{"id":2169,"date":"2014-10-15T16:25:18","date_gmt":"2014-10-15T15:25:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/?p=2169"},"modified":"2014-10-15T16:25:18","modified_gmt":"2014-10-15T15:25:18","slug":"evenements-extremes-finance-cfa-france-society","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/evenements-extremes-finance-cfa-france-society\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9sentation par Prof. Longin sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance devant la CFA Society France"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fran\u00e7ois Longin, Professeur de finance \u00e0 l’ESSEC Business School, a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 devant les membres de la CFA Society France<\/a> ses travaux de recherche sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance.<\/p>\n

Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance ont tendance \u00e0 appara\u00eetre de fa\u00e7on r\u00e9currente. Citons le krach boursier du 19 octobre 1987 (une baisse de 20% de la Bourse en une seule journ\u00e9e !), le bouleversement du Syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire europ\u00e9en en 1992, l’effondrement du march\u00e9 obligataire en f\u00e9vrier 1994, la crise des pays \u00e9mergents en 1997-98, l’\u00e9clatement de la bulle internet en 2000 et la r\u00e9cente crise financi\u00e8re de 2007-2008.<\/p>\n

Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames sont un sujet central en finance, en particulier en mati\u00e8re de gestion des risques, gestion d’actifs et r\u00e9gulation. La performance d’une institution financi\u00e8re en trading sur une ann\u00e9e est souvent le r\u00e9sultat de quelques jours exceptionnels de trading. Concern\u00e9s par la protection du syst\u00e8me financier contre des \u00e9v\u00e9nements catastrophiques, les r\u00e9gulateurs s’int\u00e9ressent aussi aux crises qui peuvent \u00eatre source de risque syst\u00e9mique (effet domino). Comme nous l’avons v\u00e9cu avec la crise actuelle, les probl\u00e8mes rencontr\u00e9s sur les march\u00e9s financiers et dans le secteur bancaire peuvent se propager au monde r\u00e9el affectant les entreprises et chacun d’entre nous au final.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a> Voir la pr\u00e9sentation<\/i><\/a>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Trois approches ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es :<\/p>\n

L’approche statistique<\/strong><\/p>\n

L’approche historique repose sur la th\u00e9orie des valeurs extr\u00eames. Cette th\u00e9orie permet de conna\u00eetre la distribution statistique des valeurs extr\u00eames d’un processus – le minimum et le maximum. En finance, il s’agit de la rentabilit\u00e9 la plus basse et de la rentabilit\u00e9 la plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e d’une position de march\u00e9 sur une p\u00e9riode donn\u00e9e. La th\u00e9orie montre que les extr\u00eames suivent une loi de Weibull, de Gumbel ou de Fr\u00e9chet selon le poids des queues de distribution.<\/p>\n

Cette th\u00e9orie permet de nombreuses applications en finance : value at risk et stress testing, gestion du risque de d\u00e9faut sur les march\u00e9s d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, ma\u00eetrise des gestions de portefeuille dans des conditions extr\u00eames de march\u00e9s, choix de mod\u00e9lisation pour le prix des actifs…<\/p>\n

L’approche historique<\/strong><\/p>\n

De nombreux historiens se sont int\u00e9ress\u00e9s aux crises financi\u00e8res. Dans son roman L’argent<\/em>, Zola s’est inspir\u00e9 du krach de l’Union G\u00e9n\u00e9rale en 1881-82. Dans son ouvrage L’\u00e9conomie de la R\u00e9volution fran\u00e7aise<\/em>, Florin Aftalion a analys\u00e9 les crises financi\u00e8res sous la R\u00e9volution fran\u00e7aise. Galbraith s’est int\u00e9ress\u00e9 \u00e0 la crise de 1929 aux Etats-Unis.<\/p>\n

Dans son ouvrage Manias, panics and crashes<\/em>, Kindleberger met en \u00e9vidence l’anatomie des crises qui tendent \u00e0 suivre cinq \u00e9tapes : displacement<\/em>, boom<\/em>, euphoria<\/em>, crisis<\/em> et repulsion<\/em>.<\/p>\n

L’approche par simulation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les approches statistique et historique d\u00e9montrent une certaine r\u00e9gularit\u00e9 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance mais pr\u00e9sentent aussi des limites. L’approche statistique ne permet de comprendre les m\u00e9canismes derri\u00e8re les donn\u00e9es. L’approche historique, quant \u00e0 elle, reste qualitative. Une approche alternative, celle de l’\u00e9conomie exp\u00e9rimentale, consiste \u00e0 utiliser des simulations. C’est l’approche de SimTrade pour comprendre en profondeur le comportement des investisseurs et les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de march\u00e9 comme les krachs boursiers.<\/p>\n

Sur SimTrade, vous trouverez la simulation Tulipmania<\/a> qui vous permettra de revivre l’une des premi\u00e8res crises financi\u00e8res. La simulation Tulipmania s\u2019int\u00e9resse au concept de bulles sp\u00e9culatives sur les march\u00e9s financiers. Rationalit\u00e9 ou exub\u00e9rance : que penser des march\u00e9s ?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Fran\u00e7ois Longin, Professeur de finance \u00e0 l’ESSEC Business School, a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 devant les membres de la CFA Society France ses travaux de recherche sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance. Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance ont tendance \u00e0 appara\u00eetre de fa\u00e7on r\u00e9currente. Citons le krach boursier du 19 octobre 1987 (une baisse de 20% de … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-evenements"],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9sentation par Prof. Longin sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance devant la CFA Society France - SimTrade blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simtrade.fr\/blog_simtrade\/evenements-extremes-finance-cfa-france-society\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9sentation par Prof. Longin sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance devant la CFA Society France\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Fran\u00e7ois Longin, Professeur de finance \u00e0 l’ESSEC Business School, a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 devant les membres de la CFA Society France ses travaux de recherche sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames en finance. 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