Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

November 26, 2022 by Aamey MEHTA

Market efficiency: the case study of Yes bank in India

In this article, Aamey MEHTA (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance, Singapore campus, 2022-2023) explains the key financial concept of market efficiency.

What is Market Efficiency?

An informationally efficient market is a market in which the current price of a security fully, rationally, and quickly reflects all information of that security

We can measure the efficiency of a market by observing the lag between the time that information is received to the time that the security’s price reflects this information. If there is a large lag, then traders can make use of this information to generate positive returns. For efficient markets the price of a security should not be affected by information that is already expected. The changes in price should be due to new information, i.e., information that was unexpected. For example: if a company’s earning is expected to be $10M (market consensus) and their earnings are $10M, this should not cause a change in the company’s price. However, if the earnings were $20M or $5M, then the shock news will cause the stock price to move upwards or downwards.

Market efficiency and investment styles

In a perfectly efficient market investors should use a passive investment strategy. This is because in such a market it is not possible to beat the market. In efficient markets investors can expect the market value of an assets to be equal to its intrinsic value. Using an active strategy will result in underperformance compared to the market due to transaction costs. However, if the market is inefficient, then active investment strategies can result in a profit for the investor.

What factors affect market efficiency?

Generally, markets are neither perfectly efficient or inefficient. The degree of efficiency depends on the following factors: the number of market participants, the availability of Information, and impediments to trading.

Number of market participants

The higher the number of market participants the more efficient the market is. Market participants include investors, traders, analysts, and people who follow the market. The number of participants can vary over time and across countries. Some countries prevent foreigners from trading on their markets which reduces market efficiency.

Availability of Information

The more information that is available to the investors, more efficient the market is. The easier and cheaper it is to access the information the more efficient the market will be. The access to information should not favor one group over another and should be equally available to all participants. If participants have access to material nonpublic information about the firm they should not trade on this information as this would constitute insider trading which is illegal. In developed markets there is abundance of information, and the markets are efficient. Example: New York Stock Exchange. In less developed markets the availability of information is lower and hence markets are less efficient. Example: the forwards market.

Impediments to trading

Arbitrage refers to buying an asset in one market and simultaneously selling it in another market at a higher price. This buying and selling will continue till price in both the markets are the same and arbitrage is no longer possible. Impediments to trading such as high transaction costs will restrict arbitrage opportunities and allow for some mispricing of assets.

Short selling prevents assets from being overvalued and hence short selling improves market efficiency. Restrictions on short selling, such as inability to borrow stock cheaply will reduce efficiency.

Transaction and information costs

If the cost of gathering information, analysis and trading is more than the cost of trading misvalued assets markets will be inefficient. If after deducting costs, there is no risk adjusted returns to be made from trading based on publicly available information then the markets are said to be efficient.

Types of market efficiency

Weak form of market efficiency

This form of market efficiency states that current security prices fully reflect all currently available security market data. Thus, past price and volume information will have no predictive power over the future direction of security prices because price changes will be independent from one period to the next.

Semi-strong form of market efficiency

This form holds that security prices rapidly adjust without bias to the arrival of new public information. Current security prices fully reflect all publicly available information. This form says that security prices include all past security market and non-market information available to the public. Examples: Information on the financials reports published by the company, news about the company.

Strong form of market efficiency

This form states that security prices fully reflect all information from both public and private sources. The strong form includes all types of information: past security market information, public and private (insider) information. This means that no group of investors has monopolistic access to information relevant to the formation of prices and no one should be able to generate positive risk adjusted returns.

What do we know about the efficiency of the market?

Fama

Fama, in his paper Efficient Market Hypothesis defined a market to be “informationally efficient” if prices at each moment incorporate all available information about future values.

The efficient market hypothesis states:

Current prices incorporate all available information and expectations.
Current prices are the best approximation of intrinsic value.
Price changes are due to unforeseen events.
“Mispricings” do occur but not in predictable patterns that can lead to consistent outperformance.

