and more popular, regulation will have to step up altogether, despite asking extensive questions on its bounding by International Authorities.

Economic threat, exacerbated risks and investigation complications are all issues that can be counteracted by regulation laws on the crypto market. Central banks will play a major role in this governance, going along with their traditional missions such as ensuring price stability and a proper operating financial system.

Nevertheless, regulation may lead to underestimated consequences. As it goes on, crypto investment will progressively become “mainstream” and dismiss the first and most powerful investors. This trend might also push innovators to take a step back from it, thus decreasing the number of cryptocurrencies created and newly innovative blockchains.

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Alexandre VERLET Cryptocurrencies

Useful resources

Academic research

Sean, F. Jonathan, R K. Talis, P. 2019. Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How much illegal activity is financed through cryptocurrencies?” The Review of Financial Studies. Vol. 32, p. 1798-1853.

Business Analysis

L, S. 2016. Who is Satoshi Nakamoto, The Economist explains.

Thiemann, A. 2021. Cryptocurrencies: An empirical View from a Tax Perspective, JRC Working Papers on Taxation and Structural Reforms. No 12/2021, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville, JRC126109.

Global Legal Research Directorate. 2018. Regulation of Cryptocurrency Around the World. LL File No. 2018-016036 LRA-D-PUB-002438.

Ryan, H. 2021. U.S. Officials send mixed messages on crypto regulation. Here’s what it all means for investors. NextAdvisor.

American Overseas, 2021. Washington Monthly: Catching Bitcoin tax evaders.

Alexis, G. 2021. Crypto doesn’t have to enable tax cheats Bloomberg Opinion.

Douma, S. 2016. Bitcoin: The pros and cons of regulation. s1453297.

About the author

The article was written in March 2022 by Hugo MEYER (ESSEC Business School, Master in Strategy & Management of International Business (SMIB), 2020-2021).

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies

Alexandre VERLET

In this article, Alexandre VERLET (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2017-2021) explores explores the latest and most fashionable investment trend.

They are everywhere on the news, in (young) people’s daily conversations, and probably in a corner of your head if you have already invested a bit of money in them. Cryptocurrencies are a daily drama, as it allows people to make or lose big money in record time. Everyone’s heard of it, but few people actually understand where cryptos come from and how they work. You may not necessarily need that to invest in them in the short term, as simply following Elon Musk on twitter might be a quicker and more efficient way  to predict its evolution. But in the long run, and to understand the impact it will have on society, you need to know what’s going on. For some, it might become an actual currency in the coming years and will compete with the national currencies. For others, regulation will eventually tame cryptos and people will therefore lose interest in them. What’s for sure is that a public debate will arise at some point, and you might as well have the keys to understand cryptos so you can forge your own opinion. So here we go.

What is  a cryptocurrency?

In a nutshell, it’s a virtual currency. What makes it a completely different and original currency is that it is not centrally managed; in other terms, it is the user who has full control over the cryptocurrency in their possession (peer-to-peer). This process is done through the implementation of Blockchain technology: the latter is a distributed and decentralized data storage and transmission technology at its core. The most frequently used analogy is that of a ledger that is accessible to all, indestructible and unpublishable once the data is embedded in the system. Like cryptocurrency, the Blockchain also relies on peer to peer to operate in a decentralized manner. Note that Blockchain can be used for much more than cryptocurrency; being a database, this technology represents a potentially huge evolution in the way we (businesses) deal with data. However, it was with the advent of Bitcoin, the first of many cryptocurrencies, that the distributed blockchain was seen as a potential successor to existing storage technology. The main cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin- the world’s most widely used and legitimate cryptocurrency-, Ethereum – founded in 2015 and known for its enhanced architecture using “smart contracts”-, Litecoin – released in 2011, similar to Bitcoin but with a higher programmed supply limit (84 million units vs 21 million).

Where do cryptos come from?

