{"id":2376,"date":"2015-04-23T18:57:33","date_gmt":"2015-04-23T17:57:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=2376"},"modified":"2024-03-24T19:25:11","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:25:11","slug":"le-roi-est-nu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/le-roi-est-nu\/","title":{"rendered":"Le roi est nu\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: large;\">Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/orbi.uliege.be\/profile?uid=p000682\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"padding: 5px;\" title=\"\" src=\"\nhttps:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/img_SimTrade_Photo_Jean_Marie_Choffray.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"133\" height=\"176\" align=\"right\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>On ne peut qu\u2019\u00eatre surpris par le Blog [1] de Ben Bernanke, ancien pr\u00e9sident de la banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine et nouveau conseiller du Hedge Fund Citadel Investment Group, lorsqu\u2019il \u00e9voque son incompr\u00e9hension face \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution r\u00e9cente du taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux \u00e0 dix ans. Le roi serait-il nu ?<\/p>\n<p>Pour m\u00e9moire, le taux des emprunts d\u2019Etat \u00e0 dix ans a chut\u00e9 aux Etats-Unis de 3 pour cent \u00e0 la fin 2013, \u00e0 2,5 pour cent au cours de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2014, pour atteindre r\u00e9cemment de l\u2019ordre de 1,9 pour cent. Une \u00e9volution similaire est observable dans les principaux pays industrialis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>La fin du programme d\u2019Assouplissement Quantitatif (QE, Quantitative Easing) de la Federal Reserve \u00e9tant acquise, une telle \u00e9volution surprend l\u2019observateur aguerri, dont, semblerait-il, Ben Bernanke. Cherchez donc l\u2019erreur ? Parmi les explications envisageables, dans un environnement mon\u00e9taire particuli\u00e8rement accommodant : la r\u00e9percussion du programme de QE mis en place par la banque centrale europ\u00e9enne ; l\u2019anticipation d\u2019une croissance \u00e9conomique atone, que sugg\u00e8re \u00e9galement la chute du cours du p\u00e9trole ; l\u2019impact des nouvelles normes et r\u00e9glementations mises en place en mati\u00e8re de couverture des risques au sein des institutions financi\u00e8res ; enfin\u2026, l\u2019acceptation par les intervenants et op\u00e9rateurs de march\u00e9 de l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u00e9flationniste. Dans ce cas, exprim\u00e9s en termes r\u00e9els, les remboursements d\u2019une dette souveraine seraient \u00ab m\u00e9caniquement \u00bb favorables au pr\u00eateur, en dehors de tout int\u00e9r\u00eat\u2026 A chacun son choix !<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019important, me semble-t-il, est que la politique mon\u00e9taire actuelle para\u00eet avoir d\u00e9finitivement atteint \u2013 peut-\u00eatre m\u00eame d\u00e9pass\u00e9 ? \u2013, ses limites, et que les march\u00e9s aient repris en mains leur destin\u00e9e et leur responsabilit\u00e9 premi\u00e8re en mati\u00e8re de fixation du \u00ab prix \u00bb du risque. Ainsi, et \u00e0 moins qu\u2019ils ne se trompent, ils nous indiquent clairement qu\u2019une croissance \u00e9conomique future est, en l\u2019\u00e9tat actuel des choses, un r\u00eave \u00ab abracadabresque \u00bb&#8230; Dans la derni\u00e8re ligne droite conduisant \u00e0 la prochaine \u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine, il est donc vraisemblable que l\u2019investissement public \u2013 et\/ou priv\u00e9 \u2013 soit soutenu au travers de diverses mesures fiscales. Evitant, on peut l\u2019esp\u00e9rer, la radicalit\u00e9 de la solution mise en place fin des ann\u00e9es trente\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Quant au \u00ab Short of a Lifetime \u00bb de Bill Gross [2], qui nous invite \u00e0 vendre \u00e0 d\u00e9couvert les emprunts d\u2019Etat allemands (Bunds) \u00e0 dix ans \u2013 qui g\u00e9n\u00e8rent actuellement de l\u2019ordre de 0,1 pour cent \u2013, c\u2019est, sans doute, un pari risqu\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme. Je crains qu\u2019il ne vous faille attendre quelque temps avant de pouvoir d\u00e9ployer avec bonheur certains ETF inverses : TBX, TBF, PST et autres TBT, par exemple\u2026<\/p>\n<p>[1] http:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blogs\/ben-bernanke\/posts\/2015\/04\/13-interest-rate-term-premiums<br \/>\n[2] http:\/\/www.bloombergview.com\/articles\/2015-04-22\/bill-gross-s-short-of-a-lifetime-would-mean-armageddon<\/p>\n<p>Note : <em>cette Note de march\u00e9s ne peut, ni ne doit, \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme formulant, ou sugg\u00e9rant, le moindre conseil d\u2019achat ou de vente de quelque produit financier que ce soit. Son seul objet est d\u2019\u00e9mettre un point de vue, et de le partager avec la communaut\u00e9 des investisseurs sceptiques, seuls responsables de leurs d\u00e9cisions.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray On ne peut qu\u2019\u00eatre surpris par le Blog [1] de Ben Bernanke, ancien pr\u00e9sident de la banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine et nouveau conseiller du Hedge Fund Citadel Investment Group, lorsqu\u2019il \u00e9voque son incompr\u00e9hension face \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution r\u00e9cente du taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux \u00e0 dix ans. Le roi serait-il nu &#8230; <a title=\"Le roi est nu\u2026\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/le-roi-est-nu\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Le roi est nu\u2026\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.3 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le roi est nu\u2026 - SimTrade blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/le-roi-est-nu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le roi est nu\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray On ne peut qu\u2019\u00eatre surpris par le Blog [1] de Ben Bernanke, ancien pr\u00e9sident de la banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine et nouveau conseiller du Hedge Fund Citadel Investment Group, lorsqu\u2019il \u00e9voque son incompr\u00e9hension face \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution r\u00e9cente du taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux \u00e0 dix ans. 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