{"id":9682,"date":"2023-01-07T20:57:36","date_gmt":"2023-01-07T19:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=9682"},"modified":"2026-01-27T22:45:42","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T22:45:42","slug":"moments-distribution-statistique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/moments-distribution-statistique\/","title":{"rendered":"Moments d&#8217;une distribution statistique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/shengyu-zheng-39878810b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"padding: 5px;\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/img_SimTrade_Photo1_Shengyu_Zheng.jpg\" alt=\"Shengyu ZHENG\" width=\"133\" align=\"right\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dans cet article, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/shengyu-zheng-39878810b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shengyu ZHENG<\/a> (ESSEC Business School, <i>Grande Ecole<\/i> Program &#8211; Master in Management, 2020-2023) pr\u00e9sente les quatre premiers moments d\u2019une distribution statistique : la moyenne, la variance, la skewness et la kurtosis.<\/p>\n<h2>Variable al\u00e9atoire<\/h2>\n<p>Une variable al\u00e9atoire est une variable dont la valeur est d\u00e9termin\u00e9e d\u2019apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9alisation d\u2019un \u00e9v\u00e9nement al\u00e9atoire. Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, la variable (X) est une fonction mesurable depuis un ensemble de r\u00e9sultats (\u03a9) \u00e0 un espace mesurable (E).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">X : \u03a9 \u2192 E<\/p>\n<p>X est une variable al\u00e9atoire r\u00e9elle \u00e0 condition que l\u2019espace mesurable (E) soit, ou fasse partie de, l\u2019ensemble des nombres r\u00e9els (\u211d).<\/p>\n<p>Je pr\u00e9sente un exemple avec la rentabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un investissement dans l&#8217;action Apple. La figure 1 ci-dessous repr\u00e9sente la s\u00e9rie temporelle de la rentabilit\u00e9 journali\u00e8re de l&#8217;action Apple sur la p\u00e9riode allant de novembre 2017 \u00e0 novembre 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Figure 1. S\u00e9rie temporelle de rentabilit\u00e9s de l\u2019action Apple.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/img_1_rentablite.png\" alt=\"S\u00e9rie de rentabilit\u00e9\" width=\"600\" \/><br \/>\nSource : calcul par l\u2019auteur (donn\u00e9es : Yahoo Finance).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Figure 2. Histogramme des rentabilit\u00e9s de l\u2019action Apple.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/img_2_histogramme_rentablite.png\" alt=\"Histogramme de rentabilit\u00e9\" width=\"600\" \/><br \/>\nSource : calcul par l\u2019auteur (donn\u00e9es : Yahoo Finance).<\/p>\n<h2>Moments d\u2019une distribution statistique<\/h2>\n<p>Le moment d\u2019ordre r \u2208 \u2115 est un indicateur de la dispersion de la variable al\u00e9atoire X. Le moment ordinaire d\u2019ordre r est d\u00e9fini, s\u2019il existe, par la formule suivante :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">m<sub>r<\/sub> = \ud835\udd3c (X<sup>r<\/sup>)<\/p>\n<p>Nous avons aussi le moment centr\u00e9 d\u2019ordre r d\u00e9fini, s\u2019il existe, par la formule suivante :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">c<sub>r<\/sub> = \ud835\udd3c([X-\ud835\udd3c(X)]<sup>r<\/sup>)<\/p>\n<h2>Moment d\u2019ordre un : la moyenne<\/h2>\n<h3>D\u00e9finition<\/h3>\n<p>La moyenne ou l\u2019esp\u00e9rance math\u00e9matique d\u2019une variable al\u00e9atoire est la valeur attendue en moyenne si la m\u00eame exp\u00e9rience al\u00e9atoire est r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e un grand nombre de fois. Elle correspond \u00e0 une moyenne pond\u00e9r\u00e9e par probabilit\u00e9 des valeurs que peut prendre cette variable, et elle est donc connue comme la moyenne th\u00e9orique ou la vraie moyenne.<\/p>\n<p>Si une variable X prend une infinit\u00e9 de valeurs x<sub>1<\/sub>, x<sub>2<\/sub>,\u2026 avec les probabilit\u00e9s p<sub>1<\/sub>, p<sub>2<\/sub>,\u2026, l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de X est d\u00e9finie comme :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u039c = m<sub>1<\/sub>= \ud835\udd3c(X) = \u2211<sup>\u221e<\/sup><sub>i=1<\/sub>p<sub>i<\/sub>x<sub>i<\/sub><\/p>\n<p>L\u2019esp\u00e9rance existe \u00e0 condition que cette somme soit absolument convergente.<\/p>\n<h3>Estimation statistique<\/h3>\n<p>La moyenne empirique est un estimateur de l\u2019esp\u00e9rance. Cet estimateur est sans biais, convergent (selon la loi des grands nombres), et distribu\u00e9 normalement (selon le th\u00e9or\u00e8me centrale limite).