{"id":2334,"date":"2015-03-03T16:57:07","date_gmt":"2015-03-03T15:57:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=2334"},"modified":"2024-03-24T19:26:53","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:26:53","slug":"trappe-illusions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/","title":{"rendered":"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Le climat s\u2019y pr\u00eatant, ainsi que mon manque d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour l\u2019activit\u00e9 sportive \u2013 \u00ab Exercise, exercise, never any exercise !<\/em> \u00bb \u2013, je me suis mis \u00e0 r\u00eaver \u00e0 une solution \u00e0 la situation \u00e9conomique exceptionnelle que nous connaissons. Et, pour me mettre en condition, j\u2019ai relu l\u2019excellent article publi\u00e9 par Paul Krugman en\u2026 1998 [1]. Ce texte explore la \u00ab Trappe \u00e0 liquidit\u00e9<\/em> \u00bb ch\u00e8re \u00e0 Keynes et \u00e0 Hicks. Il cherche \u00e0 en comprendre les causes. A en anticiper les cons\u00e9quences. Et, surtout, \u00e0 proposer des solutions.<\/p>\n

\u201c A liquidity trap is a condition in which monetary policy loses its grip because the nominal interest rate is essentially zero\u2026 The quantity of money becomes irrelevant because money and bonds are viewed by the private sector as perfect substitutes\u2026 It can raise neither output nor prices, and indeed seems powerless to prevent deflationary pressures\u2026 The problem is that the markets believe that the central bank will target price stability, given the chance, and hence that any current monetary expansion is merely transitory… Under such conditions, an increase in high-powered money will have little effect on broad aggregates, and may even lead to a decline in bank deposits and a larger decline in bank credit\u2026. The traditional view that monetary policy is ineffective, and that fiscal expansion is the only way out, must be qualified\u2026 The economy needs inflation, because it needs a negative real interest rate; the deflationary pressures actually being manifested represent the economy trying to generate that needed inflation by reducing current prices compared with the future price level. The only way to avoid lowering the current level is to raise the expected future level\u2026 Hence, monetary policy will in fact be effective if the central bank can credibly promise to be irresponsible\u2026 and creates expectations of inflation\u2026<\/strong><\/em> \u201d<\/p>\n

La grande d\u00e9pression (1929-1939) est l\u2019exemple classique de la \u00ab Trappe \u00e0 liquidit\u00e9<\/em> \u00bb. De m\u00eame, sans doute, que la situation japonaise en 1993-1997. Quant \u00e0 la situation actuelle de l\u2019Europe, \u00e0 vous de d\u00e9cider ! Mais, Paul Krugman semble avoir raison, malgr\u00e9 les critiques suscit\u00e9es par son analyse. Nous ne sortirons pas de la situation pr\u00e9sente sans avoir recours \u00e0 une strat\u00e9gie mixant intelligemment la dimension fiscale, et donc politique \u2013 r\u00e9duction des taxes et\/ou investissements d\u2019avenir \u2013, et mon\u00e9taire. Dans ce dernier cas, il s\u2019agira de convaincre les acteurs du secteur priv\u00e9 que l\u2019objectif d\u2019inflation n\u2019est pas qu\u2019un v\u0153u pieux !<\/p>\n

Pour l\u2019investisseur, cet environnement est somme toute favorable. Il va falloir rechercher les sources de la croissance rentable dans un environnement d\u00e9flationniste\u2026 Juger les responsables politiques sur la base de leur courage \u00e0 prendre des d\u00e9cisions allant \u00e0 l\u2019encontre des valeurs pour lesquelles ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9lus\u2026 Evaluer la coh\u00e9rence des banques centrales au cours du marathon, et non du sprint, \u00e0 venir\u2026 Enfin, cr\u00e9er un climat de confiance propice \u00e0 l\u2019entreprise priv\u00e9e et \u00e0 l\u2019investissement long\u2026<\/p>\n

