Valuation in Niche Sectors: Using Trading Comparables and Precedent Transactions When No Perfect Peers Exist

Ian DI MUZIO

In this article, Ian DI MUZIO (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance (MiF), 2025–2027) discusses how valuation practitioners use trading comparables and precedent transactions when no truly “perfect” peers exist, and how to build a defensible valuation framework in Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) for hybrid or niche sectors.

Context and objective

In valuation textbooks, comparable companies and precedent transactions appear straightforward: an analyst selects a sector in a database, obtains a clean peer group, computes an EV/EBITDA range, and applies it to the target. In practice, this situation is rare.

In real M&A mandates, the target often operates at the intersection of several activities (e.g. media intelligence, marketing technology, and consulting), across multiple geographies, with competitors that are mostly private or poorly disclosed.

Practitioners typically rely on databases such as Capital IQ, Refinitiv, PitchBook or Orbis. While these tools are powerful, they often return peer groups that are either too broad (mixing unrelated business models) or too narrow (excluding relevant private competitors). Private peers, even when strategically closest, usually cannot be used directly because they do not publish sufficiently detailed or standardized financial statements.

The objective of this article is therefore to provide an operational framework for valuing companies in such conditions. It explains:

  • What trading comparables and precedent transactions really measure;
  • Why “perfect” peers almost never exist in practice;
  • How to construct and clean a comps set in hybrid sectors;
  • How to use precedent transactions when listed peers are scarce;
  • How to combine these tools with discounted cash-flow (DCF) analysis and professional judgment.

The target reader is a student or junior analyst who already understands the intuition behind EV/EBITDA (enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation), but wants to understand how experienced deal teams reason when databases do not provide obvious answers.

Trading comparables: what they measure in practice

Trading comparables rely on the idea that listed companies with similar risk, growth and operating characteristics should trade at comparable valuation multiples.

The construction of trading multiples follows three technical steps.

First, equity value is converted into enterprise value (EV):

Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Net Debt + Preferred Equity + Minority Interests – Non-operating Cash and Investments.

This adjustment ensures consistency between the numerator (EV) and the denominator (operating metrics such as EBITDA), which reflect the performance of the entire firm.

Second, the denominator is selected and cleaned. Common denominators include LTM or forward revenue, EBITDA or EBIT. EBITDA is typically adjusted to exclude non-recurring items such as restructuring costs, impairments or exceptional litigation expenses.

Third, analysts interpret the distribution of multiples rather than relying on a simple average. Dispersion reflects differences in growth, margins, business quality and risk. When peers are imperfect, this dispersion becomes a key analytical input.

EV/EBITDA distribution
Figure 1 – Distribution of EV/EBITDA multiples for a selected peer group in the media and marketing technology space. The figure is based on a simulated dataset constructed to mirror typical outputs from Capital IQ and Refinitiv for educational purposes. The target company is positioned within the range based on its growth, margin and risk profile.

Precedent transactions: what trading comps do not capture

Precedent transactions analyse valuation multiples paid in actual M&A deals. While computed in a similar way to trading multiples, they capture additional economic dimensions, as explained below.

Transaction multiples typically include a control premium, as buyers obtain control over strategy and cash flows. They also embed expected synergies and strategic considerations, as well as prevailing credit-market conditions at the time of the deal.

From a technical standpoint, transaction enterprise value is reconstructed at announcement using the offer price, fully diluted shares, and the target’s net debt and minority interests. Careful alignment between balance-sheet data and LTM operating metrics is essential.

Trading vs precedent multiples
Figure 2 – Comparison between trading comparables and precedent transaction multiples (EV/EBITDA). The illustration is based on a simulated historical sample consistent with PitchBook and Capital IQ deal data. Precedent transactions typically trade at higher multiples due to control premia, synergies and financing conditions.

Why perfect peers almost never exist

Teaching in business schools often presents comparables as firms with identical sector, geography, size and growth. In real M&A practice, this situation is exceptional.

Business models are frequently hybrid. A single firm may combine SaaS subscriptions, recurring managed services and project-based consulting, each with different margin structures and risk profiles.