The efficient market hypothesis does not state:

All investors are rational.
Prices are always right.
Prices should be stable.
Professional money managers can’t earn higher than market returns.

The Grossman-Stiglitz paradox

This paradox was proposed by Stanford Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz. They argue that perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse.

Investors that purchase index funds or ETFs benefit at the expense of investors who pay for financial services either indirectly or directly via investing in actively managed funds.

Case study: yes bank

Yes Bank is an Indian Bank founded in 2004 by Rana Kapoor and Ashok Kapur, headquartered in Mumbai, India.

Yes bank is a private sector bank. In March 2020, Yes Bank faced a historical crisis. There are various reasons that led Yes bank to this crisis, they are, there were a large number of bad loans given by banks and depositors have withdrawn large numbers of amounts from the bank. There was no balance between the loan sheet and the depositors’ sheet. RBI put a 30 days moratorium on Yes Bank to save it.
A major effect of the yes bank crisis was that there was a big chance that other financial institutions could collapse. But the Reserve Bank of India took initiative and saved Yes Bank from major collapse.

In May 2020 shares of Yes Bank Ltd. fell as much as 84.65 percent intraday to Rs 5.65 apiece—the lowest on record—but pared some of the losses to traded 51.63 percent lower at Rs 17.80. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1,450 points and NSE Nifty 50 slipped below 10,900. This, after the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday evening superseded the board of the lender and imposed curbs on its operations for a month.

stock chart of yes bank
Logo of Wells Fargo
Source: internet.

Useful resources

Academic resources

Fama E. (1970) Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of Finance, 25,383-417.

Fama E. (1991) Efficient Capital Markets: II Journal of Finance, 46, 1575-617.

Grossman S.J. and J.E. Stiglitz (1980) On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets The American Economic Review, 70, 393-408.

Business resources

Yes bank

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Aamey MEHTA (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance, Singapore campus, 2022-2023)

My experience as a credit analyst at Wells Fargo

November 26, 2022 by Aamey MEHTA

My experience as a credit analyst at Wells Fargo

In this article, Aamey MEHTA (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance, Singapore campus, 2022-2023) shares his experience as a credit analyst at Wells Fargo.

The Company

Wells Fargo is the fourth largest bank in the United States in terms of total assets, with $1.9 trillion AUM. It is headquartered in San Francisco. On February 2, 2018, account fraud by the bank resulted in the Federal Reserve barring Wells Fargo from growing its nearly $2 trillion-asset base any further until the company fixed its internal problems to the satisfaction of the Federal Reserve. In September 2021, Wells Fargo incurred further fines from the United States Justice Department charging fraudulent behavior by the bank against foreign-exchange currency trading customers. Under the leadership of the current CEO Charles W. Scharf the bank is aiming to stabilize and improve the bank’s public image and I was able to witness the transition first hand as well as the CEO’s vision and mission for the company.

I worked in the Subscription Finance Group (SFG) which is under the Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) department of the organization. The team was newly set up in India to provide support to the main team in the US and UK. This gave me exposure to several different aspects of the business and allowed me to learn a lot.

What is Subscription Finance?

Subscription credit facilities typically take the form of a senior secured revolving credit facility secured by the unfunded capital commitments of the fund’s investors. The facilities are subject to a borrowing base determined based on the value of the pledged commitments of investors satisfying specified eligibility requirements, with advance rates based on the credit quality of the relevant investors.

The purpose of subscription credit facilities is usually to provide liquidity for the fund on a faster basis than calling for capital contributions. Under a credit facility, borrowed funds typically can be made available within a day, while under a typical limited partnership agreement, capital calls may take 10 business days or more.

Logo of Wells Fargo

Source: Wells Fargo.

My Internship

I worked at Wells Fargo full time for 16 months from March 2021 to July 2022 and was mainly involved in the credit risk and analysis of the various clients of the bank (investment funds like hedge funds and real estate funds). Subscription Finance is a niche part of finance which refers to the process by which investors sign up and commit to investing in a financial instrument, prior to the actual closing of the purchase. Wells Fargo lent money to different investment funds. The collateral was the uncalled capital that these funds could draw from their respective investors. Wells Fargo would internally review the investors in each fund and come up with a risk profile for each client. The fees for these loans were LIBOR plus a negotiate premium.