<\/p>\n<p>A partir d\u2019un \u00e9chantillon de variables al\u00e9atoire r\u00e9elles ind\u00e9pendantes et identiquement distribu\u00e9es (X<sub>1<\/sub>,&#8230;,X<sub>n<\/sub>), la moyenne empirique est donc :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">X\u0304 = (\u2211<sup>n<\/sup><sub>i=1<\/sub>x<sub>i<\/sub>)\/n<\/p>\n<p>Pour une loi normale centr\u00e9e r\u00e9duite (\u03bc = 0 et \u03c3 = 1), la moyenne est \u00e9gale \u00e0 z\u00e9ro.<\/p>\n<h2>Moment d\u2019ordre deux : la variance<\/h2>\n<h3>D\u00e9finition<\/h3>\n<p>La variance (moment d\u2019ordre deux) est une mesure de la dispersion des valeurs par rapport \u00e0 sa moyenne.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Var(X) = \u03c3 <sup>2<\/sup> = \ud835\udd3c[(X-\u03bc)<sup>2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>Elle exprime l\u2019esp\u00e9rance du carr\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e0 la moyenne th\u00e9orique. Elle est donc toujours positive.<\/p>\n<p>Pour une loi normale centr\u00e9e r\u00e9duite (\u03bc = 0 et \u03c3 = 1), la variance est \u00e9gale \u00e0 un.<\/p>\n<h3>Estimation statistique<\/h3>\n<p>A partir d\u2019un \u00e9chantillon (X<sub>1<\/sub>,&#8230;,X<sub>n<\/sub>), nous pouvons estimer la variance th\u00e9orique \u00e0 l\u2019aide de la variance empirique :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">S<sup>2<\/sup> = (\u2211<sup>n<\/sup><sub>i=1<\/sub>(x<sub>i<\/sub> &#8211; X\u0304)<sup>2<\/sup>)\/n<\/p>\n<p>Cependant, cet estimateur est biais\u00e9, parce que \ud835\udd3c(S<sup>2<\/sup>) = (n-1)\/(n) \u03c3<sup>2<\/sup>. Nous avons donc un estimateur non-biais\u00e9 \u0160<sup>2<\/sup> = (\u2211<sup>n<\/sup><sub>i=1<\/sub>(x<sub>i<\/sub> &#8211; X\u0304)<sup>2<\/sup>)\/(n-1)<\/p>\n<h3>Application en finance<\/h3>\n<p>La variance correspond \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 d\u2019un actif financier. Une variance \u00e9lev\u00e9e indique une dispersion plus importante, et ce n\u2019est pas favorable du regard des investisseurs rationnels qui pr\u00e9sentent de l\u2019aversion au risque. Ce concept est un param\u00e8tre clef dans la th\u00e9orie moderne du portefeuille de Markowitz.<\/p>\n<h2>Moment d\u2019ordre trois : la skewness<\/h2>\n<h3>D\u00e9finition<\/h3>\n<p>La skewness (coefficient d\u2019asym\u00e9trie en bon fran\u00e7ais) est le moment d\u2019ordre trois, d\u00e9fini comme ci-dessous :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u03b3<sub>1<\/sub> = \ud835\udd3c[((X-\u03bc)\/\u03c3)<sup>3<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>La skewness mesure l\u2019asym\u00e9trie de la distribution d\u2019une variable al\u00e9atoire. On distingue trois types de distributions selon que la distribution est asym\u00e9trique \u00e0 gauche, sym\u00e9trique, ou asym\u00e9trique \u00e0 droite. Un coefficient d\u2019asym\u00e9trie n\u00e9gatif indique une asym\u00e9trie \u00e0 gauche de la distribution, dont la queue gauche est plus importante que la queue droite. Un coefficient d\u2019asym\u00e9trie nul indique une sym\u00e9trie, les deux queues de la distribution \u00e9tant aussi importante l\u2019une que l\u2019autre. Enfin, un coefficient d\u2019asym\u00e9trie positif indique une asym\u00e9trie \u00e0 droite de la distribution, dont la queue droite est plus importante que la queue gauche.<\/p>\n<p>Pour une loi normale, la skewness est \u00e9gale \u00e0 z\u00e9ro car cette loi est sym\u00e9trique par rapport \u00e0 la moyenne.<\/p>\n<h2>Moment d\u2019ordre quatre : la kurtosis<\/h2>\n<h3>D\u00e9finition<\/h3>\n<p>La kurtosis (coefficient d\u2019acuit\u00e9 en bon fran\u00e7ais) est le moment d\u2019ordre quatre, d\u00e9fini par :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u03b2<sub>2<\/sub> = \ud835\udd3c[((X-\u03bc)\/\u03c3)<sup>4<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>Il d\u00e9crit l\u2019acuit\u00e9 d\u2019une distribution. Un coefficient d\u2019acuit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9 indique que la distribution est plut\u00f4t pointue en sa moyenne, et a des queues de distribution plus \u00e9paisses (fatter tails en anglais).<\/p>\n<p>Le coefficient d\u2019une loi normale est de 3, autrement dit, une distribution m\u00e9sokurtique. Au-del\u00e0 de ce seuil, une distribution est appel\u00e9e leptokurtique. Les distributions pr\u00e9sentes au march\u00e9 financier sont principalement leptokurtique, impliquant que les valeurs anormales et extr\u00eames sont plus fr\u00e9quentes que celles d\u2019une distribution gaussienne. Au contraire, un coefficient d\u2019acuit\u00e9 de moins de 3 indique une distribution platykurtique, dont les queues sont plus l\u00e9g\u00e8res.<\/p>\n<p>Pour une loi normale, la kurtosis est \u00e9gale \u00e0 trois.