Government debt

In this article, Georges WAUBERT gives the reasons why governments issue debt.

In normal times, governments use debt (bills, notes and bonds) to cover expenses and finance investments that will create new wealth, which will make it possible to repay the debt. This is what companies do when they use credit to buy new machinery for example. It is also what public authorities do when they build schools, hospitals or roads that will increase the productive capacity of the country and improve the living conditions of its inhabitants. However, the interest for a state to go into debt could not be limited to this. What are the other reasons to go into debt?

Public debt allows the mobilization of private savings

The level of savings directly influences investment in the economy and, therefore, the level of consumption. However, there are many factors that can push savings away from their optimal level, i.e. the level that maximizes consumption. It is therefore necessary for a government to find solutions to adjust this level of savings. Recourse to debt is one of the solutions.

Indeed, recourse to debt is a means of mobilizing, in return for remuneration, the savings of individuals, and in particular those of households with sufficiently high incomes to save. Today, there are not enough borrowers who issue good quality assets. The proof is that interest rates are very low on public debt. Savers are competing with each other and accepting lower and lower yields for this type of savings medium. Thus, in a world of asset shortages, it is the state that will provide sufficient savings vehicles. The state is then faced with a dilemma: to provide adequate and safe savings vehicles and to increase taxes in order to pay the interest on new public debt.

Public debt helps limit fluctuations in production levels

As we have seen with the Covid-19 crisis, an economy can be confronted with one or more shocks that temporarily push the level of production away from its potential level. Such fluctuations represent a cost. Indeed, a higher volatility in the level of output translates into a lower growth rate. In addition, a temporary fall in output from its potential level can lead to the failure of long-term viable businesses.

Investments financed by debt can be used to limit the magnitude of changes in the level of output. Changes in government spending or tax obligations significantly affect the level of output. An increase in expenditure usually results in an increase in output. Thus, public debt is an effective way of stabilizing output. This is what happened during the 1980s and 1990s. Governments around the world used massive debt to support their economic activity. During the Covid-19 crisis, the “whatever it takes” approach saved many companies. However, it has also kept unprofitable companies on life support, which should have disappeared, due to a lack of hindsight.

Public debt is a redistribution within the present generations

Public debt is often presented as a burden to be borne by future generations. However, this statement is far from obvious. Indeed, it is very difficult to measure the extent of transfers between generations. Future generations will also benefit from part of the money borrowed today that will have been invested and distributed to households that will be able to save it and then pass it on to their children. Thus, it is difficult to assess the real burden of the debt for future generations.

What is more certain, however, is that the public debt is primarily a transfer within the households at the present time. The State borrows from an agent X to redistribute to an agent Y or to make an investment that will benefit an agent Z. Thus, from this point of view, the use of debt is a good tool for redistribution among households.

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About the author

Article written in July 2021 by Georges WAUBERT

In this article, Georges WAUBERT introduces you to government debt.

A government debt is a debt issued and guaranteed by a government. It is then owed in the form of bonds bought by investors (institutional investors, individual investors, other governments, etc.).

According to the OECD: “Debt is calculated as the sum of the following liability categories (as applicable): currency and deposits; debt securities, loans; insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts payable.”

Before the Covid-19 crisis, the government debt of all countries in the world was estimated at $53 trillion. According to the IMF, it is expected to rise from 83% to 96% of world GDP as a result of the crisis.

In order to better understand debt, it is necessary to go back to several points. How does a government issue debt? Who holds government debt? How is government debt measured?

How does a government issue debt?

There are two principal ways to issue bonds: syndication and auction.

Syndication

Syndication is the most common way to issue debt. It is when several financial institutions join together to ensure the placement of a bond with investors in order to reduce their risk exposure. However, since the 1980’s, governments tend to use the auction method.

Auction

The auction can be “open”, i.e. all direct participants in public securities auctions (credit institutions, management and intermediation companies, etc.) have the possibility of acquiring part of the security put up for auction. It can also be “targeted”, i.e. the issue is reserved only for the primary dealers – banks or other financial institutions that has been approved to trade securities – of the issuing State.

A few days before the planned date of an auction, the State makes an announcement, confirming, postponing or cancelling the operation. It also gives the characteristics of the securities to be issued, i.e. the type of securities, the maturity and the amount it wishes to raise. Buyers can then submit several bids, each specifying the desired quantity and price. The issue lines are then auctioned to the highest bidders. The higher the demand is, the lower the issue rate is.

Auction is used because it provides investors, among other things, with transparency and free competition on an investment product with an attractive benefit in relation to a low risk level.

Each country that issues bonds uses different terms for them. UK government bonds, for example, are referred to as gilts. In the US, they are referred to as treasuries: T-bills (that expire in less than one year), T-notes (that expire in one to ten years) and T-bonds (that expire in more than ten years). In France, the government issues short-term liabilities (“Bons du Trésor”) and long-term liabilities (“OAT for “Obligations Assimilables du Trésor”) with maturity between 2 and 50 years.

Who holds government debt?

Government debt can be broken down into domestic and external debt depending on whether the creditors are residents or non-residents.

Domestic debt

Domestic debt refers to all claims held by economic agents (households, companies, financial institutions) resident in a sovereign state on that state. It is mostly denominated in the national currency. A government can call for savings, but savings used to finance the deficit can no longer be used to finance private activity and in particular productive investment. This is known as the crowding-out effect. A government must therefore deal with this limit.

External debt

External debt refers to all debts owed to foreign lenders. A distinction must be made between gross external debt (what a country borrows from abroad) and net external debt (the difference between what a country borrows from abroad and what it lends abroad). A level of debt that is too high can be dangerous for a country. In the event of fluctuations in the national currency, the interest and principal amounts of the external debt, if denominated in foreign currency, can quickly become a burden leading to default.

The case of France

In France, non-residents are the main holders of French public debt. They hold 64% of the bonds issued by the government. They are institutional investors, but also sovereign investment funds, banks and even hedge funds. In addition, as regards domestic debt, French insurance companies hold nearly 20% of French securities. They are used for life insurance investments. Finally, French banks and French mutual funds hold 10% and 2% respectively.

How to measure government debt?

While the French debt has risen from 2000 billion euros in 2014 to 2700 billion in 2021, the debt burden has fallen from 40 billion to 30 billion. What do these two ways of looking at a country’s debt mean?

In the European Union, the current measure of public debt is the one adopted by the Maastricht Treaty. It takes into account the nominal amount borrowed. This is a relevant criterion for measuring the government’s budgetary misalignments, i.e. its financing needs. It also makes it possible to introduce debt rules: the debt must be less than 60% of GDP.

Another way of measuring debt is to take into account the interest charges on public debt. This criterion makes it possible to account for the cost of the debt and not its amount. It is this criterion that must be considered in order to anticipate future financing needs, to plan taxes and interest charges in the government budget.

Useful resources

Rating agencies

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch Rating

Related posts on the SimTrade blog

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Why do governments issue debt?

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond valuation

   ▶ Georges WAUBERT Bond markets

   ▶ Bijal GANDHI Credit Rating

   ▶ Jayati WALIA Credit risk

About the author

Article written in June 2021 by Georges WAUBERT (ESSEC Business School, i>Grande Ecole – Master in Management, 2019-2023).