My missions

Part of the team that undertook the task of preparing an Annual Review credit memo for the first time in India as well as teaching 7 new members of the team on how the process is done.
Co-Led the setup and work of the 5-member Deal Structuring Squad which undertook the task of understanding the terms that were included in various credit memos and educating the rest of the 25- member team on what each data point meant and where this information was sourced from.
Led the team that undertook the process of preparing and analyzing the FX Portfolio Overview File every week and established a reporting framework with the US team lead. The team highlighted and resolved 2 key errors that were previously overlooked.
Part of the Portfolio Overview team that undertook the preparation of the daily Portfolio Overview File. The team analyzed the daily reports and highlighted any discrepancies that arose. The reports generated were distributed firm-wide.
Completed Financial Spreading for 46 deals every quarter.

Required skills and knowledge

For the role I needed to have a working knowledge of how credit ratings are relevant during due diligence of a company. I also needed to have basic finance knowledge of how loans are priced and how hedge funds and other investment funds make money. However, the most important skills that were needed were those of ethics and compliance. As we were working with sensitive and private information it was of utmost importance that we were in compliance with the banks guidelines and did not violate any compliance standards.

What I have learnt

My full-time role taught me how hedge funds and large asset managers set up their different funds. It was insightful to learn about the different structures of the various and how they differ across geographies.

Another important learning was how different asset managers have different funds. The funds have different investment strategies such as real estate and each strategy would have different terms and different credit terms to analyze and look at.

There were several soft skills that I learnt too. The biggest one being communication. We were constantly in touch with the team in the US and liaising with them across different time zones to schedule calls and trainings was a new experience for me.

During this job I was also able to significantly improve my excel skills and understanding of several functions. This helped to increase my efficiency at my role and make some files more functional for the organization.

Three key financial concepts

Here are three useful concepts I used during my job at Wells Fargo.

Interest Rate Pricing

During my time working at Wells Fargo, I learnt that LIBOR was no longer the benchmark that was going to be used to determine pricing. The market was transitioning to a new rate called SONIA. SONIA is rate based on the actual overnight rate in active and liquid wholesale cash and derivatives market which makes it more robust and less volatile than LIBOR. The key difference is that LIBOR is forward-looking – it is agreed at the start of an interest period. SONIA is backward-looking – it cannot be determined until the end of an agreed interest period. This means that borrowers will no longer have upfront certainty about the amount of their interest payments and will require the calculations of the interest due at the end of the period.

Sovereign Immunity

Some of the clients of the bank were government backed funds and institutions. For example, a client was Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), which is the investment arm of the Government of Abu Dhabi and had $829 Billion of AUM as of 2022. These clients had sovereign immunity. Sovereign immunity refers to the fact that government cannot be sued. In the USA this is particularly relevant in the state of Texas. The main learning point was how banks like Wells Fargo treat such special entities, that is to say how it defines the different credit terms for these entities and how it takes into account for the fact that there is no recourse on such loans (due the sovereign immunity of these entities).

Credit Rating

I learnt that the credit rating analysis done by different agencies such as S&P and Moody’s, do not use the same approach. Often the ratings provided by both agencies may vary. The bank used to collate ratings from these two rating agencies for the same entity. Based on the ratings the bank would use an internal credit rating system to provide three different scores across three different categories for the entity. These scores fell into different bands as defined by the bank’s policy. Based on which band they fell into; different terms were offered to the clients and different negotiation was done. For example, a client that had a lower score across the categories would be offered more flexibility and better terms. The credit ratings were also assigned to the various investors of the fund as they were to be used as collateral while availing the loan which resulted in extensive due diligence.

Useful resources

Wells Fargo

S&P Global (rating)

S&P Global (Capital IQ)

Moody’s

About the author

The article was written in November 2022 by Aamey MEHTA (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance, Singapore campus, 2022-2023).