Accounting reporting rules, such as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) or US GAAP, further reduce comparability. Differences in revenue recognition (IFRS 15), lease accounting (IFRS 16) or capitalization of development costs can materially affect reported EBITDA.

Finally, many relevant competitors are private or embedded within larger groups, making transparent comparison impossible.

Building a defensible comps set in hybrid sectors

When similarity is weak, the analysis should begin with a decomposition of the target’s business model. Revenue streams are separated into functional blocks (platform, services, consulting), each benchmarked against the most relevant public proxies.

Peer groups are therefore modular rather than homogeneous. Geographic constraints are relaxed progressively, prioritising business-model similarity over local proximity.

Comps workflow
Figure 3 – Bottom-up workflow for constructing a defensible comps set in niche sectors. The figure illustrates the analytical sequence used by practitioners: business-model decomposition, peer clustering, financial cleaning and positioning within a valuation range.

When comparables fail: the role of DCF

When no meaningful peers exist, discounted cash-flow (DCF) analysis becomes the primary valuation tool.

A DCF estimates firm value by projecting free cash flows and discounting them at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which reflects the opportunity cost for both debt and equity investors.

Key valuation drivers include unit economics, operating leverage and realistic assumptions on growth and margins. Sensitivity analysis is essential to reflect uncertainty.

Corporate buyers versus private equity sponsors

Corporate acquirers focus on strategic fit and synergies, while private equity sponsors are constrained by required internal rates of return (IRR) and money-on-money multiples (MOIC).

Despite different objectives, both rely on the same principle: when comparables are imperfect, the narrative behind the multiples matters more than the multiples themselves.

How to communicate limitations effectively

From the analyst’s perspective, the key is transparency. Clearly stating the limitations of the comps set and explaining the analytical choices strengthens credibility rather than weakening conclusions.

Useful resources

Damodaran, A. (NYU), Damodaran Online.

Rosenbaum, J. & Pearl, J. (2013), Investment Banking: Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions, Wiley.

Koller, T., Goedhart, M. & Wessels, D. (2020), Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, McKinsey & Company, 7th edition.

About the author

Written in December 2025 by Ian DI MUZIO, ESSEC Business School.

My Internship Experience at ISTA Italia as an In-House M&A Intern

Ian DI MUZIO

In this article, Ian DI MUZIO (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance (MiF), 2025–2027) shares his professional experience as an In-House M&A Intern within the Corporate Development team at ISTA Italia in Milan (May–July 2025).

Introduction

Joining ISTA Italia placed me at the intersection of energy efficiency, smart metering, and consolidation strategy in a sector undergoing deep regulatory and technological transformation. Over twelve demanding weeks, I supported live buy-and-build workstreams — screening targets, reconstructing trial balances, reclassifying financials, building valuation files, and drafting investment notes for the CEO and Board. The mandate was clear yet challenging: sharpen our thesis on distributed energy services and translate market complexity into clear, numbers-backed recommendations. This post recaps the journey — how we framed the Italian energy-efficiency landscape, which analytical approaches proved most useful, what I built and learned, and why in-house M&A provides a uniquely entrepreneurial vantage point within an operating company.

About ISTA

ISTA is a leading provider of sub-metering, heat cost allocation, and building-level energy services. The company equips multi-apartment and commercial buildings with systems and data platforms that measure and manage consumption of heat, water, and electricity, enabling fair billing, reduced waste, and compliance with European directives. In Italy, ISTA collaborates with condominium administrators, facility managers, and energy service companies (ESCOs) to modernize metering infrastructure and digitalize building operations.

Logo of ISTA Italia.
Logo of ISTA Italia
Source: the company.

Industry Context: Energy Efficiency, Data, and Regulation in Italy

Italy’s building stock is among the oldest in Europe, making energy efficiency a national priority. European initiatives such as the “Fit for 55” package and the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive drive the transition toward sub-metering, remote reading, and transparent billing. At the same time, municipalities are deploying smart-city technologies using NB-IoT and LoRaWAN networks to collect real-time data. To analyze this complex environment, I applied a PESTEL framework — mapping Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal forces. Success in this market depends on combining reliable hardware, user-friendly software, and strong financial discipline — integrating technology with capital efficiency.

