{"id":2402,"date":"2015-05-17T14:39:12","date_gmt":"2015-05-17T13:39:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=2402"},"modified":"2025-07-01T07:00:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T07:00:11","slug":"voyage-en-absurdie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/","title":{"rendered":"Voyage en absurdie\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Pascal assure que : \u00ab\u00a0Si le nez de Cl\u00e9op\u00e2tre avait \u00e9t\u00e9 diff\u00e9rent, la face du monde en e\u00fbt \u00e9t\u00e9 chang\u00e9e\u2026\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Le sentiment de Jean Dutourd, de l\u2019Acad\u00e9mie fran\u00e7aise, quant \u00e0 la comp\u00e9tence de ceux qui nous repr\u00e9sentent et nous gouvernent est connu de tous\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0La terre est peupl\u00e9e d\u2019une infinit\u00e9 d\u2019imb\u00e9ciles, lesquels choisissent dans leur sein quelques-uns d\u2019entre eux pour les conduire, ce qui explique la plupart des trag\u00e9dies ou \u00ab drames nationaux \u00bb dont l\u2019histoire des d\u00e9mocraties est jalonn\u00e9e.\u00a0\u00bb Mais\u2026, c\u2019est un homme sinc\u00e8re, qui m\u00e9rite certainement que l\u2019on respecte l\u2019exercice d\u2019uchronie auquel il se livre dans Le feld-mar\u00e9chal von Bonaparte (Paris, Flammarion, 1996).<\/p>\n

Si Louis XV n\u2019avait pas achet\u00e9 la Corse \u00e0 la R\u00e9publique de G\u00eanes en 1767\u2026 Si Louis XVI avait fait entrer le 13 juillet 1789 deux r\u00e9giments de cavalerie \u00e0 Paris\u2026 Si Napol\u00e9on, qui avait besoin d\u2019argent, n\u2019avait pas vendu aux am\u00e9ricains la Louisiane en 1803\u2026 \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019Histoire est faite de d\u00e9tails fortuits\u2026 Elle ne sait jamais o\u00f9 elle va au moment o\u00f9 elle s\u2019accomplit\u2026 Elle n\u2019a ni fatalit\u00e9 ni morale\u2026 Elle est le r\u00e9sultat de passions irr\u00e9fl\u00e9chies, d\u2019insuffisances, de d\u00e9fauts de caract\u00e8re, de mollesse, de sottise\u2026 Il est impossible de pr\u00e9voir la route qu\u2019elle prendra, ni m\u00eame, l\u2019ayant prise, o\u00f9 cette route la m\u00e8nera\u2026 Le plus grand g\u00e9nie n\u2019arrive \u00e0 rien sans l\u2019occasion, et la plus belle occasion sans un homme pour l\u2019exploiter n\u2019est qu\u2019une p\u00e9rip\u00e9tie\u2026\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Dans la vie des affaires, que serait aujourd’hui le monde si Bill Gates n\u2019avait pas abandonn\u00e9 ses \u00e9tudes \u00e0 Harvard\u2026 Si Steve Jobs n\u2019avait pas \u00e9t\u00e9 licenci\u00e9 d\u2019Apple\u2026 Si Ben Bernanke n\u2019avait pas \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9serve F\u00e9d\u00e9rale en 2008\u2026 Quels sont les \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui auraient pu se produire alors, et qui ne se produiront peut-\u00eatre jamais, mais dont on ne peut sous-estimer l\u2019\u00e9ventuel impact sur notre devenir s\u2019ils se produisaient demain ? \u00ab\u00a0Things that haven\u2019t happened are as interesting as those that have happened, because if there are \u201cKnown knowns\u201d \u2013 things we know that we know \u2013 there are also \u201cKnown unknowns\u201d \u2013 things we know that we don\u2019t know \u2013 and \u201cUnknown unknowns\u201d \u2013 things we don\u2019t know that we don\u2019t know!\u00a0\u00bb rappelle Donald Rumsfeld, Ministre de la D\u00e9fense des Presidents Gerald Ford et George W. Bush.<\/p>\n

En supposant qu\u2019il y en ait une\u2026, la cl\u00e9 du devenir n\u2019est donc que tr\u00e8s rarement dans les \u00e9v\u00e9nements pass\u00e9s, mais bien plut\u00f4t dans les \u00e9v\u00e9nements \u00ab\u00a0concurrents\u00a0\u00bb qui, ne s\u2019\u00e9tant pas produits, pourraient s\u2019ils se r\u00e9alisaient demain en affecter l\u2019accomplissement. L\u2019important est donc n\u00e9cessairement invisible, insensible, immat\u00e9riel\u2026 Dans le domaine de l\u2019investissement, et si l\u2019on veut efficacement cerner et calibrer l\u2019\u00e9ventail des possibles, il est essentiel d\u2019apprendre \u00e0 entendre ce que ne disent pas les dirigeants ; \u00e0 lire ce qui n\u2019est pas \u00e9crit dans les \u00e9tats financiers et les rapports d\u2019activit\u00e9 ; et \u00e0 voir ce qui n\u2019est pas explicit\u00e9 dans les modes d\u2019organisation op\u00e9rationnelle\u2026<\/p>\n