<\/p>\n<h2>Exemple : distribution des rentabilit\u00e9s d&#8217;un investissement dans l\u2019action Apple<\/h2>\n<p>Nous donnons maintenant un exemple en finance en \u00e9tudiant la distribution des rentabilit\u00e9s de l\u2019action Apple. Dans les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9es de Yahoo! Finance pour la p\u00e9riode allant de novembre 2017 \u00e0 novembre 2022, on se sert de la colonne du cours de cl\u00f4ture pour calculer les rentabilit\u00e9s journali\u00e8res. Nous utilisons des fonctions Excel afin de calculer les quatre premiers moments de la distribution empirique des rentabilit\u00e9s de l\u2019action Apple comme indiqu\u00e9 dans la table ci-dessous.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/img_3_moments_apple-1.png\" alt=\"Moments de l\u2019action Apple\" width=\"600\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Pour une distribution normale standard (centr\u00e9e r\u00e9duite), la moyenne est de zero, la variance est de 1, le skewness est de z\u00e9ro, et le kurtosis est de 3. \u00c0 comparaison avec une distribution normale, la distribution de rentabilit\u00e9 de l&#8217;action Apple a une moyenne l\u00e9g\u00e8rement positive. Cela signifie qu&#8217;\u00e0 long terme, la rentabilit\u00e9 de l&#8217;investissement dans cet actif est positive. Son skewness est n\u00e9gatif, indiquant l&#8217;asym\u00e9trie vers la gauche (les valeurs n\u00e9gatives). Son kurtosis est sup\u00e9rieur de 3, ce qui indique que les extr\u00e9mit\u00e9s sont plus \u00e9paisses que la distribution normale.<\/p>\n<h2>Fichier Excel pour calculer les moments<\/h2>\n<p>Vous pouvez t\u00e9l\u00e9charger le ficher Excel d\u2019analyse des moments de l\u2019action Apple en suivant le lien ci-dessous :<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Moments_de_la_distribution_2022_02_20_SZ.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" style=\"padding: 3px;\" title=\"Download Excel file\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/img_SimTrade_Btn_Download_Excel_file_US.png\" alt=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le fichier Excel pour analyser les moments de la distribution\" width=\"200\" align=\"center\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Autres article sur le blog SimTrade<\/h2>\n<p>\u25b6 Shengyu ZHENG <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/categories-de-mesures-de-risque\/\" target=\"_parent\" rel=\"noopener\">Cat\u00e9gories de mesures de risques<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u25b6 Shengyu ZHENG <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/mesures-de-risques\/\" target=\"_parent\" rel=\"noopener\">Mesures de risques<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Ressources<\/h2>\n<h3>Articles acad\u00e9miques<\/h3>\n<p>Robert C. Merton (1980) On estimating the expected return on the market: An exploratory investigation, <i>Journal of Financial Economics<\/i>, 8:4, 323-361.<\/p>\n<h3>Donn\u00e9es<\/h3>\n<p>Yahoo! Finance <a href=\"https:\/\/fr.finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/AAPL\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donn\u00e9es de march\u00e9 pour l&#8217;action Apple<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>A propos de l&#8217;auteur<\/h2>\n<p>Cet article a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9crit en janvier 2023 par <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/shengyu-zheng-39878810b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shengyu ZHENG<\/a> (ESSEC Business School, <i>Grande Ecole<\/i> Program &#8211; Master in Management, 2020-2023).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, Shengyu ZHENG (ESSEC Business School, Grande Ecole Program &#8211; Master in Management, 2020-2023) pr\u00e9sente les quatre premiers moments d\u2019une distribution statistique : la moyenne, la variance, la skewness et la kurtosis. Variable al\u00e9atoire Une variable al\u00e9atoire est une variable dont la valeur est d\u00e9termin\u00e9e d\u2019apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9alisation d\u2019un \u00e9v\u00e9nement al\u00e9atoire. Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, &#8230; <a title=\"Moments d&#8217;une distribution statistique\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/moments-distribution-statistique\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Moments d&#8217;une distribution statistique\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,10],"tags":[199,346,398,410,534,612],"class_list":["post-9682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","category-financial-techniques","tag-ecart-type","tag-kurtosis","tag-moments","tag-moyenne","tag-skewness","tag-variance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.3 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Moments 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