From Thesis to Pipeline: Market Research and Strategic Filters

Within this context, I helped refresh ISTA’s acquisition thesis around smart metering and energy analytics. Together with a senior manager, I developed a structured screening funnel to evaluate nearly 180 potential acquisition targets across Italy. We then shortlisted 24 firms based on governance, service mix, and integration potential. Each company profile became a strategic decision tool, anticipating negotiation levers such as margin structure, contractual terms, and capital requirements. This process taught me how strategy, finance, and market intelligence converge during the earliest stages of M&A execution.

Hands-On Experience

My tasks were diverse and highly practical. I reclassified over one hundred sets of financial statements into a standardized format to achieve comparability across targets. I reconstructed several trial balances from incomplete ledgers, validated earnings adjustments, and built valuation models including discounted cash flow (DCF) analyses, trading and transaction multiples, and scenario testing. I also produced concise investment notes for management, synthesizing quantitative findings into strategic insights — identifying the drivers of return, integration pain points, and KPIs for potential earn-out mechanisms. This hands-on exposure to data reconstruction and financial storytelling strengthened my ability to produce decision-grade analysis under time constraints.

Analytical Tools and Live Workstreams

During my internship, I developed several analytical frameworks that improved the rigor of our evaluations. A churn-adjusted DCF captured contract decay and renewal patterns, while a working-capital flywheel model clarified how billing and collection cycles affected liquidity. I designed route density metrics to measure field efficiency, translating operational realities into quantitative signals of profitability. Finally, risk normalization models allowed us to calibrate warranty provisions in small-sample contexts. These frameworks converged in a live acquisition project — internally called “Project Hydra” — which involved a Northern Italian operator with 120,000 meters and a strong service base. I built revenue bridges, synergy trees, and preliminary integration plans, directly contributing to the non-binding offer and subsequent strategic blueprint.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape combined OEM-affiliated service providers, ESCOs and facility managers, and regional “hidden champions”. Our benchmarking highlighted that long-term advantage stems less from product design than from operational density, data integration, and disciplined capital allocation. ISTA’s hybrid model — combining hardware-agnostic technology with robust field operations — positions it strongly within a fragmented yet consolidating market.

Beyond the Model: Stakeholders and Storytelling

In-house M&A is not a spectator role but an immersive process in which numbers must meet narratives. I joined vendor calls, prepared Q&A scripts, and defended assumptions before operational leaders. Two insights stood out. First, translating finance into field terms matters: a two-point margin improvement only gains meaning when expressed as time saved or service calls avoided. Second, stakeholder empathy is critical: condominium administrators prioritize reliability and transparency as much as pricing. Learning to align financial rationale with human incentives was among the most valuable aspects of the experience.

What I Learned

The internship taught me to build financial models that withstand operational scrutiny and to integrate compliance, interoperability, and human factors into acquisition planning. I learned that synergies materialize not in spreadsheets but in coordinated execution and communication. Ultimately, working within an operating company reshaped my understanding of M&A: the challenge is not merely valuing an asset but ensuring it thrives after acquisition.

Conclusion

My time at ISTA Italia deepened my appreciation for how valuation, strategy, and integration interlock in practice. I left with a sharper eye for recurring-revenue quality, a stronger grasp of energy-efficiency economics, and a greater respect for the intersection between regulation, technology, and field execution. Above all, I learned how to transform complex, fragmented data into clear, actionable insights that drive real-world decisions.

Why should I be interested in this post?

This post offers business students a concrete view of how corporate development operates within a dynamic, regulated industry. It demonstrates how in-house M&A blends strategy, operations, and finance, and how analytical precision translates into strategic advantage. For students interested in corporate finance, private equity, or industrial strategy, it illustrates the value of bridging numbers with narrative, and modeling with execution.

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Useful resources

ISTA Official Website

European Commission Fit for 55 Package

ARERA – Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy

Initial Learn With Me (2024) Understanding Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) in Smart Grid System

About the author

The article was written in November 2025 by Ian DI MUZIO (ESSEC Business School, Master in Finance (MiF), 2025–2027).