Ainsi, investir : c\u2019est, avant toute autre chose, penser l\u2019impensable, imaginer l\u2019impossible, et param\u00e9trer l\u2019improbable\u00a0!<\/p>\n

Note : cette Note de march\u00e9s ne peut, ni ne doit, \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme formulant, ou sugg\u00e9rant, le moindre conseil d\u2019achat ou de vente de quelque produit financier que ce soit. Son seul objet est d\u2019\u00e9mettre un point de vue, et de le partager avec la communaut\u00e9 des investisseurs sceptiques, seuls responsables de leurs d\u00e9cisions.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Pascal assure que : \u00ab\u00a0Si le nez de Cl\u00e9op\u00e2tre avait \u00e9t\u00e9 diff\u00e9rent, la face du monde en e\u00fbt \u00e9t\u00e9 chang\u00e9e\u2026\u00a0\u00bb Le sentiment de Jean Dutourd, de l\u2019Acad\u00e9mie fran\u00e7aise, quant \u00e0 la comp\u00e9tence de ceux qui nous repr\u00e9sentent et nous gouvernent est connu de tous\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0La terre est peupl\u00e9e d\u2019une … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"yoast_head":"\nVoyage en absurdie\u2026 - SimTrade blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Voyage en absurdie\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Pascal assure que : \u00ab\u00a0Si le nez de Cl\u00e9op\u00e2tre avait \u00e9t\u00e9 diff\u00e9rent, la face du monde en e\u00fbt \u00e9t\u00e9 chang\u00e9e\u2026\u00a0\u00bb Le sentiment de Jean Dutourd, de l\u2019Acad\u00e9mie fran\u00e7aise, quant \u00e0 la comp\u00e9tence de ceux qui nous repr\u00e9sentent et nous gouvernent est connu de tous\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0La terre est peupl\u00e9e d\u2019une ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SimTrade blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-05-17T13:39:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-01T07:00:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@simtrade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@simtrade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172\"},\"headline\":\"Voyage en absurdie\u2026\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-17T13:39:12+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-01T07:00:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\"},\"wordCount\":641,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Contributors\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\",\"name\":\"Voyage en absurdie\u2026 - SimTrade blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-17T13:39:12+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-01T07:00:11+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Voyage en absurdie\u2026\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\",\"name\":\"SimTrade blog\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\",\"name\":\"SimTrade\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg\",\"width\":940,\"height\":126,\"caption\":\"SimTrade\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/simtrade\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sim-trade\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172\",\"name\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/author\/jmchoffray\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Voyage en absurdie\u2026 - SimTrade blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Voyage en absurdie\u2026","og_description":"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Pascal assure que : \u00ab\u00a0Si le nez de Cl\u00e9op\u00e2tre avait \u00e9t\u00e9 diff\u00e9rent, la face du monde en e\u00fbt \u00e9t\u00e9 chang\u00e9e\u2026\u00a0\u00bb Le sentiment de Jean Dutourd, de l\u2019Acad\u00e9mie fran\u00e7aise, quant \u00e0 la comp\u00e9tence de ceux qui nous repr\u00e9sentent et nous gouvernent est connu de tous\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0La terre est peupl\u00e9e d\u2019une ... Read more","og_url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/","og_site_name":"SimTrade blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/","article_published_time":"2015-05-17T13:39:12+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-07-01T07:00:11+00:00","author":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@simtrade","twitter_site":"@simtrade","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/"},"author":{"name":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172"},"headline":"Voyage en absurdie\u2026","datePublished":"2015-05-17T13:39:12+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-01T07:00:11+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/"},"wordCount":641,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Contributors"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/","name":"Voyage en absurdie\u2026 - SimTrade blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website"},"datePublished":"2015-05-17T13:39:12+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-01T07:00:11+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/voyage-en-absurdie\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Voyage en absurdie\u2026"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/","name":"SimTrade blog","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization","name":"SimTrade","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg","width":940,"height":126,"caption":"SimTrade"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/","https:\/\/x.com\/simtrade","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sim-trade"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172","name":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY"},"url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/author\/jmchoffray\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2402"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13558,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2402\/revisions\/13558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}