{"id":2417,"date":"2015-07-08T10:17:26","date_gmt":"2015-07-08T09:17:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=2417"},"modified":"2024-03-24T19:22:34","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:22:34","slug":"2417","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/","title":{"rendered":"La fin des haricots\u2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00ab \u2026 Et pourtant, je vais oser nous projeter dans l\u2019avenir… Au risque de me tromper, la troisi\u00e8me phase de la transformation exceptionnelle que conna\u00eet notre monde, la r\u00e9cession \u00e9conomique de la zone asiatique (comprenant la Chine), devrait nous toucher, selon toute vraisemblance, au plus tard vers 2014-15. Apr\u00e8s une premi\u00e8re phase am\u00e9ricaine (2008-09), et une seconde phase europ\u00e9enne (2011-12). Ainsi, comme en 1929-36: \u00ab The first wave killed the innocent, the second is killing the brave, and the third will kill the smart! \u00bb<\/p>\n

D\u2019ici l\u00e0, le savant \u00e9quilibre politique, \u00e9conomique et financier des USA aura \u00e9t\u00e9 profond\u00e9ment r\u00e9form\u00e9. De nouvelles technologies auront vu le jour. L\u2019Europe aura peut-\u00eatre sauv\u00e9 l\u2019intelligente invention qu\u2019est l\u2019Euro et d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d\u2019exister politiquement. Enfin, l\u2019Asie aura d\u00e9couvert que, l\u2019\u00e9volution technologique aidant, la d\u00e9mographie, le faible co\u00fbt du travail et le recours \u00e0 l\u2019exportation comme moteur de la croissance, ne constituent plus des avantages comp\u00e9titifs protecteurs.<\/p>\n

Au cours de la p\u00e9riode de gros temps \u00e9conomique \u00e0 venir, la cl\u00e9 du succ\u00e8s sera de survivre, de prot\u00e9ger votre famille, et de d\u00e9fendre votre capital – votre \u00e9pargne, fruit de votre travail et de l\u2019effort de celles et ceux qui vous ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9s -, objet de toutes les convoitises. De nombreuses cigales, n\u2019en doutez pas, frapperont bient\u00f4t, et bruyamment, \u00e0 votre porte ! \u00bb<\/p>\n

(Choffray, 2011, http:\/\/orbi.ulg.ac.be\/handle\/2268\/100581<\/a> )<\/p>\n

CQQQ : Guggenheim China Technology ETF, douze derniers mois\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A suivre attentivement : FXI, MCHI, GXC et autres CHIX, KWEB.<\/p>\n

Et, pour celles et ceux qui n\u2019ont pas froid aux yeux : FXP, YXI\u2026<\/p>\n

Note : cette Note de march\u00e9s<\/b> ne peut, ni ne doit, \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme formulant, ou sugg\u00e9rant, le moindre conseil d\u2019achat ou de vente de quelque produit financier que ce soit. Son seul objet est d\u2019\u00e9mettre un point de vue, et de le partager avec la communaut\u00e9 des investisseurs sceptiques, seuls responsables de leurs d\u00e9cisions.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray \u00ab \u2026 Et pourtant, je vais oser nous projeter dans l\u2019avenir… Au risque de me tromper, la troisi\u00e8me phase de la transformation exceptionnelle que conna\u00eet notre monde, la r\u00e9cession \u00e9conomique de la zone asiatique (comprenant la Chine), devrait nous toucher, selon toute vraisemblance, au plus tard vers 2014-15. Apr\u00e8s … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"yoast_head":"\nLa fin des haricots\u2026? - SimTrade blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La fin des haricots\u2026?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray \u00ab \u2026 Et pourtant, je vais oser nous projeter dans l\u2019avenir… Au risque de me tromper, la troisi\u00e8me phase de la transformation exceptionnelle que conna\u00eet notre monde, la r\u00e9cession \u00e9conomique de la zone asiatique (comprenant la Chine), devrait nous toucher, selon toute vraisemblance, au plus tard vers 2014-15. Apr\u00e8s ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SimTrade blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-07-08T09:17:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-03-24T19:22:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@simtrade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@simtrade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172\"},\"headline\":\"La fin des haricots\u2026?\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-07-08T09:17:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-03-24T19:22:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\"},\"wordCount\":354,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Contributors\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\",\"name\":\"La fin des haricots\u2026? - SimTrade blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-07-08T09:17:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-03-24T19:22:34+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"La fin des haricots\u2026?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\",\"name\":\"SimTrade blog\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\",\"name\":\"SimTrade\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg\",\"width\":940,\"height\":126,\"caption\":\"SimTrade\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/simtrade\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sim-trade\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172\",\"name\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/author\/jmchoffray\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"La fin des haricots\u2026? - SimTrade blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"La fin des haricots\u2026?","og_description":"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray \u00ab \u2026 Et pourtant, je vais oser nous projeter dans l\u2019avenir… Au risque de me tromper, la troisi\u00e8me phase de la transformation exceptionnelle que conna\u00eet notre monde, la r\u00e9cession \u00e9conomique de la zone asiatique (comprenant la Chine), devrait nous toucher, selon toute vraisemblance, au plus tard vers 2014-15. Apr\u00e8s ... Read more","og_url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/","og_site_name":"SimTrade blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/","article_published_time":"2015-07-08T09:17:26+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-03-24T19:22:34+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@simtrade","twitter_site":"@simtrade","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/"},"author":{"name":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172"},"headline":"La fin des haricots\u2026?","datePublished":"2015-07-08T09:17:26+00:00","dateModified":"2024-03-24T19:22:34+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/"},"wordCount":354,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png","articleSection":["Contributors"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/","name":"La fin des haricots\u2026? - SimTrade blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png","datePublished":"2015-07-08T09:17:26+00:00","dateModified":"2024-03-24T19:22:34+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/images_prod\/img_SimTrade_CQQQ.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/2417\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"La fin des haricots\u2026?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/","name":"SimTrade blog","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization","name":"SimTrade","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg","width":940,"height":126,"caption":"SimTrade"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/","https:\/\/x.com\/simtrade","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sim-trade"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172","name":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY"},"url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/author\/jmchoffray\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2417"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13696,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2417\/revisions\/13696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}