La trappe \u00e0 liquidit\u00e9<\/em> ne serait-elle pas plut\u00f4t une trappe \u00e0 illusions<\/em> ?<\/p>\n

Note : cette Note de march\u00e9s ne peut, ni ne doit, \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme formulant, ou sugg\u00e9rant, le moindre conseil d\u2019achat ou de vente de quelque produit financier que ce soit. Son seul objet est d\u2019\u00e9mettre un point de vue, et de le partager avec la communaut\u00e9 des investisseurs sceptiques, seuls responsables de leurs d\u00e9cisions.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Le climat s\u2019y pr\u00eatant, ainsi que mon manque d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour l\u2019activit\u00e9 sportive \u2013 \u00ab Exercise, exercise, never any exercise ! \u00bb \u2013, je me suis mis \u00e0 r\u00eaver \u00e0 une solution \u00e0 la situation \u00e9conomique exceptionnelle que nous connaissons. Et, pour me mettre en condition, j\u2019ai relu l\u2019excellent article … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"yoast_head":"\nLa trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026 - SimTrade blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Le climat s\u2019y pr\u00eatant, ainsi que mon manque d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour l\u2019activit\u00e9 sportive \u2013 \u00ab Exercise, exercise, never any exercise ! \u00bb \u2013, je me suis mis \u00e0 r\u00eaver \u00e0 une solution \u00e0 la situation \u00e9conomique exceptionnelle que nous connaissons. Et, pour me mettre en condition, j\u2019ai relu l\u2019excellent article ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SimTrade blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-03-03T15:57:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-03-24T19:26:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@simtrade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@simtrade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172\"},\"headline\":\"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-03-03T15:57:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-03-24T19:26:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\"},\"wordCount\":568,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Contributors\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\",\"name\":\"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026 - SimTrade blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-03-03T15:57:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-03-24T19:26:53+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\",\"name\":\"SimTrade blog\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization\",\"name\":\"SimTrade\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg\",\"width\":940,\"height\":126,\"caption\":\"SimTrade\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/simtrade\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sim-trade\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172\",\"name\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/author\/jmchoffray\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026 - SimTrade blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026","og_description":"Note de march\u00e9s de Jean-Marie Choffray Le climat s\u2019y pr\u00eatant, ainsi que mon manque d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour l\u2019activit\u00e9 sportive \u2013 \u00ab Exercise, exercise, never any exercise ! \u00bb \u2013, je me suis mis \u00e0 r\u00eaver \u00e0 une solution \u00e0 la situation \u00e9conomique exceptionnelle que nous connaissons. Et, pour me mettre en condition, j\u2019ai relu l\u2019excellent article ... Read more","og_url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/","og_site_name":"SimTrade blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/","article_published_time":"2015-03-03T15:57:07+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-03-24T19:26:53+00:00","author":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@simtrade","twitter_site":"@simtrade","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/"},"author":{"name":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172"},"headline":"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026","datePublished":"2015-03-03T15:57:07+00:00","dateModified":"2024-03-24T19:26:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/"},"wordCount":568,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Contributors"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/","name":"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026 - SimTrade blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website"},"datePublished":"2015-03-03T15:57:07+00:00","dateModified":"2024-03-24T19:26:53+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/trappe-illusions\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"La trappe \u00e0 illusions\u2026"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/","name":"SimTrade blog","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#organization","name":"SimTrade","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/cropped-cropped-Banner_blog_SimTrade2.jpg","width":940,"height":126,"caption":"SimTrade"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/fr-fr.facebook.com\/simtrade.fr\/","https:\/\/x.com\/simtrade","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/sim-trade"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/#\/schema\/person\/0efd49d85f2a8ff6f26f386156cb2172","name":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0087e00fa3300e136276c540f23046823f2a800c5d7b9f94b7cbcacdec0e8e8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jean-Marie CHOFFRAY"},"url":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/author\/jmchoffray\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2334"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13571,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2334\/revisions\/13571"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}