{"id":2374,"date":"2015-04-08T15:55:42","date_gmt":"2015-04-08T14:55:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=2374"},"modified":"2024-03-24T19:25:31","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:25:31","slug":"bonjour-realite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/bonjour-realite\/","title":{"rendered":"Bonjour r\u00e9alit\u00e9\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Soyons honn\u00eates. La position de \u00ab spectateur \u00bb est souvent plus confortable que celle d\u2019\u00ab acteur \u00bb\u2026 M\u00eame si, bien \u00e9videmment, il n\u2019y aurait pas beaucoup d\u2019acteurs sans spectateurs ! Cette observation, me semble-t-il, est aussi pertinente pour la com\u00e9die \u00e0 ciel num\u00e9rique que constitue le \u00ab petit monde \u00bb de l\u2019investissement\u2026 C\u2019est donc avec d\u00e9f\u00e9rence, mais un peu de tristesse aussi, que je partage avec vous mes derni\u00e8res d\u00e9couvertes quant \u00e0 la performance r\u00e9elle de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Berkshire Hathaway Inc., holding financi\u00e8re et industrielle de l\u2019investisseur l\u00e9gendaire dont je vous ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 parl\u00e9 (Voir mes Notes de march\u00e9s des 11\/07\/2014 et 01\/03\/2015).<\/p>\n

La plus r\u00e9cente des \u00ab Letters to Berkshire Shareholders \u00bb disponible sur Internet reproduit l\u2019\u00e9volution de la performance de cette entreprise au cours des cinquante derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es \u2013 au niveau des fonds propres (In Per-Share Book Value) et de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re (In Per-Share Market Value) \u2013, ainsi que l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019Indice Standard & Poor 500 (In S&P 500 with Dividends Included). Apr\u00e8s quelque trituration \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019Excel, et sauf erreur de ma part, la figure suivante donne l\u2019\u00e9volution du taux de croissance \u2013 calcul\u00e9 sur les cinq derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es et exprim\u00e9 en termes relatifs par rapport au propre taux de croissance du S&P500 \u2013, des deux mesures de la performance retenues.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

Quatre observations, brutes de forme\u2026<\/p>\n

– Quel que soit le crit\u00e8re consid\u00e9r\u00e9, l\u2019\u00e9volution de la performance est baissi\u00e8re depuis de nombreuses ann\u00e9es (\u00ab Rendements d\u00e9croissants ?\u00bb, serait-on tent\u00e9 de penser)\u2026
\n– Cette performance, particuli\u00e8rement au cours de la p\u00e9riode la plus r\u00e9cente, tend \u00e0 se confondre avec celle du march\u00e9 (S&P500)\u2026 (Encore et toujours Barton Malkiel et son c\u00e9l\u00e8bre Happy monkey !)
\n– Dans le cas pr\u00e9cis, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se selon laquelle \u00ab The ability to invest improves with age \u00bb ne semble objectivement pas \u00eatre valid\u00e9e\u2026
\n– En l\u2019absence d\u2019un sursaut de performance dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir, le march\u00e9, qui ne brille gu\u00e8re par sa fid\u00e9lit\u00e9, pourrait bien devenir r\u00e9ceptif \u00e0 une mise en valeur alternative des actifs d\u00e9tenus\u2026<\/p>\n

Voilez la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 des choses\u2026 elle appara\u00eetra le bon jour !<\/p>\n

Note : cette Note de march\u00e9s ne peut, ni ne doit, \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme formulant, ou sugg\u00e9rant, le moindre conseil d\u2019achat ou de vente de quelque produit financier que ce soit. Son seul objet est d\u2019\u00e9mettre un point de vue, et de le partager avec la communaut\u00e9 des investisseurs sceptiques, seuls responsables de leurs d\u00e9cisions.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Soyons honn\u00eates. La position de \u00ab spectateur \u00bb est souvent plus confortable que celle d\u2019\u00ab acteur \u00bb\u2026 M\u00eame si, bien \u00e9videmment, il n\u2019y aurait pas beaucoup d\u2019acteurs sans spectateurs ! Cette observation, me semble-t-il, est aussi pertinente pour la com\u00e9die \u00e0 ciel num\u00e9rique que constitue le \u00ab petit monde … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"yoast_head":"\nBonjour r\u00e9alit\u00e9\u2026 - SimTrade blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/bonjour-realite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bonjour r\u00e9alit\u00e9\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Soyons honn\u00eates. 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