Before cryptos as we know them were invented, some early cryptocurrency proponents already shared the goal of applying cutting-edge mathematical and computer science principles to solve what they perceived as practical and political shortcomings of “traditional” currencies. It goes back to the 1980s when an American cryptographer named David Chaum invented a “blinding” algorithm that allowed for secure, unalterable information exchanges between parties, laying the groundwork for future electronic currency transfers. Then, the late 1990s and early 2000s saw the rise of more conventional digital finance intermediaries, such as Elon Musk’s Paypal. But no true cryptocurrency emerged until the late 2000s when Bitcoin came onto the scene. Bitcoin is widely regarded as the first modern cryptocurrency, because it combined decentralized control, user anonymity, record-keeping via a blockchain, and built-in scarcity. It all began in 2008, when Satoshi Nakamoto (an anonymous person or group of people) published a white paper about the Bitcoin. Nakamoto then released Bitcoin to the public. In 2010, the very first Bitcoin purchase was made: an Internet user exchanged 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas. At today’s prices, that would be the equivalent of about 500 million euros: that’s a lot of money for a pizza. By late 2010, dozens of other cryptocurrencies started popping out as more and more people started to mine and exchange cryptos. It grew in legitimacy when it became accepted as a means of payment by major companies, such as WordPress, Microsoft or Tesla. As of May 2021, the cryptos’ market cap is $2 trillion.

How do cryptos work?

There are several concepts that you should know about in order to get how cryptos work. Cryptocurrencies use cryptographic protocols, or extremely complex code systems that encrypt sensitive data transfers, which make cryptos them virtually impossible to break, and thus to duplicate or counterfeit the protected currencies. These protocols also mask the identities of cryptocurrency users.Then the crypto’s blockchain records and stores all prior transactions and activity, validating ownership of all units of the currency at all times. Identical copies of the blockchain are stored in every node of the cryptocurrency’s software network — the network of decentralized server farms, run by miners, that continually record and authenticate cryptocurrency transactions. The term “miners” relates to the fact that miners’ work literally creates wealth in the form of brand-new cryptocurrency units. Miners serve as record-keepers for cryptocurrency communities, using vast amounts of computing power, often manifested in private server farms owned by mining collectives that comprise dozens of individuals. The scope of the operation is quite similar to the search for new prime numbers, which requires tremendous amounts of computing power. Miners’ work periodically creates new copies of the blockchain, adding recent, previously unverified transactions that aren’t included in any previous blockchain copy — effectively completing those transactions. Each addition is known as a block, which consist of all transactions executed since the last new copy of the blockchain was created. Sincce the cryptocurrencies’ supply and value are controlled by the activities of their users and highly complex protocols built into their governing codes, not the conscious decisions of central banks or other regulatory authorities, which is why cryptos are said to be decentralized. Although mining periodically produces new cryptocurrency units, most cryptocurrencies are designed to have a finite supply — a key guarantor of value. Generally, this means miners receive fewer new units per new block as time goes on. For instance, if current trends continue, observers predict that the last Bitcoin unit will be mined sometime around 2150.

Why are cryptocurrencies so successful?

You may be wondering why crypto-currencies are gaining so much momentum today. With no intrinsic value, and no commodity to fall back on, economically speaking it makes no sense for this market to reach such an astronomical price. There are two rationales that often come up in the argument for cryptocurrencies. On the one hand, the anonymity via cryptography provided by blockchain technology: as there is very little regulation in this industry yet, one can end up with astronomical amounts of money without necessarily having to pay taxes on it, as there is no centralized body to follow what is going on. The second reason is more sociological: since there are people mining and trading cryptocurrencies, the logic is that they must have value. The consequence is that other people join the rush, and so on until it becomes a global phenomenon. You could call it a crowd movement, or a 21st century digital gold rush.

But these two reasons don’t necessarily answer the question of why Bitcoin and all these other cryptocurrencies are valuable. To get a clear answer, we need to go back to the basics of economics: any value applied to a commodity or currency is subjective. That is, if we, as individuals, see value in it, the commodity in question has value. The snowball effect resulting from a group of people’s growing interest in a commodity is at the origin of any bubble, and from that point of view cryptos are a massive bubble. Which does not mean that it is a bad investment: after all, a bubble is a bubble when it blows up, but it might never happen.

Summary

To sum up, if you want to invest in cryptocurrencies, there are a couple of things you should consider. First, if you’re aiming for the long-term (if you believe cryptocurrencies will keep increasing in value as “deflationary currencies”) or the short-term (pure speculation). Second, you should examine the specific characteristics of the cryptos and see which best fits you in terms of anonymity, growth potential and liquidity. Last but not least, follow the latest regulation announcements on cryptos, such as central banks or governments comments on cryptos, which are a pretty good indicator of the crypto’s evolution on both the long and short term.

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About the author

Article written in July 2021 by Alexandre VERLET (ESSEC Business School, Master in Management, 2017-2021).